I have a gut feeling........

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I have a gut feeling........

Post by kdp59 on Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:22 pm

nothing backing it up at all!!!


But I think the Kings are going to offer Smart the same deal they made to LaVine 4 years for $78 M.

When I look at their roster Smart seems like a perfect fit for them and they have the cap space to bring him on.

Lets be honest, Smart is every bit as good as LaVine also....so whats the downside for the Kings.

so, IF my gut is right (and its not just a bad case of gas)...what is Danny to do?

IMO, the first option is to try to work out a sign and trade with the Kings....with Harry Giles being the target for the player coming to Boston.

gyso pointed out that doing a RFA sign and trade will hard cap the Celtics at about $129 M for the entire season.

But bringing Giles and his $2.2 m salary only takes us up to $117.3 M in total cap number. Leaving us over $11 M in room left.

we'd also have 15 players under contract at that point. I would expect Bird to be signed to 2-3 year deal at around vet Minimum at that point and Nader to likely to be released.

roster then: ( projected Minutes)

Horford (2200)
Tatum (2400)
Hayward (2400)
Brown (2400)
Irving (2400)

Rozier (1800)
Morris (1600)
Baynes (1400)
Theis (1200)
Ojeleye (1000)

Giles
Bird
Williams
Yabusele
Wannamaker


again I have no info to say this will happen, just musings on a slow Sunday.







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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by kdp59 on Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:27 pm

of course the Kings would really have to reason to deal with Danny here and could likely call his bluff on matching the deal and sending the Celtics soaring into tax territory this year.

if so, Danny would likely have to let Smart go with nothing in return.

in that case Danny would only have the mid-level exception and minimum wag contracts to finish the roster with.

Bird again should be signed , but in this case I would look at two players

first option- Patrick McCraw- he is a RFA from GS and if Danny likes him he might be able to steal him with an offer in the $3-5 M range. The Warriors are well over the tax line in repeater world so every dollar now is valuable to them. McCraw is young and is a solid defender, even if he has some of the same shooting woes that bother Smart.

second- Look at an older vet like Tony Allen on a one year vet minimum deal.

Allen doesn't have a lot left, but he is a defensive minded vet, who won't you on game day.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by gyso on Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:37 pm

If Smart signs an offer sheet, the option of a sign and trade is no longer possible. He would have to come to a general agreement with another team and then get the two teams talking.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:51 pm

KDP59

You might want to take some tums for that gut.

There is no way on God's green earth that the Kings or anyone else for that matter will offer Smart a $19+ million 4 year deal. It is not going to happen.

That would be pure negligence on the part of the Kings because Boston will not match 12 or 13, 14 or 15. So why offer $19?

The Celtics may fold their hand North of the MLE.





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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by kdp59 on Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:11 pm

same offer they had for Lavine. Smart is a better player at least in my opinion.

if they offer Smart that deal he should take it, even though I prefer he stay here.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:06 pm

kdp59 wrote:same offer they had for Lavine. Smart is a better player  at least in my opinion.

if they offer Smart that deal he should take it, even though I prefer he stay here.

Teans want players that put the ball in the hole. Levine is a better offensive player than Smart.

Celtics fans only view Smart from a narrow prospective. There are a lot if teams out there that will not give him a green light to shoot the 3 ball. The Celtics are a good fit for Smart and Smart is a good for Boston.

Guards that cannot shoot are not getting paid.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by swish on Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:07 pm

dboss wrote:
kdp59 wrote:same offer they had for Lavine. Smart is a better player  at least in my opinion.

if they offer Smart that deal he should take it, even though I prefer he stay here.

Teans want players that put the ball in the hole.  Levine is a better offensive player than Smart.

Celtics fans only view Smart from a narrow prospective.  There are a lot if teams out there that will not give him a green light to shoot the 3 ball.  The Celtics are a good fit for Smart and Smart is a good for Boston.

Guards that cannot shoot are not getting paid.

"Guards that cannot shoot are not getting paid.[/quote]"

dboss

In regards to your above statement. - I agree 100 %

Other than Ricky Rubio - I can't think of any other guard that has shot as poorly as Smart and drawn a paycheck that would put him at a salary level 3 times the league average.
Rubio's salary this coming year will be 14.9 Mil. And given the fact that the Celtics will be faced with handing out some very big bucks over the next few years to a roster ( 5 players with outstanding offensive stats) that could very well be a huge financial burden down the road. Penny pinching for the backup positions could very likely be in store - with Smart being the 1st casualty.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:49 pm

Swish

My hope is that Smart gets another year at redemption...stay healthy and have NO off the court issues.  But the reality of the game is about the dollars and Danny is a master at making good decisions for the team.  His track record is such that fans should have a very high level of comfort with his decision making.  

