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Post by Ram on Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:23 pm

He'd be the a great complementary big for this team. Not sure why Jason Kidd doesn't utilize him more in Milwaukee. Yeah he can't shoot FT's very well and doesn't shoot 3's, but giving a guy 18 mins, then 16, then 14 the last 3 years all while he has PER's around 18 and win shares around 3 when Greg Monroe clearly can't play defense is baffling to me. 

This team needs a rebounding, rim-protecting PF/C who can run the floor, do all the little things well and not get in the way. Basically a better Amir Johnson. Amir would still get 12-16 mins a game if Henson were here playing 18-22 mins a game, but Zeller wouldn't be seen at all and Jerebko's mins would go down. The guy averages 15 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks per 36 minutes in his career and shot 56% from the floor the last 2 years.

His contract is super cheap (based on the new market), but is just expensive enough to possibly keep the C's from the room needed for a max free agent in the summer. Of course he could be flipped real quick if they need to create space. He'll be paid descending salaries of 11.4, 10.6 and 9.7 million over the next 3 years. The perfect cash slot to replace Amir and slowly play less and less of a role as perhaps whoever is taken with the Nets pick (Giles? Rabb?) plays more and more. And he'll just turn 26 in December, same age range as the Avery, Crowder, Thomas, Olynyk group. 

Do you think Ainge would make a move for him and would the Bucks be selling?
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Post by bobheckler on Sat Nov 12, 2016 5:51 pm

Henson's /36mpg numbers have fallen off the table this year. Yeah, it's still early and maybe he doesn't like how he is being used, etc but they aren't good.

Would you trade Amir for him?


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Post by Ram on Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:16 pm

bobheckler wrote:Henson's /36mpg numbers have fallen off the table this year.  Yeah, it's still early and maybe he doesn't like how he is being used, etc but they aren't good.

Would you trade Amir for him?


bob

It is obviously still very early, so for a guy who is 25 years old I would look at his stats from the last 3 years to see what type of player he would be. 

His 12.9 rebounds per 36 minutes this season is the best mark he has posted since his rookie year (he was at 8.3, 9.1 and 9.6 the last 3 seasons), his 2.6 assists and 1.1 steals are also career high's per 36 minutes. The only things that have fallen off the table are his points, blocks and shooting #'s. So really it is 1/2 his stats are up, 1/2 are down, and he is almost certainly the same player he was from the previous 2-3 seasons. 

I'd prefer to keep Amir and move someone who has less value in our system. It doesn't make sense for either team to make that swap, but Henson would be a slight upgrade and is much younger. The Bucks definitely recognize the value of Henson's long-term contract and would likely have no interest in moving him for an older player who fills the same role, makes the same $ (this season) and is then a free agent with no Bird Right's who would probably depart or require in FA what the younger/better Henson is making the next 3 years to stick around. I'd think it would be more like Zeller and two assets out of Young, Jackson and a 2018 or 2019 1st rd pick (ours, Clippers, Grizz, whatever ends up being the best just as long as any pick is lotto protected).

Zeller is similar in age to Henson and his 8m player option for 2017-18 is a super affordable one. If Monroe opts out or is traded they can pick it up and have a serviceable center for a year, if Monroe opts in they can either trade Zeller (1 year 8m is cheap even for an underachieving backup) or decline the option and save 3 years 33 million on all Henson's remaining deal.
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Post by Ram on Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:33 pm

When Monroe was signed last year and with Parker returning from injury it clearly meant less minutes would to go around and probably a reduced role for Henson, yet he still signed a 4 year 44 million extension that quickly looked real bad for him when the market exploded this summer. Does he love Milwaukee? Did he get bad advice?

He isn't quite Jae Crowder cheap, but he signed the type of deal Joakim Noah signed way back in 2010 (5/60) in October of 2015. Had he just waited until restricted free agency he'd have been getting Biyombo/Mozgov money, 4 years 60-70 million. 

I have to think that missing out on that cash, the failure of the Monroe experience, the Buck's going from dangerous playoff club to lotto team and Kidd's unwillingness to play him more than 14-16 mins a game have taken their toll on the kid. But who knows for sure. 

If I was a betting man, I'd say a move to one of the top teams in the east and a place alongside a two way big like Horford would revitalize him and we'd see stats like those he averaged in 2013-15 and 2014-15. 

