Wanted: Easy Buckets

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Wanted:  Easy Buckets Empty Wanted: Easy Buckets

Post by bobheckler Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:06 am

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/4/21/5637556/boston-celtics-offense-struggles-easy-buckets-free-throws-restricted-twos-corner-threes


During Game 1 of Nets-Raptors, they mentioned that Toronto was one of four playoff teams that ranked in the top-ten in offensive and defensive efficiency according to John Hollinger's statistical formula.  That puts them in rare company with the Thunder, Spurs, and Clippers.  Maybe I'm just being a homer, but on paper, I think the Celtics as currently constructed are just as good as they are.

Wrong.  The Celtics ranked 20th in defense (meh, not bad for a rebuilding team) and even worse 27th in offense (ugh).

With a Choose-Your-Own-Adventuresque series of decisions that Danny Ainge must make over the next five months that includes two first round draft picks and a handful of decisions on free agents, he has to start thinking about which guys make this team better.  Who is a role player?  Who can you build around?  Who is part of this franchise long term?

Defensively, Ainge has been pretty honest about the lack of a rim protector in the front court.  As well as he played at the end of the season, Kelly Olynyk isn't the answer at the 5 and we didn't see enough of Vitor Faverani to know if he can anchor the defense.  That's certainly a need that Danny will look to fill on D, but offensively, there's much more to consider.

Basketball can seem so simple at times.  All you gotta to do is put the ball in the hoop, right?  The closer you are, the easier it is to do that.  But wait.  Bigger and taller guys tend to be slower and three-point shots are worth more than dunks and lay-ups.  It also depends on where you shoot those threes.  There's also free throws.  Now how do you get those?  They're not exactly free.  This is where it gets complicated.

Let's look at how the most offensively efficient teams get there "easy buckets."  Eight of the top ten are in the playoffs and here's how they stand in restricted area field goals made, free throws made, and corner threes (the most efficient of the three point shots):

TEAM---------------------OFF EFF-----RAFM-----FTM-------CTM------TOTAL POINTS
Los Angeles Clippers-------109.4--------17.2------21.2-------3---------64.6
Miami Heat-----------------109----------18.6------17.5-------3.6-------65.5
Dallas Mavericks-----------109----------18.6------16.8-------2---------53.8
Houston Rockets-----------108.6--------20 -------22.1-------2.5-------69.6
Portland Trailblazers--------108.3-------14.9------19.1-------2.5-------56.4
San Antonio Spurs----------108.2--------17.5------15.7-------2.7-------58.8
Oklahoma City Thunder-----108.1-------16.4-------20.2-------2--------59
Toronto Raptors------------105.8-------13.7-------19.6-------2.5-------54.5
Boston Celtics--------------99.7--------14.9-------16.2-------2.1-------52.3

At first blush, it's surprising to see the Celtics compete in that Raptors/Blazers/Mavericks range.  They roughly pace at the same rate, but unfortunately, Boston's deficiencies in the mid-range, long 2's, and 3's above the break lowers their true shooting percentage to 28th in the league.  We're being kind though.  Check out the Clips, Heat, and Rockets.  For teams that average above triple-digits, more than 60% of their scoring comes from "easy buckets."  We're talking about a points differential in the teens compared to the Celtics.  Losing 3-and-D man Courtney Lee and Gerald Wallace crashing towards the rim didn't help, but those guys weren't exactly going to turn the season around.

A lot of fans lamented some of the shot selection this season.  Jeff Green shot a career high 4.8 threes a game at 34%.  Sullinger shot 2.8 at an even worse 26.9% clip.  We saw Rajon Rondo extending his range and taking more jump shots.  Kelly Olynyk, who seem paint-averse early in the season, put the ball on the floor more in the second half and shot more free throws in two weeks of April than any other full month of the season.  What many see as a team struggling and maybe tanking, I see as a team trying to expand everybody's game for future benefit.  It's all about improvement.  This is a team rebuilding and trying to get better in aspects of the game that contenders excel in.

For Boston to be successful in the summer, next season, and especially in future playoffs, Ainge has to target players this summer that can help pick up these gimmes.  Avery Bradley was a proficient shooter in the corner (46 out of 126) and Ainge will have to decide how much he'll improve and more importantly, how much that is worth as a restricted free agent.  No player on the roster averaged more than three buckets at the rim this season; could Danny target athletic rim runners like Aaron Gordon or Andrew Wiggins?  It's all food for thought as we watch the post-season and enter the off season.




bob
MY NOTE:  Blah, blah, blah.  Our defense sucked because we didn't have a central defensive scheme.  That could have been accomplished by doing the scrambling defense of Miami or it could be a more traditional one with a rim protector we didn't have.  Scrambling can be borderline chaos, if not done well and we were all new to each other.  So, we were pretty much screwed either way.  Our offense sucked because we didn't run consistently and shot too many low percentage 3s.  Maybe if we were a bigger team we would have played more inside but all we had was undersized PF Bass and undersized PF/C Sullinger for inside threats.  Our roster was off-balance producing off-balance results and all these stats this guy is dredging up just proves the already abundantly obvious.  We didn't have the players we needed to compete evenly.

Love his headline though.



.
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Post by Outside Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:47 am

I agree with the headline, but not the article. The author only discusses "easy buckets" as shots in the paint as part of the half-court offense, but by far the easiest buckets are those you get in transition off turnovers or by pushing the pace after rebounds and made shots and getting a shot off before the defense sets.

Much of that is based on defense, which is of course anything but easy, but the easy bucket is the reward for the effort expended on the other end. It's not like they could get 10 more baskets a game off of steals, but 6-8 points is doable, and how many games this season would 6-8 points have made a difference? They have the athletic perimeter players who can do this, and it was my hope that I'd see more of this by the end of this season, but it didn't happen.

The other part of the equation is the drumbeat I've heard from many here -- push the ball up the court and initiate the offense early. Part of that is so that you don't get stuck at the end of the shot clock without a good shot, but part of it is also pushing the ball to get shot opportunities before the defense is fully set.

Those are the things I think of when discussing "easy buckets."
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Post by Sam Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:55 am

Excellent summation, Outside.  You actually delved into the implications of the headline far more than the author did.

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Post by rickdavisakaspike Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:37 pm


Regarding easy buckets, Paul Pierce is gone but not forgotten. One of Paul's best moves to get an easy bucket happens to be one of the lost skills of the NBA: the Upfake. It's not a dazzling play, like a slamdunk, but it's an easy way to get 3 points and to get your opponent in foul trouble.

The Celtics in the past have had some serious practitioners of the upfake. The best may have been Don Nelson, who could make literally a dozen or two upfakes on a single play. McHale and Bird, Havlicek and Ramsey, all were past masters.

On this Celtics team, Kelly O may or may not carry on the tradition. Jeff Green could probably do it. Sully, being an old-fashioned kind of player, might someday catch on to its value.

There is, of course, a prerequisite to using the upfake: you have to be able to make your free throws, which is becoming another one of those lost skills.

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Post by Sam Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:01 pm

Rick,

Another Celtic who pulls off some gorgeous upfakes is Rondo. It seems that those best able to palm the ball comfortably boast the best upfakes. Perhaps a little Don Nelsom stickum wouldn't hurt them either.

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