The Omer Asik Thread

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Post by bobheckler Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:56 pm

We know Danny's after him.  We know he may still want out.  We know Morey's asking price was ridiculous (rumor is that he asked Charlotte for 3 first round picks for him).  So, we know there will be something bubbling about and around him this summer, so this is the thread for it, let's put them all here.

Let's start it with an article I found in the Houston Chronicle.  It gives some hints about what Houston wants to do this summer.  Knowing what they want is key.



http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterockets/2014/06/rockets-begin-to-show-hand-for-free-agency-plans/#23623101=0



Rockets begin to show hand for free agency plans
Posted on June 3, 2014 | By Jonathan Feigen





In perhaps the clearest sign of the Rockets’ plans for free agency next month, the Rockets are likely to allow forward Chandler Parsons to become a restricted free agent in the hopes that they could sign a major free agent and then go over the salary cap to retain Parsons, a person with knowledge of their thinking said on Tuesday.

Yahoo Sports first reported on Tuesday that the Rockets have decided not to pick up their option on a fourth season on Parsons’ contract. A person with knowledge of the Rockets thinking said that a decision about Parsons’ contract has not been finalized, but that the team is “leaning towards” having him become a free agent this summer.

That individual emphasized that if the team becomes too concerned that Parsons will receive too great a contract this summer, the Rockets could still opt to keep him under his rookie contract for one more season. The uncertainty about what sort of deal Parsons would receive, he said, has the team more likely to make him a free agent.

By making him a free agent this off-season, rather than after the 2014-15 season, and making a qualifying offer, the Rockets would be able to match any offer sheet Parsons signs. Rockets general manager Daryl Morey said last month that Parsons would be back with the Rockets next season.


The Rockets have until June 30 to pick up their option on Parsons’ contract for next season. Worth $964,750, it would be one of the top bargains in the NBA, but Parsons would then become an unrestricted free agent after the 2014-15 season.

If the Rockets were to pursue a top free agent after that season, it would be much more difficult to sign an expensive free agent and keep Parsons than would be this off-season when they would be able to match any offer he receives. A decision to allow Parsons to become a free agent this summer would indicate some confidence that they can sign a top free agent next month and would not have to wait until after next season.

The Rockets are expected to pursue the top free agents this summer – including LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Dirk Nowitzki – if each opts out of contracts and will consider the Rockets. To have that sort of cap room, the Rockets would have to move several contracts, likely including Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik, especially if Parsons is a free agent because of the cap hold necessary for the Rockets to retain their rights to match offers for him.

According to an individual familiar with the Rockets’ plans, they are confident they would be able to move Lin and Asik’s contracts because unlike their failed efforts to trade Asik last season, they would be looking to clear cap room, rather than bring back rotation players with similar contracts .

Parsons, the Rockets’ third-leading scorer last season, has said he wants to return to the Rockets next season. When asked this week on Twitter if he expects to be back, he answered to ask Morey.



bob
MY NOTE:  That last bolded sentence is the key.  If they want to free cap space rather than pick up players to fill out/upgrade their roster, then Danny can offer a buffet table of non-guaranteed contracts, contracts that could be for 1 year which would free their cap for next summer's free agent bonanza and the $10.3M TPE. If Carmelo would go to Houston, I expect the price for Asik to go down, since they will NEED a trading partner to free up the cap space without taking on additional contracts to sign him and Danny has that almost perfectly sized TPE. If Melo likes Houston, then Morey needs Danny more than Danny needs Morey.


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Post by Sam Fri Jun 06, 2014 8:27 pm

A buffet table of non-quaranteed contracts plus as many as three first-rounders (but not this year's because now I'm thinking they'll need that to make a pitch for Love).

Salivating! Or is that drool! How do you tell the difference?

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Post by k_j_88 Sat Jun 07, 2014 10:38 pm

If Boston makes a trade with Houston, I do not see it being without a third party in the mix, that is, if the asking price for Asik does not change.



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Post by kdp59 Sun Jun 08, 2014 8:53 am

I am not sure a trade for a vet center will be in the mix this off-season, unless Ainge can get an all-star player here also.

Asik alone will not turn us into a contender and possibly won't get us even into the playoffs.

so why give up assets on any of the current centers bandied about here, if they are not getting us somewhere.

Ainge may see next year as a better chance to make the jump, with an improved roster this year though the draft.

