lottery reform

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lottery reform

Post by Matty on Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:50 pm

The NBA is aggressively pursuing lottery reform that could take effect for the 17-18 season.
Adam Silver is a strong advocate to de-incentivize tanking by implementing lower odds on the NBA's worst teams to gain the top picks in the draft.
The proposed measures would also increase the chances of better teams making a jump up into the draft lottery.
The team with the worst record can drop no lower than No. 4 from No. 1, but the NBA's currently proposed legislation could allow that team to drop from first to fifth in the lottery.
The NBA would also flatten the odds for the top-3 teams. Small market teams could vote against the measures since it will become even more difficult for them to acquire star-level players through the draft.

 [b] I forget if I ever posted this here or not, but several years ago i'd come up with my own hairbrain idea  for the draft and had posted it mebbe here, mebbe on another basketball related forum I  forget, anyhow the idea went like this: The draft would be divided into three parts, based on the same win loss record and non playoff system currently employed.

Part 1- All Teams would be represented by a single lottery ball. The first part of the draft would involve the teams with the 5 worst records in the league,  these 5 teams would be the sole teams in the lottery to determine the first three picks of the draft. So all five teams would have a 20% shot at the first pick in the draft overall and only those first five teams.  After the first pick the remaining four teams would then have a 25% shot at the #2 selection, the third selection would have 3 teams each with a 33% chance.

 Part 2- Once the third pick has been determined the lottery would then be opened to add the next two teams with the worst records (#'s6 and 7), these for teams would then draw for the 4th pick. Following this pick the team with the next worst record (8th worst) would be added to lottery keeping the number of teams at four teams in the lottery vying for the next pick in the draft.  This process would be repeated until each of the 14 non playoff teams have been added to the lottery. Once the last non playoff team had entered the lottery there would still be four teams vying for the next pick in the draft and by this time they would be seeing who would win the 11th pick. Once the 11th pick has been selected and the lotto was back down to three teams the 12th selection would be made from these three remaining non playoff teams. This would end part 2 of the draft.  

Part 3- The last part of the draft would begin with the addition of the first team into the lottery which had made the playoffs, of course that team being the playoff team with the worst record. This team would join the two remaining teams left over from the non playoff teams and would make up the three teams going after the 13th selection in the draft. From here on out after a team is selected to take a place in the draft order a new team will replace it, so three teams will be involved with each new draft selection. This would hold true through the 27th position being decided. By that time, with the 27th position being decided the team with the best record will have entered the lottery, giving them a shot at picks number 28. After position 28 has been decided the last two teams would them be used to choose the 29th pick. The remaining team would be stuck with the 30th pick in the draft.

 I like this idea for a few reasons, first it does not automatically reward teams for tanking as much as the current system. Also thinking back to when Boston traded for Isaiah, many felt that by improving with him on the team, we lost out on the chances (admittedly low chances) for going for a early draft pick. I think after the deal we ended up with the last seed in the playoffs? so we came into the playoffs with say the 15th worst record in the league. Say without Thomas we would have had maybe the 12 or so worst record. So the best pick the 12th pick could possibly get is the 9th pick. The best the 15th worst team could do is selecting at number 13. Not a massive talent drop.  

This method also does not guarantee that just because a team has the worst record or one of the worst records that it will be assured a particular position. The nets pick for example in this summers draft could have fell anywhere between 1 and 4. Doing the draft with "The Matty Method" the nets pick was up at a 20% shot at number 1, then a 25% shot at 2 if still in the lotto, a 33% at 3 if not chosen to pick with either at 1 or 2, and did not have to worry about any team competing for those same selections from the 6th or better records. However, there are no assurences that they absolutely will pick before the 6th team. In fact, the team with the worst record could end up picking with the 30th selection, improbable, but not impossible. The flip side is after the first 5 bad teams are added to the lottery, each team going down the line from bad to good records has a chance to improve their order in the draft, the 6th worst could end up with the 4th pick, the 15th worst team could pick 13th , the best team in the league could pick 28th.

anyhow, just my thoughts, the league is free to adopt "The Matty Method" in exchange for the league pass and a couple bottles of hooch.[b]

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