The Trade Value Of Russell Westbrook

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The Trade Value Of Russell Westbrook Empty The Trade Value Of Russell Westbrook

Post by bobheckler Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:20 pm

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/242434/The-Trade-Value-Of-Russell-Westbrook



The Trade Value Of Russell Westbrook



BY MICHAEL PINA

JUN 27, 2016 8:14 PM


The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently embroiled in the most nerve wrecking two weeks since they became a franchise. Serge Ibaka is gone. Kevin Durant is ready to court five other organizations for his service next season.

It’s not a crisis just yet, but the sky definitely isn’t cloud free. If Durant leaves, there’s a good chance Russell Westbrook will follow his lead next summer. This possibility got me thinking: What is Westbrook’s trade value? What could he fetch in the final year of his contract if Durant signs elsewhere and Westbrook’s representation makes it clear through backdoor channels that he’s out next summer?

Can Sam Presti get a good deal? How much would teams around the league be willing to forfeit to grab a 27-year-old top-five player in the league in the the final year of his contract? They’d get his Bird Rights, sure, but they’d also be at risk to nibble on his brilliance for only one season.

Furthermore, is any of this conceivable at all, in any universe? Over the past five years, no organization has been more proactive than Oklahoma City. They swapped out James Harden for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and three picks that eventually became Steven Adams, Alex Abrines and Mitch McGary.

There were different factors at the time, such as Harden about to become a restricted free agent instead of unrestricted, him not being universally recognized as a top-10 player and Oklahoma’s fear of the luxury tax. But the unforeseen Ibaka deal at last week’s draft reemphasized just how bold Presti is.

The two key differences with that trade are: 1) Westbrook plays like an overly caffeinated sledgehammer while Ibaka may secretly be declining—and is not secretly no longer one of Oklahoma City’s three best players, and 2) Ibaka wanted out.

As of right now, Westbrook does not want out. All these hypotheticals exist in a world where Durant is gone and Westbrook is unhappy—a reality we may never see.

But pretending it happens, what packages can Presti fetch? As great as Westbrook is, only teams convinced they can re-sign him to a five-year max contract will get in on the bidding. Give up too much for a one-year rental and you look like the Brooklyn Nets.

That leaves seven teams that A) need a point guard (or are interested in upgrading at the position), B) have an attractive package to offer, and C) feel confident that Westbrook will enjoy his stay enough to commit long term. They are the Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans. Let’s go through and see what each team can offer.


Celtics: Avery Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, Jaylen Brown and Brooklyn’s 2017 first-round pick. (Assuming Durant signs with Boston.)

Oklahoma City grabs an All-Star on a great contract, the number three pick in the draft, one of the best defenders at his position and—above all else—their Get Out of Jail card via Brooklyn. The Celtics aren’t willing to give all this up for one year of Westbrook if they didn’t already have Durant on a one-year deal, and even then they’d probably check with him first before pulling the trigger.

With him on board, they’re the best team in the Eastern Conference, and still have Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder and the 2018 Nets pick to offer in a trade—should the Bulls want that package for Jimmy Butler.


Timberwolves: Kris Dunn and Andrew Wiggins

The Thunder do this for obvious reasons: Dunn will be their franchise point guard and Wiggins will be their franchise player. It is unlikely these two will ever meet the heights reached by Westbrook and Durant, but it increases Oklahoma City’s flexibility—particularly on the trade market—and allows it to sustain relevance while rehabilitating the roster. Wiggins is the best consolation prize on the table, across the league.

The Timberwolves risk their lightning-bright future by accelerating their timeline, exchanging two budding blue-chip prospects for one 27-year-old who may detest Minnesota winters, and going for it all right away. But Karl-Anthony Towns will be the best player in the world sooner than later, and Tom Thibodeau may feel like he can convince Westbrook to stay on for the long haul.


Lakers: D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram and L.A.’s unprotected first-round pick in 2021.

The idea of Oklahoma City turning into the Lakers isn’t particularly attractive, but Russell and Ingram both have All-Star potential. Compared to the other offers that would be on the table, though, Los Angeles may not have enough to get their hometown star. Who knows what they look like in 2021?