Hard to see which direction the Celtics will go...all in for a longer term rebuild or all in for a quick rebuild. But if it's something in between I fear that will fail.
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Post by worcester Sun Jun 08, 2014 10:17 am

Like I said earlier, don't be surprised if Danny enters a ménage a trois with Houston and ?
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Post by Sam Sun Jun 08, 2014 10:55 am

kdp,

No single player alone will take the Celtics to the promised land.  But the right player, filling the right role, can become part of a collection of players who can begin pointing the team in the right direction.

The single role that is most obviously unfilled on this team is that of intimidator/rebounder.  If Asik can fill that role adequately, he doesn't have to be a Bill Russell.  However, although I'd never remotely hint at comparing the two as players, intimidator/rebounder happens to be the primary role that Bill Russell filled on a team of complementary players.

The value of any given player is rarely about that player alone or how he, personally, can change the fortunes of a club who acquires him.  It's about how much better the team becomes with that player on it.  It's never all about the individual.  It's more about the team. The most important reason to get an intimidator/rebounder now is so that the team won't remain so unbalanced that guys have to play out of position or adjust (especially on defense) for the fact that they don't have a true intimidator/rebounder.  They rather desperately need to begin learning how to play as a balanced team regardless of how good that team they is at any given moment.

There's a lot of talk about a the wisdom of a lengthy rebuilding process versus a quick rebuilding process.  I believe it doesn't have to be either/or.  The important thing is the right rebounding process.  And the right rebuilding process involves not only getting players but also putting those players in the best position to succeed.  If the end product happens to display a rapidly increasing synergy, then the development time may be shortened.  If not, then the development time is lengthened; but, at least the powers that be will be able to evaluate the roster, at any point in time, based on how the players perform under conditions of a balanced team rather than under conditions of a team with roles assigned by default.

Last season, we watched (especially on defense) a bunch of individuals trying their best to play roles acquired by default rather than roles for which they were necessarily best suited.  Failing to get the intimidator/rebounder for another season (especially when they have a plethora of trade chips) will put them in the same position this season; and no player they are likely to bring in at any of the other four positions is likely to compensate for the imbalance the hole at the center position will cause for the entire team.

Sam


Last edited by sam on Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:28 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by worcester Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:00 am

Danny simply MUST be aware of this.
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Post by cowens/oldschool Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:50 am

so we all agree with Sully at his natural position, the growth and health of everyone elses games and a couple good picks, Smart and TJ Warren....we could be in the mix in a weak Eastern Conference with a load like Asik manning the middle.

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Post by Sam Sun Jun 08, 2014 11:56 am

Who knows, Cow?  What may look good on paper sometimes doesn't work in actuality.  Moreover, if Asik and/or Love were to be acquired, my guess would be that we wouldn't have a couple of good picks this year.

My idea is just to put together the best possible team, with a suitable amount of balance, at this point in time, and not to try to predict how far that team will take them. Then, during and after next season, monitor the progress of the team and, more importantly, what factors are keeping them from an even better performance. Tweak the team in the needed areas, and evaluate some more. Etc., etc., etc.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:10 pm

Love is redundant without the necessary rim protector, maybe we could give up a few future picks to keep a few good ones in this draft.

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Post by dboss Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:18 pm

I like to TPE angle for Asik.  

I see no good reason to give up more than 1 future pick for Asik.

If Houston goes after any high end free agent the one that seems more likely to sign with them would be Anthony.  He would have his big three party with Harden and Howard.

They have to move Asik so why give them too much.  We  do not have to get Asik.  But Houston has to move him.  They are a lot closer to contention but realize that they do not have the right players on the team to go further.   Asik's contract prevents them from moving forward.  They need a salary dump.

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Post by Sam Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:18 pm

I believe the #6 pick would have to be involved. Quantity of future picks (with undetermined position) seldom trumps a high pick NOW.

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Post by dboss Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:35 pm

The question is before us in multiple forms.

If we get Love and Asik are we a contender this year?  I think not.

If we get Asik and Anthony are we contenders this year?  I think so provided we resign Avery and add a couple of specialty players (shooter and a defender)

The big problem is that our cap numbers make any deal extremely difficult.

Could we just draft two players and wait until next year?  Yes

If The Celtics get Love it could help in getting Anthony but without a center we would have upgraded our SF and PF spots but neglected to address other needs.

