From duds to studs. Sophomores, featuring Jaylen Brown

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From duds to studs. Sophomores, featuring Jaylen Brown

Post by NYCelt on Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:25 pm

Bleacher report article.

I didn't paste in anything on sophomore players other than Brown; you can always use the link.

They're not really so much saying that Brown was a dud last year, he wasn't.  It's just pointing out his struggles and factors that held him back that he's still developing. Ultimately, the story points out why Brown has so much promise and points out what he needs to do to get the big minutes we expect.  It is, at least, on target in it's assessment of Brown. I think it fairly points out reasons why Brown holds promise for The Celtics.

Nothing earth-shaking or new, just a slightly different slant on eight players that could emerge from last years underperforming rookie crop.

It could have been titled "Slow starts happen."
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2732056-from-duds-to-studs-nba-sophomores-ready-to-break-out

From Duds to Studs: NBA Sophomores Ready to Break Out
ADAM FROMAL
SEPTEMBER 11, 2017

NBA rookies typically struggle as they adjust to play at the sport's highest level. The game is that much faster, requires significantly more discipline and can punish players for even the tiniest of mistakes. It doesn't help that many are thrown into the proverbial fire so they can learn on the job.

But the 2016-17 rookie class was particularly putrid.

A few players arrived as legitimate studs. Malcolm Brogdon won Rookie of the Year, while Joel Embiid and Dario Saric also drew first-place votes. Buddy Hield didn't have that honor, but he still impressed after the New Orleans Pelicans traded him to the Sacramento Kings in February. Each member of that young quartet will be ineligible here, since they inarguably weren't duds during their initial campaigns.

Still, the rest of the first-year crop struggled—some more than others, of course. And as NBA Math's total points added (TPA) metric helps show, this was the lowest the rookies had sunk in quite some time:

2016-17: Rookies accumulated minus-2,995.46 TPA and averaged minus-33.66 TPA per player.
2015-16: Rookies accumulated minus-1,738.12 TPA and averaged minus-23.81 TPA per player.
2014-15: Rookies accumulated minus-2,414.58 TPA and averaged minus-29.45 TPA per player.
2013-14: Rookies accumulated minus-2,198.8 TPA and averaged minus-28.19 TPA per player.
2012-13: Rookies accumulated minus-2,438.71 TPA and averaged minus-31.27 TPA per player.

To find a rookie class with a lower total score, you have to travel back to 1990-91, when Derrick Coleman won Rookie of the Year while he, Gary Payton, Kendall Gill, Keith Askins, Lionel Simmons and Ian Lockhart were the only young men to finish with positive TPAs. The journey back to find a set of first-year players with a lower average TPA is shorter, but it still takes you all the way to 2002-03.

Thanks to a dearth of top-end players and plenty of overmatched contributors logging major minutes for rebuilding squads, last year's class was historically bad.

But reasons for optimism still exist. Whether because of changing roles or skill sets that will allow for second-season explosions, each of these eight rising sophomores should make the transition to the "stud" category in 2017-18.


Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics

1 OF 8

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Jaylen Brown's value to the Boston Celtics comes from his ability to leverage his immense physicality into actual production. The skill elements of his game aren't quite there yet, but he's so relentlessly gritty and overpowering that he still manages to overcome more experienced contributors.

Not many statistical projections loved this California product as he prepared to enter the NBA, but his rookie season should've shown why the eye test is so vital. Not many players have this much speed and strength wrapped in the same package, and fewer still pair that with the mentality necessary to thrive on the preventing end.

That's why Brown was guarding LeBron James as a rookie in the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals. It's why, a few months later, he was tasked with slowing Philadelphia 76ers rookie Markelle Fultz during summer-league action. Suffice it to say, covering those two players requires vastly differing skills, and this 20-year-old has them.

But his offense has held him back thus far, and that's what needs to change for a true breakout.

According to NBA Math's Play-Type Profile, the 6'7", 225-pound small forward added value as a cutter and a post-up shooter during his rookie season. Everywhere else, he was a glaring negative, likely because his jumper was broken and he frequently dribbled his way into traffic. This offseason, however, has shown signs that could change.

The shooting percentages weren't there in summer league (40 percent from the field and 30 percent from downtown in Las Vegas and Utah combined), but the aggression was. Looking at percentages in exhibition play is often an erroneous task, and it's far more important that Brown seemed comfortable initiating sets and creating his own looks.

If and when this former Golden Bear shows signs of two-way production, head coach Brad Stevens will have no choice but to hand him more minutes.


Last edited by NYCelt on Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:29 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: From duds to studs. Sophomores, featuring Jaylen Brown

Post by fierce on Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:28 pm

Jaylen Brown just needs to be more consistent.
He's a star in the making.
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Re: From duds to studs. Sophomores, featuring Jaylen Brown

Post by NYCelt on Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:38 pm

fierce wrote:Jaylen Brown just needs to be more consistent.
He's a star in the making.

Yes, I also think consistency is a major factor in Brown's ability to grow and succeed.

From the day we drafted Brown, I compared him overall to Marcus Smart.  They have several overlapping strengths and weaknesses.  I believe they'll have a very similar career path with The Celtics.  They could combine to be the defensive key this year.
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Re: From duds to studs. Sophomores, featuring Jaylen Brown

Post by bobheckler on Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:26 am

Jaylen first 3 months were rough, as you should expect from any rookie.  One of the reason why his numbers looked so bad the first 3 months is because his minutes were so inconsistent, because his rookie play was so inconsistent. He sat a bunch of games in the first half of the season, not so many in the second half. Nevertheless, you can see he had his ups and downs. His rebounding needs to improve, his frito%, which I didn't list, needs to go up. I expect his assist-to-TO ratio to improve just because the game should be a little slower for him this year, so he won't make many of the same rookie mistakes. But his fgas went up /min from his first 3 months and his overall fg% became not only acceptable but quite good.


Per Game........min......pts......fga.....fg%.....3ptfga.....3ptfg%.....reb.....ast.....TO.....stls
Nov------------13.2-----4.6----4.4----37.9----1.6--------33.3-------2.3----.7-----.7-----.5
Dec------------12.9-----4.7----.4.1----47.7----.8---------30.8-------1.5----.4-----.4-----.2
Jan------------16.4-----6.2----.5.5----39.4----1.5--------26.3-------3.8----.8-----1.0----.5
Feb------------25.6----10.4----7.9----49.2----2.4--------45.5-------3.9----.9-----1.1----.9
Mar------------20.1----7.8-----6.3----48.5----2.5--------32.5-------3.8----1.2----1.1----.4
Apr------------20.0-----8.0----6.7----45.0----2.7--------37.5-------2.2----1.2----1.3----.5



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Re: From duds to studs. Sophomores, featuring Jaylen Brown

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