Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

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Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by kdp59 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:43 am

New stuff at the end, I thought I should show thoughts from last pre-season and mid-season also as a primer. ( the good and the bad).

My 2015 Celtics Roster breakdown:

My Midseason update in BOLD:

With the roster now set to start the season, I thought it was time for my roster breakdown. I’ll note here that I think barring trade or major injury, that Brad will play a 10-11 man rotation and attempt to wear down opposing teams with his depth. So some players may have lower minutes over the season than we may expect, but some backups may play more. With that here is how I see things today.

Pretty much what I expected to start the year.

C- T. Zeller- Zeller continued to show in the pre-season that he is a solid NBA back up center. He does many of the little things that wins games and has good hands and shooting touch inside. It looks to me like he’s picked up some weight in his legs in the offs-season to go along with the beard. Best to keep his minutes down per game as he can wear down with extended play against stronger big men. He’ll probably start for us this year (barring any trades) and I think he’ll log in about of 1600 minutes this year.

Has been back in the rotation recently, after being buried firmly on the bench. But so  far this season is probably his worst as a pro.

C/PF- A. Johnson-  One of the big men who will share time at Center with Zeller this year. I actually looked at Toronto’s stats from last year and it looks like Amir played a lot at center there also. He may be the best rim protector on the team, can rebound and score a little as well. I was dismayed when Ainge signed him for $12M, but as usual Ainge knew more about the makeup of the Celtics this season and how he would fit, than I ever would. I think he’ll play around 1600 minutes this year.

Our best inside defender and always works hard. Looks like his minutes will be more than I thought.

C/PF- K./ Olynyk- yet another option that Brad will play at center , though I think most of Kelly’s minutes will be at PF this season. A 3 pt shooting big man, with the ability to pass the ball well, he may never develop the “drive” that turns a player with his lack of athleticism into an all-star. But he should be able to have a long career in the NBA also. I think he’ll play around 1400 minutes this year.

Has really turned it on the past few weeks, maybe the light has finally gone on. Time will tell of course. But his improved defensive play has been in form all year. Right now one the five players I want Danny to keep around for sure.

PF- D. Lee-  One time all-star who Ainge got for Wallace (another one time all-star). Lee is NOT an all-star player now , however he still has solid skills and is a savvy vet . Like many I have been surprised by Lee’s ability to handle the ball and never knew it was part of his game. I think he’ll remain a starter for Brad along side Zeller this year, as their games seem to mesh well. Keeping his minutes down will make him more valuable as the season progresses. I see him playing around 1800 minutes this year.

Has now taken Wallace spot as cheerleader on the bench, until or if he is traded or released. I was really wrong about him and Zeller being the starting big men, LOL.


PF- J. Sullinger- A lot of Celtic fans seem to be down on Sully a bit, due to his weight issue last year. And while he has had an uneven pre-season, we have seen the Sully we are used to when he gets minutes. I personally think Sully is similar to a young D. Lee in a lot of ways and if he would forget trying to be a 3 point shooter and work more on his rebounding, scoring inside and passing, he could have a career very similar. I think he’ll be a regular part of Brad’s rotation, though his minutes will down from last year, I see around 1400 minutes this year.

Sully has taken all of the minutes I thought Lee would get. Good to see Sully taking LESS three pointers, IMO.  I could still see him being moved IF Ainge gets a chance at a better player.

PF- J. Mickey- #33 pick  who I had going late first in the draft, so obviously  I like the kid. He can block shots with the best of them and is willing to do the dirty work inside. However his slender frame may hamper him in the NBA ( there are a lot of similar sized/built players who lead the NCAA in blocks and never played much in the NBA). He won’t get much time with our deep roster this year, but might give us glimpse for the future in the D-league this year. I see him playing minimal minutes this year.

I was spot on with this so far.

PF/SF- J. Jerebko- Paying $5M to Jerebko this year seems like a bit of an overpay, if we see him as a PF. There simply doesn’t seem to be enough minutes there. But Jerebko is an energy guy (which Brad likes) and can hit the 3 ball. I see him getting more of his minutes at SF this year however this season. Even so it’s hard to see him being any higher than the 11th man in the rotation, as such I see his minutes being limited to around 1000 for the year.

10th man not 11th as I thought and his minutes are up a bit . Works hard, but not having the same impact he did late last year. Brad seems to like what he brings and will keep playing him, I think

SF- J. Crowder- Ainge signed him to a 5year/ $35M deal in the off-season, showing he sees Crowder as a key player here at least. Classic high energy defender and it seems Brad loves that. I think many Celtic fans under estimate his 3 point shooting. His downside is he really has no other offensive game beside the 3. I would think he would get more rebounds with his strength as well. He appears to be our starting SF  at least this pre-season. I see his minutes for the year around 1800.

