Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger

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Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger Empty Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger

Post by bobheckler Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:44 am

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20754510/preseason-bpi-reveal-shows-just-how-dominant-golden-state-warriors-be



Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger



Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger I?img=%2Fphoto%2F2017%2F0607%2Fr217429_1296x729_16%2D9
BPI sees a Warriors team still very much at the peak of its powers. Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports



6:01 AM PT



Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics



The 29 NBA teams that are not the Golden State Warriors should brace themselves: Their odds of knocking off Golden State are even longer this season. The Warriors have a 57.9 percent chance to repeat as NBA champs, according to preseason numbers from ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). That makes them even heavier favorites than they were this time last year, when they were still the likeliest team to win it all (52.4 percent) by an overwhelming margin.

BPI is a forward-looking model that predicts the strength of each team on offense, defense and altogether. In making its game predictions, the model takes into account factors such as the strength of the two teams, the game's location and rest differential between the two squads. BPI simulates the season 10,000 times to create its projections for both the season and the playoffs.

During the season, the model will adjust daily to include information gathered from every game that is played. But in the preseason, with no games played so far, the model is based on past performance combined with Vegas win totals.

And right now, that tells us ...


The Warriors are really, really good

Breaking news, right? But seriously, it is notable that they are even heavier favorites than they were a year ago. The reason for that is simple: The model, quite frankly, thinks the Warriors are better than it did this time last year. Not better than how they ended up -- that's a different question altogether -- but how good they were expected to be.

BPI believes the Warriors, who are returning all the key players from last season's championship run, are 9.4 points better than the average team. That breaks down to a +5.6 rating on offense and a +3.7 on offense (that adds up to 9.3, but as a result of rounding their total BPI rating is +9.4).

Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger I?img=%2Fphoto%2F2017%2F0919%2FBPIChart
ESPN Analytics


We mentioned earlier that the season is simulated 10,000 times to create BPI's projections. Guess how many times the Warriors made the playoffs in those simulations? Yep, all 10,000. In fact, they never finished worse than the 5-seed in any simulation.

Some other Warriors projections while we're on the subject:

Expected regular-season win total: 63.1.
Chance to be the No. 1 seed in the West: 91.3 percent.
Chance to reach the Finals: 67.2 percent.

Yeah, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are a tough out.

Their most challenging opponent will come from within the Western Conference: the Houston Rockets, at a total BPI rating of +5.1. That's a pretty wide gap between BPI's No. 1- and No. 2-ranked teams.

Though BPI doesn't specifically make an adjustment for the addition of Chris Paul, Vegas certainly recognizes the impact the star point guard can bring to Houston and adjusts its win totals accordingly, which in turn is reflected in BPI.

But the Rockets are not the second-most likely team to win the title next season.


If not the Warriors or Rockets, then who?

The Boston Celtics, that's who.

That means Kyrie Irving jumped from the reigning Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers to the team favored to hold that title next. The revamped Celtics -- with Irving and Gordon Hayward now on their roster -- have a 12.1 percent chance to win the whole thing, best in the East. When the Warriors are taking up such a high likelihood of winning it all, 12.1 percent isn't that bad.

Expected Wins, 2017-18 NBA Season
TEAM............................................EXPECTED WINS........EXPECTED LOSSES
Golden State Warriors-----------------63.1--------------------18.9
Boston Celtics--------------------------54.1--------------------27.9
Houston Rockets-----------------------53.7--------------------28.3
San Antonio Spurs---------------------52.8--------------------29.2
Cleveland Cavaliers--------------------51.8--------------------30.2
Oklahoma City Thunder---------------50.2--------------------31.8
Minnesota Timberwolves--------------47.6--------------------34.4
Toronto Raptors-----------------------47.5---------------------34.5
Milwaukee Bucks----------------------46.8---------------------35.2
Washington Wizards------------------46.4---------------------35.6
Denver Nuggets-----------------------45.5---------------------36.5
Miami Heat----------------------------42.9---------------------39.1
LA Clippers----------------------------42.7---------------------39.3
Charlotte Hornets---------------------42.3---------------------39.7
Philadelphia 76ers--------------------42.0---------------------40.0
Portland Trail Blazers-----------------41.9---------------------40.1
Utah Jazz------------------------------40.7---------------------41.3
New Orleans Pelicans-----------------38.8---------------------43.2
Detroit Pistons------------------------38.6---------------------43.4
Memphis Grizzlies---------------------37.5---------------------44.5
Dallas Mavericks----------------------35.3---------------------46.7
Orlando Magic-------------------------33.7--------------------48.3
Los Angeles Lakers-------------------33.6---------------------48.4
Indiana Pacers------------------------31.9---------------------50.1
New York Knicks----------------------31.0---------------------51.0
Phoenix Suns-------------------------29.6---------------------52.4
Sacramento Kings--------------------29.4---------------------52.6
Brooklyn Nets-------------------------29.0---------------------53.0
Atlanta Hawks------------------------26.8---------------------55.2
Chicago Bulls-------------------------23.0---------------------59.0

