Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Page 2 of 2 Previous  1, 2

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:40 am

wideclyde wrote:The article was poor, but I fully expect for the Cs to unleash Smart at some time this next season.  I am guessing that he improves once again in this off season and those results will be seen before Christmas.  Then it will only take an injury or a slump for Stevens to turn to Smart.

Cow,

I liked your analogy to Tony Allen, but I think that Smart is already more valuable than Allen ever was while with the Cs.  It begins with his better ball handling as you mentioned, but goes way beyond just the ball handling.  Smart, in only his third year, has been called out by Stevens many times for doing so much more than playing defense. I fully agree with the coach's thoughts, but never saw Allen do much more than his super defense.  Of course, I do not have the tapes of Allen in action, but do not remember him as a leader or an instigator like Smart has become well before his fourth season

I'd said since he was drafted that Smart's FLOOR was Tony Allen with better ball-handling skills. A guy who would be a perfect 6th man/3rd guard in that he can backup both guard spots and bring all-league D to the table. In 3 seasons Smart has been just this. He's been getting 3rd guard mins from the start, 28.4 per avg in 3 seasons. With Avery gone he will probably be asked to slightly expand upon his 30 mpg role of a season ago, unless natural SF's Brown and Hayward are better options at SG.

Marcus has been little bit better than I anticipated at defending forwards and in being an instigator who comes up with clutch plays. About what I thought he'd be in leadership and D on big guards. A little worse defending PG's and getting to the rim than I thought. Much worse at shooting. I thought his FT improvement over 3 years (65%-78%-81%) was what we would see from the field after he put up 41% from 2 and 34% from 3 as a rookie. But his shooting from inside the arc has stayed the same and from 3 he has gotten worse. If he can max out around 47/35/83 splits that is all we ask. He's a better leader, distributor, instigator, ball handler and defender of forwards than TA, but a worse finisher, 2 point shooter, above the rim athlete and defender of smaller PG's than TA.
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:03 am

When drafted I felt Smart's CEILING was a Billups, Dennis Johnson, Fat Lever type guard with the body of a linebacker and potential for seasons with 14-17ppg, 7-9apg, 4-6rpg over being a 20+ point/10+ assist all-star PG. There is still a chance for this I guess.

Billups was the only one of those guys who was a good shooter from deep. He spent two years in college (like Marcus) and hit about the same % from 3 as a rookie (.329). It wasn't until his 7th season and 5th team at age 26 that Chauncey truly emerged into the force we remember him as with Detroit. This started off his 'prime' seasons 1-3 years later than most, but it last 1-3 seasons longer as well from age 26-34. Despite being an underachiever in Denver and Minnesota early in his career, and being given up on too soon by the Celtics and Raptors, Billups improved his 3 point shooting each season years 2-5 (if you throw out only playing 13 game in his 3rd season). He went for 36% in '99, 38% in '01 and 39% in '02. If that were the type of shooting improvement we saw from Smart the last two seasons everybody would be talking future superstar. If he'd have been connecting on say 2.5 of 6.5 attempts a game instead of 1.2 of 4.1. That's an extra 4 points per game.

Maybe Smart will have a reverse Dennis Johnson career? Johnson spent the end of his prime from '85-'89 as a PG providing tough D, clutch high IQ plays and 14p, 6.5a, 3.5r and 1.3 steals for title contenders. He only shot like 20% from 3! Early in his career (when the 3 point shot didn't exist or was a little used novelty), DJ was a SG putting up 17p, 4.5r, 4a and 1.7s from '79-'83 while netting finals MVP in '79. If Smart can ever improve his shooting to an almost Billups like improvement (maybe 36% instead of 39%), then I could see his age 28-33 seasons being spent as a SG bringing his tough D against wings. If he's been a bit of a disappointment defending quick guards age 21-23, then when he loses a step that will be even more noticeable.
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:33 am

dboss wrote:Smart will be who he is.  A tough defender that is offensively challenged.

When he hits a three point shot there will be a collective.  "Gee he made it."

He is up for a raise after this season and Danny will be looking to move him before then.  This is his last year with the Celtics.  


My reasoning is that he will never be a solid offensive player because he cannot put the 3 ball in the hole.  He is not going to improve measurably.  He is not a high end point guard to run an offense where his offensive woes could be overlooked.  He is exactly who I though he was coming out of college and another questionable draft lottery pick by Danny Ainge that came into the NBA as a challenged shooter and has proven to be a challenged shooter.