MUCH better than I assumed and I think I had a higher opinion than many. He has added the ability to drive to the hoop to his game this year and has a lot of confidence in his game right now. I never saw him as a 14pt per game guy myself. Another guy I wan Danny to keep.

SF/G- E. Turner- Ainge gave him a shot last year and Brad found his NBA spot as a point forward it seemed. Turner is guy who does a lot of different things well, but not ONE thing great. I could see him back n the Starting lineup at SF, with Crowder and his energy better utilized off the bench, but we’ll see how it plays out. Either way Turner will be in the rotation and I see him getting around 1800 minutes this year.

Spot on so far with Turner. He may the second best player we have that can create his own shot. He had worked himself into an adequate defender as well. Like Sully he should forget about those 3 point shots, it is NOT his game. I like him more than most I would guess and while I don’t see him as one the “5 players Danny needs to keep and build around” , I could see him being re-signed here to a more market average deal.

SF/SG- J. Young- Ainge and Brad were not going to give up on the youngster just yet, though many fans were ready to dump him.  He has shown some improved play  this pre-season, but still has yet to take the leap that many want to see. He is buried on this deep roster now and I see him only getting minimal minutes this year again.

Time is starting to run here for the Lefty. Brad game him some minutes earlier in the year and he was hit and miss mostly, showing SOME improvement over his rookie year. Hard to say what the coaches see in practice and such, but  a real chance he will be gone  by next season.

SG- A. Bradley- I think Bradley has spent this pre-season and camp making a statement that he is ready to be a go-to scorer in the NBA. Every year we have seen growth in Bradley games in one way or another. Last year he was at times the best scorer on your team, but he was also streaky and didn’t seem to have the “killer instinct” that go to scorers have. I think he WANTS to be that guy and by his pre-season he may become it. IMO, Bradley’s pre-season has been the biggest under the radar play this year. I even still see Celtics fans wanting to dump him in trade scenarios, but I think Bradley and Thomas will compete to be our top scorers this year and Bradley will get all-star recognition this year. I see him playing about 2400 minutes.

LOL, I was a bit optimistic about that All-star stuff! But he has shown an improved offensive game, with both his outside shooting and driving to the rim . He can still disappear at times during games, especially at crunch time. Which means that “get me the damn ball” attitude that all good offensive players have isn’t quit there. Now we have rumors about being unhappy with the deal he signed. Unless the Contract thing becomes bigger, he is still one of my 5 players Danny needs to keep.


SG- RJ Hunter-  Noted sharpshooter coming out of the draft, but we have been surprised by other aspects of his game as well. His ball handling and willingness to at least WORK on the defensive end has been a pleasant surprise to me at least. Seems to be another high basketball IQ   guy ( as is the norm for guys Brad likes) and if he continues to work hard will probably be in the NBA for a while. However I can’t see him getting much time this year as our roster is loaded. I see him playing about as much as Young this year.

Typical Rookie, will probably replace Young next year as the sharpshooter we all wait to develop.

SG/PG- M. Smart-  Like Bradley a guy who continues to improve. He and Crowder can be killers on the floor on the defensive end with their energy and effort. Smart has worked on not only his ball handling, but also his outside shot this off-season it appears. Smart , Bradley and Thomas give us a three guard rotation that may be one of he best in the NBA even THIS season, IMO. I see Smart playing around 2400 minutes.

His minutes are down due to injuries, which could be a look into the future with his tough on his body play. His outside shot has also regressed, so it has been good to see him driving inside more lately. I can still see him as being a Dennis Johnson type on a playoff team and as such needs to stay here.


PG- I. Thomas-  we all know what he can do by now, a catalyst  on offense when he’s on the floor. He always will be a liability on defense due his size, so having either Smart or Bradley on the floor with him is almost a requirement. Uncanny ability to get his shot off inside with the trees, I can’t remember a other player who can do it so well , some have said a young Tiny Archibald.  I see him playing about 2200 minutes

Should make the all-star team this year.  Brad does a good job of hiding him on defense and IT works hard on that end (at times). I still see him best as a sixth man on a very good team and I feel his longer term play will diminish over time with loss of speed and jumping ability. But for now, he should be one of the 5 keepers .