Boston's BPI rating is +4.9, fourth best in the NBA behind the Warriors, Rocket and Spurs. Despite that, the C's are the second-most likely to win the Finals because they are in the East.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are sixth in BPI (+3.eight) and have the fifth-best chance to win it all, at 6.4 percent. The Celtics and Cavs have a 55.8 percent and 27.9 percent chance, respectively, to be the No. 1 seed in the East.

As for Cavs-Warriors IV? BPI believes there's a 17.5 percent chance of it happening.


But back to the Irving-Isaiah Thomas deal. How valuable is the Nets' 2018 first-round pick the Celtics gave up?

According to BPI, that pick has an 11 percent chance of being the No. 1 overall pick, a 33 percent chance of being in the top three and a 59 percent chance of being in the top five.

If those are lower than you were expecting, that's because BPI actually doesn't think Brooklyn is the worst team in the NBA. That honor belongs to the Chicago Bulls (-7.2), who dealt Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves this offseason. The Atlanta Hawks, who lost Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. and traded Dwight Howard, are the second-worst team in the league at -5.8.

It's no surprise, then, that the Bulls and Hawks also have the best shot at the No. 1 overall pick next summer, with a 20.9 percent and 14.8 percent chance, respectively.

While Boston might keep an eye on the pick it traded to Cleveland, much more important to the Celtics is the Lakers' pick, which becomes theirs if it falls between 2-5 as a result of the trade the 76ers made with the Celtics for the first overall pick in the 2017 draft. That pick has an 18.3 percent chance of falling in the zone that would result in the Sixers shipping it to Boston. The Celtics will receive a different pick in 2019 if the Lakers' pick falls outside that zone.


Who are the big movers?

We already discussed the Bulls and Hawks, the two teams expected to see the largest drop in wins this season. They are followed by the Jazz (expected to win 10.3 fewer games in 2017-18) and Pacers, who each lost a star -- Hayward and Paul George, respectively -- this offseason.

The Timberwolves, who were on the other end of that Butler trade, are projected to win 47.6 games, a 16.6-win increase from their total a season ago. The 76ers are behind them, projected to win 42 games after winning 28 a season ago.




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Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger Empty Re: Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger

Post by worcester Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:16 pm

I am a big Celtics homer and fan, but to rank us ahead of the Cavs is pretty presumptuous. I'm all for it, but that's a longer shot than the BPI thinks.
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Post by NYCelt Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:55 pm

With W on this one.  Cavs, with or without Thomas, should be at least 3.  With Thomas probably 2.  Better?  Many will make the argument in favor.  No way they're behind OKC.
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Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger Empty Re: Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger

Post by k_j_88 Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:20 am

I think the Cavs are ranked where they should be.

The Cavs are going to be a different team than they have been. They'll struggle more and this will require James to play even harder to make up the difference.


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Post by tjmakz Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:37 am

k_j_88 wrote:I think the Cavs are ranked where they should be.

The Cavs are going to be a different team than they have been. They'll struggle more and this will require James to play even harder to make up the difference.


KJ

I would expect Jae Crowder to take a lot of pressure off of Lebron on the defensive side of the court.
Crowder can now guard the other teams best wing player.
Shumpert, Smith, Korver never provided tough and quality defense.
Defense is what has hurt them in recent years.
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Post by kdp59 Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:13 am

the king has one eye on Hollywood this year TJ...you KNOW that!!

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Post by k_j_88 Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:37 pm

tjmakz wrote:
k_j_88 wrote:I think the Cavs are ranked where they should be.

The Cavs are going to be a different team than they have been. They'll struggle more and this will require James to play even harder to make up the difference.


KJ

I would expect Jae Crowder to take a lot of pressure off of Lebron on the defensive side of the court.
Crowder can now guard the other teams best wing player.
Shumpert, Smith, Korver never provided tough and quality defense.
Defense is what has hurt them in recent years.

Defensively-speaking, yes, Crowder will take a heavy burden off LeBron on the defensive end.

However offensively, you can't say that the Cavs won't miss Kyrie's abilities. He's virtually unstoppable. As it stands now, LeBron is the only huge offensive threat on the Cavs (we don't know with any certainty how Isaiah will affect them or how much he'll actually play). Schematically, this changes *everything* in terms of how you can defend them. Yes, they sitll have shooters to look out for but I think the task is not quite as tall...


