Celtics Forecast: Who's Staying, Who's Going?

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/04/17/celtics-contracts-going-forward/F8eeQrRGCQdj5iwKAMww0N/story.html



Celtics forecast: Who’s staying, going?

By Baxter Holmes  | GLOBE STAFF   APRIL 18, 2014



The Celtics are entering an offseason that could feature “fireworks,” as co-owner Wyc Grousbeck has said, so it’s hard to say what the team will look like next season.

It’s important to note that no player is untradeable if the offer is right, and that a considerable amount of the Celtics’ decision-making process will depend on where they fall in the May 20 draft lottery.

The team has about a 33.7 percent chance at a top-three pick and a 10.4 percent shot at landing the No. 1 pick in the June 26 draft.

Another fact worth considering: Only Rajon Rondo, Gerald Wallace, Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani, Kelly Olynyk, and Jared Sullinger are on guaranteed contracts for next season.

Jerryd Bayless, Kris Humphries, and Avery Bradley will become free agents, though Bradley will be restricted, meaning the Celtics can match any offer he receives.

Joel Anthony

The veteran center, who played sparingly this season, exercised his $3.8 million option for next season, a league source confirmed to the Globe. The Celtics, however, could add his deal to a trade this offseason.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Unlikely.

Chris Babb

Babb has a nonguaranteed deal for next season that will pay him $816,482.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Unlikely.

Brandon Bass

Bass will be entering the final year of a three-year deal that will pay him $6.9 million next season. He’s considered an attractive piece to other teams that are interested in an expiring contract and could also provide a boost in the middle.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Unlikely.

Jerryd Bayless

He’ll be an unrestricted free agent after making $3.1 million this season. The guard has bounced around — the Celtics were his fifth team in the last six seasons — and has said he would like to stay in Boston. For that to happen, he might have to accept a pay cut.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Keith Bogans

To help facilitate the blockbuster deal with the Nets last summer, Bogans was paid $5.1 million — and he received it while staying home after being excused from the team in January. The Celtics are likely to package his contract in a trade to a team that is looking to cut salary.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Unlikely.

Avery Bradley

He’ll be a restricted free agent. He’s injury-prone, having missed 54 games the past two seasons, which could drive down his price tag in the open market.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Vitor Faverani

The only true center on the roster will make $2.1 million next season. He’s raw and his progress was hindered by a knee injury that ended his rookie year early.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Jeff Green

He has two seasons left on a deal that will pay him $9.2 million next season, and though he’s frustratingly inconsistent, Green could be a nice complementary player if the right pieces are around him.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely

Kris Humphries

He’s an unrestricted free agent after making $12 million this season, the richest salary for any Celtic. If the hard-working forward wants to stick around, he’ll have to take a pay cut.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.


Chris Johnson

The blue-collar guard has a nonguaranteed deal for $915,243 next season, but the Celtics love his hustle and work ethic, so they might make room for him.
Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Kelly Olynyk

The team’s first-round draft pick from 2013 will make $2.1 million next season. He made great strides in the second half of his rookie season and is already one of the top players from the 2013 draft.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Phil Pressey

The point guard has a nonguaranteed deal that will pay him about $816,000 if he’s not waived on or before July 15. Though undersized, he has made an impact as a backup to Rondo.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Rajon Rondo

The four-time All-Star point guard is entering the final year of a deal that will pay him $12.9 million next season. The Celtics could deal him this summer, but their asking price would no doubt be steep, as it always has been. Rondo is interested in becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2015, when he could receive a big payday.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Jared Sullinger

The 2012 first-round pick will enter the third year of his rookie deal and be paid $1.4 million next season, a bargain considering how he has blossomed into one of the better low-post players in the league. Sullinger could be an All-Star in the near future, maybe in 2014-15.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.

Gerald Wallace

The veteran swingman has two years left on a deal that will pay him $10.1 million next season, and it will be hard for another team to take on a contract of that magnitude.

Will he be a Celtic next season? Likely.



bob
MY NOTE:  First off, I think he was making one of the biggest understatements I've ever heard when he said it was "unlikely" that Keith Bogans would be back.  How about "Over Danny Ainge's dead body"?  After that 6'5" appendix, he has 3 other Celtics listed as 'unlikely':  Joel Anthony (who will exercise his player option and will be with us, but Baxter Holmes is assuming that he'll be traded), Chris Babb (I like him, but he's hardly indispensable) and Brandon Bass (big piece gone).  The sum total of their salaries is $11.67M.  This does not include Bogan's unguaranteed $5M/year, but who would take him when that would mean another 2 years of him at $5M?  We also have a $10.3M trade exception from the Brooklyn trade which expires 7/12.  What kind of impact player can we get for $11.67M (who is not a PF)?  If we throw some or all of the trade exception in we could get a max player, but what team will absorb 3 players?  In short, if everybody is as likely to come back as Holmes is saying, he just made Danny's job a lot harder and, the players he's saying are likely to be traded are only marginally attractive, other than Bass.  I'm thinking that it's more likely that Danny is locked and loaded, will be weapons-free and ready to fully rock as soon as things start to become clear (i.e. the pingpong balls are drawn and we know exactly where we'll pick and all underclassmen are declared one way or another).  I think the 'unlikely' list is longer than he does, we just don't know how much longer and who.  I don't think Danny has any doubt he can surround franchise players with supporting players, like he did after KG and Allen came on board.  He'll move whomever he has to to get those franchise players first and then worry about the rest of the roster.  He wants 3 All-Stars, if not next year then within a few years, and it is unlikely any of the players we have on the roster now besides Rondo will be all-stars by then.




.

There will be major changes. Players part of the "core" will be moved.



KJ

This and a similar article by Forsberg can't take trades into account, which makes them largely worthless. They don't call him Trader Danny for nothing.