Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
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swish
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Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/advanced-stats-celtics-analytics-leaders
BOSTON – The use of analytics has become an ingrained part of most NBA franchises and the Celtics are no exception.
In fact, the Celtics have been on the forefront of its use as a means of better evaluating both current and potential talent with the goal being to increase the team’s win total.
The Celtics are not where they would want to be record-wise, but there is no mistaking the team’s steady improvement under third-year coach Brad Stevens.
After 15 games, the Celtics (8-7) are off to their best start under Stevens.
Several contributing factors have led to Boston’s improved play, including the gathering and implementation of analytics data.
Here’s a look at the Celtics’ analytics leaders this season in five core areas, based on players averaging at least 10 minutes per game (sorry, Jordan Mickey).
OFFENSIVE RATING (Points per 100 possessions)
Avery Bradley: 104.5
Isaiah Thomas: 103.8
Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger: 101.8
DEFENSIVE RATING (Points allowed per 100 possessions)
Kelly Olynyk: 89.3
Evan Turner: 91.2
Jonas Jerebko: 91.6
PACE (Possessions per 48 minutes)
Kelly Olynyk: 103.53
Avery Bradley: 102.37
Evan Turner: 102.11
EFFECTIVE FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
(Adjusted field goal percentage where 3-pointers worth 1.5 times more than 2s)
Avery Bradley: .547
R.J. Hunter: .515
Isaiah Thomas: .492
REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE
(Percentage total rebounds player gets while on the court)
Jared Sullinger: .201
David Lee: .139
Amir Johnson: 13.0
BOSTON – The use of analytics has become an ingrained part of most NBA franchises and the Celtics are no exception.
In fact, the Celtics have been on the forefront of its use as a means of better evaluating both current and potential talent with the goal being to increase the team’s win total.
The Celtics are not where they would want to be record-wise, but there is no mistaking the team’s steady improvement under third-year coach Brad Stevens.
After 15 games, the Celtics (8-7) are off to their best start under Stevens.
Several contributing factors have led to Boston’s improved play, including the gathering and implementation of analytics data.
Here’s a look at the Celtics’ analytics leaders this season in five core areas, based on players averaging at least 10 minutes per game (sorry, Jordan Mickey).
OFFENSIVE RATING (Points per 100 possessions)
Avery Bradley: 104.5
Isaiah Thomas: 103.8
Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger: 101.8
DEFENSIVE RATING (Points allowed per 100 possessions)
Kelly Olynyk: 89.3
Evan Turner: 91.2
Jonas Jerebko: 91.6
PACE (Possessions per 48 minutes)
Kelly Olynyk: 103.53
Avery Bradley: 102.37
Evan Turner: 102.11
EFFECTIVE FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
(Adjusted field goal percentage where 3-pointers worth 1.5 times more than 2s)
Avery Bradley: .547
R.J. Hunter: .515
Isaiah Thomas: .492
REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE
(Percentage total rebounds player gets while on the court)
Jared Sullinger: .201
David Lee: .139
Amir Johnson: 13.0
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gyso- Posts : 21872
Join date : 2009-10-13
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
GYSO as a non statistical person myself, can you or someone give their take on the validity and/or significance of Kelly leading the team in the defensive rating category?
With all the different opinions on his defensive abilities and the variance between the "eye test" and his statistical ratings I think it may prove enlightening for many of us. (I'm hoping to not stir the pot back up that has settled recently but rather elicit a better understanding of how we look at players)
Also wondering about him leading the PACE category........
With all the different opinions on his defensive abilities and the variance between the "eye test" and his statistical ratings I think it may prove enlightening for many of us. (I'm hoping to not stir the pot back up that has settled recently but rather elicit a better understanding of how we look at players)
Also wondering about him leading the PACE category........
