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Post by bobheckler on Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:23 pm

The Celtics are 28th in the NBA in ftas/game, 19.8/game.  To give you an idea of just how bad that is here are some other teams' ftas/game to benchmark us to:


NBA Rank.......Team........................FTAs/game
1......................LAC..........................29.3
5......................New Orleans..............25.2
10....................Minnesota..................24.5
15....................LAL...........................23.4
20....................Denver......................22.3
25....................Indiana.....................20.7
28....................Boston.....................19.8

So, the distance between 1st and 5th (4.1ftas/game) is only slightly larger than the distance between 5th and 25th (4.5ftas/game).  Just as we went from the 28th offense (or something like that) up to our current ranking of 12th by putting together a couple weeks of good offense, we could turn this around too.  However, there's these words from Brad:

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Here's Brad Stevens' philosophy on the Celtics' low free throw rate:
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What do you think about this?


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Post by wideclyde on Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:31 pm

The amount of free throw attempts a team gets is a very important part of the game.

First, it gets you potential points at about a 70% team average shooting percentage.

Second, and more importantly in many situations, the number of fouls drawn can very much dictate
to the opposing coach who he can have on the floor at various times. As an example of Irving picks up two early first quarter points, he is likely to be taken out for the remainder of that quarter. Of course, if a guy fouls out he must be replaced late in games, and if he is a starter he gets replaced by a (usually) less talented bench player.

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Post by worcester on Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:03 pm

I'm surprised Houston does not rank higher, with Harden the king of fta's.
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Post by dboss on Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:15 pm

FT are the difference between losing a close game or winning it.

I believe strongly that a team should maximize opportunities to score the basketball using all available schemes to do that.  

FT should never be ignored.  Boston shoots close to 80% from the line.

Brad is so focused on the 3 pointer mainly that his team leaves a lot of opportunities on the table.
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Post by dboss on Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:17 pm

wideclyde wrote:The amount of free throw attempts a team gets is a very important part of the game.

First, it gets you potential points at about a 70% team average shooting percentage.

Second, and more importantly in many situations, the number of fouls drawn can very much dictate
to the opposing coach who he can have on the floor at various times.  As an example of Irving picks up two early first quarter points, he is likely to be taken out for the remainder of that quarter.  Of course, if a guy fouls out he must be replaced late in games, and if he is a starter he gets replaced by a (usually) less talented bench player.

Good points.
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Post by dbrown4 on Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:44 pm

It's a math thing. I've highlighted this on different threads, but a FT has an expected value of about .75 points. A 2-point shot has an EV of .96 points and a 3-pt shot has an EV of 1.06 points. Oddly enough, freebies are not really free and are the low man on the totem pole. That always surprises me!

Actually the Celtics are playing the percentages correctly. This is why the shift in the league has been away from free throws and more toward 3's. You can still win that was as you need to measure what percentage of the time you drive to the basket, make it, get fouled and then make the free throw. I'm just going to guess that is around 25% of the time.

The risks of driving to the lane are getting introduced to your back side, landing on someone's foot and twisting/fracturing your ankle, other bodily injury, concussions, etc...just to get a 25% chance of getting a three point play out of it. Jacking it up from 3-ville is pretty risk averse as far as injury goes. You're typically not going to jack on up with someone in your face. Defense is either running at you at an angle or not on you at all.

dboss is correct in that it is a very important factor in the game of scoring with 2pt and 3pt shots filling out the roster. And BOS is above the league average of 77%. It just appears in this day and age, the pendulum has swung or at least is swinging to the other side.

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Post by mrkleen09 on Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:35 pm

Unless you have a offensive game built around inside play, I dont see the point.

I highlighted the 15 best NBA teams in FTA and then resorted the list by Winning %, and you see a much different story.

10 of the 15 best teams in the NBA and the 4 best teams in the league - are NOT on the FTA list.

Seems like you are better off to NOT be on the FTA list.  Smile

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Post by dboss on Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:29 pm

The bottom line is that teams that are good at both ends of the floor will be in the mix come playoff time offensive teams.

Teams that have certain strengths in one area but weaknesses in another can still win.

For example.  The Bucks are # 1 in scoring and #3 in PITP.  Golden State is dead last in PITP but they are #1 in true shooting %.  

The question for Celtics fans is how can the Celtics become a better offensive team.  More PITP where they are near the bottom would help and that effort of scoring in the paint more frequently should lead to a few more FT attempts.

I think wydeclyde nails down the impact beyond the points derived from the line vs a 3 pointer for example.

Fouls forces the other team to alter their rotations and it can often keep a really good player on the bench.  

The Celtics are 9th overall in offensive efficiency.  That number is not going to change that much unless their offense becomes more diverse.
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Post by worcester on Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:07 pm

But aren't the Celts #2 in offense the past 14 games?
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