If the Celtics want to get better they have to shoot the ball better (for those that favor offense over defense)  

My hope is that Jaylen Brown does not become a shooter like Jeff Green.  And I hope that Jason Tatum's mid-range game is good enough to compensate for his below average shooting from distance. I also hope that Terry Rozier will replicate his 2017 playoff 3 point shooting and not his dreadful season numbers

If the Boston Celtics truly want to compete with the elite teams in this league they simply must become a better 3 point shooting team.

The Celtics are not likely to resign Marcus Smart unless he shoots the ball much much better this year.  It is unlikely that he will shoot the ball much better this year therefore it is very likely that he will not get a new contract.

dboss

Gotta disagree here.

The only way I see this happening is if Smart stays almost exactly the same player he was the past 2 seasons in a contract year, with Avery gone, when more is expected of him, AND he asks for too much in free agency or gets a max offer sheet (as a restricted free agent) AND Rozier really establishes himself as an elite perimeter defender. I don't see any teams willing to offer him even a near max deal. Remember, the spending frenzy of 2016 when the 2018 cap was expected to be 112-116 million has already hurt MANY teams now that the cap is set to be 99.7m instead. Next summer will be a slow market full of short-term smaller cash value deals once the top 12-15 names are signed.

Danny's traded Bradley instead of Smart. The Celtics CANNOT afford to lose both of these perimeter defenders.

The timeline to contend for a title (likely against Golden State) with an IT-Smart-Hayward-Crowder(or Morris)-big man X-Horford vet core was to be the 2019-2021 finals. The youngest of those guys would be Smart ages 25-27 and the oldest Horford ages 32-34. The rest would all be in their late 20's prime. Some may have pushed that time table up to 2018 with the Kyrie drama, but even if the C's get past the Cavs they'd be crushed next June. They'll need to move one of Crowder/Morris + Baynes and 1-2 of their own later 1st rd picks for a legit 2-way big in his prime to play alongside Horford and get Brown, Tatum, Zizic and Yabu additional experience before they can compete with the GSW. Then those kids plus the two picks we have that should each be in the top 12 (hopefully top 5) will slowly supplant the vets as they enter their prime years and keep the team contending as long as Wyc is willing to pay the tax for it.
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by mrkleen09 on Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:55 am

Interesting article comparing the early careers of Kyle Lowry and Marcus

Not sure I totally buy the comparisons, but the idea that he is making improvements and becoming a better player year after year, I totally agree.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/05/23/marcus-smart-celtics-future/

avatar
mrkleen09

Posts : 2713
Join date : 2009-10-16
Age : 48

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:28 pm

Going back to Danny's choice of Smart over Avery, this move told me several things:

1. Avery wanted to get paid.

- He was not going to take a team friendly deal for the rest of his prime since (in his mind) he already did that in 2014 with the 4/32 even if fans were split on it being a good deal or not. Had AB just played out the '14-'15 season on his 4m or so qualifying offer instead of getting his extension to net 7.1m that season instead he could have gotten btwn 3/39 or 4/60 the following summer, easily. In 2015 Danny Green signed for 4/45 (a noted team discount) and Monta Ellis 4/44. That was AB's floor. Dragic got 5/90 and Brandon Knight 5/80. In light of those contracts, Bradley could probably have commanded 3/48 or so and netted himself 52 million instead of 32m and hit free agency again at the same time (in 2018). He definitely realized he left 12-20 mil on the table btwn 2014-18. He wasn't staying here for a 5/75 team discount.

2. Ainge did AB a favor by sending him to a team that could pay him.

- Detroit would have given Caldwell-Pope something like 4 years 75-85 million had they not traded for AB. That franchise rarely builds through free agency is is already capped out so they are not going to be a tight against the cap club lowballing free agents summer of '18. AB saved them 13-15 million over KCP/Morris this year and is a better player than KCP. That 70-85 mil of unused KCP extension cash is earmarked for him. Bradley would be wise to take something like 3/75 over 5/100 since Detroit probably isn't winning a title those years. He gets his cash and can then go look to sign with a contender before his age 31 season when he'll still be young and useful enough to nail a solid 3-4 year contract.