There are few options for Marcus because few teams seem willing to offer a substantial payday.

Danny has positioned things where Boston can live with Smart or live without him.

An increase in the CAP for 2019 combined with more teams able to spend may be the best option for Smart.  He gets another chance to improve his value.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by kdp59 on Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:07 am

swish,

I didn't say the Celtics should sign Smart for that, I said the Kings could make that offer since they made that to Lavine.

now I guess some here think LaVine is a better NBA player than Smart, I would disagree.


either way, I think I may have been just lactose intolerant.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by NYCelt on Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:04 am

I hope kdp's gut is wrong.

Smart occupies a unique and important role here.

There isn't a good replacement for what he brings on defense, and the mental edge he lends to the club when he's on the floor.

Boston can afford a defensive specialist, because of the number of wings on the roster that can shoot and score.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:42 am

kdp59 wrote:swish,

I didn't say the Celtics should sign Smart for that, I said the Kings could make that offer since they made that to Lavine.

now I guess some here think LaVine is a better NBA player than Smart, I would disagree.


either way, I think I may have been just lactose intolerant.

Marcus Smart is a better defensive player than Levine. He is also a better defensive player than Kyrie Irving.

No one has stated that Levine is a better NBA Player than Smart. He is clearly a better offensive player than Smart but you can probably say that about just about every player in the NBA because Marcus is significantly below average as a shooter.

The Kings offer for Levine was very much on the high side but Chicago had the money to match and had added incentive to retain him since they are in great need of offensive players. Letting him walk would also diminish the return on trading Butler.

In any event, the Kings may now take a step back. Just because they were willing to overpay for Levine does not mean they will overpay for Smart or anyone else for that matter. Maybe the Kings are going to hold onto their CAP space to become a player down the road. There are no Allstar candidates on this team. They have a young roster with no stars. They will need to use FA to add that dynamic player and they will also need to move some of that young talent to add another allstar level player. They are not a destination for most players but a big offer cannot be overlooked. Everybody wants to get paid.









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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:14 pm

NYCelt wrote:I hope kdp's gut is wrong.

Smart occupies a unique and important role here.

There isn't a good replacement for what he brings on defense, and the mental edge he lends to the club when he's on the floor.

Boston can afford a defensive specialist, because of the number of wings on the roster that can shoot and score.

NYCelt

There is no doubt the need exists to retain Smart.

During the playoffs I repeatedly stated that Boston had to get him back if they were going to advance. That assessment was not just about needing Smart but was also about the fact that the roster was greatly depleted due to injuries.

Every need however has a price tag and that is really what is going on here.  That price tag is not just about paying Smart x dollars for x number of years but it has to take into account the long term impact of those dollars on The Celtics ability and willingness to spend on their valued core of players.

The Celtics have a solid core of players.  I think that if a value was placed on that core, Marcus would be somewhere around 7th.  

I think that Horford, Hayward, Irving, Brown, Tatum and Rozier have more value in terms of their abilities as well as their value to other teams in a trade situation and/or as free agents.

Smarts value has been hurt greatly by a hard free agent market, a lack of any measurable improvement year over year, an injury history
and questionable  off the court decision making.  Add to that the fact that the Celtics have a deep and talented roster of ball handlers and wings (3 and d guys).  Minutes will be difficult to distribute.  I'll make one more observation before I end here.  The Celtics have a significant number of first round draft picks.  That also reduces the amount of money that Boston is willing to spend on Smart.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by gyso on Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:11 pm

I believe that Smart is more important to the Celtics in terms of his abilities and his actual value to us.

I believe that Rozier is more important to another team in terms of his abilities and his potential value to that team.

It's an odd dynamic, for sure.

Time will tell how the Celtics (or the Kings) will deal with the Smart situation.

If Smart ends up having to accept the QO, I believe he will be gone and on his way to a new team next summer.  He may also carry an attitude all season.  All of this will be due to unmet expectations fed to him by his agent.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by swish on Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:50 pm

Even without Smarts defense - next years team will still be an outstanding defensive team while next years team figures to be exceptional on offense. The backups next year need only to be solid low cost replacements. Got to save money for the future when Irving, Brown and Tatum start reaching out for the big bucks. And add Hayward to the mix since he will only be 30 when his current contract expires. Something got to give.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:43 pm

While it is unlikel that Boston will have 4 first round picks going into the 2019 draft they will probably have at least 2.  The Kings pick should be a lottery pick.  

