A season where wins are losses

By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com

The Boston Celtics are going to win on Friday.

Despite losing six straight and 11 of their last 12 overall, we can say this about the Celtics with great confidence. The folks in Vegas agree, pegging Boston as a 10-point favorite, which no team with a 23-52 record should seemingly ever be. But it won't surprise anyone considering the opponent.

The Philadelphia 76ers are going to lose on Friday.

That's what Philadelphia has done almost exclusively over the past two months. Since Evan Turner's buzzer-beater lifted the 76ers to 95-94 triumph in Boston on Jan. 29, Philadelphia has won just one game and it stopped the team from making history after losing 26 straight games (tying an NBA record). The 76ers are 1-28 since that win in Boston; Turner no longer plays for Philadelphia.

When the Celtics defeat the 76ers on Friday, the fans in Philadelphia will be more excited than those in Boston. Yep, transition years are brutal.

The Celtics are currently tied with the Utah Jazz for the fourth-worst record in basketball, so every victory is a bit counterproductive considering that it might diminish their potential for a high draft pick. With two of Boston's final seven games against these tanking 76ers, some have worried that Boston might elevate a bit too much (maybe even enough to leapfrog the rival Los Angeles Lakers in the final standings).

Yes, things were a lot more fun when we spent April lamenting how the Celtics were in cruise control while waiting for the playoffs rather than pondering the negative effects of winning.

Here's the part that makes it even worse: The Celtics deserve a win. Wednesday's lopsided loss in Washington notwithstanding, Boston has routinely been competitive despite its ugly record and has seen a number of close games slip away in the final moments recently. Since Celtics coaches and players don't subscribe to the idea of all-out tanking, they take those losses hard, yearning for progress over ping-pong balls.

And, if we're being honest, a win Friday won't do much good for Boston's psyche. It's one thing to top the playoff-bound Heat; it's another to beat a team that desires to be beaten. Sure, there's a value in young players performing well and tasting victory, but a win over Philadelphia comes with the sort of asterisk that diminishes the performance.

Someday, probably sooner than later, the league will safeguard against tanking by reworking the lottery system. Teams that put the season on cruise control by February's trade deadline won't necessarily improve their lottery odds by losing games. There has to be a way to incentivize winning for all 30 teams from season's start to end without fear of jeopardizing draft position.

For now, there's no other way to say it. Celtics fans are left in a no-win situation. There's virtually no result that is positive -- except maybe finding a way to lose to a team that loses better than any other. Otherwise, it's the usual quest for silver linings. Fans can take solace in the fact that a win will help Brad Stevens' racing mind, the one that won't stop replaying all those narrow losses that wake him up at night.

The past six seasons helped Boston fans forget what a drag navigating this sort of transition season is. A high draft pick is supposed to help ease those six months of tough-to-watch basketball and that's why some fans are lamenting the idea that a couple late-season wins could hinder that. After all, the higher the draft pick, the higher the probability of avoiding another loss-filled season moving forward.

Honestly, there's no good answer here. It's a rotten place to be for a fan. Boston got spoiled a bit during the Big Three era and no matter how ready most fans said they were for the transition process, it has not been easy to endure. Just remember that, unless you're a summer league junkie, there will be no Boston basketball to feast on for six months after the regular season ends on April 16, so maybe just maybe try to savor the last seven games.

But good luck trying to find anything to root for. 

112288

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Not even the lottery.



KJ

A meaningless win in April or a chance to increase your odds of moving up the draft? I don't get it why not take advantage of the rules that are in place? I understand we may end up with Sam Bowie as opposed to Michael Jordan but I'm more than willing to take that chance.

Mike D

That is what I have been saying all along.  We are not in the business of trying to be a martyr. 

We need to stop trying to be "Politically Correct" or a "Do Gooder" by going all out by getting a 7 game winning streak under our belt because it is the right thing to do. 

I am not looking for any friends with the stance I am taking. As Gordon Gekko once said............. If you need a friend, get a dog.

I'm playing by the rules set up by the NBA and we are in a position to get a top 3 player in this years college draft if we continue on our course. You do not get that chance often unless you are a sucky organization like Sac Kings.............................

It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.............Gordon Gekko.

112288

112288 wrote:Mike D

That is what I have been saying all along.  We are not in the business of trying to be a martyr. 

We need to stop trying to be "Politically Correct" or a "Do Gooder" by going all out by getting a 7 game winning streak under our belt because it is the right thing to do. 

I am not looking for any friends with the stance I am taking. As Gordon Gekko once said............. If you need a friend, get a dog.