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bobc33- Posts : 13522
Join date : 2009-10-16
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
BobC
Its very much a bogus rating. And the reason is not that complicated. Like plus or minus ratings its based on how a player along with his other 4 team mates perform while playing as a unit while on the floor. In the case of Olynyk he spends the vast amount of his time on the floor playing against the other teams non starters and because of the Celtics superior bench strength he and his so called 2nd stringers put up bigger numbers over the other teams scrubs. To have any real meaning it must be determined who the figures are accomplished against. In fact when comparing stats its always a good idea to determine the talent level of the opposition.
swish
Its very much a bogus rating. And the reason is not that complicated. Like plus or minus ratings its based on how a player along with his other 4 team mates perform while playing as a unit while on the floor. In the case of Olynyk he spends the vast amount of his time on the floor playing against the other teams non starters and because of the Celtics superior bench strength he and his so called 2nd stringers put up bigger numbers over the other teams scrubs. To have any real meaning it must be determined who the figures are accomplished against. In fact when comparing stats its always a good idea to determine the talent level of the opposition.
swish
swish- Posts : 3147
Join date : 2009-10-16
Age : 91
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
Bob,
Here are some links for advanced statistics. Definitions, formulas, etc. Something to read when you have problems sleeping! (LOL)
Swish is right in that you have to put these stats in context. Starters vs. bench players, 30+ minute/game players vs. 18-20 mpg players, etc.
During a recent game, Mike and Tommy mentioned that Olynyk was leading the league in defensive rating. I was hoping that they would discuss it a little, but they did not. I really would have liked to hear what they thought about the stat and Olynyk's inclusion and place on the list.
What it means to me? To me, it mean:
1. We have a wicked good bench when we are at full strength. (as Swish mentions)
2. Olynyk is one of the leaders on the bench
3. Olynyk is not as bad at defense as some like to say he is.
4. The "eye test" is important for prospective, but going in with pre-conceived notions leads many to only see what they want to see.
Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
Points per Possession Rating
http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/helpscrn/rtgs.html
APBRmetrics (wikipedia.org)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APBRmetrics
Basketball Analytics (Last Updated: Nov 16, 2015 11:33AM EST)
http://support.krossover.com/customer/portal/articles/1281464-basketball-analytics
Basketball Prospectus glossary terms
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/glossary.php
gyso
Here are some links for advanced statistics. Definitions, formulas, etc. Something to read when you have problems sleeping! (LOL)
Swish is right in that you have to put these stats in context. Starters vs. bench players, 30+ minute/game players vs. 18-20 mpg players, etc.
During a recent game, Mike and Tommy mentioned that Olynyk was leading the league in defensive rating. I was hoping that they would discuss it a little, but they did not. I really would have liked to hear what they thought about the stat and Olynyk's inclusion and place on the list.
What it means to me? To me, it mean:
1. We have a wicked good bench when we are at full strength. (as Swish mentions)
2. Olynyk is one of the leaders on the bench
3. Olynyk is not as bad at defense as some like to say he is.
4. The "eye test" is important for prospective, but going in with pre-conceived notions leads many to only see what they want to see.
Calculating Individual Offensive and Defensive Ratings
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
Points per Possession Rating
http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/helpscrn/rtgs.html
APBRmetrics (wikipedia.org)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APBRmetrics
Basketball Analytics (Last Updated: Nov 16, 2015 11:33AM EST)
http://support.krossover.com/customer/portal/articles/1281464-basketball-analytics
Basketball Prospectus glossary terms
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/glossary.php
gyso
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gyso- Posts : 21872
Join date : 2009-10-13
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
BobC
As to what pace represents. I suspect that most people view pace as having something to do with speed of foot. But that's not the case with basketballs pace stat. Pace in basketball stats is nothing more than a reflection of shot frequency. Back in the 1950's-60's the pace figures were very high simply because teams elected to shoot with fewer seconds having elapsed on the shot clock and nothing whatsoever to do with the foot speed of the players. In human and horse racing a blistering early pace would mean that the early foot speed of the front runners was abnormally fast.
swish
As to what pace represents. I suspect that most people view pace as having something to do with speed of foot. But that's not the case with basketballs pace stat. Pace in basketball stats is nothing more than a reflection of shot frequency. Back in the 1950's-60's the pace figures were very high simply because teams elected to shoot with fewer seconds having elapsed on the shot clock and nothing whatsoever to do with the foot speed of the players. In human and horse racing a blistering early pace would mean that the early foot speed of the front runners was abnormally fast.
swish
Last edited by swish on Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:28 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : minor correction)
swish- Posts : 3147
Join date : 2009-10-16
Age : 91
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
When I read that Kelly leads in any kind of defensive category, and Bradley is atop any offensive statistic, my first reaction is that I drank too much on Thanksgiving.
