Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

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Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by bobheckler on Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:37 pm

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2017/08/06/predicting-boston-celtics-minutes/




Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes



by Joshua Bateman


11 minutes agoFollow @JoshSportsSpeak


The Boston Celtics could have a chaotic rotation once again, here are what their minutes might look like

The Boston Celtics are going to look like a different team from last year. There will be at least two different starters, and a completely revamped bench lead by the youth movement.

Some players will stay consistent with what they were doing last season, but Brad Stevens is going to have the tough task of figuring out how he is going to use his minutes.

Stevens has always been known for his deep and often chaotic rotations. He will always be experimenting with combinations, and chances are minutes will be all over the place for multiple players.

That being said, the Celtics have the most established roster of the Stevens era, and when it matters most you should expect the rotation to shrink a bit. Stevens will need to feel it out, but once the rotation is settled it should have a bit more consistency than last year, if everyone stays healthy of course.

Minutes often change depending on the matchup and the situation, especially for bench players, but it will be important for these guys to get comfortable, especially for a second unit that is going to be lead by first and second year players with little experience together.

Here are the kind of minutes you should expect from each player currently on the roster, even if they may not all be there on opening day.





Daniel Theis: 5-10 minutes

Theis is an exciting idea for the Celtics. He has potential to be a great shooter and potential to be a great defender, but it is impossible to have great expectations before seeing him in the NBA.

I do not expect any kind of central role for Theis, and he will probably have an inconsistent role off the bench.

Stevens has a lot of bigs that he needs to evaluate and balance on the second unit, and a lot of them are young. Theis will get his opportunities and will probably have some games where he can approach 20 minutes.

That being said, it would be tough to expect him to be at least as effective as Jerebko was, and unless he is a surprise and his shooting and defense perfectly translates against NBA competition, he will be fading in and out of the rotation all season long.





Abdel Nader: 5-10 minutes

Nader has done a phenomenal job excelling against lesser competition. In a young front court that is very unsettled, he could bring some potential stability for Stevens. That being said, he has never excelled in any area to be much of a difference maker.

Nader is a depth piece for the Celtics. He has been in the Celtics system for long enough that Stevens will be more comfortable having him fill in. That being said, he will not be a difference maker on either end, and Stevens cannot afford to waste too many minutes on him.

There is a good chance that Stevens will shorten his rotation now that the starting lineup is better and the second unit is so young, and Nader is certainly one of the players that will suffer when those deep bench minutes are cut.





Shane Larkin: 8-12 minutes

The Celtics still have a lot of guard depth on their bench, but there is very little ball handling depth. If Smart is in the starting lineup, then the only other natural ball handler is Rozier.

If Rozier is not able to handle a large role, then Larkin will be there to fill in. He has some NBA experience, but is unfamiliar with what Stevens is running.

If he can get comfortable, and can figure out how Stevens would want him to run the offense, then he fits into a position where the Celtics need extra depth.

With fewer options at what he does in particular, there is more potential for Larkin to have somewhat of a consistent role.

A lot could depend on whether or not Smart starts. Either way, Smart will end up spending a lot of minutes with the first unit, and it will be a lot easier to do that if Stevens knows Larkin can run the offense on the second unit.





Semi Ojeleye: 15 minutes

Ojeleye is already a fan favorite, and has tremendous upside to have a great impact on the Celtics this year. With the state of their front court, he could be one of the top options off the bench, and could be essential to a small ball lineup.

If Ojeleye is actually capable of defending NBA centers, then you can expect those minutes to sky rocket. That being said, there will probably be some sort of transition period, making it more difficult for Stevens to keep him in for extended periods of time.

The Celtics have been looking for a versatile stretch forward like Ojeleye for a while, and he will certainly get his chance to prove he can fill that role.

It will not go perfectly all the way through, but Ojeleye is starting to gain some momentum and if he can bring some shooting and some defense then he can carve out a consistent role off the bench for the Celtics.





Guerschon Yabusele: 15 minutes

Yabusele is in an almost identical position to Ojeleye. Yabusele does have that extra season overseas. Unfortunately, he was put there because he was so young, and the age factor will make the gap between him and Ojeleye quite close.

The same also goes for him, he offers a lot of things that the Celtics value tremendously. He will not always do all those things well, but if Stevens can find a balance between Yabusele and Ojeleye on the second unit, then they could solidify that versatile big position.

