The draft - Picks 1 through 4

Discussions on whether to hold or trade our number one pick will probably intensify as we get closer to draft day in late June.
 Below link list the number 1 through 4 picks dating back to 2000 - 17 years.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/2Bo3S

  I checked out each name to see if he was ever selected as an all star - and the age when 1st selected.  Many are still active, so the numbers are sure to change.

 * Number of years - 17
 * Number one pick -  9 have become all stars - One was not selected as an all star but did make all nba - average age 21.9 when 1st selected. - 58.8% ( for 10 players )
 * Number two pick -  2 have become all stars - average age when 1st selected - 23.5 - 11.8%
 * Number three pick - 5 have become all stars - average age when 1st selected - 23.6 - 29.4%
 * number four pick - 3 have become all stars - average age when 1st selected - 21.7

      If the Celtics don't land the number one pick - 75% chance that we won't - then the probability of landing an all star caliber player reduces to 19.6 % (10 divided by 51 )
 I know that it's only a probability prediction - but I for one am not very comfortable with that potential.

 swish

    Correction to number 2 pick - 3 have become all stars - average age when 1st selected - 25.7 - 17.6%

  swish

Swish,

Thanks for starting this thread.  I was going to put together a thread that addressed the top picks in a month or so, but we'll use this one.

I'm not a fan of the annual crap shoot, also known as "the NBA draft" so I'm not as sanguine as many others are.  It still comes down to scouting and having options.  You could have the #1 pick and choose a dog like Anthony Bennett.  You could see talent but not be able to draft it because your pick is too late or have none left.  Danny trading for the rights to Rondo is an example and so is Denver drafting Rudy Gobert #27 and then trading him on draft day to Utah for a 2nd round pick and cash (and Cowens thinks Danny screwed up by not taking him?  Imagine how Nugget fans feel.  They actually had him and gave him up for nothing!).

Maybe one of these days, when I have nothing to do, I'll sit down and look at NBA All-Stars and All-Leaguers who were drafted by a team and stayed with them for most of their HOF careers.  Kobe, Pierce (I did say "most"), Stockton, Malone, Hakeem.  I'm sure there is a nice little list there but not too big.  My point is that just because you draft a player that is a future All-Star doesn't mean they will be an All-Star for you, or for as long as it takes to bring a championship.  What if Danny hadn't been able to pull off that coup in the summer of 2007?  Pierce would have been traded, that's what.  No Pierce, no KG because Ray Allen alone would not have been enough.  Joe Johnson was drafted by the Celtics, didn't do much for us, but went on to a 7x All-Star and All NBA 3rd team career.  Chauncey Billups is another example.  So, there are two examples of the type of players you are looking for, that we drafted, but didn't deliver for us.

As far as our odds of getting an All-Star it gets easier if you get the pick of the litter.  You can pick wrong, but it's your pick and not what's leftover and our odds are better than anybody else's since we will pick before most.  


bob


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And here are the numbers for a player selected to the all-nba team
* number one pick - 8 have become all-nba - average age when 1st selected - 22
* number two pick - 3 have become all-nba - average age when 1st selected - 25
* number three pick - 5 have become all-nba - average age when 1st selected - 23.6
* number four pick - 3 have become all-nba - average age when 1st selected - 22

swish

We often refer to the draft as a crap shoot but I think I look at the lottery that way more so than the actual draft.  There is vast amounts of information available to teams about prospects.  

What it really comes down to is making solid draft picks based on the information that you have gathered.  This process and final decision becomes a crap shoot when you choose the wrong player.

just finished watching the Bucks take game one from the Raptors and cannot help but come to the obvious conclusion that Danny blew the chance to land the Greek Freak.  There is nothing about KO that I have seen in 4 years that surprises me.  All the caution  signs were there that clearly indicated that KO had little chance of becoming a great player but DA moved up anyways by passing the Greek Freak and the rest is history.  GM's make for crappy drafts.

dboss

dboss wrote:We often refer to the draft as a crap shoot but I think I look at the lottery that way more so than the actual draft.  There is vast amounts of information available to teams about prospects.  

What it really comes down to is making solid draft picks based on the information that you have gathered.  This process and final decision becomes a crap shoot when you choose the wrong player.

just finished watching the Bucks take game one from the Raptors and cannot help but come to the obvious conclusion that Danny blew the chance to land the Greek Freak.  There is nothing about KO that I have seen in 4 years that surprises me.  All the caution  signs were there that clearly indicated that KO had little chance of becoming a great player but DA moved up anyways by passing the Greek Freak and the rest is history.  GM's make for crappy drafts.

dboss

dboss

I watched the game - what a talent - so talented in all aspects of the game. When I think back to the game that I grew up with back in the 40's-50's 60-'s I try to envision just how completely he would have dominated. Incredible skill level would have seen him rule at all 5 positions. I've got to record that game so that I can make a more accurate comparison with his skill level compared to the stars of those early years.