Then I realize we've only played 15 games.
Then again, I suppose, there is the possibility these two are making some progress.
I guess one more scotch wouldn't hurt.
Then I realize we've only played 15 games.
Then again, I suppose, there is the possibility these two are making some progress.
I guess one more scotch wouldn't hurt.
NYCelt- Posts : 10602
Join date : 2009-10-12
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
Ko sucks on defense. Screw the advanced stats. He cannot check a ham sandwich. I will continue to rely on the eye test.
Dboss
Dboss
dboss- Posts : 18636
Join date : 2009-11-01
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
gyso
" 4. The "eye test" is important for prospective, but going in with pre-conceived notions leads many to only see what they want to see."
Your right on target with your above statement gyso. A little bias in the system can go a long way towards distorting ones view of things. It always helps to be able to back up ones opinion with facts even though facts, can and should be, also open to debate.
swish
" 4. The "eye test" is important for prospective, but going in with pre-conceived notions leads many to only see what they want to see."
Your right on target with your above statement gyso. A little bias in the system can go a long way towards distorting ones view of things. It always helps to be able to back up ones opinion with facts even though facts, can and should be, also open to debate.
swish
swish- Posts : 3147
Join date : 2009-10-16
Age : 91
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
Kelly has a high BB IQ and that can always equate to solid play on both ends, IMO.
but he also has physical limitations that will never allow him to be an elite defender also.
I personally feel that Kelly HAS improved his play on the defensive end from his rookie year, though he is not the best defensive play on this team by far. IF we think of Kelly as a poor mans Nowitski, instead of an NBA center, it may help us see him for what he is/can be.
we all know that Bradley, Smart and Crowder are out top defenders (in some order or the other).
Amir is our best big man on the defensive end , no matter what the analytics say.
but he also has physical limitations that will never allow him to be an elite defender also.
I personally feel that Kelly HAS improved his play on the defensive end from his rookie year, though he is not the best defensive play on this team by far. IF we think of Kelly as a poor mans Nowitski, instead of an NBA center, it may help us see him for what he is/can be.
we all know that Bradley, Smart and Crowder are out top defenders (in some order or the other).
Amir is our best big man on the defensive end , no matter what the analytics say.
kdp59- Posts : 5707
Join date : 2014-01-05
Age : 64
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
kdp59 wrote:Kelly has a high BB IQ and that can always equate to solid play on both ends, IMO.
but he also has physical limitations that will never allow him to be an elite defender also.
I personally feel that Kelly HAS improved his play on the defensive end from his rookie year, though he is not the best defensive play on this team by far. IF we think of Kelly as a poor mans Nowitski, instead of an NBA center, it may help us see him for what he is/can be.
we all know that Bradley, Smart and Crowder are out top defenders (in some order or the other).
Amir is our best big man on the defensive end , no matter what the analytics say.
kdp59
"IF we think of Kelly as a poor mans Nowitski, instead of an NBA center, it may help us see him for what he is/can be"
Are you sure that you want to compare Kelly with Dirk ? At age 24 Dirk was a 2 time all star and racked up 39 minutes per game, 2p% of.493, 9.9 rebounds per game and 25.1 points per game. Right now Kelly is a really, really poor imitation. Someone better light a bonfire under his butt real soon If were going to think of Kelly as a Nowitzki type of player.
swish
swish- Posts : 3147
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Age : 91
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
make it a very poor mans Dirk then
kdp59- Posts : 5707
Join date : 2014-01-05
Age : 64
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
kdp59
"Very poor man's Dirk" is a rather vague description but I'll take it as a positive and hope that he starts to demonstrate what ever "Dirk" like talent he has on a more fequent basis. He's one of the younger Celtics that needs to step up big time if he hopes to be a major contributor in the Celtics near future. I sure hope he does.
swish
"Very poor man's Dirk" is a rather vague description but I'll take it as a positive and hope that he starts to demonstrate what ever "Dirk" like talent he has on a more fequent basis. He's one of the younger Celtics that needs to step up big time if he hopes to be a major contributor in the Celtics near future. I sure hope he does.
swish
swish- Posts : 3147
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Age : 91
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
Stats are for losers-Red Auerbach
Kelly's defense has improved, he still has limitations on who he can cover, as he is always on the weaker and smaller of the bigs, because with his weak rebounding ability combined with his strength limitations he would get killed in that match up. His high ratings just go to show me how useless some of these stats really are.
