Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

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Should Boston trade for Gortat? Multiple answers allowed

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Total Votes : 22

Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by bobheckler on Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:17 pm

He's not happy in Phoenix. He doesn't feel like he's a big enough part of the Suns' offense. I have always found him to be VERY fundamentally sound and we have to start thinking post-KG era. I'm not comfortable with the idea that Fab Melo is that piece, even in a couple of years.

He is making $7.3M this year and $7.7M next year. Assuming he would agree to sign an extension with us past next year, who would you give up for him? We're loaded at guard, would you give up Avery Bradley for a better-than-average 28 year old, 6'11", 240# center? Jeff Green? JET? Who?

I'm not a fan of John Hollinger's PER (a classic understatement) since it under-represents unquantified defensive contributions like deflected passes and full-court pressing, but I do find it interesting when a player that has a rep for being a better defender than an offensive threat has a 20.5 PER (15.0 is league-average). and his opponent's PER is 16.2. Gortat is currently #2 in the league in blocked shots, behind human-pogo stick Serge Ibaka of OKC.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html


http://www.82games.com/1213/12PHO14.HTM

http://hoopshype.com/players/marcin_gortat.htm


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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by RosalieTCeltics on Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:02 pm

Well, I like Gortat's game, but, I am not willing to give up on Jeff Green. I know there are many out there who are not fans of Green, but, Danny is NOT going to give up on this kid just yet. Bradley, I don't know, Doc loves him, I can't see him giving him up.

This is a tough one. If Darko goes, would they also let Collins go and make room for him? Lots of questions here.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by sinus007 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:58 pm

Hi,
I selected the first "YES" because I don't like any others. Don't like to give up any of those, except maybe Lee.
I guess if Danny goes for him and PHX agrees they'd want one of the Celtics bigs. I say - BB + a pick or Melo.
Another plus, if the deal is done, would be the timing - Jan 15 - plenty of time for Gortat to get into the groove in Boston.

AK

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Sam on Mon Nov 19, 2012 9:36 pm

Bob,

I can't see the possibility of any trade by the Celtics for Gortat until December 15. Green, Bass, Lee, Terry, Collins, Darko, Barbosa, Wilcox and Joseph have all signed contracts recently and can't be traded until Dec. 15. Even if Danny wanted to include Bradley Avery's contract is FAR too small to exchange straight up for Gortat, and the Celts would have to include Rondo or Garnett to have a shot at salary equality. Maybe Danny can pull a Gortat rabbit out of his hat, but I can't see how until mid-December.

Sam


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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by 112288 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 9:41 pm

December 15th is just around the corner and so could the out come of our season position wise if we bury ourselves by digging a hole that we cannot get out of a 7th or 8th seed position!!!!

I would trade Bass and a draft pick or Melo and a draft pick. Gortat is a strong SOB, he can rebound and has a nice touch around the rim. He gave the Celtics fits while playing for Orlando.

Great length if occasionally you slide KG back to power forward position and play Gortat at center.

I CAN HEAR TOMMY NOW...............THE POLISH HAMMER!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Sam on Mon Nov 19, 2012 10:06 pm

112288,

And now I read elsewhere that January 15th, not December 15, is the deadline. It sure would be nice to get the definitive word from an official source. Melo and a draft pick is not a possibility because it would fall dramatically short of required the exchange of salaries.

NBA trade-checker or some such vehicle is a good source to consult when considering trades. That's what informed me that Green, Bass, Lee, Terry, Sullinger, Collins, Darko, Melo, Barbosa, Wilcox and Joseph aren't yet eligible to be traded.

Maybe Danny can work a miracle, or perhaps everything can be delayed until after the December 15 or January 15 deadline—whichever is correct.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by 112288 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 10:14 pm

Sam, good point about salary. Do not trade Joseph..he's a Bradley 1 year from now or now if Doc played the kid.

They would need a big back so it would take one of our bigs...Collins if they are dumb enough.

What about Darko...if he leaves the team...does his salary come off the cap?