Kyrie will opt out but what about Al?
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by KyleCleric on Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:49 pm

dboss wrote:While it is unlikel that Boston will have 4 first round picks going into the 2019 draft they will probably have at least 2.  The Kings pick should be a lottery pick.  

Kyrie will opt out but what about Al?

I always assumed he'd opt in. Maybe he'll opt out and sign an extension. Something long term, 4 or 5 years, perhaps less money

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by cowens/oldschool on Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:48 am

So is anyone going to sign Smart, looks like the team does not want to go over the cap this year, and seems other teams are not valuing his game near his and his agents worth....???

Will Smart even be here next year with the logjam at wing carrying over to the 2...??
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by Ktronic1 on Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:48 am

gyso wrote:I believe that Smart is more important to the Celtics in terms of his abilities and his actual value to us.

I believe that Rozier is more important to another team in terms of his abilities and his potential value to that team.

It's an odd dynamic, for sure.

Time will tell how the Celtics (or the Kings) will deal with the Smart situation.

If Smart ends up having to accept the QO, I believe he will be gone and on his way to a new team next summer.  He may also carry an attitude all season.  All of this will be due to unmet expectations fed to him by his agent.

I wouldn’t concern myself so much with wondering about what kind of attitude Smart will carry all season. I think he’ll be fine. I would be more concerned about what effect this process with Smart will have on others like Rozier etc. who are seeing this and are next in line.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by gyso on Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:49 pm

Ktronic1 wrote:
gyso wrote:I believe that Smart is more important to the Celtics in terms of his abilities and his actual value to us.

I believe that Rozier is more important to another team in terms of his abilities and his potential value to that team.

It's an odd dynamic, for sure.

Time will tell how the Celtics (or the Kings) will deal with the Smart situation.

If Smart ends up having to accept the QO, I believe he will be gone and on his way to a new team next summer.  He may also carry an attitude all season.  All of this will be due to unmet expectations fed to him by his agent.

I wouldn’t concern myself so much with wondering about what kind of attitude Smart will carry all season. I think he’ll be fine. I would be more concerned about what effect this process with Smart will have on others like Rozier etc. who are seeing this and are next in line.

I don't see where the restricted free agent experience for Smart is any different from that throughout the history of restricted free agency. Especially for marginal players who have holes in their game. The team often offers the QO and makes the player wait for a while before coming to terms. The teams have the leverage, the player has none

The players often over value themselves and get frustrated with the wait. Any player's agent should be familiar with the process and not let his client get too discouraged by lack of quick results.

There is no bad guy here and there is no lesson to be learned by the next player in line.

Who is the last Celtics player who was drafted by the Celtics and stayed after his rookie deal was up? I think that you will have to go back a long time to name one. The one I come with is Glen Davis. He may not be the last one, but his experience was the same as Smart's. Big Baby did not get an offer, it was a long summer for him and us fans. He eventually came to terms.

So this is not a big deal, in my opinion. Hopefully Rozier's agent will better prepare his client for reality. Smart's agent failed in that regard.

gyso

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:15 pm

gyso wrote:
Ktronic1 wrote:
gyso wrote:I believe that Smart is more important to the Celtics in terms of his abilities and his actual value to us.

I believe that Rozier is more important to another team in terms of his abilities and his potential value to that team.

It's an odd dynamic, for sure.

Time will tell how the Celtics (or the Kings) will deal with the Smart situation.

If Smart ends up having to accept the QO, I believe he will be gone and on his way to a new team next summer.  He may also carry an attitude all season.  All of this will be due to unmet expectations fed to him by his agent.

I wouldn’t concern myself so much with wondering about what kind of attitude Smart will carry all season. I think he’ll be fine. I would be more concerned about what effect this process with Smart will have on others like Rozier etc. who are seeing this and are next in line.

I don't see where the restricted free agent experience for Smart is any different from that throughout the history of restricted free agency.  Especially for marginal players who have holes in their game.  The team often offers the QO and makes the player wait for a while before coming to terms.  The teams have the leverage, the player has none

The players often over value themselves and get frustrated with the wait.  Any player's agent should be familiar with the process and not let his client get too discouraged by lack of quick results.

There is no bad guy here and there is no lesson to be learned by the next player in line.  

Who is the last Celtics player who was drafted by the Celtics and stayed after his rookie deal was up?  I think that you will have to go back a long time to name one.  The one I come with is Glen Davis.  He may not be the last one, but his experience was the same as Smart's.  Big Baby did not get an offer, it was a long summer for him and us fans.  He eventually came to terms.

So this is not a big deal, in my opinion.  Hopefully Rozier's agent will better prepare his client for reality.  Smart's agent failed in that regard.

gyso

Avery Bradley
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by gyso on Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:47 pm

dboss wrote:
gyso wrote:
Ktronic1 wrote:
gyso wrote:I believe that Smart is more important to the Celtics in terms of his abilities and his actual value to us.