It is too early to expect him to have a huge role, but there really are not enough front court options to say that he will not be consistently seeing minutes.

How much Stevens can trust him and how long he can stay in should change throughout the year, but he would have to be quite a disaster to fall out of the rotation entirely.





Terry Rozier: 15-20 minutes

Rozier is once again a difficult player to gauge for the Celtics. After his performance in the playoffs last season, you can anticipate that Stevens will finally feature him consistently in the rotation during the regular season.

With the lack of ball handlers, he will have an opportunity to control the second unit offense, and that will be crucial in freeing up how Stevens can use Smart.

Rozier is still one of the most established and experienced players coming off the bench (within the Celtics system) and that trust alone should carry him for a while.

Rozier plays with the energy, he brings defense and he is becoming balanced on offense. It would be a shame to see Rozier disappear behind the depth once again, but things should be different this season with a potentially huge role off the bench on the horizon.





Aron Baynes: 20 minutes

Baynes is still under consideration for starting next to Horford, but that should not change his minutes that much. As a starter or off the bench, the Celtics will consistently use Baynes. They do not have traditional big options, and everyone knows how important it is for them to get that rebounding and interior presence.

Baynes will not be useful for a lot of small ball lineups. His inability to shoot drastically limits his upside in the rotation, but he fills too important of a role to not get minutes.

If will often depend on situations and matchups, and what areas are a problem for that current game. Baynes will still come into that Johnson type role as he will bring value in his areas of strength.

Baynes will not be a difference maker for the Celtics, but he will be an important part of a lot of lineups that Stevens will want to use this season.





Ante Zizic: 15-20 minutes

Zizic will have a role similar to that of Baynes, and will also have that outside chance at the starting lineup. Again, it is hard for bigs without shooting to have a massive role on the Celtics, but thee are the only two traditional bigs on the team, and they will both have a role.

Zizic has the additional risk to fall further behind because of his age. He was seen as an NBA ready rebounder even before he went overseas. He will be looking to have an immediate impact and that rebounding alone will get him into the rotation.

The problem is that he has a greater risk for the mental mistakes, and that can kill a players minutes. The Celtics cannot afford to have him out of the rotation, but there is little upside for him to be one of the top bigs for this team.

There is a lot of excitement about Zizic, and he will go a long ways in helping the rebounding problems. If, however, he wants to consistently be a featured player in the rotation for more than rebounding, he will have a lot of work to do with his offensive arsenal.





Jayson Tatum: 20 minutes

Tatum is a rookie but he is ready to contribute on day one. He is remarkably polished on the offensive end, and can use his length to be disruptive on defense. It would be a big surprise to see him in the starting lineup, but he is going to be the featured scorer off the bench.

There is potential for those minutes to go up, but that will be entirely predicated on defense. Tatum is an NBA ready rookie, but not in every phase of the game. There will be a transition period on the defensive end and that will ultimately limit his overall minutes.

Tatum will, however, be a main offensive focus for the second unit, and with how much that second unit will need him offensively, he should have a safe and consistent role for the majority of the season.

There is a lot of youth on the second unit, but no one else has the offensive potential of Tatum. The Celtics will need to continue to go to him, and if he can avoid being a liability on defense then his minutes will keep increasing as the season goes on.





Jaylen Brown: 20-25 minutes

Brown has been making noise with everything he does this offseason. He is going to be considered to start next to  Thomas, but chances are he will be helping lead that youth movement on the second unit.

While Brown still cannot score the way Tatum will already be able to, his defense will earn him more minutes. Brown is comfortable, and after the playoffs Stevens knows he can trust him in any situation.

Brown has worked on his ball handling, and his versatility allows him to do pretty much whatever he wants on the court.

Brown always plays within what Stevens wants him to do, and the days of going in and out of the rotation should be far behind him.

Brown could end up being one of the most important players on the team this year, and unless he starts to regress in certain areas, it should only be a matter of time before he is getting up to the 25 minutes per game.





Marcus Smart: 30 minutes

Whether he is starting or coming off the bench, Smart’s role is solidified, and his minutes will be set in stone. With the loss of Bradley, his defense becomes even more important, and it would be shocking to see Smart’s minutes dip from a season ago.