I'm playing by the rules set up by the NBA and we are in a position to get a top 3 player in this years college draft if we continue on our course. You do not get that chance often unless you are a sucky organization like Sac Kings.............................

It's all about bucks, kid. The rest is conversation.............Gordon Gekko.

112288

112288,


Gordon Gecko, played by Michael Douglas, stole that line from Harry Truman who said "If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog".  Truman wasn't saying it to mean "be cold and ruthless", he was saying that you couldn't trust anybody in Washington because they're not really your friend.


As long as we quoting Gordon Gecko, here are some more from a character named after a reptile and who, in the movie, went to jail:

Lunch? Aw, you gotta be kidding. Lunch is for wimps. (I'm going on my "wimp break" in about 10 minutes)

When I get a hold of the son of a bitch who leaked this, I'm gonna tear his eyeballs out and I'm gonna suck his fucking skull.




The public's out there throwing darts at a board, sport. I don't throw darts at a board – I bet on sure things. (CLEARLY, he wasn't talking about the NBA draft).


bob


.

Bob,

But in the context of what Gekko was stressing it did mean being ruthless.


Kid, you're on a roll. Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does..............Lou Mannheim

LOL

112288

The Celtics should play to win every game. Otherwise, what's the point in "competing" if you aren't willing to compete.



KJ

Compete for what??????????

Finishing 22 or 23 verses 26 with virtually no shot at landing a top 3 player??????????????

And let me repeat........a winning attitude begins the first week in September when training camp opens!

Out of 15 roster spots currently filled..............at least 6-8 spots will be filled with new personnel.  Let me put it another way 40% - 50% of your team will be new players from the draft or other teams. This year will just be a distant memory as a new team is assembled!

112288

This team was expected by virtually everyone to lose more than they would win.  That's exactly what they've done.  And the die was cast relatively early in the season.  That being the case, they had every reason to mail it in every night.  Just make it look good enough...maybe throw in a ration of false hustle...concentrate on not getting hurt.

But there were in almost every game.  As far as I could see, they were trying really hard—especially the young players.  Maybe they just plain ran out of steam in the Washington game.  We'll see.  But, as things stand right now, I couldn't be prouder of this team for leaving it all out on the floor.  They have shown me the one thing I admire most in basketball and in life.  They have shown me integrity.

We all have many moments in life when we could gain an advantage simply by compromising our integrity.  From something as complex as insider trading to something as simple as kicking someone when he's down, what does it really matter?  It's all business, or it's how the cookie crumbles, or it's some other rationalization.  I consider myself most fortunate that the team with which I grew up seemed to respect the integrity of the game.

Speaking only for myself, I would be ashamed beyond repair if I supported, for one instant, the idea of my team exercising other than a high degree of integrity.

But that's just me. 

Sam

112288 wrote:Compete for what??????????

Finishing 22 or 23 verses 26 with virtually no shot at landing a top 3 player??????????????

And let me repeat........a winning attitude begins the first week in September when training camp opens!

Out of 15 roster spots currently filled..............at least 6-8 spots will be filled with new personnel.  Let me put it another way 40% - 50% of your team will be new players from the draft or other teams. This year will just be a distant memory as a new team is assembled!

112288

What part of "lottery" is being misunderstood here? Draft position is not predetermined and Boston should not be banking its hopes and dreams on an unproven prospect.

They need to play hard for their own self-respect and to reiterate, why play if you aren't trying to win?

The entire point of having a championship at the end of the year is for a team to be the winners. The entire point of players growing up loving the game and hoping to play in the pros is to not only play this game, but to win. No one just starts playing basketball or matriculates through the various levels to just be losers that don't play with the intentions to win every game.



KJ

Like tonight!

Tonight was a gift!

112288

KJ

On draft choices...........I'd rather hang my hopes on a high draft pick then hanging my hopes on a veteran who cannot cut it as a player executing what is asked of him to do.

I am not rooting against any Celtic to fail personally I just wish the other team is a little bit better....like one point better at the end for my selfish reasons about getting a potential top 3 pick. I look and root for individual growth and success with players who are marked to be here for a long time: Rondo, Bradley, Kelly O., Sully...........and outside shots like Presey, Babb and Johnson.

As far as winning............you have to have the players to begin to have a chance to win..................the Celtics have 6 players that can play. That is it , and and you are missing key players in key positions like starting center and a great all around small forward (It ain't Green), and a great 6th man just for starters!

Everyone in the league including Celtic players and fans knew that the Celtics were rebuilding this year........and were not going to be very good........Ok how about Suck!........Hey just ask Wallace why he did not want to come to Boston! Anything else is pure fantasy on one's part.

