What's Plan C (If The Celtics Lose The Lottery And Can't Make A Big Trade)?

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What's Plan C (If The Celtics Lose The Lottery And Can't Make A Big Trade)? Empty What's Plan C (If The Celtics Lose The Lottery And Can't Make A Big Trade)?

Post by bobheckler Mon Apr 21, 2014 12:11 pm

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/4/21/5635622/what-is-plan-c-if-the-celtics-lose-the-lottery-and-cant-make-a-big


What is plan C? (If the Celtics lose the lottery and can't make a big trade)
By Jeff Clark  @celticsblog on Apr 21 2014, 9:06a 18



What's Plan C (If The Celtics Lose The Lottery And Can't Make A Big Trade)? 20130705_kdl_bt1_002.0_standard_709.0
USA TODAY Sports
Every offseason has options. This one more than others.



My original working title for this article was "What's the worst that could happen?"  Then I realized that the absolute worst thing would be for someone to get hurt and/or to trade for someone who then got hurt, leaving us stuck with an albatross contract.  In fact, if you are in a particularly morose mood, I'm sure you could concoct any number of doomsday scenarios that would top mine.

But at the present, the Celtics are in a very good position looking forward.  There are options and windows of opportunity to get better.  It may be a quick turnaround or it may be a longer one, but the pieces appear to be in place.  Now it is up to luck and Danny Ainge's negotiating skill to make it happen.

The first event that has to happen is obviously the NBA Draft Lottery.  Everything is on hold until we find out what that has in store for us.  Winning the lottery and getting one of the top 3 picks would give us a major asset.  As Ainge has said, it might not be a franchise altering guy, but he'll likely be very, very good.  Regardless of what we do with that pick, winning the Lottery would be the best thing for the team on that day, so we'll call that "Plan A."

Of course there's nothing more we can do about that.  It is now left completely up to chance.  If we win, great, if not, then we have to move onto Plan B.  Based on the comments from Wyc, Danny, and just about anyone else in the organization, it sounds like the Celtics would love to make a big trade or two this offseason.  Call it "fireworks" or call it the 2007 plan.  If the Celtics don't win the Lottery (or perhaps even if they do), I think they'd very much like to acquire a star player or two to put around Rondo and whomever else is left over.

The trick is, that's not easy.  Not at all.  Ainge seems excited for this offseason and he's even said something along the lines of "laying groundwork" for deals.  But nothing is for certain and any number of things can derail a plan along the way.

Celtics working for another quick turnaround - Sports - The Boston Globe

"Listen, I’m grateful we were able to do that deal," he said, "but that deal was unique in so many ways. In one way [we were] getting quality players that still had a lot left in the tank in Ray and KG — as they’ve proven — [along with] keeping Paul. But the fact [is] that they complemented each other so well. Their games, they all needed each other. You had Ray, who was a catch-and-shoot guy. You had Paul, who was sort of a go-to guy. You had KG, who was defense, rebound, unselfish, the consummate team guy. The pieces fit so perfectly. That’s a big part of it, too. It’s not just talent."
We sometimes fail to appreciate just how rare that 2007 summer was.  It is not easy to duplicate something that special.  In fact, Kevin Garnett was pretty close to being a Laker if my memory serves.  What an odd, horrible alternative universe that would have been.

So what happens if lottery luck fails us and no big deals materialize?  What's Plan C?

It sounds like Ainge and company will do what they can to be patient and wait for the right deal to come along.  That could mean another year wallowing in lottery land and tank-watch lists.  Running it back with the current core group plus a couple of rookies probably isn't going to be a contending team.

We would have a fully healthy Rajon Rondo with a full training camp under Brad Stevens (more on that in a minute).  Sullinger and Olynyk would be a year older and more experienced.  Assuming Avery Bradley returned, he would be another on-the-court asset.  Jeff Green could be back doing Jeff Green things.  The rookies could be brought up to speed pretty quickly and contribute at least to the bench unit, if not starting by the end of the year.  In the Eastern Conference, that team could very well make the playoffs.

Of course the 800 lb. gorilla in the room is Rajon Rondo's contract year.  Is he going to be content waiting another season for Danny's plan to work out?  Is going to be able to handle a year of rookie mistakes, losing, and daily rumors and questions about his long term plans from the media?