Either he will be the defensive key to the starting unit, and he will be the primary ball handler for the second unit. He will always be crucial to small ball lineups, and his defensive versatility is not something the Celtics can hope to get out of anyone else on the roster.

The Celtics would love to see the shooting get better, in which case his minutes could get even higher. That being said, it is impossible to trust his shooting to improve, meaning it will be his defense and play making that will ensure he stays in the lineup.

The Celtics already know who many different things Smart does to help this team win, and they cannot afford to have him off the court for too long, even if he is not on the starting unit.





Marcus Morris: 20-25 minutes

Morris is another player being considered for the starting lineup, and his shooting could earn him some serious minutes. The problem is hat he is still undersized and he will need to get comfortable in the offensive system.

There are a lot of ways that the Celtics will use Morris, and he will be a part of pretty much any top offensive lineup. His limitations will ensure that Stevens does continue to go to other options.

Stevens plays around with a lot of different combinations, and there are certain situations where an undersized stretch forward will not work.

If Morris can get comfortable, then he could be in line for a career year with the Celtics. Even if that is the case, the Celtics have so many different and unknown options in their front court that it will be hard for anyone other than Horford to get a lot of minutes.

Morris should have a consistent role secured on the Celtics, but he has no chance of being near the team leaders in minutes per game.





Jae Crowder: 30 minutes

Crowder may have to deal with a slight decrease in minutes because of how many wings the team has now. It is not just Hayward, because both Brown and Tatum play that kind of role off the bench.

I still do expect Crowder to start and his role to remain almost exactly the same. The difference will be that there are other options now for different lineups. Stevens may try other small ball combinations, and that could cause his minutes to dip a bit.

Crowder has eclipsed the 30 minutes per game threshold the last two years with the Celtics, and he has a chance to maintain that. Crowder will have to do more to keep those minutes now though.

Crowder is still in the lead for the role he fills, but there are more options behind him now, and if Crowder starts to lose a step on defense or the shooting dips at all, then Stevens will have options other than sticking with him.

In any case, Crowder is still going to be one of the most important players on the team, even if far too many fans do not even think he should be starting.






Al Horford: 35 minutes

As the only stable piece currently in the front court, Horford is one of the most likely players to see his minutes increase. Stevens also has a better idea of how he needs to use him from the start, and there is no reason for Horford’s role not to increase next year.

The Celtics need Horford for everything they want to do. He opens everything up on offense with his play making and his floor spacing, and he is their best interior defender, even if he does not bring the rebounding.

It would be a big surprise to see him break 35 minutes per game, largely because Stevens always lowers minutes to keep him players fresh. On top of that, a lot could depend on how the rest of the front court does.

There is a ton of uncertainty in the front court after Horford, and how well they work out will dictate how much more Stevens will need to lean on Horford.

It is really easy to see how important Horford is for the Celtics, and it would not be a surprise at all to see him lead the team in minutes played.






Gordon Hayward : 35 minutes

Hayward is going to a part of everything the Celtics want to do. They are going to run their offense in order to bring the best out of him, and they are going to test how far they can push his position versatility.

Hayward will be up there with anyone on the team in minutes per game, and it is hard to imagine any scenario where his role will decrease.

This is right around the minutes he played in Utah, so he there is no big change there for him. There is always the chance that Stevens really shortens the rotation, and pushes Hayward’s minutes even further.

That would be going against what Stevens has done in the past, however, and with all the wings they have there is no reason for Hayward to not be fresh when he is on the court.

Hayward is one of the only players whose minutes will not suffer if there is a transition period. He is too good to not play through his struggles, and the Celtics will have to live with whatever he produces in the minutes he is on the court.

The good news is that those should be the best minutes we have seen in his career.





Isaiah Thomas: 30-35 minutes

Having Thomas’ minutes reduced a bit is in no way a bad thing. One of the biggest problems last year was how much Thomas had to carry on the Celtics, and the danger of tiring himself out in the process of carrying everything.

With Hayward in the lineup the Celtics will not depend on Thomas as much on the offensive end, and that will allow him to get easier looks and make sure he is more fresh on the court.

When you take into account the hip injury, lessening the strain on Thomas could be a major factor in maintaining the team this year.

