Are Expectations Too High For Jayson Tatum?

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2017/09/29/expectations-high-jayson-tatum/



Are Expectations Too High For Jayson Tatum?



by Liam O'Brien20 hours agoFollow @lmob6




Expectations for rookie small forward Jayson Tatum are considerably tall entering the season.

Some Boston Celtics fans entered NBA Summer League play harboring some dismay at general manager Danny Ainge’s decision to pass on inevitable first-overall pick Markelle Fultz and instead trade down two slots to select Duke small forward Jayson Tatum.

However, following Tatum’s performances in the July circuit, those second-guessers had quickly been convinced to remain quiet.


Named to the All-Summer League Second Team, Tatum impressed mightily, posting 17.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per contest while looking like a men amongst boys. Tatum dominated his outmatched competition with smooth drives to the basket and off-footed turnaround jumpers that brought Twitter-heads to begin to compare him to Dirk Nowitzki.




With preseason right around the corner, Tatum has been all the buzz at Celtics training camp. The veterans have been singing his praises, as Al Horford told MassLive that Tatum is “as ready as I’ve seen any rookie” while Kyrie Irving has provided a surplus of compliments towards him as of late.


Tatum’s situation contrasts from that of last year’s third overall selection, Jaylen Brown. Celtics fans came to terms with the notion that Brown would be a work in progress, someone who would have to earn their minutes and would not see the fruit of their labor until later down the line.

With Tatum, many are expecting him to produce immediately out of the gate, especially with head coach Brad Stevens mentioning that the team needs strong contributions from him to capture their goal of a conference championship.

The expected output from Tatum in Year 1 is comparable to what Duke fans expected out of him entering his freshman season with the team. Considered a top-two recruit by many, Tatum had the pressure to perform from the outset with the Blue Devils.

Celtics fans can find solace in the fact that Tatum showed well in his first month with Duke. After missing the first few weeks of the season with a minor injury, Tatum was a force to be reckoned with in December.

In just his second game as a Coach K understudy, Tatum was dynamite against 21st-ranked Florida. He made seven of his 11 field goal attempts while knocking down all eight of his free throws for 22 points. To accompany that, he grabbed eight defensive rebounds and netted two steals. The following game, Tatum put up 13 points and five rebounds in just 24 minutes in a blowout of UNLV on the road before recording 14 and nine in 29 minutes against Tennessee State.




Tatum delivered under immense expectations in his first few weeks at Duke. However, the Celtics will not be opening up their season against the likes of Maine, UNLV, and Tennessee State. The competition level will be higher than Tatum has ever witnessed from the jump, and it is reasonable to expect him to take some time to adjust.

Something that bodes well for Tatum is that he is playing alongside a group of veterans who have been through similar situations. Irving was the No. 1 overall selection by the Cleveland Cavaliers and has already established himself as a mentor figure to Tatum and the rest of the young guns in the Celtics locker room.

Marcus Smart was selected sixth overall in 2014, Brown was a top pick in 2016, and the duo of Horford and Gordon Hayward were also top-ten draft choices.


Tatum has allies in the locker room who have experienced the pressures of being a premier rookie, and he will be able to look upon them for guidance if the grind of the NBA begins to wear on him.



bob
MY NOTE:  I think this author is blessed with an over-abundance of erroneous assumptions, supported by evidence not well-translatable to the NBA.  

"Tatum’s situation contrasts from that of last year’s third overall selection, Jaylen Brown. Celtics fans came to terms with the notion that Brown would be a work in progress, someone who would have to earn their minutes and would not see the fruit of their labor until later down the line.  With Tatum, many are expecting him to produce immediately out of the gate".  Who is he referring to?  Certainly not anybody on this board, we've all taken a "he'll be good eventually" timeline.  What makes him think we won't have to "come to terms with the notion" that Tatum is a work in progress?  Why would anybody not assume that a one-and-doner #3 pick like Tatum would be just as raw in some aspect of the game as one-and-doner #3 pick Brown?  Brown was more NBA-defense ready and Tatum will probably be more NBA-offense ready.  Ok, but you have to play both sides of the ball or you will turn into a Gerald Green.  I'm not saying that's who Tatum will be, I'm saying that expecting much more than that "out of the gate" is quite optimistic.  Tatum was "dynamite" against #21 Florida?  Either Floridian NBA team would crush NCAA Florida and Orlando might be the #21 worst team in a 30 team league.  Summer league?  Oooh, Ahhh, Oooh.  BFD.  Bubble players competing to see if they can climb onto the next bubble. Brown blew a lot of defensive assignments in his first month or two, got sat down by Brad, but came on in the 2nd half of the season. Maybe that is what will happen to Jayson Tatum.

Last year, at Duke, Tatum averaged 16.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 33.3mpg.  If he averages 18mpg this year that comes out to 9.1ppg, 3.9rpg and .64 assists.  Considering his learning curve and the significantly tougher competition I would be very happy if he averages 10ppg, 4rpg and 1apg.  Awe-inspiring numbers?   No.  Going to help us get to the next level?  Probably not this year, but over the next 2-3 years?  Yeah, maybe.  I mean, come on, there is talk of him playing 4, he almost certainly will get caught defending some 4s on switches.  How well do you think a 206# 19-year old toothpick will do against a 250# man who has been beating up people inside for a living for half a dozen years?  Let's be realistic.


.

I agree, Bob. I think his minutes will come by how he progresses defensively, not offensively.

I think expectations are where they should be.

Danny said he was the best player in the draft although that is debatable.

The biggest challenge for him will be the physicality of the pro game.  It will take him a few years to get really stronger.  I expect him to utilize his advanced skills to have an immediate impact on offense.  Less enthusiastic about the defensive side of the ball.

Dboss

Tatum is the #3 pick overall and the Celts traded the #1 pick for the #3 pick.
So it's only natural that expectations should be high.
Majority of Celtic fans, including myself, thought it was a lock that Ainge will draft Markelle Fultz.

Being a high pick, expectations will be what they will be. But I think it's ridiculous for people to expect incredible play from him fresh out of college.

He'll have his growing pains (as Jaylen has) and he'll show us glimpses of something more spectacular. He just needs time to settle and find his role within this team. But I think he will get plenty of play time to grow in his rookie season. Offensively, he'll find his rhythm. Defensively, he'll has some struggles as he did vs Charlotte (falling for the pump fake), but his length and athleticism will help him to an extent.


KJ

Every now and then an NBA-ready player shows up from school who takes off running and never looks back.  Many coaches and scouts have thought Tatum could be that player.  Hopefully so.  A lot has to do with the opportunity to earn minutes from a coach who's open minded and confident enough to defy convention and play the kid if he sees the skills are there.  Most of Tatum's ability to meet high expectations is in his own hands, but Stevens has to be independent enough in his thoughts to let the rookie run if it appears the promise can meet the hope.

This will be among multiple good Celtic story lines for the upcoming season.