3. Isaiah Thomas is going nowhere

- If the C's were uncertain about retaining Thomas past 2018 they would have moved Crowder instead of Bradley. At the time of the trade they had 2 guys who could easily play all 48 mins at SF in Hayward and Brown, plus the #3 pick in Tatum and Semi/Nader for deep depth. If they were at all worried about being able to afford IT, even at the crazy stupid cost of say Hayward's deal (4/127) they prob would have traded Crowder for a worse player than Morris (albeit more of a pure PF) making >4.5m and ran that guy out there with Tatum, Semi and more of Horford at the 4. Then more mins would be demanded from Baynes and Zizic at the 5 but keeping Bradley as their starting SG would've made for more consistency and elite small-ball lineups. Bradley and Thomas would've have hit free agency at the same time and if Thomas did not change his tune and agree to the 4/110 type deal I think he ultimately will/should take, then Bradley would be there to scoop up 4/90 or so of that. Smart would be retained at all costs as the starting PG moving forward. Yet in either scenario the C's lose one of Bradley or IT for nothing and get less back for Crowder than they did for AB. Not good. Now they have Morris AND Crowder on the cheap for 2018-19 and can use one of those two contracts as part of a package for that much needed big man.  

4. The Bradley cash will now go to Smart.

- The C's must have known Bradley was not going to stay here past 2018 for the most they could afford to give him (if they traded Smart) which in my opinion was something like a 5/80 deal to keep him here through his age 32 season. Smart almost certainly can be retained for 5/85 since next summer is 2018 not 2016. In fact, the C's can play the restricted game with Smart that we've seen keep many guys like Noel and Plumlee in limbo all summer and forced to take smaller deals than they wanted. I'd be surprised if anyone offers Smart more than 4/60 and would actually expect him to sign for some sort of 2+1 deal at like 3/45 with the final year a team option the same year Hayward has one. At that point the cap will have gone up, Thomas will be in decline, Horford's current deal will be over and the team will 100% know what they can afford moving forward and what Smart will be entering his age 27 season. He'll hopefully still improve entering 2017-18, but he will be what he is by 2020.

5. The C's will have an elite defender to throw at Curry.

- Smart ages 24-27 can defend and hopefully seriously limit a 30+ year old Steph in hypothetical 2019-21 NBA finals match-up. Where AB was needed more for younger quicker PG's like Kyrie and Wall, bullying the older, slightly slower Steph is the perfect job for Smart. That, and Hayward at least matching the older Durant point for point and the C's youth movement bench ripping apart GS's aging capped out one, are the biggest keys to the Celtics winning a title over them. Smart is going nowhere.

** Personal Notes**

- Back in 2014 I was hoping the C's gave Bradley a 5 year deal between 40-50 million when many fans thought 4/32 was too much. Having him locked up two more years after this would have been HUGE and just meant that Smart or Crowder would have had to be traded for probably a 1st rd pick in the 20's and a PF making 1.5-3m in return. Oh well.

- The same situation could have happened had AB played under the 4m QO in '14-'15 then signed for like 5/55 summer of '15, getting him the $ he lost. He'd be paid roughly 11-12-13m per the next 3 seasons, potentially the last 3 of his prime as an elite perimeter defender taking him to his age 30 season. This time, with AB set to make 11m instead of 9-10m, Crowder would have had to be traded for little to no return salary and Smart would have stayed. This could have been done and Horford/Hayward still here with just no Jerebko last season. In anticipation of an AB deal that likely keeps him and Smart here for years maybe Danny drafts Dekker or Bobby Portis instead of Rozier in '15? Those were the 2 guys I wanted in that draft.

- I think IT will sign a 2+1 max deal that pays him the 33-35 million per year max he can get with the C's 8% hometown discount raise, and then the 3rd year is an option year the same year Hayward has his option and Horford's deal is up. The C's will tell Thomas that if Hayward leaves, his 37m option or w/e it is will be picked up as long as he ends the season healthy and playing close to his '16-'18 production. If Hayward stays his new extension will determine if Thomas stays or not. Gordon already proved he needed all 30 mil or w/e in 2017-18 to come here over taking 27-28m and allowing for Bradley to be retained. Maybe by 2020 if the C's won or came up just short of a title he will be more willing to pull a Durant to let vets like Thomas and Horford finish their careers as Celtics rather than demanding a roughly 5/200 max that forces one or both of those guys to walk?


Last edited by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:28 pm

mrkleen09 wrote:Interesting article comparing the early careers of Kyle Lowry and Marcus

Not sure I totally buy the comparisons, but the idea that he is making improvements and becoming a better player year after year, I totally agree.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/05/23/marcus-smart-celtics-future/


Billups is the better comparison.

Lowry is an offense first midget.
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by mrkleen09 on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:36 pm

I agree. The comparison I took was the - not all good players are finished products after 3 or 4 years.
avatar
mrkleen09

Posts : 2713
Join date : 2009-10-16
Age : 48

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:52 pm

mrkleen09 wrote:I agree.  The comparison I took was the - not all good players are finished products after 3 or 4 years.

