The NBA Draft Consolation Prizes: Part 1

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The NBA Draft Consolation Prizes:  Part 1 Empty The NBA Draft Consolation Prizes: Part 1

Post by bobheckler Thu Apr 24, 2014 11:57 am

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/4/23/5643426/the-consolation-prizes-part-1-if-the-boston-celtics-lose-the-nba-draft-gordon-mcdermott-nurkic-smart


The NBA Draft Lottery Consolation Prizes: Part One
By Kevin O'Connor  @KevinOConnorNBA on Apr 23 2014, 8:00p 68


The NBA Draft Consolation Prizes:  Part 1 20140313_mta_ae5_027.0_standard_709.0
Eye on the ball. - Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
If the Boston Celtics don't end up with a top four pick and can't make a trade, which prospects could they look to draft?


What if the Boston Celtics lose the draft lottery and end up with the sixth or seventh pick? Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, and Dante Exum would likely be off the board, so what if Danny Ainge can't find a trading partner to acquire an impact player? Some Celtics fans might think this is a doom and gloom scenario, but that isn't the case.

In fact, Boston would still be in a great position to select a player who could become a difference-maker for the franchise. Here are four players the Celtics could select as consolation prizes if they aren't lucky enough to have a top four pick. Come back to CelticsBlog on Friday for Part Two and a look at another four prospects.


PLAYER----------SCHOOL-----YEAR-----AGE-----POS.-----HT.-----WT.------KO-----DX-----ESPN
Aaron Gordon----Arizona-------Fr.-------18------SF/PF----6-9-----225-------5------8-------6

Love him or hate him, there's a strong possibility that the Celtics pick Aaron Gordon. The freshman forward from Arizona has tons of potential, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Once he reaches his prime, he could very well defend three or four positions at a high level, and be the "star stopper" that many championship teams desire.

Gordon stands at 6-foot-9 with a wingspan near 7-feet, giving him fantastic size as a wing, but it's his athleticism, lateral quickness, and intelligence that makes him such an intriguing prospect. Gordon explodes off the floor, which has put him in good positioning to block or deter shots from the weakside. As a perimeter defender, Gordon fights through pick-and-rolls, but also does a sensational job of preventing penetration to the paint.

Most exceptionally, Aaron Gordon is a cerebral player. At only 18-years-old, Gordon's one of the youngest players in the draft, yet he's one of the most NBA-ready as a defender. At Arizona, Gordon rarely missed rotations and he always seemed to be in the right position to make a play. This will be very important during his rookie year when coaches must decide if they can trust him to be on the floor in crunch time.

Aaron Gordon is very skilled at putting the ball on the floor and creating for his teammates. Even though his assist numbers are low (75 on the year), Gordon does a great job at penetrating the lane, drawing the defense, and then swinging the ball out to the perimeter. On the post, Gordon is crafty at hitting teammates cutting to the rim, which is where 60 percent of his assists came from.

Gordon is extremely efficient in non-transition offense, shooting 71.5 percent at the rim and 36.4 percent from three. He must improve on his in-between game, but he was more productive in the half court (50.5 eFG%) than other prospects like Andrew Wiggins (45.7%), Julius Randle (47.8%), and Jabari Parker (49.8%).

Despite all the great facets of Aaron Gordon's game, the mainstream discussion about him tends to begin and end with his free throw shooting. Let's be clear: Gordon is terrible from the line, shooting only 42.2 percent. Gordon is a solid three-point shooter and has quality mechanics, so the problem has to be mental, especially with a rate so low. Once he's drafted, he'll have access to professional sports psychologists, which should increase his production.

Time and time again over the years, efficient shooters have managed to improve from the line. Players like Gerald Wallace, Chandler Parsons, and Blake Griffin, all went from subpar in college to efficient in the NBA. There is no reason why Aaron Gordon can't do the same, even if it takes a miracle like it did for Karl Malone in the early 1990s.





PLAYER---------------SCHOOL--------YEAR-----AGE-----POS.-----HT.------WT.-----KO------DX-----ESPN
Doug McDermott------Creighton--------Sr.------22-------SF/PF----6-8------225-----8-------11------11

Doug McDermott isn't athletic, he's not a good individual defender, and he certainly won't dominate the NBA like he did the NCAA...okay, we get it. This is all true, but these statements discredit the number of things he's talented at. For one, McDermott is the most efficient scorer in the draft because he can shoot effectively from anywhere on the court. You can't say that about many players at any level, but you can about McDermott.

This skill is valuable because NBA defenses work to take away a player's strengths. McDermott had to add to his game every single season because defenses would try to remove what he was best at. McDermott's freshman and sophomore seasons were mostly spent on the post or behind the arc, so he added a mid-range game during his junior season. As a senior, McDermott continued to perfect that, all the while extending his three-point shooting to NBA range.


http://dataomaha.com/media/mcdermott/scoring/#top
Doug McDermott by the numbers
by Dirk Chatelain


Is McDermott the quickest ball handler? No, that's for certain, but it's reasonable to assume that he will improve (just like he has every single season) and adapt to the speed of the NBA, making himself into a prolific scorer. Doug McDermott didn't score 3,150 points by taking his gifts for granted, and he'll continue to work on his craft in the NBA.

