The Duality of the Nets and Lakers Picks

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 The Duality of the Nets and Lakers Picks Empty The Duality of the Nets and Lakers Picks

Post by bobheckler Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:23 am

https://hashtagbasketball.com/boston-celtics/content/the-duality-nets-lakers-picks



The Duality of the Nets and Lakers Picks



Written by Jeremy Stevens (@Taco_Haus) on 13 December 2017



Last August, the Celtics gave up their unprotected Brooklyn pick in a trade that gave Celtics fans a new player to root for in Kyrie Irving as well as a new team to root for in the Brooklyn Nets. Earlier in the summer, Boston acquired a 2018 Lakers pick that will only convey next season if it falls between the second and fifth overall spots. At the time of writing this, both the Nets and Lakers own a 10-15 record.


The end result of each trade is great for Boston no matter the outcome of those picks. Jayson Tatum is easily the most polished rookie in his class and Kyrie Irving has become the league’s most exciting human highlight reel while leading the team to a 23-6 record.


It’s fun to speculate on where each pick might land and who the Celtics might pick, but it’s high time we start looking at them a little more objectively. I’m not going to be the guy that says “It’s too early to look at regular season records”, but I am going to be the guy who asks “Why are we acting like the Nets and Lakers have different records?” It’s a tough pill to swallow, but the tank-a-thon has not favored the Celtics this year (I hope you’re mentally prepared to obsess over the Memphis pick).


To Ainge’s credit, the Nets had a legitimate chance at being a decent team this season. 10-15 without Jeremy Lin at all and D’Angelo Russell for the past month is honestly impressive and would indicate that they would be a .500 team with their two best guards. The East currently has three teams sitting at .500 records (Knicks, Heat, Sixers) who are all tied for the eighth seed. If Ainge had a sense last summer that the Nets would compete for playoff seeding - a sentiment not shared by many - he may have been right. But that’s where the double standard we’ve built up kicks in. The landscape of this year’s tank-a-thon will benefit the Lakers in the same way that it benefits the Nets. In fact, it could benefit them even more.


In the East, the only two teams that are certainly worse than the Nets are the Bulls and Hawks. The Magic are below them in the standings and could very well finish there, but I think the Hornets (10-16) are too good to finish the season with the third-worst conference record.


The bottom of the west, however, looks dreadful. There are four teams behind that Lakers: the Suns, Kings, Grizzlies, and Mavericks. There’s no way around it - those teams are bad.


The interesting thing is that if you sort all these teams by point differential, the two conferences are almost perfectly interlocked.




[th]Team[/th][th]Conference[/th][th]Point Differential[/th]
NetsEast-2.5
LakersWest-2.7
MavericksWest-3.4
MagicEast-3.8
GrizzliesWest-4.2
HawksEast-5.3
SunsWest-7.9
BullsEast-8.7
KingsWest-9.4
Even though the win-loss records would lead us to think the Western teams are tanking much harder, their point differential might suggest that each conference’s tankers are comparably bad. In other words, the west does not have a monopoly on tanking, and we can hold out a little more hope that the Lakers can fall further in the standings. Or you could argue that the Mavericks are playing better than a 7-20 team, although I’m not sure how you would make that case. Rick Carlisle deserves a fair share of credit for keeping their games competitive despite the team ultimately not having the talent to close out on potential wins.


According to Tankathon’s standings, each pick currently has a 4.3% chance to land in the top three. I’ve been clicking the “Sim Lottery” button at the top for a few minutes now and it never showed the Celtics getting the Lakers pick more than once. Naturally, the Nets pick falls around the same spot. So it’s about as exciting as it is boring. But hey, Memphis is consistently in the top five picks! If they go fully nuclear and move Gasol, the Celtics could have an unprotected pick in only four years.


If there’s any silver lining right now, it’s this: the Lakers are five games below .500 right now and have played one of the most forgiving schedules in the league. Their recent wins over the Sixers and Hornets were kind of a kick in the pants, but their upcoming schedule has a four-game stretch with one game against Cleveland, two against Golden State, and one against Houston, so I’ll be enjoying that bit of schadenfreude while it lasts.



bob
MY NOTE:  What this article does not take into account, and what makes Danny look like an even bigger genius, is that if we don't get the Laker's pick this year we'll get the at-least-as-bad Sacramento Kings pick next year.  If we kept the Nets pick this year would be it and if the Nets shock the world and have a decent, not good just decent, year then we'd end up with the 8th-11th pick this year.  Ok, not bad, but not earthshaking neither.  Next year, however, Sacramento will have a 37 year old Zebo and a 32 year old George Hill to anchor their still quite young team.  Sacto is currently 6th from the bottom.



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 The Duality of the Nets and Lakers Picks Empty Re: The Duality of the Nets and Lakers Picks

Post by sinus007 Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:07 pm

Hi,
Frankly, I didn't understand this article. What is it about?
Lakers 2018 pick? As it stands now, the probability of Celtics getting it is very, very low.
Nets 2018 pick? It is not Celtics' anymore. And if it's about "buyer's remorse" - the general consensus is that even if it's #1 KI is well worth it.

AK
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