Obviously it is not going to be a drastic decrease, and the starting unit could be too good to reduce them in any capacity. That being said, Thomas could benefit from those extra couple minutes of rest, putting him in more comfortable positions to make sure he maintains the absurd offensive level he played at last season every second he is on the court.

Everyone knows that Thomas is the offensive identity of this team, but now that he has more help around him it will not be as impossibly hard for him to maintain it.




bob
MY NOTE:  One of the worst pieces of work I've seen from Mr. Bateman in a while.  I added up the minimum minutes he's assigning to players (e.g.  he says Zizic will play 15-20.  I assumed 15) and the total comes out to 318 player minutes.  There are only 240 player minutes in a regulation game, 265 in an OT game.  The Celtics would have to average a little over a triple OT game for the entire season for the players to get the minimum amount of minutes he projects for each of them.

And he thinks Horford will average 35mpg?!  He hasn't averaged over 33mpg since 2013-2014.



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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by worcester on Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:05 pm

Bateman might be using the metric system.
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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by kdp59 on Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:47 am

plus he has 16 players on the roster....but have gotten a special exception from the Commish for that one!

how about my guesses:
I'll use total minutes for the year to take into account minor injuries and such that happen and smooths out the various ups and downs.

Horford- 2400 min
Morris- 2200
Crowder- 2200
Hayward-2400
Thomas- 2400

Smart- 2000
Brown- 1600
Tatum- 1200
Baynes-1200
Rozier- 1200

That leaves about 1000 minutes between the bottom 5 players on the roster total...or bottom 6 perhaps?

Yabusle
Zizic
Ojeleye
Larkin
Theis
Nader

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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by bobheckler on Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:27 am

kdp59 wrote:plus he has 16 players on the roster....but have gotten a special exception from the Commish for that one!

how about my guesses:
I'll use total minutes for the year to take into account  minor injuries and such that happen and smooths out the various ups and downs.

Horford- 2400 min
Morris- 2200
Crowder- 2200
Hayward-2400
Thomas- 2400

Smart- 2000
Brown- 1600
Tatum- 1200
Baynes-1200
Rozier- 1200

That leaves about 1000 minutes between the bottom 5 players on the roster total...or bottom 6 perhaps?

Yabusle
Zizic
Ojeleye
Larkin
Theis
Nader



kdp,

For some additional perspective, I'm adding the minute totals players had last year.  Obviously, last year's totals do not necessarily transfer to this year.  For example we have some logjams at the 3 with the additions of Hayward and Morris that Crowder didn't have to deal with last year.  Likewise, Hayward doesn't have to carry the team on his shoulders like he had to in Utah.  My additions to your projections will be in bold.  

Horford- 2400 min, 2193
Morris- 2200, 2565
Crowder- 2200, 2335
Hayward-2400, 2516
Thomas- 2400, 2569

Smart- 2000, 2399
Brown- 1600, 1341
Tatum- 1200
Baynes-1200, 1163
Rozier- 1200, 1263

That leaves about 1000 minutes between the bottom 5 players on the roster total...or bottom 6 perhaps?

Yabusle
Zizic
Ojeleye
Larkin
Theis - 592 (Total Euroleague.  19.2 mpg for 30 games)
Nader


I don't see Baynes playing fewer minutes than he did last year considering how very thin we are at center and he came to Boston, specifically, so he could play more minutes than last year in Detroit.  I would shift some of the minutes you allocated to Horford to him, at least a few hundred.  If he doesn't end up playing as many minutes this year as rookie Jaylen Brown played last year then he's a swing-and-a-miss for Danny.  I expect Baynes on the floor replacing Horford.  If Horford plays 35mpg (which is maybe 5mpg too many, IMO) then Baynes will be getting the 13mpg he is sitting.  PLUS, he'll be on the floor with Horford some, when Brad wants to go big and might even get a few minutes with Zizic if Brad wants to play Bully-Ball against softer teams like Miami (Whiteside and Olynyk), Dallas (Noel and Powell), Orlando (Vucevic and BisMACK BiYOMMMMMBOOOOO!!!!) and Houston (Capela and ???).  Wouldn't it be fun seeing Zizic and Sabonis go at each other like a couple of male grizzly bears during mating season when we play Indy?