Bulls: Doug McDermott, Denzel Valentine, Bobby Portis, Chicago’s unprotected first-round pick in 2017 and a top-five protected first-round pick in 2019.

The Bulls make this trade because they don’t want to waste Butler’s prime, and know they can’t compete for a championship without adding another top-15 player to the roster. They’re giving up a ton to bring Westbrook aboard, but are confident their market and franchise pedigree will be enough to keep him around beyond one season.

The Thunder mostly get a Pu-Pu platter for their trouble, but those two draft picks could be useful in the event Westbrook skips town.


Hornets: Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte’s unprotected first-round pick in 2017 and unprotected first-round pick in 2019.

More draft picks! Oklahoma City also gets an All-Star caliber point guard who’s still improving and one of the best contracts in the entire league. If the Thunder intend to stay competitive and boost their future, few deals are better than this one.

Why does Charlotte do this trade? Five words: Michael Jordan loves to gamble.


Heat: Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson and Goran Dragic.

Miami doesn’t have any relevant draft picks to deal, but they do have a pair of interesting two-way prospects who performed reasonably well in the postseason. Dragic’s contract is a steal.

If anyone isn’t scared of making this trade knowing Westbrook can bounce after one year, it’s Pat Riley.


Pelicans: Jrue Holiday, Buddy Hield and New Orleans’ unprotected first-round pick in 2017 and 2019.

New Orleans reeks of desperation, and the only way it can ever compete for a title (which, sadly, may not be the goal) is by pairing Anthony Davis with another superstar. This may be the closest they ever come to getting one.

Oklahoma City gets a year to look at the talented albeit injury-prone Holiday, plus Hield and two unprotected first-round picks. As is the case with all these offers, those draft picks are huge.


bob
MY NOTE:  I do not like the Boston offer at all.  Some of these trades, like the LA one, don't work financially.  Westbrook makes $16M/year.  Russell and Ingram together wouldn't make $11M.  Nevertheless, the prospect of Westbrook leaving OKC after next year must be front-and-center in Sam Presti's mind.  If Westbrook leaves on his own OKC gets nothing in return, and if Westbrook is traded then any reason for Durant to re-sign in OKC, even for one year, evaporates.  He can sign anywhere for one year, and then re-up.  If he re-signs in OKC it is either because he plans to stay there long-term and/or because he wants to give the OKC fans one more chance before it blows up.  If Sam Presti blows it up early to get some return for Westbrook, with Ibaka already gone, then next year will be Hell for Durant.


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Post by tjmakz Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:41 pm

I don't understand the idea behind offering up so much for a player who could leave in a year.
Plus, the team trading for Westbrook has to give up so much to get him, that he would be playing for a much weaker team.
If Durant leaves this summer or if OKC comes up short again next summer, I think Westbrook will leave OKC.
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Post by swish Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:59 pm

He's not the go to player that you expect to get when you shell out the big bucks. Not a max contract player. Like I said in another post, he's one of those players that will continually shoot you out of a game.


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Post by bobheckler Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:03 pm

tjmakz wrote:I don't understand the idea behind offering up so much for a player who could leave in a year.
Plus, the team trading for Westbrook has to give up so much to get him, that he would be playing for a much weaker team.
If Durant leaves this summer or if OKC comes up short again next summer, I think Westbrook will leave OKC.


TJ,

I would assume that any trade would have the player's promise to sign with them next year. That's what happened with KG in 2007. He came here with a year left, promised he'd re-sign, and did.


bob

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Post by tjmakz Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:13 pm

bobheckler wrote:
tjmakz wrote:I don't understand the idea behind offering up so much for a player who could leave in a year.
Plus, the team trading for Westbrook has to give up so much to get him, that he would be playing for a much weaker team.
If Durant leaves this summer or if OKC comes up short again next summer, I think Westbrook will leave OKC.


TJ,

I would assume that any trade would have the player's promise to sign with them next year.  That's what happened with KG in 2007.  He came here with a year left, promised he'd re-sign, and did.


bob

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Bob,

Did KG have a no trade clause with Minnesota?
If so, he might have agreed to re-sign in order to waive the no trade clause.
I don't know if there was any promise from Garnett, but of course, he was going to re-sign with Boston.