PG- T. Rozier- Has really been out to prove that he deserved to picked as high as he was in this past years draft and has succeeded by most accounts. I have been more impressed with his hard work on the defensive end so far than anything else. On a less deep team, he would probably get real minutes this year, but with this teams depth , I can’t see him being anymore than the 11-12 man in the rotation. Though there is a chance that he could play himself  ahead of Jerebko and take some of his minutes. So depending I see him playing minimal minutes up to a maximum or maybe 800.

Getting Minutes more like Hunter and Young on the end of the bench. I can see him being here a while and I could see Danny including him in a trade deal also.


So right now I see the starters and rotation as:
C- Zeller
PF- Lee
SF- Turner
SG- Bradley
PG Smart
6. Thomas
7. Crowder
8. Johnson
9. Olynyk
10. Sully
11. Jerebko or Rozier
With Young, Hunter and Mickey getting a lot of DNPCD or time in Maine.
Real rotation/ depth chart has been more like:
PF- Amir
PF- Sully
SF- Crowder
SG- Bradley
PG- Thomas
6. Smart
7. Turner
8. Kelly
9. Jerebko
10. Zeller (Lee was in the rotation earlier).
My five Keepers form this team moving forward:
Kelly
Crowder
Bradley
Thomas
Smart

All other players could be traded if a deal to improve the team comes up, IMO.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

2016 Mid-season version:


C- T. Zeller-  Danny resigned him to a “market “deal and like last season Brad use of him has been up and down.  Zeller is what is by now, a backup center on an average team or less, a 10th man on a good playoff team. He has his liabilities, but seems to work hard and almost never hurts you when he’s on the floor. Good chance he gets moved IF Danny can work a bigger trade this year, with his non-guaranteed salary next year having some value.

C/PF- A. Horford- Danny’s big Free agent signing in the off-season is a classy, hard working veteran big man. Horford plays hard on both ends of the floor and has near all-star ability. Working his game into Brad’s concepts now and we should see better overall play from him as the season progresses. I do feel Danny had to overpay to get Horford as I have doubts that he is the type of player to take over games, especially against top competition.  Some say he’d do better at PF, however he’s been primarily a center his whole NBA career. He’ll be here for 4 years now, so I hope his play steps up some.

C/PF- K./ Olynyk- His shooting is down this year, hopefully it’s just the aftermath of his shoulder surgery and not a sign of his future game. He is what he is, a stretch 4 (5?), which is a good trait in todays NBA. Kelly has improved his defense in the past two years and is now an average defender. Many seem to not see it for some reason, I suppose they think all big men should be Russell type defenders. IF Danny doesn’t re-sign him, he will probably get a pretty nice offer somewhere as a RFA in the off-season.

PF- A. Johnson- definitely looks to be slowing down so far this year. Still works hard on the defensive end, but not much on the offensive end. I don’t see  any way he returns next year .

PF- J. Mickey- many fans want to see him play, but the staff rarely lets him into games. Too bad he’s not 2” taller and 30 pounds heavier. He’ll probably be in the d-league or overseas next year.

PF/SF- J. Jerebko-  doing the same things he has since he got here. His shot has seemed to get back on track recently. I can see him being resigned this off-season for sure.

SF- J. Crowder- we may have seen the peak of Crowder’s game now, energy guy- hardnosed defender with limited offensive game. Contract should keep him around for a while here.

SF/SG- J. Brown- athletic is the one thing most fans would say about him. Up and down like most 20 YO rookies are for sure, but shows glimpse of being a guy worth the #3 pick in a draft. Works on both ends and I think could become the starting SF next season here or the main scorer off the bench. Brown shows the “drive” to be a go –t o scorer I the NBA to me.

SF/SG- J. Young-  Is he still on the roster? If so, he won’t be next year.

SF/SG- G. Green- Back where the long road started. Green is doing the same things he’s done over 10 years now.  He can get hot and light it up for a short while, then disappear on the bench again. If he’s willing to play for minimum salary I can see him back here next season over Young.

SG- A. Bradley- Well, it looks like Bradley has lived up to my hype from last year now.  IF Danny makes a big trade, Bradley may end up being the best player going the other way.  But if so it better be a DAMN good player coming back. Every Celtic fan has to love Bradley and his game.

SG/PG- M. Smart- he have yet to see the improved outside shot (and frankly we may never see it). I still love his grit  and want him to be a part of this team for a long time.

PG- I. Thomas-  Thomas has somehow taken his game even higher. One of the top scorers in the NBA now and a guy who has that “drive” to be the best. As far as I’m concerned he has found his NBA home and should be here for a long time.