Also, you have rookie Jayson Tatum playing fewer minutes than rookie Jaylen Brown did.  If that's the case then Tatum needs to either dedicate himself to defense so he can earn minutes and get on the court ,and forget about his offense, or go on a "see-food" diet.  You also have Brown giving up minutes this year even though we are down Bradley and he has clearly earned a bigger role, and you aren't giving many more minutes to Rozier in Bradley's place.


bob


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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by mulcogiseng on Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:12 am

Total minute for the year makes no sense to me. How about doing this as per game minutes so it translates to what we actually see. Some of us are math challenged, even when wearing sandals. When I saw the format I immediately thought of kdp knowing how much he loves that kind of thing. I don't need to know yearly minutes until June. lol I think that the basic outline is good but the specifics, like Bob and kdp have said, just don't add up. The one glaring aspect for me is Theis who is older, more professionally experienced, and the holder of more awards yet getting fewer minutes. Whatever, this isn't even close to preseason yet, so much can change. I just love how there is going to be so much more competition for those minutes this year as compared to last season.
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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by BleedGreen on Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:41 am

A solid article that provides lots of talking points but grossly overestimates minutes for the last 7-8 guys on the team. Thanks for posting it because it it useful to go off of when creating our own (better) versions.

Before I dissect it further. I just want to point out how badly writers these days need editors. Apparently the internet age has made that crucial role in journalism obsolete? This is a decently written article don't get me wrong, and I am far from perfect myself, but some things should get picked up on.

- but thee are the only two traditional bigs on the team

[Is this Shakespeare?]

- He was seen as an NBA ready rebounder even before he went overseas.

[can't go overseas when you are already there, you can STAY overseas]

- but [Yabusele] would have to be quite a disaster to fall out of the rotation entirely.

[Can't fall out of something if you never make it in. Yabu and Semi are likely fighting for one rotation spot and if the younger guy is sent to Maine for the whole year it would not be considered a disaster since he agreed to stay overseas for TWO YEARS when Danny drafted him higher than most expected.]

- Baynes will not be a difference maker for the Celtics, but he will be an important part of a lot of lineups

[So he'll have the all important role of not making a difference?]

- it should only be a matter of time before he is getting up to the 25 minutes per game and Rozier plays with the energy

[Why has he used 'the' in these situations?]

- The Celtics already know who many different things Smart does to help this team

He also loved the transition, "that being said." Use it 2-3 times not 7-8 times.

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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by kdp59 on Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:56 am

thanks Bob,

showing last years minutes give additional perspective. I think Hayward takes most of Bradley's lost minutes myself.

my per game averages will only use the likely 10 man rotioan:

Horford- 30 min per
Morris- 28
Crowder-28
Hayward-30
Thomas- 30

Smart- 24
Brown- 20
Tatum- 16
Baynes- 18
Rozier-16

I think that's 240 mins..and yes Bob I added a couple minutes to Baynes here , since I am only using rotational players.

though I think Zizic will see some select time in his place and get him back down to about that 1200 minutes for the season.
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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by bobheckler on Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:16 pm

kdp59 wrote:thanks Bob,

showing last years minutes give additional perspective. I think Hayward takes most of Bradley's lost minutes myself.

my per game averages will only use the likely 10 man rotioan:

Horford- 30 min per
Morris- 28
Crowder-28
Hayward-30
Thomas- 30

Smart- 24
Brown- 20
Tatum- 16
Baynes- 18
Rozier-16

I think that's 240 mins..and yes Bob I added a couple minutes to Baynes here , since I am only using rotational players.

though I think Zizic will see some select time in his place and get him back down to about that 1200 minutes for the season.


kdp,

Once again, since we are changing the unit of measurement from total minutes to minutes/game (mpg), I will provide last year's mpg for some additional perspective.  My additions, last year's mpg, will be in bold.

Horford- 30 min per, 32.3mpg
Morris- 28, 32.5mpg
Crowder-28, 32.4mpg
Hayward-30, 34.5mpg
Thomas- 30, 33.8mpg

Smart- 24, 30.4mpg
Brown- 20, 17.2mpg
Tatum- 16
Baynes- 18, 15.5mpg
Rozier-16, 17.1mpg


bob


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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by BleedGreen on Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:37 pm

Are there a lot of fan clamoring for Crowder to not start?

The only givens in the starting lineup are Hayward, Horford and Thomas.