So much was going against the Celtics this year:

1) A 1st year rookie coach that is just learning the NBA;
2)  In the process of vetting all their playing personnel  to determine who MAY OR MAY NOT FIT in the long term structuring of the team;
3) Ridding players to gain more salary cap for the future;
4) They have just 1 super star....Rondo.....that's it. You need 3 or more to put yourself in a discussion about getting to round 3 or 4 in the playoffs.

As far as players go..........the younger players Sully, Johnson, Kelly O., Babb, Presey, Vidor are more worried about learning and executing skills being taught to them on an NBA level and I am sure they have been told not to worry about failing.........just keep working on it in game time situations  until you perfect what we are teaching you and not the score.

That my friend is what the Celtics are more concerned about......execution by first and second year guys...........like Kelly O.  Night and day since he played his first game..........they knew he would fail before he can succeed as a player. Same with Sully and his hoisting 3 pters.........just keep shooting and gain confidence and don't worry about the failing.

112288

This team is failing forward, learning with each loss. No shame in playing as well as you can and losing.

High draft picks seem more enticing because they haven't turned into disappointments yet. They are shiny representations of potential, and since they haven't played a minute in the NBA, people see them as if they had fully reached that perceived potential.

Just think how great Jeff Green was, the unlimited potential he represented, when he was the 5th pick in 2007. Now most people here can't kick him out the door soon enough.

....he needs to go, we had a real chance with Perk and KG that year 11, shots to compete for a title are very rare. fockin terrible trade, Jeff Green is soft, can't stand watching him play. I'm watching the Nets!!!

In that case...

Players should do the following:

1. Stop showing up to practice.

2. Don't bother showing up at the arena for home games, and don't get on the bus for road games.

3. If they do show up, intentionally miss every shot.



KJ

Works for me, perfect way to end a miserable season with a payoff at the end. Clean the blackboard, bring in bright new students and let Brad teach them how to play the game.

Everyone is down on Jeff Green because he is not executing consistently, and the reason he is not executing consistantely is because he is being asked to be the first option in the offensive attack verses what he was in OKC a second or third option where he thrived!

But bluntly, he is being asked to do a job that does not fit his basketball talent. Just ask Tommy Heinsohn...............if you were listening to the broadcast last night which I am sure you did not, you would know that he and Mike Gorman spoke on that very issue and reached the conclusion I just summarized.

112288

This goes out to all who think:

The draft is bull shxt and that the odds are so great against landing a great player, so why not win for the sake of the Gipper and hey Look Good and feel great about our team (20 something and 50 something...ya right!) by finishing up with a winning streak that will cause us to greatly decrease our odds in the ping pong ball game of landing one of the top 3 picks and potential major talent........................sooooooo

Don't get on THE GAME ON THREAD OR WHATEVER TREAD IS CREATED FOR DRAFT NIGHT and be TWO FACED by puffing out your chests and proclaiming Danny a genus, and the player selected the next coming of Larry legend or Bill Russell. 'Cause odds are you would never have selected that player had it not been for the extended losing streak we are currently going through that caused us to increase our chances (odds) in the ping pong game of landing a major talent!


Cannot have your cake and eat it too my friends!

112288

112288 wrote:This goes out to all who think:

The draft is bull shxt and that the odds are so great against landing a great player, so why not win for the sake of the Gipper and hey Look Good and feel great about our team (20 something and 50 something...ya right!) by finishing up with a winning streak that will cause us to greatly decrease our odds in the ping pong ball game of landing one of the top 3 picks and potential major talent........................sooooooo

Don't get on THE GAME ON THREAD OR WHATEVER TREAD IS CREATED FOR DRAFT NIGHT and be TWO FACED by puffing out your chests and proclaiming Danny a genus, and the player selected the next coming of Larry legend or Bill Russell. 'Cause odds are you would never have selected that player had it not been for the extended losing streak we are currently going through that caused us to increase our chances (odds) in the ping pong game of landing a major talent!


Cannot have your cake and eat it too my friends!

112288

Can't imagine anyone on this board has spoken of this draft derisively.

There is a very distinct difference between attempting to insult the draft and evaluating likely future secnarios.

No one knows where the Celtics will end up in the draft, so everything leading up to the determination of draft position is mere speculation. Sure, it's fine to lay out various scenarios "if" something were to happen. But to suggest anything specific "will" happen or to get hopes up for one of those "ifs" to happen does not make sense.



KJ

KJ,

Quite to the contrary .............those who feel as I do are mocked by those on the board that say the draft is a crap shoot and that those who support losing for the remaining games are at best a heretic according to the gospel of Celtic tradition!

What I say to that is BULL CRAP!