I believe that Rozier is more important to another team in terms of his abilities and his potential value to that team.

It's an odd dynamic, for sure.

Time will tell how the Celtics (or the Kings) will deal with the Smart situation.

If Smart ends up having to accept the QO, I believe he will be gone and on his way to a new team next summer.  He may also carry an attitude all season.  All of this will be due to unmet expectations fed to him by his agent.

I wouldn’t concern myself so much with wondering about what kind of attitude Smart will carry all season. I think he’ll be fine. I would be more concerned about what effect this process with Smart will have on others like Rozier etc. who are seeing this and are next in line.

I don't see where the restricted free agent experience for Smart is any different from that throughout the history of restricted free agency.  Especially for marginal players who have holes in their game.  The team often offers the QO and makes the player wait for a while before coming to terms.  The teams have the leverage, the player has none

The players often over value themselves and get frustrated with the wait.  Any player's agent should be familiar with the process and not let his client get too discouraged by lack of quick results.

There is no bad guy here and there is no lesson to be learned by the next player in line.  

Who is the last Celtics player who was drafted by the Celtics and stayed after his rookie deal was up?  I think that you will have to go back a long time to name one.  The one I come with is Glen Davis.  He may not be the last one, but his experience was the same as Smart's.  Big Baby did not get an offer, it was a long summer for him and us fans.  He eventually came to terms.

So this is not a big deal, in my opinion.  Hopefully Rozier's agent will better prepare his client for reality.  Smart's agent failed in that regard.

gyso

Avery Bradley

The Celtics signed him when he was a restricted free agent after his fourth season on July 15th.  His four year $32M deal was considered an overpay by many, yet in the end it was considered to be a good deal.

He still had to wait a bit before he signed. The Celtics were in serious rebuild mode, and needed some normalcy in Brad Stevens second season.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by gyso on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:33 pm

Glen Davis signed on August 10 when he was a restricted free agent. He only got a two year deal.


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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by dboss on Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:44 pm

So that mean AB signed a 2nd contract after his rookie contract was over.
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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by gyso on Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:40 pm

dboss wrote:So that mean AB signed a 2nd contract after his rookie contract was over.

This year, he resigned with the Clippers. This is his ninth season.

Four year rookie contract, four year next contract, this year.

So, I don't know where you are going with this.

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Re: I have a gut feeling........

Post by Ktronic1 on Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:49 pm

gyso wrote:
Ktronic1 wrote:
gyso wrote:I believe that Smart is more important to the Celtics in terms of his abilities and his actual value to us.

I believe that Rozier is more important to another team in terms of his abilities and his potential value to that team.

It's an odd dynamic, for sure.

Time will tell how the Celtics (or the Kings) will deal with the Smart situation.

If Smart ends up having to accept the QO, I believe he will be gone and on his way to a new team next summer.  He may also carry an attitude all season.  All of this will be due to unmet expectations fed to him by his agent.

I wouldn’t concern myself so much with wondering about what kind of attitude Smart will carry all season. I think he’ll be fine. I would be more concerned about what effect this process with Smart will have on others like Rozier etc. who are seeing this and are next in line.

I don't see where the restricted free agent experience for Smart is any different from that throughout the history of restricted free agency.  Especially for marginal players who have holes in their game.  The team often offers the QO and makes the player wait for a while before coming to terms.  The teams have the leverage, the player has none

The players often over value themselves and get frustrated with the wait.  Any player's agent should be familiar with the process and not let his client get too discouraged by lack of quick results.

There is no bad guy here and there is no lesson to be learned by the next player in line.  

Who is the last Celtics player who was drafted by the Celtics and stayed after his rookie deal was up?  I think that you will have to go back a long time to name one.  The one I come with is Glen Davis.  He may not be the last one, but his experience was the same as Smart's.  Big Baby did not get an offer, it was a long summer for him and us fans.  He eventually came to terms.

So this is not a big deal, in my opinion.  Hopefully Rozier's agent will better prepare his client for reality.  Smart's agent failed in that regard.

gyso
I understand restricted. However, every unrestricted doesn’t and hasn’t always gone in this pattern. There are teams who have signed their unrestricted players to a decent deal (Above qualifying offer )rather quickly. (Please Correct me if I’m wrong but Draymond Green comes to mind) If the word is that no one from the organization is talking to the player/agent, true or not, other players take notice of that. I also do not consider Big Baby to be on par with Smart when it comes to impacting their team and that players importance to that team.
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