Very true

Bigger guards historically age better than smaller ones. Lowry is an outlier in that regard.

Jason Kidd is another 2 years in college big PG whose 3 point %'s in his 20's was in the high 20's/low 30's and in his 30's it was in the mid-high 30's. Marcus needs to do what Kidd and Billups did, hopefully at the faster rate Chauncey did this and not waiting until his last couple of years as a Net the way Jason did.
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by bobheckler on Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:45 pm

BleedGreen wrote:
mrkleen09 wrote:I agree.  The comparison I took was the - not all good players are finished products after 3 or 4 years.

Very true

Bigger guards historically age better than smaller ones. Lowry is an outlier in that regard.

Jason Kidd is another 2 years in college big PG whose 3 point %'s in his 20's was in the high 20's/low 30's and in his 30's it was in the mid-high 30's. Marcus needs to do what Kidd and Billups did, hopefully at the faster rate Chauncey did this and not waiting until his last couple of years as a Net the way Jason did.


Bleed,

Jason Kidd was NOT a good shooter when he came out of Cal.  He ended up with a career 3pt fg% of 34.9%, not bad for his day, and retired 8th all-time in 3pt fgm.  Billups was a bit slower to ramp up than Kidd, he shot 32.9%, 33.9% and 31.6% his first 3 years, but ended up with a career 3pt fg% of 38.7% which is quite good.

My concern with Smart is not that he has a horrible shooting percentage so far, to be honest I'm expecting an underwhelming performance from Tatum this year because he is new to the NBA 3, my worry with Smart is that he doesn't look good shooting them.  Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups and Jayson Tatum all have shooting forms that gave/give me confidence that they will find the range eventually.  The only time I see that with Marcus Smart, and don't ask me why this is, is when it's crunch time.  He seems to be a much better shooter when the game is on the line than when it isn't.  I suppose that's a plus, better that than the opposite, but that's when Smart seems to hit them.  Hopefully he'll work that out in his head soon.


bob


.
avatar
bobheckler

Posts : 32034
Join date : 2009-10-28

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by BleedGreen on Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:55 pm

bobheckler wrote:
BleedGreen wrote:
mrkleen09 wrote:I agree.  The comparison I took was the - not all good players are finished products after 3 or 4 years.

Very true

Bigger guards historically age better than smaller ones. Lowry is an outlier in that regard.

Jason Kidd is another 2 years in college big PG whose 3 point %'s in his 20's was in the high 20's/low 30's and in his 30's it was in the mid-high 30's. Marcus needs to do what Kidd and Billups did, hopefully at the faster rate Chauncey did this and not waiting until his last couple of years as a Net the way Jason did.


Bleed,

Jason Kidd was NOT a good shooter when he came out of Cal.  He ended up with a career 3pt fg% of 34.9%, not bad for his day, and retired 8th all-time in 3pt fgm.  Billups was a bit slower to ramp up than Kidd, he shot 32.9%, 33.9% and 31.6% his first 3 years, but ended up with a career 3pt fg% of 38.7% which is quite good.

My concern with Smart is not that he has a horrible shooting percentage so far, to be honest I'm expecting an underwhelming performance from Tatum this year because he is new to the NBA 3, my worry with Smart is that he doesn't look good shooting them.  Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups and Jayson Tatum all have shooting forms that gave/give me confidence that they will find the range eventually.  The only time I see that with Marcus Smart, and don't ask me why this is, is when it's crunch time.  He seems to be a much better shooter when the game is on the line than when it isn't.  I suppose that's a plus, better that than the opposite, but that's when Smart seems to hit them.  Hopefully he'll work that out in his head soon.

bob


Bob,

Agree with your assessment of Smart. He's a little too ADD and tight at the start of games and then seems to loosen up and focus towards the end.

Not sure your assessment of Billups and Kidd makes sense.

Kidd was still shooting 33.7%, 32.1%, 34.1% and 32.1% 2000-2004 age 27-31. He took WAY longer to ramp it up than Billups. Starting around age 31 he shot 34-42% from 3 the rest of his career.

I posted earlier what Billups shot from 3 his years 2-5 seasons (throwing out the 17.1% he shot in 1999-00 when he only played 13 games). Those numbers were 36.2% in '99, 37.6% in '01 and 39.4% in '02 his age 22-25 seasons. He ramped it up pretty quick. You posted the wrong numbers.
avatar
BleedGreen

Posts : 113
Join date : 2017-06-24
Age : 44

Back to top Go down

Re: Unleashing Marcus Would be Wicked Smaht

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 2 Previous  1, 2

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum