The Sacto Pick

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Post by bobheckler on Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:50 pm

Chris Forsberg @ChrisForsberg_
about 21 minutes ago
Since interest in #KingsPick seems to have picked up after the Duke game last night, current #KingsPick odds (based on 538 projection of finishing with 7th worst record): No. 1: 7.5% Nos. 2-5: 25.8% Nos. 2-10: 82.1% Lottery: 99.9%



bob
MY NOTE:  We do not want them to get the #1 pick since it is protected if #1.  I'm very fine with an 82% chance of top 10 and a early-season lock on the lottery. 26% of 2-5 might be the sweet spot. This is something we should keep an eye on.



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Post by dboss on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:14 pm

2-5 would be a perfect for us.

We also have a shot at the LAC and Memphis picks plus our own That's 4 first rounders this year.

Seems unlikely that the Celtics would be able to absorb 4 rookies.

As the season progresses, it will be very interesting to see where these teams are in the overall standing.
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Post by kdp59 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:31 pm

Memphis pick is almost a lock to me...but its a long season and they could have the injury bug again I guess.
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Post by NYCelt on Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:37 pm

Just take one of the three Duke Freshmen; Williamson, Barrett or Reddish. We'll need to be a top 4 pick to do it.

Take this one to the bank... Williamson will be the best all-around player in the NBA 5 or 6 years from now. 2018-2019 NCAA men's hoops fearless prediction #1. For the record, I am saying that after he played just one college game. I'm consistent though. Said that after seeing a broadcast of one of his high school games too.
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Post by bobc33 on Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:19 pm

When NYCelt talks college players, people listen! (Reading your post made me think of the EF Hutton commercials)
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Post by kdp59 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:26 am

NYCelt wrote:Just take one of the three Duke Freshmen; Williamson, Barrett or Reddish. We'll need to be a top 4 pick to do it.

Take this one to the bank... Williamson will be the best all-around player in the NBA 5 or 6 years from now. 2018-2019 NCAA men's hoops fearless prediction #1. For the record, I am saying that after he played just one college game. I'm consistent though. Said that after seeing a broadcast of one of his high school games too.


reminds me of Larry Johnson his first few years before injury's took their toll on him. I think some compare him to Barkley also. Both are comparisons because of his size and game of course.


one would always worry about a young guy with such weight who's game is about athletic ability in the long run though.


I doubt we'll have a high enough pick for either Barrett or Williamson..maybe Reddish.

though I'm looking to see what happens with Charles Bassey and Bol Bol..but I always have a thing for big men in the draft. Either way we have to hope the Kings start playing more like the Kings!

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Post by Shamrock1000 on Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:45 am

NYCelt wrote:Just take one of the three Duke Freshmen; Williamson, Barrett or Reddish. We'll need to be a top 4 pick to do it.

Take this one to the bank... Williamson will be the best all-around player in the NBA 5 or 6 years from now. 2018-2019 NCAA men's hoops fearless prediction #1. For the record, I am saying that after he played just one college game. I'm consistent though. Said that after seeing a broadcast of one of his high school games too.

The kid is an absolute beast!

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Post by dboss on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:03 am

NYCelt wrote:Just take one of the three Duke Freshmen; Williamson, Barrett or Reddish. We'll need to be a top 4 pick to do it.

Take this one to the bank... Williamson will be the best all-around player in the NBA 5 or 6 years from now. 2018-2019 NCAA men's hoops fearless prediction #1. For the record, I am saying that after he played just one college game. I'm consistent though. Said that after seeing a broadcast of one of his high school games too.

I would not bet against either Williams or Barrett

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yIo8wqqmHk
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Post by dboss on Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:17 am

Some are comparing Williamson to Charles Barkley. I think a better comparison would be Lebron James. Perhaps somewhere in between the two of them.

Barrett is a smooth effortless scorer. Very skilled.

I would take either one of them or Reddish as well.

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Post by NYCelt on Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:07 pm

bobc33 wrote:When NYCelt talks college players, people listen!  (Reading your post made me think of the EF Hutton commercials)

Bob,

Being in the business, I loved those old ads!

Regards
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Post by bobheckler on Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:36 pm

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/why-celtics-2019-nba-draft-080138363.html



Why Celtics' 2019 NBA draft plans could be changed by Kings' hot start



NBC Sports BayArea
14 hours ago



Why Celtics' 2019 NBA draft plans could be changed by Kings' hot start originally appeared on nbcsportsbayarea.com

The Sacramento Kings have a better record than the Boston Celtics on the day after Thanksgiving. Who saw that coming?

Certainly not the Celtics, whose 2019 NBA draft plans possibly are being ruined in the process.

At 10-8, the Kings are just .007 win percentage points out of a Western Conference playoff spot, so if the season ended today -- we know it doesn't -- they'd receive a lottery pick in the draft.

Not so fast, though: That pick actually would go to the Celtics through some complicated maneuvers resulting from Sacramento's 2015 Carl Landry-Jason Thompson-Nik Stauskas trade with the Philadelphia 76ers. Essentially, the Celtics will receive the more favorable of the 76ers' and the Kings' 2019 first-round picks unless that pick is No. 1 overall, in which case Boston would acquire the least favorable of Philadelphia and Sacramento's selections.

The Celtics' hope entering the season was that the Kings would be, well, the Kings and finish toward the Western Conference cellar. But they aren't, so right now, Sacramento's pick, pending how the ping-pong balls dropped and how the random tiebreaker draw went, would be either No. 13 or No. 14.

Because the Eastern Conference is weak beyond the Raptors, Bucks and 76ers, the 9-9 Celtics would make the playoffs if the season ended today, even though they're one win worse than the Kings. A first-round exit -- a shocker for a team once favored to win the conference -- could put Boston's own pick at No. 15.

The Celtics might have four first-round selections in next year's draft, if scenarios involving the Clippers and the Grizzlies fall their way. But landing just a mid-round pick from the Kings surely wasn't what Boston had in mind.



bob
MY NOTE:  If it's too early to count the Celtics out it's also too early to count on the Sacramento Queens.  There's only 2 1/2 games between Sacto (10th in the WC) and Minny (14th) and Minny currently has the 9th worst record in the NBA.  Don't lose faith!  It's still early and a losing streak by Sacto, a run by the TimberPups, Jazz and Doncic's Mavs could put us in much better position.  Either way this pick is pure gravy.  We already won the deal with Tatum vs Fultz, bigly. The only question is whether Bryan Colangelo gets burned in effigy in Philly like Billy King got burned in effigy in Brooklyn.


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Post by wideclyde on Fri Nov 23, 2018 5:52 pm

No matter where the Cs or the Kings end up record-wise, the Cs will not have four first round rookies on their roster for next season. Some of these picks will have to get traded.

Even if the Cs, this season, do not rise to the level that everyone expected them to play, next year is all of a sudden not going to become a rebuilding year as there is already too much invested in having next season still being a part of this latest "window" for a championship run or two.

Horford is not going to opt (and take a huge pay cut for the 2019-20 season) out so only Rozier, Morris and Irving are potential key free agents. Theis will also be a free agent next summer, but he is still only a
rotation" type player and will much easier to replace. At the least, one of Irving or Rozier is likely to be re-signed.

Still, no room for 4 first round rookies on the roster or even on the salary list since they would all gain guaranteed contracts.

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Post by bobheckler on Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:52 am

Just a quick update, as of 12/10/18 a.m.

Sacto has the #14 pick.  They are 13-12, which is good for 9th place in the WC and out of the playoffs.

WC Rank............Team................W/L Record........Games Back
8.......................Dallas...............13-11...............3.5
9.......................Sacramento.......13-12...............4
10.................... New Orleans......14-14...............4.5
11.....................Minnesota.........13-13................4.5
12.....................San Antonio.......13-14...............5
13.....................Utah.................13-14...............5

So, you can see it's pretty tight, just 1 game separating the #14 pick in the draft and #10 and only half a game between Sacto and the playoffs.

Notes:  

1.  Utah has played 10 home games and 17 away.  That will balance out to their favor as we go further into the season.

2.  The Celtics play Nwalins tonight.  That might/hopefully helps Sacto short-term because we beat NOP.

3.  Sacto plays Chicago tonight.  Probably a win for Sacto unless we shamed the Bulls to the point where they come out and play like demons.

4. Sacto has played more away games than home games but are a mediocre 6-5 at home anyway (and are 7-7 away). Dallas has played more home games than away, 13 vs 11, but their home record is an excellent 11-2 (their away record is an execrable 2-9). If Dallas can play better on the road, and they can't get much worse than 2-9, they should be able to pull away from Sacto because of their vastly superior home winning percentage. I'd also be very surprised if Sacto maintained a .500 road record through the season.


bob


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Post by kdp59 on Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:43 pm

https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft


https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-mock-draft-dukes-zion-williamson-takes-over-the-top-spot-and-kentucky-has-two-projected-first-rounders/


as one can see, it is WAY early and mock drafts are very unsettled to date (as well as the location of all picks of course).

I still think we end up with the Kings pick in the top 10 at least, hopefully top 5.

the Memphis and Clippers picks are looking more and more like they will be Danny's pocket as well come draft day.