22 minutes, 9 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and 55% from the field.
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Post by Ram on Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:49 pm

He reminds me a lot of a longer, leaner version of the Blazers Ed Davis. Maybe not quite as tough, but a better shot-blocker and the type of rotational big all playoff teams worth their chops have.

If the C's were to replace Amir in the starting lineup with Henson, they would upgrade the rebounding/rim-protecting and take some of that burden off Horford, allowing him to do all the little things he is most comfortable with. There would be a downgrade on the offensive end, where Henson isn't nearly the passer, spacer, occasional 3-point dagger guy Amir is, but you'd think with him crashing the offensive boards and with the offensive chemistry between IT, Bradley, Crowder and Horford finally getting going it wouldn't be much of an issue. 

Then you'd move Amir to the bench, where his rim-protection is would be a HUGE help when paired with Olynyk. His passing/spacing/switching style of play would really help Smart and make a bench of Smart-Rozier-Brown-Johnson-Olynyk SUPER dangerous. I mean 3 of those 5 guys started last night in a blowout of the Knicks and the other two are back to back 1st rd picks who are super athletic and only going to keep improving. 

I'd be much happier with that rotation moving forward and Jerebko, Green. Mickey, Jackson and Nader as the deep bench than with what we have now. As long as Ainge is comfortable taking on the 3/33 Henson is owed after this season, and realizing he might have to give him away for practically nothing if a max free agent were to sign here, then I'd love to see a deal for him that would send out say Zeller, Young and 2018 1st rd pick.  

If no max free agent comes along, the C's simply have improved their trade chip treasure chest of affordable contracts, improved the roster of an east contender, and allowed for another Nets top 7 pick to be brought along slowly.
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Post by bobheckler on Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:20 pm

The rumor is that Willie Cauley-Stein can be had. He is a fraction of the contract of Henson and is younger. He has the sickle cell anemia problem which may prevent him from starter minutes.

Who would you rather have?


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Post by Ram on Sat Nov 12, 2016 8:21 pm

bobheckler wrote:The rumor is that Willie Cauley-Stein can be had.  He is a fraction of the contract of Henson and is younger.  He has the sickle cell anemia problem which may prevent him from starter minutes.

Who would you rather have?


bob

Hmmm, tough call. Henson more reliable and as of right now a better shot-blocker and team defender, Cauley-Stein much more upside and as you said, younger/cheaper. 

I wouldn't say he's a fraction of the cost, as over the next two years he'll make 7.7m less and 5.9 million less, then become a restricted free agent where (if he performs and signs a decent deal in the new FA market) he will likely make more on the first year of his deal than the 9.7m Henson will make in his last, or play for the 6.3m qualifying offer. So 3/15 w. the QO instead of 3/33. Although the C's can cut ties with him as early as this offseason. But his $ is definitely easier to deal with if Ainge wants to sign a max player this summer. 

He has the sickle cell trait, but not a sickle cell anemia problem. If he had the actual disease he could not play ball. The trait just means there will be times he has slight chest pains, gets winded, and needs to sit out until his heart rate comes down. Concerning no doubt, but from what I read it rarely affects him and not something Doc's even bother monitoring, more like just being asthmatic. 

If you could guarantee me Cauley-Stein would improve on his per 36 #'s as a rookie (12 pts, 9 rebs, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals, 0.9 assists, 15.3 PER) to say 14 pts, 12 rebs, 2.6 blocks, 1.6 steals, 2 assists and a PER around 20. Which, if given 18 mins per game here would be be like 7 pts, 6 boards, 1.6 blks, 1.3 stls and 1 assist while getting his 56% FG shooting up around 60% and 68% FT shooting up around 75%, then I would take him over Henson. Those stats are all just enough of a jump to expect from a guy in his 2nd or 3rd season and would place him slightly ahead of Henson when it comes to his overall impact. Although it is still yet to be seen whether he is the defensive menace everyone envisioned coming out of college. Playing in the wasteland that is Sacramento can't help his development either. 

I'd have no trouble trading Young, Mickey and a protected 2018 or 2019 1st rd pick for him.
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Post by bobheckler on Sun Nov 13, 2016 11:18 am

Ram wrote:
bobheckler wrote:The rumor is that Willie Cauley-Stein can be had.  He is a fraction of the contract of Henson and is younger.  He has the sickle cell anemia problem which may prevent him from starter minutes.