Hayward: 34-37 minutes - depending on how heaving Stevens leans on him
Horford: 32-34 - as was said, he hasn't played 33+ since '13 and is 31 yrs old, keep him fresh
Thomas: 32-34 - prob starts slow w the hip, best if healthier and more efficient in fewer mins

Five guys could potential fill the next 3 starter spots.

- Crowder has done nothing to lose this role.
- Morris is likely to be more comfortable in an Amir type role next to Horford than Crowder due to being taller/longer and his past as a PF in Detroit.
- Smart can start next to IT and share the ballhandling duties of course but probably has more value off the bench just dominating lesser guards and running the 2nd unit as HIS crew. He will also get plenty of time with the 1st unit.
- Baynes can take pressure off Horford as far as banging and rebounding early in the game. We all know in a perfect world Al sees himself as a PF despite being a perfect modern age center. -
- Brown can also start as he may be better suited to play SG than Hayward (def has not proven this yet) but is fully invested in Brad's perfect all little things/earn everything approach.

I think the C's start Baynes and Crowder as long as Hayward is comfortable defending SG's. There truly is no reason to alienate or offend the proud and often defiant Crowder any further at this juncture by taking away something he clearly earned. Also, his salary makes any potential in-season trade a little easier than Morris's so showcasing him a bit never hurts. The C's need to establish themselves as a team that can mix it up and rebound and Baynes lets Horford get comfortable in his Swiss army knife role to start the game rather than having to think 'rebound, rebound' right from the tip, which I think led to his being discouraged and other teams starting fast last year. Jaylen and Morris are two guys I wouldn't be surprised to see FINISHING games (due to their two-way play), and one starting if Crowder and/or Baynes are traded, but both are in positions where they should be earning these roles only after extended reg season success, not just preseason. Baynes and Brown might even get into an Amir/Gerald Green type scenario where they start based on if the opponent is big/small and who is playing well at the time.

Crowder: 26-30 minutes - less small ball PF needed w Morris, just stay healthy & happy please
Smart: 26-30 - 30+ if he really improves that shot, but of course nothing less than last year
Morris: 22-36 - I am interested to see his D on LBJ and if his 3 point shooting can improve
Brown: 22-26 - Ability to handle the ball and defend those McCollum & Beal SG's is huge
Baynes: 14-18 - Avg'd 15.5 last 3 seasons and turns 31 in Dec, a career high in mins?

There is your 8 man big minute rotation including 5 guys who can start for only 2 spots. After this you get to "Chaotic Brad Stevens rotations" territory.

Rozier: 10-14 minutes - The playoffs did seem to solidify a role for him and his (likely) ability to defend smaller SG's better than Brown and Hayward and to make up for some of what the team lost in Bradley along with his clutch play, experience in the system and 3rd ball-handler role will guarantee him a spot.
Tatum: 12-16 - He'll help the 2nd unit score right away, can probably be hid on D against either forward on a second unit, will add some rebounding and brought along slowly like Brown was.
Zizic: 6-10 - He'll be needed for for a few mins to spell 31 year old's Horford and Baynes. Use some fouls, gain some experience and help on the boards as a 'true' center.
Ojeleye: 6-10 He is not needed to guard centers in order to immediately be a big factor in my opinion despite what the author said. I think it will help, but his being able to guard the east's big combo forwards like LeBron, Melo, Porter, Aaron Gordon, Simmons, Saric, Jabari Parker and Giannis will be the FAR bigger help.

The rest of the players should only see mop up garbage times mins and spend some of the season in the D-League or even potentially be traded by opening night since the team is once again at 16 men for 15 spots.

Yabu - He's the one who is supposed to be baby Draymond and guard centers one day right? Regardless, I see Semi beating him out and lots of time in Maine for our dancing bear.
Larkin - A 4th ballhandler in the Phil Pressey role really only on the team b/c DA and Stevens like him as a 13th-15th man more than Demetrius Jackson I guess. Things would have to go very wrong with Rozier or Smart would have to be the starting SG for Shane to see legit burn.
Theis and Nader - Battling it out for the last roster spot, they both seem to bring similar things although Nader is pretty redundant in terms of youth at SF with a lot of what the team has and came off as a bit off a ball hog in summer league while Theis has pro experience and gave up on a successful Euro career so I'd give him the edge.