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Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger Empty Re: Preseason BPI loves Warriors, ID's Celtics as top Finals challenger

Post by tjmakz Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:04 pm

k_j_88 wrote:
tjmakz wrote:
k_j_88 wrote:I think the Cavs are ranked where they should be.

The Cavs are going to be a different team than they have been. They'll struggle more and this will require James to play even harder to make up the difference.


KJ

I would expect Jae Crowder to take a lot of pressure off of Lebron on the defensive side of the court.
Crowder can now guard the other teams best wing player.
Shumpert, Smith, Korver never provided tough and quality defense.
Defense is what has hurt them in recent years.

Defensively-speaking, yes, Crowder will take a heavy burden off LeBron on the defensive end.

However offensively, you can't say that the Cavs won't miss Kyrie's abilities. He's virtually unstoppable. As it stands now, LeBron is the only huge offensive threat on the Cavs (we don't know with any certainty how Isaiah will affect them or how much he'll actually play). Schematically, this changes *everything* in terms of how you can defend them. Yes, they sitll have shooters to look out for but I think the task is not quite as tall...


KJ

KJ,

We have to wait to see how healthy IT is when he comes back.
He was just as good or better than Irving last year.
If IT is 2/3rd's of what he was, plus Crowder, plus Rose, Cleveland is as good or better than last years team.
Rose will score, but he won't play defense well which is the same as IT and Irving.
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Post by k_j_88 Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:09 pm

tjmakz wrote:
I would expect Jae Crowder to take a lot of pressure off of Lebron on the defensive side of the court.
Crowder can now guard the other teams best wing player.
Shumpert, Smith, Korver never provided tough and quality defense.
Defense is what has hurt them in recent years.

Defensively-speaking, yes, Crowder will take a heavy burden off LeBron on the defensive end.

However offensively, you can't say that the Cavs won't miss Kyrie's abilities. He's virtually unstoppable. As it stands now, LeBron is the only huge offensive threat on the Cavs (we don't know with any certainty how Isaiah will affect them or how much he'll actually play). Schematically, this changes *everything* in terms of how you can defend them. Yes, they sitll have shooters to look out for but I think the task is not quite as tall...


KJ[/quote]

KJ,

We have to wait to see how healthy IT is when he comes back.
He was just as good or better than Irving last year.
If IT is 2/3rd's of what he was, plus Crowder, plus Rose, Cleveland is as good or better than last years team.
Rose will score, but he won't play defense well which is the same as IT and Irving.[/quote]

TJ,

I'd still say that Irving is noticeably the superior player.

IT had a great season, but it was undeniable during the ECF against the Cavs that he was exposed. And the Cavs weren't even a great defensive team. On defense, they will be tougher, but I'm not sold on them being any "better."

Regardless, James will have to play the best basketball of his career.


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Post by dboss Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:47 pm

k_j_88 wrote:
tjmakz wrote:
I would expect Jae Crowder to take a lot of pressure off of Lebron on the defensive side of the court.
Crowder can now guard the other teams best wing player.
Shumpert, Smith, Korver never provided tough and quality defense.
Defense is what has hurt them in recent years.

Defensively-speaking, yes, Crowder will take a heavy burden off LeBron on the defensive end.

However offensively, you can't say that the Cavs won't miss Kyrie's abilities. He's virtually unstoppable. As it stands now, LeBron is the only huge offensive threat on the Cavs (we don't know with any certainty how Isaiah will affect them or how much he'll actually play). Schematically, this changes *everything* in terms of how you can defend them. Yes, they sitll have shooters to look out for but I think the task is not quite as tall...


KJ

KJ,

We have to wait to see how healthy IT is when he comes back.
He was just as good or better than Irving last year.
If IT is 2/3rd's of what he was, plus Crowder, plus Rose, Cleveland is as good or better than last years team.
Rose will score, but he won't play defense well which is the same as IT and Irving.[/quote]

TJ,

I'd still say that Irving is noticeably the superior player.

IT had a great season, but it was undeniable during the ECF against the Cavs that he was exposed. And the Cavs weren't even a great defensive team. On defense, they will be tougher, but I'm not sold on them being any "better."

Regardless, James will have to play the best basketball of his career.


KJ[/quote]

KJ AND TJ

I was really surprised to see Boston ranked this high.

Eleven new faces.  I think it likely they struggle to find themselves through the first 30 games.  Brad will be experimenting with all kinds of pairing

Key metrics are close to zero because this group has never played together.

While they are fumbling around in the dark they are probably a .500 team. The Cavs at the very least added more veteran depth.  Even if IT is 100% healthy he will not be 29 point per game scorer because the offense will run through James.   So the Cavs will be going through adjustments too but not as dramatic

The Cavs just look more impressive on paper than Boston at least in the short term.

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