Grotat is a guy who is low key...likes to get down and dirty and work the paint and boards and you do not sit hoping he performs...he'll perform! He would help bring size and a strong body to the 5 position who can do battle with other bigs in the NBA.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by 112288 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 10:19 pm

Sam

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by 112288 on Mon Nov 19, 2012 10:34 pm

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Sam on Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:12 am

112288,

Those are interesting lists of dates, but they don't include the date I'm looking for. I'm talking about the earliest date a team can trade a player they recently signed (as well as what constitutes "recently").

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by 112288 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:40 am

I tried everywhere could not find. Perhaps the date to sign 10 day contracts (January 10th) is an indication of early trade date.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by gyso on Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:15 am

Here is what Larry Coon thinks about trading away free agent (FA) signees:

92. When can a team trade a free agent it signs? Do they have to keep him forever?

Generally a team only has to keep a player for three months after signing a contract or December 15 (*1) of that season, whichever is later. This does not apply to draft picks, who can be traded 30 days after signing. For sign-and-trade transactions, the initial trade which completes the sign-and-trade obviously is allowed, even though it occurs right after the player is signed. The trade restriction in a sign-and-trade applies to the first subsequent trade.

See question number 97 for more information on trade restrictions.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(*1) January 15 if the player is a Larry Bird or Early Bird free agent, re-signs with his prior team, his team is over the cap, and he receives a raise greater than 20% in the first season of his contract.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q92

Any new FA's signed, December 15th.

Any prior Celtic FA re-signed using a Bird rule along with a 20% raise, January 15th.

It is a mixed bag, some players can be traded in December, for some they have to wait until January. The 20% raise makes it harder to track because it requires a little digging as to how much the player made in the prior season.

I liked what I saw in the preseason with Darko, until the wrist sidelined him. I believed that the injury was the key factor in keeping him on the bench. I still believe that. His mother's illness is just a new twist.

Not included in the poll above is Brandon Bass. I would be willing to trade Bass for Gortat, but that is not how the poll was constructed. None of the other options appeal to me, because my choice is to NOT include in any trade ALL the players listed in the poll.

gyso


Last edited by gyso on Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:27 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : hopefully fixed an awkwardly written, hard to understand (and I wrote it!) sentence)

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by bobheckler on Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:00 am

The trade suggested by the ESPN analyst who is suggesting that Gortat would be a great destination for Boston was Gortat for Lee and Bradley. Those numbers work, I believe. Still don't know when they'll work. Whether Phoenix would trade a center for 2 guards, I don't know that either.


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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by 112288 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:15 am

I would never trade Bradley! As KG is the quarterback on defense...Bradley is first line of attack and the instrument that makes it happen..Ball Pressure...ball Pressure...Ball pressure!

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Sam on Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:21 pm

Thanks for the clarification, Gyso.

I assume Darko's gone. I'm sorry about his mother, but I bet the fact that (unless key injuries occurred) he seemed destined to get very little sustained playing time for the Celtics made it an easier decision for him. Perhaps we'll see how much the wrist factored into the decision by whether or not he signs on with a European team.

I believe the Celtics need to be in the weapons business.

• I see Gortat being a potential weapon and a major upgrade over Darko.

• I'd be okay with trading Lee because, although he's showing signs of being very useful, I don't view him as being a major weapon in any one area.

• I do view Bradley as being a major defensive weapon (in ways that can act as an offensive catalyst).

• I view Bass not as a weapon on the order of KG, Pierce, Rondo, Terry or even Bradley, but he provides assets at PF that Sullinger does not—particularly in transition.

The way I'd look at a trade of Lee and Bradley for Gortat or Bass and Bradley for Gortat would be that the Celtics would sacrifice quality depth at two positions to gain quality depth at one position. Either way, they'd be trading at least one major weapon for another major weapon. And they'd be trading considerably more than just a weapon if they included Bass and Bradley.

If they could trade Lee and Collins for Gortat or Lee and Melo for Gortat (both of which would work financially), I'd be inclined to do the deal, especially since it's hoped that Bradley will be back by mid-December. I'd even sweeten it with a draft pick. If they trade one weapon for another weapon, I see them treading water. If they trade one weapon plus an important complementary piece for another weapon, they're losing ground.