Who would you rather have?


bob

Hmmm, tough call. Henson more reliable and as of right now a better shot-blocker and team defender, Cauley-Stein much more upside and as you said, younger/cheaper. 

I wouldn't say he's a fraction of the cost, as over the next two years he'll make 7.7m less and 5.9 million less, then become a restricted free agent where (if he performs and signs a decent deal in the new FA market) he will likely make more on the first year of his deal than the 9.7m Henson will make in his last, or play for the 6.3m qualifying offer. So 3/15 w. the QO instead of 3/33. Although the C's can cut ties with him as early as this offseason. But his $ is definitely easier to deal with if Ainge wants to sign a max player this summer. 

He has the sickle cell trait, but not a sickle cell anemia problem. If he had the actual disease he could not play ball. The trait just means there will be times he has slight chest pains, gets winded, and needs to sit out until his heart rate comes down. Concerning no doubt, but from what I read it rarely affects him and not something Doc's even bother monitoring, more like just being asthmatic. 

If you could guarantee me Cauley-Stein would improve on his per 36 #'s as a rookie (12 pts, 9 rebs, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals, 0.9 assists, 15.3 PER) to say 14 pts, 12 rebs, 2.6 blocks, 1.6 steals, 2 assists and a PER around 20. Which, if given 18 mins per game here would be be like 7 pts, 6 boards, 1.6 blks, 1.3 stls and 1 assist while getting his 56% FG shooting up around 60% and 68% FT shooting up around 75%, then I would take him over Henson. Those stats are all just enough of a jump to expect from a guy in his 2nd or 3rd season and would place him slightly ahead of Henson when it comes to his overall impact. Although it is still yet to be seen whether he is the defensive menace everyone envisioned coming out of college. Playing in the wasteland that is Sacramento can't help his development either. 

I'd have no trouble trading Young, Mickey and a protected 2018 or 2019 1st rd pick for him.


ram,

I'd have no problem trading Young, Mickey and a protected pick for him either. The problem is that all our non-protected picks are ours (as opposed to Brooklyn's) and they'd have to be crazy to trade #6 WCS for Young, Mickey and a mid-20s pick.


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Post by swish on Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:24 pm

Since putting up starter numbers in his 2nd year - 26.5 mpg for the 4th rank on the team, his minutes played per game have decreased each year.
2014-15 ,,, 18.3 mpg and 8th off the bench
2015-16 ,,, 16.8 mpg and 9th off the bench
2016-17 ,,, 14.5 mpg and 10th off the bench
Real nice stat numbers when extended to 36 minutes - so why has he gone from a starter to # 10 off the bench ?

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Post by bobheckler on Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:37 pm

swish wrote:Since putting up starter numbers in his 2nd year - 26.5 mpg for the 4th rank on the team, his minutes played per game have decreased each year.
     2014-15 ,,, 18.3 mpg and 8th off the bench
     2015-16 ,,, 16.8 mpg and 9th off the bench
     2016-17 ,,, 14.5 mpg and 10th off the bench
Real nice stat numbers when extended to 36 minutes - so why has he gone from a starter to # 10 off the bench ?

   swish


swish,

There has also been a regime change. Maybe his style and skills might not fit in with Jason Kidd's game plans?

If he is still producing starter quality play but in limited minutes that might suggest there isn't a decline in his skills, only in opportunity, which brings us back to regime change.


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Post by Ram on Tue Nov 15, 2016 12:52 pm

bobheckler wrote:
swish wrote:Since putting up starter numbers in his 2nd year - 26.5 mpg for the 4th rank on the team, his minutes played per game have decreased each year.
     2014-15 ,,, 18.3 mpg and 8th off the bench
     2015-16 ,,, 16.8 mpg and 9th off the bench
     2016-17 ,,, 14.5 mpg and 10th off the bench
Real nice stat numbers when extended to 36 minutes - so why has he gone from a starter to # 10 off the bench ?

   swish

swish,

There has also been a regime change.  Maybe his style and skills might not fit in with Jason Kidd's game plans?

If he is still producing starter quality play but in limited minutes that might suggest there isn't a decline in his skills, only in opportunity, which brings us back to regime change.


bob

Now Kidd says Henson is the starter over Plumlee moving forward and Nick Silva saying the Bucks are still trying to trade Greg Monroe. 

http://www.espn.com/blog/nba/rumors/post/_/id/40134/nba-rumor-central-john-henson-to-remain-bucks-starting-center
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