With Al Horford, ESPN advanced stats pick Celtics second in East

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With Al Horford, ESPN advanced stats pick Celtics second in East Empty With Al Horford, ESPN advanced stats pick Celtics second in East

Post by bobheckler Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:30 pm

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2016/08/boston_celtics_win_projections.html



Boston Celtics win projections: With Al Horford, ESPN advanced stats pick Celtics second in East



With Al Horford, ESPN advanced stats pick Celtics second in East 20976201-mmmain
Boston Celtics forward Al Horford, second from left, smiles during a media availability at the team's practice facility, Friday, July 8, 2016, in Waltham, Mass. Horford agreed to a four-year, $113 million deal with the Celtics as an unrestricted free agent, ending nearly ten years with the Atlanta Hawks. From left are Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck, Horford, general manager Danny Ainge and head coach Brad Stevens. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)


Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com By Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com



on August 24, 2016 at 11:45 AM, updated August 24, 2016 at 11:49 AM




When the Boston Celtics landed Al Horford this offseason, after winning 48 games and tying for the third-best record in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15, expectations soared.

While most analysts agree that they are still a step below LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Celtics should be notably improved with Horford filling gaps on both ends, but particularly on offense where Boston has had an enormous void in the middle for years.

ESPN released record projections on Wednesday based on their real plus/minus (RPM) statistical model, which projects the Celtics to gain only a win or two with Al Horford in tow. It does, however, pick the Celtics to be the second-best team in the East.

Here's the link (via ESPN Insider), and here's the blurb on the Celtics at No. 2:

Projected wins: 49.8

Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.

Some quick background on RPM as a stat: Developed by a former employee of the Phoenix Suns, it attempts to improve upon basic individual plus/minus as a stat, taking away the variable of the effect an individual player's teammates have on his stats. Like every catch-all stat (like PER or win shares), it's imperfect (two years ago, Taj Gibson's overall RPM put him just below superstars James Harden, Chris Bosh and Russell Westbrook), but it's useful and interesting when used correctly.

Winning two extra games might seem like a minimal improvement given addition of Horford, but jumping up to 50 wins and grabbing the No. 2 slot in the East would be considerably bigger than "minimal." The addition of star players doesn't automatically equate a guaranteed increase in wins — rather, it makes the team stronger and more difficult to eliminate in the playoffs. The Celtics will certainly be a better team, but with the improved Eastern Conference (as well as the unpredictable wins and losses that can't be written into a team's schedule every year), there's no guarantee that adding Horford will turn them into a 55-win team.

If the Celtics can reach the No. 2 seed at whatever record, however, the deal will be a phenomenal success. The No. 2 seed would mean that a potential second-round matchup with the Toronto Raptors would begin in the TD Garden, where the playoff atmosphere was strong enough last year to help sway Horford into a Celtics uniform this offseason. It would give the Celtics their best chance to reach the Eastern Conference Finals since 2012, when Derrick Rose's injury helped clear the path for Boston's final matchup with LeBron James in the Celtics' most recent Big Three era. That would be a big accomplishment, and it would presumably be an enormous help in recruiting free agents this offseason.

It's worth noting that the RPM projections pick Toronto to finish third, falling slightly from last year because DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry's career years might be difficult to repeat, but ESPN's Kevin Pelton added that the Raptors have outperformed RPM projections for three consecutive seasons. The Detroit Pistons rounded out the top four, while Boston's first-round matchup — if RPM manages to nail every Eastern Conference finish — would be the Milwaukee Bucks at No. 7.

As always, take advanced stats for what they are: A useful tool for evaluating teams and players that can't possibly sum up everything. This isn't a guarantee that the Celtics will finish with the No. 2 overall seed in the East, but rather a nod to the fact that while their win-total projections may not have risen significantly, the Celtics are going to be good in 2016-17. How good? We'll see. That's why they play the games.




bob


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