Besides, if they were to trade Bradley, Cowens would commit hari kari in no time.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by bobheckler on Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:34 pm

The general rule of trades is "whichever team gets the best player, won, regardless of how much they gave up to get him". That was true with the Ray Allen trade (West, Wally and #5), that was true with the KG trade (Big Al, Gomes, Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, some cash and some draft picks) and that was true with the Bass trade (Big Baby and Von Wafer).

If we use this guideline, then which players on the Celtics are better than Gortat, a very serviceable starting center and the best backup center in the league? Those players should be exempted from the trade.


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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by mrkleen09 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:39 pm

bobheckler wrote:The general rule of trades is "whichever team gets the best player, won, regardless of how much they gave up to get him". That was true with the Ray Allen trade (West, Wally and #5), that was true with the KG trade (Big Al, Gomes, Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, some cash and some draft picks) and that was true with the Bass trade (Big Baby and Von Wafer).

If we use this guideline, then which players on the Celtics are better than Gortat, a very serviceable starting center and the best backup center in the league? Those players should be exempted from the trade.

By that criteria

Those who should be exempted:

-KG, Pierce, Rondo, Terry, Green, Bradley.

Anyone else is fair game.

Although, I am pretty happy with the team we have right now....so not sure there is a need to make any moves right now.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by sinus007 on Tue Nov 20, 2012 1:05 pm

Hi,
I agree with Mrkleen's exemptions with * - Celtics shouldn't trade two of a kind, e.g. BB+Sully.

AK

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Outside on Tue Nov 20, 2012 1:33 pm

Miscellaneous thoughts about this.

I voted "Yes, but not give up Bradley."

Gortat is a very good, generally underrated center. He's agile, long, hustles, has skills, is level-headed, and seems smart. He's very good at pick and roll, not particularly great at creating his own shot. He rebounds, defends, and blocks shots. From a basketball standpoint, making a play for him is a no-brainer.

Giving up Bradley doesn't make sense to me. He showed remarkable potential last season. Unless it's a trade for a young all-star, they have to keep this guy.

The "whoever gets the best player in a deal wins" maxim is right most of the time. The classic example of it not being true is in football, when the Vikings gave up five players and eight high draft picks for Herschel Walker and four lower draft picks. I also think the Nuggets got the best of the Carmelo trade with the Knicks.

I'd be okay with giving up two power forwards (Bass and Sullinger) in this case because you'd also gain a power forward -- KG, who would no longer have to play center all the time.

Overall, I think trading for Gortat would be a great idea, and I'm highly skeptical that it will happen.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by bobheckler on Tue Nov 20, 2012 1:42 pm

Outside wrote:Miscellaneous thoughts about this.

I voted "Yes, but not give up Bradley."

Gortat is a very good, generally underrated center. He's agile, long, hustles, has skills, is level-headed, and seems smart. He's very good at pick and roll, not particularly great at creating his own shot. He rebounds, defends, and blocks shots. From a basketball standpoint, making a play for him is a no-brainer.

Giving up Bradley doesn't make sense to me. He showed remarkable potential last season. Unless it's a trade for a young all-star, they have to keep this guy.

The "whoever gets the best player in a deal wins" maxim is right most of the time. The classic example of it not being true is in football, when the Vikings gave up five players and eight high draft picks for Herschel Walker and four lower draft picks. I also think the Nuggets got the best of the Carmelo trade with the Knicks.

I'd be okay with giving up two power forwards (Bass and Sullinger) in this case because you'd also gain a power forward -- KG, who would no longer have to play center all the time.

Overall, I think trading for Gortat would be a great idea, and I'm highly skeptical that it will happen.


outside,

I agree with all your points.

The axiom I cited was for basketball only. Due to the relatively few players on a basketball team and the concentration of minutes in only half of them (or less!) the reward for a qualitative upgrade is greater in basketball than it would be in any other sport (table tennis and curling probably would be exceptions).

I doubt it will happen either, but you never know with Trader Danny!


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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Sam on Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:02 pm

Bob and Outside,

First, I don't agree with "winning the trade" as a criterion of a general manager. His main criterion has to be whether the net result of the trade, from his team's standpoint, is to make his team more competitive than it was before the trade. If it also helps the other team equally or to be even more competitive than before the trade, who cares? That's what trades are intended to do, and there were many teams who were reluctant or opposed to dealing with Auerbach because it didn't happen in enough cases.

