Small Sample Size, But...

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Small Sample Size, But...

Post by bobheckler on Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:06 pm

Sean Grande
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Listen, I get it, sample size, the whole thing.

But the Celtics through 10 days are not only the best defensive team in the NBA, the gap between them and #2 Denver is bigger than #2 Denver through #9 Golden State.

Rozier, Smart and Tatum are 1-2-3 in defensive rating.





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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by swish on Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:57 pm

Fortunately this analysis is only based on 5 games - outstanding defense for sure - but woeful offense has the Celts only outscoring the opponet by 2.2 pts per game. Margin of victory much more accurate than either offensive or defensive rating when pointing out the highest quality teams. Winning for the most part goes hand and hand with the margin of victory.

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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by Matty on Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:52 pm

I was looking at some stats on Tatum today and was thinking, it's only 1/16.2 of the season... but still...

In this same we see boston is pretty much back where they left off, about the best defense in the league,
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by dboss on Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:27 pm

swish wrote:Fortunately this analysis is only based on 5 games - outstanding defense for sure - but woeful offense has the Celts only outscoring the opponet by 2.2 pts per game. Margin of victory much more accurate than either offensive or defensive rating when pointing out the highest quality teams. Winning for the most part goes hand and hand with the margin of victory.

  swish

Swish I disagree with you about this.  Check out their point differential last year.  It is similar to this year.  The Celts came within one game of the championship round with a 3+ differential.  They won a ton of close games.  Their offensive rating is likely to get better this year but no team is going to average a lot of points and hold teams down.

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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by cowens/oldschool on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:54 pm

We also did this without Baynes last few games, I really hope we can start Baynes when he gets back. If we can only get off to better starts, our point differential should increase. Al as a 4, a poor mans KG with Baynes taking on the brutes works great.
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by swish on Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:08 pm

dboss wrote:
swish wrote:Fortunately this analysis is only based on 5 games - outstanding defense for sure - but woeful offense has the Celts only outscoring the opponet by 2.2 pts per game. Margin of victory much more accurate than either offensive or defensive rating when pointing out the highest quality teams. Winning for the most part goes hand and hand with the margin of victory.

  swish

Swish I disagree with you about this.  Check out their point differential last year.  It is similar to this year.  The Celts came within one game of the championship round with a 3+ differential.  They won a ton of close games.  Their offensive rating is likely to get better this year but no team is going to average a lot of points and hold teams down.


dboss

Since 1979-80 only 2 teams with MOV of less than 4 pts per game have been the NBA champ (39 years).

MOV for the 37 champs with margins of 4 pts plus.

MOV 12 pts plus = 1
MOV 11 pts plus = 1
MOV 10 pts plus = 4
MOV 9 pts plus = 3
MOV 8 pts plus = 3
MOV 7 pts plus = 9
MOV 6 pts plus = 4
MOV 5 pts plus = 8
MOV 4 pts plus = 4

The 2 Champs with MOV's of under 4 pts were the 1994-95 Rockets (MOV = 2.12) and the 2005-06 Heat (MOV 3.87)

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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by dboss on Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:23 pm

I get it but keep in mind that Boston may be an exception to the rule. If the point differential is accurate how is it that Boston made it to the final 4 two years in a row even though a lot of teams outscored their opponents by more points?

Reason, the impact of great defense is under appreciated.
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by swish on Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:43 pm

dboss wrote:I get it but keep in mind that Boston may be an exception to the rule.  If the point differential is accurate how is it that Boston made it to the final 4 two years in a row even though a lot of teams outscored their opponents by more points?

Reason, the impact of great defense is under appreciated.

dboss

Basketball does not fall under the the Exact Science heading - and as a result exceptions to the rule do apply - so my numbers are just to point out the odds. Fortunately there are still 77 games to go so I expect that the offense will heat up and do their share to ensure that the Celts are among the best in terms of MOV.

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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by jrleftfoot on Sat Oct 27, 2018 12:19 am

swish wrote:
dboss wrote:I get it but keep in mind that Boston may be an exception to the rule.  If the point differential is accurate how is it that Boston made it to the final 4 two years in a row even though a lot of teams outscored their opponents by more points?

Reason, the impact of great defense is under appreciated.

dboss

Basketball does not fall under the the Exact Science heading - and as a result exceptions to the rule do apply - so my numbers are just to point out the odds. Fortunately there are still 77 games to go so I expect that the offense will heat up and do their share to ensure that the Celts are among the best in terms of MOV.

  swish
+ 1. love the statistical analyses from swish. always thought -provoking.
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by bobheckler on Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:13 am

MOV is an extremely compelling stat.  What it points to is domination over 82 games.  Such a stat might not be seen if the league has more parity, especially within a single conference.  Last year the EC had 4 teams that were pretty good (Toronto, Boston, Cleveland and Philly) playing the bulk of their games vs other EC teams.  The WC had, what, 2 (GSW and Houston) beating up on the WC?

What I'd be interested in learning is "is there a difference between Champs with high MOVs at the low end (i.e. Great defense, mediocre offense but a wide difference between them) vs at the high end (i.e. Great offense, mediocre defense but a wide difference between them)?"

The league is trending towards offense, the D'Antoni Model (ick) with GSW and its high scoring being the poster child, but the 2008 Boston Celtics were at the other end, with a ferocious defense and solid offense.  Both had high MOVs.

Defense Wins Championships, we know that, but in a league that values offense (translation:  the refs will blow their whistles on defenders more often than swallow them) where in the scale do we want to fall?


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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by cowens/oldschool on Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:16 am

I say defense
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by gyso on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:05 am

cowens/oldschool wrote:I say defense

Defense first. Rock solid base.

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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by swish on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:19 am

How about a tie - as both the offense and defense ranked 7th in terms of points scored or allowed. That's the average league ranking for the 39 champs. On average - no big edge either way.

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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by jrleftfoot on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:58 am

swish wrote:How about a tie - as both the offense and defense ranked 7th in terms of points scored or allowed. That's the average league ranking for the 39 champs. On average - no big edge either way.

  swish
Yeah, Stevens said it's not about offense or defense, it's about playing together and having fun. I'm paraphrasing.
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by cowens/oldschool on Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:44 pm

I think our defense hasn’t even amped it up yet, we can get into them better and that will create better running and offense.
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

Post by dboss on Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:22 pm

The Celtics have a roster full of high-end offensive players and while the struggle to score the defense is the reason why they are not 0-5.

Defense is hard to play. Defense requires energy and a real commitment. As the league embraces a trend to focus on offense, teams that can defend will be able to win because they can shut down a great offense.

I think Boston has the talent to be solid at both ends.
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Re: Small Sample Size, But...

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