And what about Danny Ainge?  If he can't land a big fish this year, would he start putting out feelers to see what he could land in terms of assets for his own marlin?  Without assurances that Rondo will re-sign, Danny could trade him for even more draft picks and talented young players and our rebuilding plan would stretch out another year or two (at least).  The Presti-plan would go into effect and it would all hinge on Danny's skills as a drafter and trader.  (Note: Even if we win the lottery, the option to trade Rondo might still be on the table if the pick can't help in his first year or two)

You have to think as well that there are other options in between the extremes I've laid out.  Maybe Ainge can't find a home run deal, but can use some assets to land a solid contributor like Omer Asik (the rim protector Stevens wants/needs).  We could still make another smaller move and bring in a lower level free agent and be more competitive next year without giving up all of our trade chip assets.  In fact, the more I think about it, the more I believe this is the most likely outcome.

Next season would be entertaining and a step in the right direction and 2015 would become the 3rd consecutive HUGE offseason for this franchise.  Rondo would be left with a choice: Stay with the only team and city he's ever known as a professional and buy into the progress being made.  Or jump the fence to another situation where the grass may or may not be a darker shade of green.

Of course I'd rather get back to being a title contender right now, but lightning has this thing about rarely striking in the same place twice.  There are many forks left in the road ahead and the best route to the destination has yet to be fully mapped out.  It is going to be a very interesting summer, no matter what happens.



bob
MY NOTE:  So, Plan C is "just play hard"?  That's not a plan, that's an expectation.  How's this for Plan C:  Brad Stevens tells everybody (everybody!) that he wants the ball over halfcourt with at least 19-20 seconds left on the shot clock.  That means everybody runs (everybody!  All the time!) and is always looking up court to pass the ball over half court as quickly as possible.  Those who do, play.  Those who don't, sit.  My thought, though, is that something will definitely change if for no other reason that Danny will not just let the $10.3M trade exception expire without getting something for it.  I don't know if you can trade that for draft picks only, but we'll get some kind of asset for it and you should be able to get something of value for $10.3M worth of salary cap relief.  

Here are the teams that will be over the salary cap next year, and therefore be attracted to the exception, and their projected salaries (per Hoopshype, rounded to nearest million).  This does not include the addition salary impact of first round picks:

Brooklyn - $90M (no draft picks left, we own them all (heheheh), but some players)
Chicago - $64M
Denver - $65M
GSW - $65M
Houston  - $72M
Indiana - $66M (if they implode in the playoffs Larry might be motivated to shake things up)
LAC - $74M
Memphis - $64M
Miami - $69M (their big 3 consume $61M of it.  Damn!  All in "player options" next year)
Minny - $66M
NYK - $91M
OKC - $68M
Sacto - $66M

So, 13 potential trading partners for Danny, out of 30, for the trade exception.



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Post by Sam Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:13 pm

I'm getting sick of stockpiling draft picks instead of horse flesh.  Because most non-lottery draft picks need a while to mature, I view the majority of draft picks as primarily useful in sweetening trade deals.  If the Celts can't swing an impact deal this summer with all the assets they have, I'm not going to be big fan of making more trades to acquire yet additional draft picks.  Yes, the idea of shedding deadwood salary is appealing, but mostly useful in acquiring free agents.  And I'm no particular fan of free agents either; they're too often over-priced damaged goods.

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Post by bobheckler Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:49 pm

sam wrote:I'm getting sick of stockpiling draft picks instead of horse flesh.  Because most non-lottery draft picks need a while to mature, I view the majority of draft picks as primarily useful in sweetening trade deals.  If the Celts can't swing an impact deal this summer with all the assets they have, I'm not going to be big fan of making more trades to acquire yet additional draft picks.  Yes, the idea of shedding deadwood salary is appealing, but mostly useful in acquiring free agents.  And I'm no particular fan of free agents either; they're too often over-priced damaged goods.

Sam


Sam,

I'm wasn't suggesting that we trade the trade exception for draft picks, I was saying that I don't know if that can even be done but if it can be done then we'll at least end up with something for the $10.3M. I don't want more draft picks either UNLESS they're Brooklyn's for 2017 or if Philly will unprotect the one we got from Miami for Joel Anthony.

Yeah, we need franchise players. We need a player that will take us up a notch or two. I'm expecting us to get up to the 32-35 win range next year, just from organic growth and improvement. If we can get a player that is worth a playoff series (i.e. if you are in the playoffs, their contributions will be so impactful they will help you win games that will get you to the next round), then we're halfway home because the difference between 35 wins and the 38 wins #8 Atlanta has this year isn't much. We could make the playoffs next year even with marginal upgrades just because we will be better all-round. Get us a rim protector, like unrestricted free agent Gortat or Asik (or both!?) and we're in the playoffs. Add a Kevin Love or some other big impact player too and we're a year's worth of chemistry away from the 2nd round. Rondo + another all-star and a rim protector puts us back in the hunt.


bob


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Post by k_j_88 Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:49 pm

I always imagined this year's draft to be one of the smaller cogs in the overall machine.