Not to mention that Doug McDermott will never have five defenders cluing in on him like he did at Creighton. In the NBA, he'll ideally be a second or third scoring option, which will open up opportunities as a trailer in transition, or as a slasher and spot-up shooter in the half court.

Everyone understands that McDermott isn't a very good individual defender, since he's too small to defend bigs and he's not quick enough to defend small forwards, but what isn't so obvious is his fantastic team defense. McDermott doesn't miss rotations and will always be in the right spot to make a play. For NBA coaches, sometimes this is more important, especially if he's playing on a team with a true rim protector.

Much of Doug McDermott's success in the pros will hinge on the team that drafts him. If he's expected to be a top scorer, he'll probably come up short, but if he's on a team that utilizes him as a complimentary threat, he will be a force for years to come. Maybe Brad Stevens and the Boston Celtics will be lucky enough to have him.





PLAYER----------COUNTRY-----AGE-----POS.-----HT.-----WT.-----KO-----DX-----ESPN
Jusuf Nurkic------Bosnia--------19------PF/C-----6-11-----280-----9------12------23

Jusuf Nurkic is 19-years-old, raw, overweight, and plays only 16.4 minutes per game in the Adriatic League. As unattractive as these facts appear, it's exactly why Nurkic is such a promising prospect, since he has only been playing competitive basketball since 2009.

Nurkic has tons of room to grow as a big man and has the skills to someday reach his sky-high potential. Even at just 19, Nurkic managed to lead the Adriatic League with a 35.6 PER. In a best-case scenario, he could become a Nikola Pekovic or DeMarcus Cousins type of player, though it's far too early to set the bar that high. But one thing is for sure: Jusuf Nurkic has loads of talent.

At 6-foot-11 and 280-pounds, Nurkic has tremendously nimble feet, which allows him to get where he wants with the ball. Though he's underdeveloped, Nurkic has an intriguing post game, which is highlighted by a filthy spin move into a jump hook or layup. Nurkic also has very good touch from the free throw line, hitting 71.4 percent of his freebies this season. He has yet to translate that into a mid-range jumper, but the tools are there.

Nurkic also has an 86-inch wingspan, so he has the length and speed to someday be an efficient rim protector, especially in the pick-and-roll. Right now, he's extremely prone to foul, averaging 8.2 per 40 minutes this season; but that speaks to his highly aggressive play and inexperience. More often than not, Nurkic knows what to do since he is in proper positioning, but further coaching is necessary for him to hone in on his physical gifts and cut down on silly fouls. Once that happens, Jusuf Nurkic could be the steal of the draft.





PLAYER------------SCHOOL-----------YEAR-----AGE-----POS.-----HT.------WT.------KO------DX-----ESPN
Marcus Smart------Oklahoma St.------So.-------20------PG/SG----6-4------220-------7-------6-------8

Chances are that Marcus Smart will pan out to be a very good combo-guard in the NBA, but he's not a great fit for the Celtics as the roster stands. With Rajon Rondo fixed as the starting point guard and the great possibility that Avery Bradley is resigned, drafting Smart might not make much sense unless a transaction is made.

But drafting for team need near the top of the draft is never a wise thing to do, and if the Celtics believe he's the best player available, they should take him. With that said, Smart has all the tools to become one of the best two-way players from this year's draft class.

Smart plays defense like a rabid pitbull, with agility to jump passing lanes, lateral quickness to stay in front of ball handlers, and the aggressiveness to block shots and dive for loose balls. Even though Smart is only 6-foot-4, he will be able to defend both guard positions in the NBA.

But Smart's tweener status raises questions about his true position on his offense. He's more likely to fit as a point guard, since his perimeter jumper (30.7% from mid-range and 29.9% from three) leaves a lot to be desired as a shooting guard. But even then, Smart's decision-making must improve before he can distribute the ball efficiently.

Yet, in today's NBA, is that really a problem? So many point guards look to score first and pass second, which Smart is capable of. His go-getter attitude translates on the offensive end of the floor, as he gets to the rim at will and draws fouls at a high-rate (64.8 FTA/FGA). With such explosiveness, Marcus Smart could be a major threat on both ends of the floor if he develops a jump shot.






bob
MY NOTE:  We don't need Aaron Gordon, unless Jeff Green is gone.  Even then, I cringe at how his free throw shooting will make my eyes bleed.  I admit to having a blind spot when it comes to tweeners, so take my opinion of McDermott with a big grain of salt, but he could be another Luke Harangody, a smart player who can do it all...in college.  Tyler Hansbrough was NCAA POY, and now he's an NBA journeyman.  He does have a point, however, about how no coach is going to be designing defenses around stopping Doug McDermott.  A knockdown shooter trailing the break is a knockdown shooter trailing the break, whether he's trailing because he was rebounding underneath or because he's just slow.  Pierce and Rondo made a living with Rondo feeding Pierce at the 3pt line on the break as the third or fourth man up court.