Yep, Danny passed on him - but then so didn't 13 other general managers. It's not an exact science and its precisely why some great ones slip through the cracks.

swish

Swish

I agree that it is not an exact science but you should rely on the evidence to make your decision.  DA has a history of ignoring the obvious in search of making a new discovery.  The laws of physics will not change.  So if predraft information indicates that player X has a back issue coupled with weight problems..hit the breaks.  If predraft info reveals physical limitation that are needed to do the job (must be able to reach in all directions).. hit the breaks or if predraft info tells you that a player is slow and is a very inconsistent shooter..hit the breaks.  

I like Danny but I would never become a passenger while he was driving because he blows through too many stop signs.

dboss

dboss wrote:Swish

I agree that it is not an exact science but you should rely on the evidence to make your decision.  DA has a history of ignoring the obvious in search of making a new discovery.  The laws of physics will not change.  So if predraft information indicates that player X has a back issue coupled with weight problems..hit the breaks.  If predraft info reveals physical limitation that are needed to do the job (must be able to reach in all directions).. hit the breaks or if predraft info tells you that a player is slow and is a very inconsistent shooter..hit the breaks.  

I like Danny but I would never become a passenger while he was driving because he blows through too many stop signs.

dboss

how many GM's miss players to single out wiffs by Danny and his staff ignores multiple GM's that do the same thing.

He does as well as many and better than most.

beat

dboss wrote:Swish

I agree that it is not an exact science but you should rely on the evidence to make your decision.  DA has a history of ignoring the obvious in search of making a new discovery.  The laws of physics will not change.  So if predraft information indicates that player X has a back issue coupled with weight problems..hit the breaks.  If predraft info reveals physical limitation that are needed to do the job (must be able to reach in all directions).. hit the breaks or if predraft info tells you that a player is slow and is a very inconsistent shooter..hit the breaks.  

I like Danny but I would never become a passenger while he was driving because he blows through too many stop signs.

dboss

The predraft evidence on the GF absolutely did not exist. He didn't play for any US college. He had so-so numbers for a second tier Greek league.

If there ever was a BIG RED STOP SIGN, it was attached to Giannis. Milwaukee took the chance, but for a small money franchise, that was a no brainer. They had nothing to lose and everything to gain by taking the pick.

They may have hit the lottery a second time with Thon Maker. Again, Milwaukee can afford to make those kinds of choices. Not many on this board (except one guy) was willing to stick their necks out with him at the time.

It would be interesting to go back in our old threads to see who on this board actually wanted Danny to take Giannis at the time. I'll bet it was a very small group.

beat wrote:

dboss wrote:Swish

I agree that it is not an exact science but you should rely on the evidence to make your decision.  DA has a history of ignoring the obvious in search of making a new discovery.  The laws of physics will not change.  So if predraft information indicates that player X has a back issue coupled with weight problems..hit the breaks.  If predraft info reveals physical limitation that are needed to do the job (must be able to reach in all directions).. hit the breaks or if predraft info tells you that a player is slow and is a very inconsistent shooter..hit the breaks.  

I like Danny but I would never become a passenger while he was driving because he blows through too many stop signs.

dboss

how many GM's miss players to single out wiffs by Danny and his staff ignores multiple GM's that do the same thing.

He does as well as many and better than most.

beat

Beat

Many GM's passed on Giannis and DA was one of them.  He gets no pass for missing like the others.  The Celts had him on their radar along with other prospects.  That means that they had a profile on him.  The two negatives were that he needs to add more strength and 2nd there was some concern about the level of competition he faced.  Everything else was superlative.  He was Durant like long with handle that could score and defend.

Perhaps it is less about them passing on him and more about who they passed on him for.  KO a player that will Never be a starter and at best is a midlevel rotation player that is not dependable.

KO came as a 7 footer with short arms, slow lateral movements limited athleticism and limited upside.  

Jared Sullinger was fat and slow and had a bad back. All factors known to DA

James Young had a noticeably weak handle at KY.  Danny could have drafted Rodney Hood.  Both lefties were similar and from equally elite programs.  That was a  another miss because it was known that Young coukd only effectively use his left.

Marcus Smart comes out of OKC with an obvious problem in shooting the basket and while being a tenacious defender it was also noted that he was not particularly quick.  Who is better Marcus Smart or Zack Levine?  Levine was known to be a better offensive player than Snart with top end athleticism.  Another missed opportunity despite how much I like MS.

The point is that drafting is not a crap shoot.

dboss

Hindsight can make drafting a cinch - but in the real world,unfortunately, you don't get to make your picks 3 or more years after they have been in the nba.

swish