Ainge would be foolish to "expect" the C's to get any particular pick, but I suspect that he wouldn't ever base all of his planning on the draft. The Celtics have a great chance of pulling a big trade because Ainge has plenty of assets. And if the big trade isn't this year, then it could possibly be next year. There is no one-year plan in the works.



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Post by bobheckler Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:11 pm

Here are the Celtics first round picks since Danny has been here and their pick #s. He also bought the draft rights to various players without drafting them directly. Rondo was selected by Phoenix #20. He also traded for 2nd rounders Leon Powe and Big Baby.


2013 - Kelly Olynyk, 13
2012 - Sully, 21 and Melo, 22
2011 - Marshon Brooks, 25, Never Played for the Celtics
2010 - Avery Bradley, 19
2009 - None
2008 - JR Giddens, 30
2007 - None (was #5, Jeff Green, sent to Seattle for Ray Allen)
2006 - Randy Foye, 7, Never Played for the Celtics
2005 - Gerald Green, 18
2004 - Tony Allen, 25
2003 - Al Jefferson, 15 and Delonte West, 24

So, Of the 3 lottery picks Danny has had (Kelly, Jeff Green and Foye) only one of them played for the Celtics (Jeff Green came back through a trade, like any other player could have, and not from the draft).  Of the 5 non-lottery mid-first round picks (#15-22), most of them played for us (Melo didn't) and of the remainding players they all played for us although JR Giddens didn't play much.

The idea is to get some kind of idea if there's a method to Danny's madness.  Does he see mid-round players as ones you keep because they're cheap and they can be good role players and perhaps more (West, Tony Allen, Bradley and Sully have all been "good role players) at least) but he trades away the higher ones for veteran impact players like Ray Allen?

Hmmm.



bob


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Post by dboss Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:23 pm

This draft is very important.

If we fall to 8th we could still make that pick depending on who is on the board.

It is just as likely that we will keep the pick as it is that the pick will be traded.  Danny has traded first rounders in the past so I'm sure none of us would be surprised if that happened.

We should be able to a get a rim protector in a trade (Asik) but there are no go to guys that we would likely get in a trade.

The Celtics could trade 4 or 5 1st rounders and still have 4 or 5 1st rounders.  We have trade exceptions to use and expiring contracts coming off the books.

So if we fall in the draft again there really is no need to jump off a cliff.  The Celtics have more options to explore.

At least all of us are leery of the prospect for moving up in the draft.  DA could also trade his way up to the top.  There are a lot of options.

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Post by dboss Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:38 pm

2006 and 2007 were interesting years.  in 06 we traded the 7th pick for bums and left Rudy Gay on the board.  In 07 we traded the 5th pick and left Noah on the board.

07 yielded Ray Allen and later KG but DA flat out blew the 06 draft but managed to purchase Rondo

Can't help but wonder how things would have gone if we had drafted both Gay and Rondo in 06 and Noah in 07.  That would have been a pretty good team considering PP was still young and Al Jefferson and Perkins were already in place.

I know we became a contender but there have been times when I would have liked to see the team continue to rebuild through the draft because we were getting some outstanding talent.

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Post by worcester Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:34 pm

dboss - I was calling for Danny to draft Noah for months before that draft, and even though he didn't, I'm still amazed by how many good picks Danny has made over the years. Look at that list. SO many good players - 8 of 11 are still in the league. Nine if Delonte is still playing. I'd match that against any other GM in the league.

I'll be even more amazed if Danny flubs this draft.
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Post by Sam Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:26 am

BobH,

I wasn't talking specifically about the trade exception; in fact, I didn't even mention it.  I was speaking more generally about the wisdom (or lack thereof) of focusing on acquiring more draft picks in lieu of more players.  Regarding your question, it's my understanding that one of the reasons underlying the trade exception is to facilitate trading picks for players (up to the level of the total surplus of salaries traded away in the original trade).  As for your question, it's my impression that one of the reasons underlying trade exceptions is to facilitate trading picks for players—up to the level of the total salary overage of players traded away in the original deal(s).  But I'm certainly not an expert in NBA finances.

Sam


Last edited by sam on Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:32 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by kdp59 Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:09 am

we all know "plan C" is pick the BPA in the draft, keep aquiring future assets and keep trying to move older contracts.

migth not be what any of us want, but thats the onlny other option Ainge would have.
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