I never heard of Nurkic, so I'm watching the draftexpress video I provided.  That is one BIG kid.  I see him setting a lot of Euro screens, like Vitor.  Yuck.  He has a very nice hook shot.  Tommy will be swooning.  Quick hands and feet for a guy his size (280#).  7'2" wingspan.  However, he lacks discipline defensively, bites on pump fakes, reaches too much (relies TOO much on his quick hands) and gets into foul trouble.  Not a great pick-and-roll defender, they say.  Well, that's the kiss of death in the NBA.  Has trouble staying on the floor in the Adriatic League.  In other words, he's another 19-year old.  For those who are drooling over getting a center through the draft, the video is worth watching because draftexpress has him going at 11 to Philly, so if we drop in the lottery to 7 and Danny starts thinking he wants to trade down, this kid becomes a possible target now that Cauley-Stein is staying in school.

Marcus Smart?  Do we need another PG who can't shoot?  Isn't there some kind of league limit on those per team?

I'm sorry, but I don't accept the premise that the league is better today than it was "in the old days".  Most of these kids would be eaten alive by the 4-year college players but GMs nowadays are willing to pay them to go to school.  NOT many NBA ready players coming out of college nowadays.  That's why "old guys rule" in the NBA.  Knowing the game cold, building your IQ, is more important than having 19 year old legs over 22 year old legs and you build that IQ by being in a learning environment and getting minutes on the court.  With the NBA having such few practice days and only the relatively few getting significant minutes (like Michael Carter-Williams), it's hard to advance your game.



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Post by tjmakz Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:01 pm

So, the writer is talking about McDermott being a 2nd or 3rd option on his team but Boston could use a top 6 or 7 pick on him, if that's where Boston picks? No way. He is a hybrid between Luke Harangody and Jimmer Fredette. I think he will struggle defensively and won't have the open shots that he saw while at Creighton. I'm not convinced he will be picked in the lottery, and pretty sure he Boston won't want him with their first pick.
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Post by bobheckler Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:33 pm

tjmakz wrote:So, the writer is talking about McDermott being a 2nd or 3rd option on his team but Boston could use a top 6 or 7 pick on him, if that's where Boston picks? No way. He is a hybrid between Luke Harangody and Jimmer Fredette. I think he will struggle defensively and won't have the open shots that he saw while at Creighton. I'm not convinced he will be picked in the lottery, and pretty sure he Boston won't want him with their first pick.


TJ,

As I said, I have a blind spot for tweeners, so I'm inclined to agree with you.  I didn't think Chris Mullen or Corliss Williamson or Kelly Tripucka would make it in the NBA either.

Aaron Gordon and Smart are both legit #7 picks.  Either one of those could be gone by #7.  In fact, only the hype around unproven, untested Aussie Dante Exum that is preventing Smart from going earlier and having both of them gone by #7.  But McDermott?  I think not, although draftexpress has McDermott going to the Sixers with #10 and has Nurkic going to Orlando with #11, so stranger things than having #10 and #11 picks moving up and getting picked at #7 have happened.

We need dead-eye knockdown perimeter shooters.  We need an assassin.  Setting aside my blind eye (which would make it a glass eye as well) Doug McDermott could fit that bill.  For all his athletic weaknesses nobody has a bad word to say about his shooting.

And Trader Danny is not afraid to roll the dice.



bob


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Post by NYCelt Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:38 pm

Smart will probably go top 5 or 6 picks and possibly before Exum (unless an NBA exec is willing to take the risk Exum's game will translate to the NBA; IMO there are several guards that are better bets).

Smart's shooting is better than what he's being given credit for, and appeared to be one of the things that suffered due to his being shuttled between 2 and 1. Ditto the decision making comment.  He may have the highest basketball IQ of any player in this years draft.

After Parker or Embiid, I'd take Smart or Harris and let Bradley walk if we need to keep salary level reasonable.  Smart can be a reliable 2 and insurance at 1.
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Post by Outside Thu Apr 24, 2014 1:42 pm

I suppose it's possible that McDermott turns into a Chris Mullin, but I think it's more likely that his ceiling is Kyle Korver or Mike Miller. That's still value, but it's limited value.
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Post by Sam Thu Apr 24, 2014 4:12 pm

I don't even want to consider any player at any position—regardless of his attributes—who draws a lot of negative comments about his defense. I've become a fan of Exum (without seeing him play) because I like his height at both guard positions, and I've read some pretty good things about his defense. However, I like the fact that defense is the number one factoid mentioned about Smart.

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Post by bobheckler Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:36 am

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