PG- T. Rozier-  Has taken the next step this year (even though he may be out  of the rotation right this moment). He may end being a Bradley type of young player, who’s game improves each and every year.

PG- D. Jackson- Fell in the draft and Danny snatched him as BPA. Needs to learn to become a pro while playing at Maine and work hard in the off-season, if he wants a roster spot in the future.


This team dealt with injuries and a tough early schedule and stands as a top 4 team in the East right now.  I think we can compete with the Toronto’s and the second tier of teams in the NBA right now. To get to the next level and truly compete with the Cleveland/GS’s of the NBA we need a big upgrade over Amir at one of the big man spots and a secondary go-to scorer to go with Thomas ( or when teams shut him down). That step may not happen till next season depending on what players may be up for trade this year.
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kdp59

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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by dboss on Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:34 am

kdp59

Since you did outstanding work on this it may be time for an update.  The two players that I think deserve some props are Crowder and the often overlooked Amir Johnson.

dboss
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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by kdp59 on Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:55 am

oh no...dredging up old stuff!

feel free to go ahead and do an update on it dboss ( or anyone else).

I'd rather see someone else's ideas on our roster as the regular season ends.
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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by dboss on Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:21 pm

Throughout the year this team has had their ups and downs but still managed to post a winning record of 24-21 against .500 plus teams.

I certainly did not expect them to win the EC but I also did not anticipate the Cavs playing so inconsistent being the defending champion.  All that should change now if they (the Cavs) can get out of the 2nd round.

As far as the Celtics are concerned they remain a team with several holes that have not been filled in yet.  There are three items on my wish list and they are the same ones I had coming into the season.

The Celtics lack a consistent scorer off the bench.  Our primary rotation players, Smart, Olynyk, Jerebko and Brown have been up and down all year.  To Brown's credit he has shown steady improvements but the other guys are just plain inconsistent.

Marcus Smart is one heck of a defensive specialist and has made countless game changing plays all season long.  The expectation was that his shooting would improve.  That has not happened.  His 3 point shooting percentage of .283 as well as his overall Field goal percentage of .359 are a major drag.  He seems to have lost the hitch in his shot but the stroke just is not there.  He has turned into a very reliable free throw shooter but that is the only time I am confident about his ability to score.  As I said his defense is great but I do not think his defense alone justifies the 30 MPG that he has been playing.  Brad is not likely to upset the apple cart during the playoffs but if Marcus is not more judicious with his shot selection he will become a negative factor in the playoffs.

KO in my opinion has yet to prove that he is a reliable player at either end of the court.  I think that his post defense has shown improvement but he is still pitifully slow with his lateral movements and getting out to the perimeter to challenge shooters.  He lacks confidence and doesn't even look for his shot on most plays.  His shooting has certainly not been off the charts at.354% from distance and he is a very average free throw shooter.  There have been too many games where he has simply disappeared.  Talk of him getting $12 million plus next time round is ambitious.  This is his 4th year so what you see is what you get.  I do not expect him to perform any better during the playoffs although that would be the measuring stick that should be use for getting  new contract.  Overall the Celtics cannot go too far when KO is your best big coming off the bench.

In an effort not to just single him out a more accurate assessment reveals serious deficiencies in our entire front line rotation 4/5)  

Jaylen Brown is developing at a nice pace and has shown some flashes of becoming  a solid player.  His regular season playing time should be useful during the playoffs but let us not overlook the fact that he is just a rookie.  The Celtics signed Gerald Green as a veteran SF and Brad should not hesitate to play him.

Last year Rozier got a chance to play in the playoffs but that was mainly because AB got hurt in game one.  Rozier has been in and then out of the rotation.  His playing time has dwindled this month.  The reason I think is that Brad wants to shorten his rotation.

I have not mentioned Jonas but just like the others he is good and bad, up and down but mostly down and woefullu non productive.

Who knows if Zeller will play or when.  Brad may or may not use him but it is difficult to imagine that he will be a factor.  

The third item on my wish list begins and ends with the coaching staff.  Brad is not a very good defensive coach and does not appear to have the ability to make in-game adjustment to counter what the opponents are doing.  He has not figured out how to take something or someway away.  Brad continues to allow his team to play in a funk for long periods of time and does not use his timeouts in a timely fashion.  

I think Boston will beat the Bulls.  After that they have no matchup advantage against any of the remaining teams.  Maybe Brad will learn as time goes on but right now he is not a very good defensive strategist or tactician.  Mess around like that in the playoffs and you are going to lose early.