Any player, or combination of players, who might be traded for Gortat must leave the Celtics in better position than before. It's never about individual vs. individual. It's always about meeting team needs better than before the trade.

Let's take a trade of Bass and Sullinger for Gortat. The Celtics would improve their situation by getting a real center who I believe can be a real weapon. That's very nice.

But who's going to start at center? Let's say it's Gortat. What will KG's role be? To start at PF? Okay, now we're got Wilcox backing up Gortat and Mr. X backing up KG. Who's Mr. X? Wilcox? Nope, he's backing up Gortat. Green? Okay, then who's backing up Pierce? Lee's too short and may be needed to guard taller SGs. If they thought Joesph were ready, he'd be on the active roster.

I could elaborate on the potential ripple effects that trading two PFs would cause. I could talk about how a team that's already struggling to get in synch with one another now would embark on an extended struggle with so many of their roles revamped. All of a sudden, one of the presumed strengths of the team (versatility and depth) is now seriously compromised by basically wiping out the incumbents of an entire position who can easily play 48 minutes at that position) and having to make all sorts of adjustments (with a foundation of only a part-timer in the position) to try to accommodate the situation. The team's still guard-heavy and even thinner at the "big" positions.

Trading away Lee and Bradley would present much the same scenario, except there would be no player to switch over from another position to fill in the guard gap. It would be Rondo, Terry and Barbosa, which might be a pretty good backcourt but could get pretty tired over time and very vulnerable to foul trouble.

I believe a "best player" axiom may work for fans but not for a general manager. I'd be delighted if they could trade Lee and either Collins or Melo for Gortat, which would give the Suns something at each of two positions (although I expect the Suns could do better with another trade partner). But, most of all, I believe the Celtics can ill afford the backslide in chemistry development that could eventuate from trading away two rotation players fron the same position.

Sam


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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Outside on Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:44 pm

Sam,

I agree that what's important about a trade is whether it makes the team better, and I don't see how anyone could disagree with that. The only reason I brought up the "best player" concept was to say that I disagree with it as an absolute.

As for trading Bass and Sullinger for Gortat, I don't think it's as potentially harmful as you fear, for several reasons:

• First off, Bass and Sullinger currently play a total of 35.8 minutes per game, and Gortat currently plays 33.2, so the amount of post player minutes being traded would be fairly equal.

• In the current state of the NBA, traditional definitions of player positions aren't as meaningful as they once were. Once Bradley gets back, I can see the Celtics going with guard-heavy lineups like this for stretches:

Rondo
Bradley
Lee/Terry
Pierce/Green/KG
Gortat/KG

This is a versatile concept that go small with Pierce/Green with Gortat/KG or big with KG and Gortat. I'm really intrigued by that second option, both defensively with KG and Gortat sealing the middle and three quick guys harassing the perimeter, and offensively with KG in the more comfortable forward role and Gortat benefiting from Rondo screen/rolls and passes.

• Then there's the likely roster spot opening with Darko's departure, which the Celtics could fill with a power forward instead of a center.

You rightly point out the potential impact to team chemistry, but that disregards the opportunity to trade for a player who could be a key piece in keeping the Celtics competitive as KG and Pierce fade into the sunset. In this case, the GM would have to weigh the long-term benefits as well. Good centers are hard to come by, and Gortat is only 28 and entering the prime of his career. Whether to make the trade shouldn't be judged solely on the impact to this year's team.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Sam on Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:07 pm

Outside,

Bass currently plays 28.0 minutes per game, while Sullinger currently plays 17.8 minutes per game. That totals 45.8 minutes per game—not 35.8—or virtually the entire game (combined). If one were injured, the other could probably play more minutes than he has been (although obviously nothing close to a full game). I doubt that Gortat will be playing 46 minutes per game, since he's never averaged more than 33 and has played at least 30 MPG during only three seasons; and, if he's injured, he can't replace himself.