The only insult recorded here my friend is the sever insult suffered by your brain by not clearly seeing the obvious.  Any position less then 30th in the league, the odds of picking in the top 3 go down quite dramatically.

Let me put it another way for you sir:


The Law of Probability
  
The laws of probability can be used in games, business, and daily life.
Probability measures the likelihood of an event occurring. Expressed mathematically, probability equals the number of ways a specified event can occur, divided by the total number of all possible event occurrences.

GOT IT....GET IT.......GOOD!


112288

112288 wrote:KJ,

Quite to the contrary .............those who feel as I do are mocked by those on the board that say the draft is a crap shoot and that those who support losing for the remaining games are at best a heretic according to the gospel of Celtic tradition!

What I say to that is BULL CRAP!

The only insult recorded here my friend is the sever insult suffered by your brain by not clearly seeing the obvious.  Any position less then 30th in the league, the odds of picking in the top 3 go down quite dramatically.

Let me put it another way for you sir:


The Law of Probability
  
The laws of probability can be used in games, business, and daily life.
Probability measures the likelihood of an event occurring. Expressed mathematically, probability equals the number of ways a specified event can occur, divided by the total number of all possible event occurrences.

GOT IT....GET IT.......GOOD!


112288

I am fully aware of how the Law of probability works and how it pertains to the NBA Draft Lottery. In fact, I have referenced  the implications of draft position in relation to team record before. Guess you missed that.

There is no need for you to attempt to talk down to me because I disagree with your rather short-sighted notion of placing such enormous emphasis on draft position. There is a very good chance the Celtics fall from the top 3. Then what? What's the backup plan if all that matters to the Celtics is draft position? Do you not understand how ridiculous of a strategy that is? Haven't you ever heard of the dangers of placing all of your eggs in one basket?

The year the Bulls drafted Rose, they ended up with the 1st pick despite having the 8th worst record. Their calculated chances of the top pick were 1.7%. The Supersonics had the 2nd worst record and picked 4th.

The fact of the matter is, the draft essentially is a crapshoot. Sometimes the phenoms are actual phenoms. And some "phenoms" turn out to be busts. Some underrated players in the draft actually become impact players for their respective teams. Even when it comes to solid scouting, there are absolutely ZERO guarantees.



KJ

It's all about increasing the odds, not making predictions.

I am speaking to a portion of a post that no longer exists.  At least I can't find it within all the rhetoric on this thread.  I suspect it was deleted by its owner when he realized how much he was insulting some true Celtics fans—including me—by callously stating (and I'm paraphrasing) that those who root for the Celtics to win every game shouldn't even get on our Draft Thread to root for the draft performance of the Celtics and to express the merits and demerits of their picks—because we can't have it both ways.

If I somehow misinterpreted the message, it doesn't matter a bit because perception is in the eye of the beholder, and that ways in which people interpret a message can't be legislated by the sender of the message.  It was my perception that I was among others whose allegiance to the Celtics was inappropriately called into question.

The fact is that (a) rooting for the Celtics to win games even now and (b) rooting for the Celtics to make a good draft pick at draft time are most decidedly NOT in opposition to one another.  And there's absolutely no reason for an assertion that persons in the "a" category should not even deign to become members of the "b" category.

I'm openly in the "a" category, and I stand by it, while recognizing the rights of others to feel differently.  I also intend to be in the "b" category, as I have every intention of participating and commenting freely in the draft thread.

I can't imagine myself (as an administrator or as an individual) doing anything but welcoming one and all to that Draft Thread when it appears on draft day.  Just in case there's any misunderstanding, I heartily hope everyone on the board (and visitors as well) will see fit to join that thread.  By that time, the order of selection will have been determined (pending trades), and I hope the discussions will be interesting and convivial.

Go Celtics!

Sam

112288 wrote:This goes out to all who think:

The draft is bull shxt and that the odds are so great against landing a great player, so why not win for the sake of the Gipper and hey Look Good and feel great about our team (20 something and 50 something...ya right!) by finishing up with a winning streak that will cause us to greatly decrease our odds in the ping pong ball game of landing one of the top 3 picks and potential major talent........................sooooooo

Don't get on THE GAME ON THREAD OR WHATEVER TREAD IS CREATED FOR DRAFT NIGHT and be TWO FACED by puffing out your chests and proclaiming Danny a genus, and the player selected the next coming of Larry legend or Bill Russell. 'Cause odds are you would never have selected that player had it not been for the extended losing streak we are currently going through that caused us to increase our chances (odds) in the ping pong game of landing a major talent!


Cannot have your cake and eat it too my friends!

112288

is this what your looking for Sam? I agree with 112288 that I have already wrote off this season and want the best probability situation to get the best pick possible.