Even the LOW END of all those estimates I gave just exceeds the 240 mins there are in an NBA game. It is going to be pretty tough for Stevens to fir everyone in.



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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by BleedGreen on Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:45 pm

kdp59 wrote:thanks Bob,

showing last years minutes give additional perspective. I think Hayward takes most of Bradley's lost minutes myself.

my per game averages will only use the likely 10 man rotioan:

Horford- 30 min per
Morris- 28
Crowder-28
Hayward-30
Thomas- 30

Smart- 24
Brown- 20
Tatum- 16
Baynes- 18
Rozier-16

I think that's 240 mins..and yes Bob I added a couple minutes to Baynes here , since I am only using rotational players.

though I think Zizic will see some select time in his place and get him back down to about that 1200 minutes for the season.

Pretty close to what I see being most likely. I little light for Hayward. I'd go more with these numbers if the goal is to get to exactly 240:

Horford- 32
Morris- 24
Crowder-28
Hayward-34
Thomas- 30

Smart- 26
Brown- 20
Tatum- 10
Baynes- 16
Rozier-10

This leaves 10 minutes for Ojeleye, Theis and Zizic to split or battle it out for. 12 men dress every night right? So one of these guys will be joining Larkin in street clothes while Yabu gets legit mins in Maine. To start the season at least you may have the vet Theis dressing and Semi also in Maine getting experience. Zizic could use some as well, but likely fills the Zeller role of at least having a 7' big on the bench to come in for an injury or if Al/Baynes foul out he'd be needed. Nader is prob the last one standing when the music stops and 15 chairs are filled.
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BleedGreen

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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by dboss on Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:13 pm

This is a futile exercise.

Hayward is entering his prime so he is going to play 32-34 MPG.  IT will also be in the 32 MPG range.

One of the big changes is at the PF spot where it has been maned by committee averaging around 20 MPG.  Now that the Celtics have added a full time PF in Morris I expect him to log 30 MPG.  The rotation has enough bodies to go deeper but the PF change means that the starting 5 are going to log 28- 34 MPG.

The influx of so many rookies means that they will have a hard time finding minutes.

Both Brown and Rozier should see increases in their MPG especially Brown.  

The 10 man rotation as presented by kdp59 is very weak offensively off the bench as there lacks a single reliable shooter from distance

Brown is the key to making this work because they will need big minutes from him on the defensive end to sure up a very questionable starting defensive unit.  

They will need him to be effective at both the SG and SF positions.

Marcus Smart is likely to see his minutes decline somewhat or Tatum gets skimpy minutes.

Baynes averaged 15.5 MPG last year and I do not see where he gets even that many minutes in the pace and space schemes.

Predicting minutes on a team with 10 new bodies under contract is really impossible but I think you have to consider the starter minutes first and then figure out rotation minutes.

In my not so humble opinion there are too many new faces on this team.  I am pretty certain that they will experience chemistry issues because it will take Brad a long time to figure out the analytics.  The more new players that you have the more difficult it will be. It is going to take time.

When you have 2 first round picks on a team and neither factor into the equation that is problematic.  The only way to improve your game is to play!

In sum I think all 5 starters will average around 30 MPG and I also think that the starting lineup will change.  At some point Brad will have to insert Jaylen Brown into the starting lineup and Jae Crowder will go to the bench.  

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Re: Predicting Boston Celtics Minutes

Post by BleedGreen on Mon Aug 07, 2017 2:15 pm

Trading Crowder and Baynes and possibly a late 1st rd pick for a big man who is starter worthy and can rebound like Baynes while defending the rim better and scoring 10-12 pts a game in 24-28 minutes is the way out of this log-jam. This can't be done until Baynes is trade eligible after Dec 15th.

Crowder will get 24-28 mins and probably not be demoted from his starting spot, but will desire the 30-32 he had been getting, all while Brown and Tatum are chomping at the bit for more and the fans will be showering Hayward with adoration, pleading for more court time for the 3rd overall picks of the last two drafts and making Jae feel like the odd man out. Give a better big man than Baynes all of the 14-16 mins he was getting, + 8-10 of Crowder's, and you've freed up 12-16 minutes to give to Brown and Tatum by mid-season when they'll be feeling more comfortable and ready for larger roles.
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