In the current state of the NBA, positions don't mean as much as in years ago partly because they've been supplanted by versatility. As Doc's using them, Bass and Sully present him with some versatility in that he's using Sully partially as a backup center, Bass partially as a participant in the transition game; and both of them are among the few offensive rebounders they've got—one of the major weaknesses of this team.

Gortat's got good skills, and I'd love to see him become a Celtic. But not at the expense of two players who play the same position at a high level of competence and who contribute far more minutes per game (combined), greater versatility (combined), more offensive rebounds (combined) and more of a hedge against injury (combined) than Gortat would.

Sorry, but I disagree about the importance of chemistry on this year's team (or any Celtics team, for that matter). It's extremely important because I believe they have a legitimate championship shot, and one of the mandates for this year's hopes involves improving chemistry over time. For the past two seasons, when the team has sputtered during the first half of the season, I've talked almost non-stop about the importance of improving chemistry and have urged people to, "See me in April." That stance has worked out pretty well, because chemistry can and has overcome a lot of ills.

As far as the future is concerned, anything can happen. Danny has proven at least twice (2007 and this season) that he can retool with practically a minimum of assets. For example, who knows what he might be able to accomplish by using KG's and/or Pierce's expiring contracts when the time comes? I'd rather focus on chemistry now rather than to allow preparations for the future to dilute some pretty good chances to compete for a championship this season.

Do you actually expect Doc to be playing Lee and Terry at SF and KG (with his five-five limitations) at both C and PF positions for considerable periods? It might add up mathematically but not logically.

If the Celtics had to trade two players at the same position, I'd prefer two quards, because they'd still have a pretty good three-guard rotation with Pierce also able to contribute at that position. But I'm basically opposed to trading two quality players at a single position.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by Outside on Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:46 pm

Welllll, I guess I can't add 28 plus 17. That may not prove that you're a statistical whiz, but it pretty much seals the deal that I'm not.

I accept that the trade would present chemistry issues to overcome for this year's team, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that it would be a death blow to this year's team, and as a GM, I'd be willing to accept that risk given the benefit to the team in future years. You prefer to enhance this year's team at the potential expense of the team in future years. We'd just take a different approach on this one.

Sam wrote:Do you actually expect Doc to be playing Lee and Terry at SF and KG (with his five-five limitations) at both C and PF positions for considerable periods? It might add up mathematically but not logically.
I didn't list specific time periods, but I was thinking along the lines of 5-8 minutes a game for that particular lineup, with another 5-10 with Gortat, Pierce or Green, and three of the guards. I'm a firm believer in change of pace disrupting an opponent's defense, and given the Celtics' frontcourt/backcourt imbalance, my intention was turn a potential negative (lack of bigs) into an advantage, especially once Bradley returns. No, I'm not saying that's the primary lineup they should use, but using a three-guard lineup for 12-15 minutes a game alleviates the need for minutes from the bigs and avoids overworking KG in particular. Given lemons, I merely proposed making lemonade that could be a defensive force and get out on the break.

You're also discounting the wild card regarding the roster spot that Darko leaving opens up. There are guys like Kenyon Martin and Craig Smith currently available who could fill the PF position for up to 20 minutes per game. Other guys may get waived closer to the trading deadline. I haven't been a Kenyon Martin fan, but I thought he did a nice job with the Clippers last year, and I've always liked Craig Smith. I think either guy would fit in nicely.

To clarify, I'm not suggesting that trading Bass and Sully for Gortat would be plan A. I too think that including a package like Lee and Sullinger would be preferable to Bass and Sullinger. I really like Bass and would be reluctant to see him go. But I do think that if Bass and Sullinger were the only available trade option, I would pull the trigger. I'm not expecting everyone to agree, but I do think there are valid arguments for it.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

Post by cowens/oldschool on Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:47 am

Sam

I would trade Sully and Bass in a heartbeat for Gortat, having KG and Gortat closing down the middle and Rondo and Bradley attacking the perimeter would give us potentially better defense than 08....that would be a sight to behold and as you just showed, we can still throw a changeup with a smallball lineup. KG is not gonna be here forever, Gortat would be a great piece in solving our rebounding woes.

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Re: Would you make a play for Marcin Gortat?

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