We are over-matched athletically in the front court and we do not have a single player off the bench who can be relied on to play well.  

It is what it is.  DA still has a lot of work to do to upgrade this team.  They play hard and they play as a team but they simply are not talented enough off the bench to compete with the big boys.

Zeller, KO, Jerbko, Young should all be gone next year.  Basically they are all average to below average basketball players and we have far too many assets not to upgrade their positions.

dboss
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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by cowens/oldschool on Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:21 pm

very accurate assessment dboss, we are a flawed team that has relied on some great heroics by IT in the 4th to pull out a lot of games, someone would also usually step up, AB or Crowder or Al, we'll have to see if this formula can still work in the playoffs. Dboss talks about the defense, generally speaking our perimeter defense is pretty good, but our rebounding can be exploited, another factor is what is the strategy if the defense is geared to take away IT, what counter strategy does Stevens have ready? can we win with IT bogged down?
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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by kdp59 on Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:22 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:very accurate assessment dboss, we are a flawed team that has relied on some great heroics by IT in the 4th to pull out a lot of games, someone would also usually step up, AB or Crowder or Al, we'll have to see if this formula can still work in the playoffs. Dboss talks about the defense, generally speaking our perimeter defense is pretty good, but our rebounding can be exploited, another factor is what is the strategy if the defense is geared to take away IT, what counter strategy does Stevens have ready? can we win with IT bogged down?

I think at this point your questions have been answered.

on to Friday night I suppose
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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by cowens/oldschool on Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:21 pm

kdp59 wrote:
cowens/oldschool wrote:very accurate assessment dboss, we are a flawed team that has relied on some great heroics by IT in the 4th to pull out a lot of games, someone would also usually step up, AB or Crowder or Al, we'll have to see if this formula can still work in the playoffs. Dboss talks about the defense, generally speaking our perimeter defense is pretty good, but our rebounding can be exploited, another factor is what is the strategy if the defense is geared to take away IT, what counter strategy does Stevens have ready? can we win with IT bogged down?

I think at this point your questions have been answered.

on to Friday night I suppose


when Jaylen Brown started we went on a winning streak, I was hoping they would have kept him starting and had AB contributing off the bench and given Jaylen even more offensive opportunities, because I was afraid something like this, now, would happen.
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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by bobheckler on Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:33 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:
kdp59 wrote:
cowens/oldschool wrote:very accurate assessment dboss, we are a flawed team that has relied on some great heroics by IT in the 4th to pull out a lot of games, someone would also usually step up, AB or Crowder or Al, we'll have to see if this formula can still work in the playoffs. Dboss talks about the defense, generally speaking our perimeter defense is pretty good, but our rebounding can be exploited, another factor is what is the strategy if the defense is geared to take away IT, what counter strategy does Stevens have ready? can we win with IT bogged down?

I think at this point your questions have been answered.

on to Friday night I suppose


when Jaylen Brown started we went on a winning streak, I was hoping they would have kept him starting and had AB contributing off the bench and given Jaylen even more offensive opportunities, because I was afraid something like this, now, would happen.


Cow,

According to Brad (not me) the reason why he started Jaylen instead of Marcus is so that he could be surrounded by better players who could help cover up his rookie deficiencies and if he started Smart the backbone of the bench would be gone. It wasn't because Jaylen was ready to start. The return of AB, and the return of Brown to the bench, was supposed to be an upgrade to the lineup. Based upon how Bradley has played through 2 games in the playoffs it isn't looking that way.


bob


.

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Re: Thanks to dboss, I dug out my old roster breakdown and updated it.

Post by cowens/oldschool on Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:25 pm

bob I wasn't expecting us to be in first place EC at end of season, to me we need to develop the players ideally winning and learning the system and the game. When Eli Manning was a rookie, he wasn't ready and they played him anyway so he could get the reps as soon as possible to be ready sooner, it eventually worked out great. I wasn't expecting a deep run even after we got the #1 seed, anyone who knows me, knows I love AB's defense, but if you have a superior athlete/prospect with franchise abilities/potential you play him and let him play like the way Popovich groomed Kawhi. Jaylen should have been given a much bigger role starting as a 2, with AB still needed to help with his strengths, as he has a similar skill set and size of Kobe and DeRozen....I could go on and on with a slight 4-5 we needed a big freak wing at the 2, Jaylen should have been fed the ball enough so that he went for 25 at least 3 or 4 times by now.
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