Kelly's defense has improved, he still has limitations on who he can cover, as he is always on the weaker and smaller of the bigs, because with his weak rebounding ability combined with his strength limitations he would get killed in that match up. His high ratings just go to show me how useless some of these stats really are.
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27195
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
dboss wrote:Ko sucks on defense. Screw the advanced stats. He cannot check a ham sandwich. I will continue to rely on the eye test.
Dboss
agreed and its very obvious
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27195
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
dboss wrote:Ko sucks on defense. Screw the advanced stats. He cannot check a ham sandwich. I will continue to rely on the eye test.
Dboss
"He cannot check a ham sandwich."
Easily the quote of the week.
NYCelt- Posts : 10602
Join date : 2009-10-12
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
LMAO!! I think he could do penut butter and jelly....
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27195
Join date : 2009-10-18
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
cow
Contrary to Red's statement,the reality is that stats can be very useful. However each stat should be evaluated to determine its validity in the context that it being used. For me the big test is always the level of competition that a given stat is achieved. Many times you have to dig for underlying reasons to help to evaluate a stat. Fans play the stats game both ways, not hesitating to use stats when it supports their opinion and in turn labeling facts as being unreliable to defend their view point.
swish
Contrary to Red's statement,the reality is that stats can be very useful. However each stat should be evaluated to determine its validity in the context that it being used. For me the big test is always the level of competition that a given stat is achieved. Many times you have to dig for underlying reasons to help to evaluate a stat. Fans play the stats game both ways, not hesitating to use stats when it supports their opinion and in turn labeling facts as being unreliable to defend their view point.
swish
swish- Posts : 3147
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Age : 91
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
I like KO.
I want him to come in the game and shoot the damn ball. His defense is improved over last year as is his more aggressive rebounding. But when an advanced stat indicates that he is the best defensive player out of 5 on the floor, it really makes those stats unreliable.
The main thing is this. DA traded up to get him and I do not see that he will ever be a starting quality 4/5 guy. Then here comes another 100 4/5 guys and KO's minutes go from 22 per game to 17. During the month of November he is shooting .379% from behind the arc. He can shoot the ball but he is only averaging 6.5 shots per game.
Brad needs to make sure that he gets more shots. Defensively He plays pretty good when they are in a zone but he is incapable of defending the p and r and his slowness of foot prevent him from rotating out to cover the perimeter. As Sam used to say all the time. "He has Heavy legs".
dboss
I want him to come in the game and shoot the damn ball. His defense is improved over last year as is his more aggressive rebounding. But when an advanced stat indicates that he is the best defensive player out of 5 on the floor, it really makes those stats unreliable.
The main thing is this. DA traded up to get him and I do not see that he will ever be a starting quality 4/5 guy. Then here comes another 100 4/5 guys and KO's minutes go from 22 per game to 17. During the month of November he is shooting .379% from behind the arc. He can shoot the ball but he is only averaging 6.5 shots per game.
Brad needs to make sure that he gets more shots. Defensively He plays pretty good when they are in a zone but he is incapable of defending the p and r and his slowness of foot prevent him from rotating out to cover the perimeter. As Sam used to say all the time. "He has Heavy legs".
dboss
dboss- Posts : 18636
Join date : 2009-11-01
Re: Advanced stats: Celtics analytics leaders
dboss he also has little to no ability to create his own shot, look at all the ways David Lee can score around the basket and at midrange, I never see KO do any of those things....and hes supposed to be an offensive player, I don't see it.
cowens/oldschool- Posts : 27195
Join date : 2009-10-18
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