Why would Westbrook or any other player promise to re-sign a year ahead of time?
Also, there is no way a promise is enforceable.
One of the reasons why the asking price for Cousins, Butler, George, etc is so high is because they are locked up for multiple years.
With only one year left, Westbrook's trade value is lowered.
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Post by bobheckler Tue Jun 28, 2016 4:33 pm

tjmakz wrote:
bobheckler wrote:
tjmakz wrote:I don't understand the idea behind offering up so much for a player who could leave in a year.
Plus, the team trading for Westbrook has to give up so much to get him, that he would be playing for a much weaker team.
If Durant leaves this summer or if OKC comes up short again next summer, I think Westbrook will leave OKC.


TJ,

I would assume that any trade would have the player's promise to sign with them next year.  That's what happened with KG in 2007.  He came here with a year left, promised he'd re-sign, and did.


bob

.

Bob,

Did KG have a no trade clause with Minnesota?
If so, he might have agreed to re-sign in order to waive the no trade clause.
I don't know if there was any promise from Garnett, but of course, he was going to re-sign with Boston.

Why would Westbrook or any other player promise to re-sign a year ahead of time?
Also, there is no way a promise is enforceable.
One of the reasons why the asking price for Cousins, Butler, George, etc is so high is because they are locked up for multiple years.
With only one year left, Westbrook's trade value is lowered.


TJ,

1.  KG did NOT have a no trade clause with Minnesota.  He was traded on July 31, 2007.  On August 1, 2007 he signed a 3-year contract extension with Boston, not Minny.  Obviously, the deal had been agreed to in advance but not executed until after the fact.

2.  I don't understand the next line.  One doesn't have to agree to anything to waive a no-trade clause.  If you meant to say he had to waive the no-trade clause to be traded and subsequently re-signed, then yeah, but KG didn't have a no-trade clause with Minny.  He had one in his contract with Boston, which carried forward to his time in Purgatory in Brooklyn.  He had to waive his no-trade clause twice, once with Boston and again with Brooklyn, to end up in Minny again.

3.  "Of course he was going to re-sign with Boston"?  Yeah, because he made a verbal promise as part of Danny going along with it.

4.  Westbrook, or any other player, might promise to re-sign a year ahead of of time precisely to grease the skids of the deal.  If Westbrook wants to go to the Lakers, but doesn't want to completely stiff OKC, he might agree to that.  If he wants to sign there anyway, why not?  And if Sam Presti thinks he's going to lose Westbrook anyway, why not?  The key is "does the player want to go there?".  If he does, then it can happen.  If he doesn't, then the acquiring GM would be a fool to roll the dice.  To put a name on such foolishness, Billy King.  Such incompetence, giving away all that for Paul Pierce who was in the same contract situation Westbrook is in, is a rarity.  

5.  No, it is probably not enforceable (although I suppose there could be a document, approved by OKC so there is no tampering, in which Westbrook promises to sign with Team X for Y years and at Z $), but unless you're a flake like DeAndre Jordan such promises are usually kept.  Witness the fall-out from the Jordan fiasco.  The league was so appalled by it they changed the rules/timing of free agency.  Agents don't want that to happen either, it makes them look bad too and they have other clients to market to GMs around the league.  They don't want that kind of rep.

6.  The price for Westbrook might be a little lower, because this is his final contract year, but it won't be that much less.  They are acquiring a talent that they are willing to pay max dollars for next year.  Nobody tries to get a player like Westbrook or Durant or Cousins or George or Butler as part of a salary dump.  Getting that talent a little earlier and becoming the incumbent franchise, and a year to shmooze him, has value too.  Cousins has two years left on his contract, vs one for Westbrook.  George has 2 years plus a player option year, which he will almost certainly opt out of since it is only for $20.5M.  With the cap exploding he'll be able to get a lot more than that by then so, realistically, he only has two years left like Cousins.  One year difference isn't a lot.  Only Butler has a lot of years left.



bob


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