IF that turns out to be right and no trades involving some of those picks happens, I would expect Danny to move one or two of the later picks for first rounders in future drafts.

hard to see him wanting to keep all 4 picks
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Post by tjmakz on Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:30 am

Sacramento is definitely one of the surprise teams of the 2018-19 NBA season.
I expected them to finish with the 2nd to worst record in the western conference.
Right now they look like playoff contenders in the west.
They are 16-13 and have played 13 home and 16 away games.
Sacramento is a fun team to watch, even when they are playing without their #2 overall pick Marvin Bagley.
Buddy Hield, De'Aaron fox and Cauley-Stein have all increased their productiveness and scoring this season.
As of today, Boston's Sacramento pick would be #19.

After a hot start, the Clippers have been playing poorly lately and are now without Lou Williams.
The Clippers have lost 5 out of their last 6 games and have lost by more than 20 points in 3 of those games.
Their upcoming schedule into January is brutal.
I expect the Clippers to be passed in the standings by a number of teams in the next few weeks, including from Houston and New Orleans who are currently in 11th and 12th place in the west.
I am very doubtful that Boston will receive the Clippers lottery protected 2019 1st round pick, as I do not think the Clippers will make the playoffs.

In my opinion, the best chance Boston has to get a 9-14 pick in the 2019 NBA draft is from Memphis.
Even though they have had a hot start, I am not a believer in their long term success.
Based on Memphis upcoming schedule, they will probably be underdogs in 7 of their next 8 games.
Since Phoenix and the non-playoff teams in the east are pretty bad teams, if Memphis does not make the playoffs, there's a very good chance Boston will receive Memphis pick in the 9-14 range.
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Post by worcester on Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:02 am

"bob
MY NOTE: We do not want them to get the #1 pick since it is protected if #1. "

Bob - enough with the JUJU against Sacto finishing with the worst record! Let's hope they and Memphis come back to earth.
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Post by dboss on Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:58 pm

Here are some projections for all teams.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/projections/standings/

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Post by worcester on Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:38 pm

We are projected to win the NBA title over GSW?
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Post by kdp59 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:54 am

I am going to be highly disappointed if the Kings win anywhere close to 39 games.



https://hoopshype.com/2018/12/17/zion-williamson-mock-draft-college-basketball-rumors-updates/

they do this so I don't have to anymore....... I like it!



The Sacto Pick Aggregated-Mock-Draft-2019-4


Last edited by kdp59 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:30 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by kdp59 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:05 am

for anyone interested in the draft this early, here is a site that has a lot of early write ups on many of the players.

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2019-nba-mock-draft.html

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Post by dbrown4 on Tue Dec 18, 2018 8:40 am

dboss and NYCelt,

On Williamson, I'll take the other side with a complete bust. The NBA Draft is littered with top picks that have busted, gotten injured, quit, etc., like Mt Everest is with empty oxygen tanks and dead bodies. There's some ghost lingering.

You'll win though! I am the worst handicapper of all time!

db
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Post by wideclyde on Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:05 am

Sacramento got clobbered last night. There is still hope that they will end up with a poor record-like usual.

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Post by dboss on Tue Dec 18, 2018 9:54 am

The Kings are a frightful defensive team. I expect them to find their bottom.

Alll 4 picks are in play.
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Post by bobheckler on Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:33 am

Sacto lost their 2nd in a row last night, to Portland.  Just like in the Laker game, they lost it in crunch time despite having a lead.

A combination of our loss to the Spurs and those losses by Sacramento put them in 9th place in the WC, a lottery team.  This puts them in the 14th spot lottery-wise.

As far as the lottery goes, it doesn't matter which conference you are in, only your record. So if Brooklyn goes on a run and catches the Kings then that is just as good for us as Dallas catching them.

As of 1/2/19 the bottom of the lottery looks like this:

Team..................Record........GB
Sacramento........19-18..........---
Memphis............18-18.........1/2
Utah..................18-20.........1 1/2
Dallas................17-19.........1 1/2
Minnesota..........17-20..........2
New Orleans......17-21..........2 1/2
Brooklyn............17-21.. ......2 1/2
Orlando.............16-20.........2 1/2

2 1/2 games, at most 3 wins or 3 losses, from 7th with lots and lots of time to go in the season.


bob


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Post by worcester on Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:03 am

Bob, I'm not sure how to interpret your chart on the bottom of the lottery given the win percentage records of these six teams:

Washington - .378
ATL - .308
Bulls - .270
Knicks - .237
Phx - .237
Cleveland - .218
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