Defensive ratings- complex to define.

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Post by swish Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:59 pm

With the current Celtics coach displaying a penchant for strong defensive play - I thought that some of you posters might enjoy reading about the complexities of defining defensive play. It's a rather lengthy article.

https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/aebkbz/why-an-all-in-one-defensive-stat-is-still-the-nbas-holy-grail


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Post by Phil Pressey Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:03 am

Thanks for the article. I kind of agree with the writer. Until they start adding in everything possible to evaluate defensive prowess for each moment, the eye test will still rule the day.

The math is over my head. I'd rather hear more of your opinions. He says DRPM is the best there is even if still flawed. It is this page on ESPN.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM

Celtics
6) Aaron Baynes
8 ) Al Horford
50) Jaylen Brown
65) Jayson Tatum
(Olynyk is at #56)
81) Guerschon Yabusele
92) Marcus Smart
129) Kyrie Irving
138) Daniel Theis
150) Marcus Morris
159) Terry Rozier
229) Shane Larkin

I guess I shouldn't have included Yabusele, but Ojeleye who has gotten many more minutes is at #271.

I think Larkin has been very good at defense. I agree the stat should be added of how often the defender forces the person to pass the ball. Maybe someday the statisticians will get so good at it, that they will finally come up with something close to accuracy.

I think they should just list by position. It doesn't seem fair to judge centers versus guards. One is a rim protector, so if they are good at defense, they should be able to out-stat little guys.

My eye test says Marcus Smart plays Hall of Fame defense.
Unfortunately the test is flunking him on offense.

I think Isaiah was overrated last year. While he was certainly Hall of Fame level for offense, the eye test clearly showed that everyone had to compensate for his height. Isaiah was decent for actual defense, yet that only made his short stature bearable.

I agree with you that players with flaws or physical disadvantages on one end of the court can still get it done for title winners. You just need a stacked roster and other teammates who can watch the little buddy's back. Crowder was not an expert on offense. He did shoot well. So one way for a player like that to keep up his value is to switch off and save Isaiah. Or Marcus Smart is the best example. He is so bad at shooting that the only way he can make a positive impact is to go nuts on defense, his specialty.

Isaiah was fun, but Irving is proof that height cannot be taught. Jaylen Brown on paper is now said to be a better defensive shooting guard than Avery Bradley, but he's got the extra height and agility and the eye test confirms it. Tatum has long arms and looks deceptively strong for 19. The future could be now? I know, it's only 16 games in. But I am drinking the green kool-aid anyway.

I wish plus minus was considered more accurate. If Olynyk is so mediocre, why did we always do better than usual with him on the court? Isn't the main point to score more than the other guy? So in that respect it's tough to say Smart isn't the best player and most indispensable even when shooting 0-10 with turnovers.

Smart might be defensive player of the year?

Thankfully he plays good pg, hit free throws and grab rebounds.

He was on fire in this college game:

Marcus Smart Career High - 39 Pts, 5 Stls, 4 Assts, 2 Blks


This was his big game against Westbrook:

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Post by Shamrock1000 Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:42 am

Thanks Swish. I concur with the general message. Unlike baseball, where players individual perfomances can be isolated from others and thus evaluated, basketball is a team game and every players performance/decision will depend on what is happening at that moment on the court. Each situation is complex and, to a certain extent, unique - its thus difficult to determine which variables are dependent on which. For example, they talk about quantifying how often a defender causes a driving player to pass rather than drive - obviously if the guy passes it may have nothing to do with the defender. Someone else might be open for a 3, the player might be a bad free throw shooter, and not want to go to the line. So many possibilities. But I am still a fan of analytics - the fact that they are more challenging in basketball makes the game more unprecictable and fun. Will be interesting to see analytics make their way into the nfl and nhl.

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