I do not think that DA can address all of his issues in one year therefore He should be careful not to use too many chips all at once.

If we could use the TPE to get Asik that may be the best move to make this year.

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Post by kdp59 Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:36 pm

well I guess I disagree that the Celtics can be successful doing a type of long-term/short term hybrid rebuild.

but I do agree with you Sam, that Asik should improve the team. how much is one questioned to me the bigger question is at what cost.

so lets get to it ....how much would each of us be willing to part with for Asik (lets assume this is a stand alone deal).

for me Bass and the clippers pick next season is all I can see. though I do give them Bogans if they want the salary dump.

anything more is wasting assets IMO.
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Post by hawksnestbeach Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:10 pm

Sorry to be contrary, but this discussion seems to be about improving the team for next season, not about winning a ring in 3-5 years. Rather acquiring than Love or Asik at high prices, I'd like to see us offer Utah something small to exchange the 5-and-6 picks this year, allowing us to land Vonleh. In the time frame above, I think Vonleh will out-produce Asik, just as our other now young players (Sully, Kelly, Bradley) are reaching their peak. Green is expendable in that time frame, and Rondo can be traded sooner, rather than later, if he doesn't want to wait.
Next year's starting lineup could be Vonleh, Sully-Kelly, Green, Rondo and Bradley, with our #17 draft pick coming off the bench: an exciting, low-cost, but perhaps lottery-bound edition. Still plenty of pitfalls to negotiate, but with a couple of first-round picks next year, too, vast improvement by 2016 seems possible. As an option within this scenario, Rondo could be traded this summer to a contender for picks or someone quite young and promising, ready to bloom by '16, and our picks next year would be better as our record no doubt would be worse.
The way I see it, the only reason for a quick rebuild, with Love and-or Asik and-or Melo and-or Perk, etc. coming to Boston, is if we have a plan to win now. Even with three of the above, I don't see it happening (but of course if we get them, I'll be agog with anticipation). Perk is still Perk, a slow warrior, Love is a weak defender and Melo is a gifted ball hog: Put them all together at the expense of our draft picks, and we'll be pretty good, just not good enough. Patience! Hawk

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Post by dboss Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:11 pm

Based on the article Houston may over value Asik.

They want draft picks but no salary.

So if we give them a draft pick for Asik and use the TPE that would be reasonable.

I really like this year's draft and #6 is a very good position to draft.  We have some future picks so I would consider giving them a future first rounder.

I'm greedy I want Asik and both picks this year.  The TPE must be used this year and Houston wants more cap flexibility now.

Also the more I think about the Anthony to Houston possibility it conflicts with the Parson's issue.  

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Post by kdp59 Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:18 pm

hawksnestbeach wrote:Sorry to be contrary, but this discussion seems to be about improving the team for next season, not about winning a ring in 3-5 years. Rather acquiring than Love or Asik at high prices, I'd like to see us offer Utah something small to exchange the 5-and-6 picks this year, allowing us to land Vonleh. In the time frame above, I think Vonleh will out-produce Asik, just as our other now young players (Sully, Kelly,  Bradley) are reaching their peak. Green is expendable in that time frame, and Rondo can be traded sooner, rather than later, if he doesn't want to wait.
  Next year's starting lineup could be Vonleh, Sully-Kelly, Green, Rondo and Bradley, with our #17 draft pick coming off the bench: an exciting, low-cost, but perhaps  lottery-bound edition. Still plenty of pitfalls to negotiate, but with a couple of first-round picks next year, too, vast improvement by 2016 seems possible. As an option within this scenario, Rondo could be traded this summer to a contender for picks or someone quite young and promising, ready to bloom by '16, and our picks next year would be better as our record  no doubt would be worse.
  The way I see it, the only reason for a quick rebuild, with Love and-or Asik and-or Melo and-or Perk, etc. coming to Boston, is if we have a plan to win now. Even with three of the above, I don't see it happening (but of course if we get them, I'll be agog with anticipation). Perk is still Perk, a slow warrior, Love is a weak defender and Melo is a gifted ball hog: Put them all together at the expense of our draft picks, and we'll be pretty good, just not good enough. Patience! Hawk

I like Vonleh as an option for the Celtics pick this year, but I don't think he will come close to starting in his rookie year. he could be a GREAT pick in a long term (3-4 years) rebuild, however. I do see him as having a real shot to be a Bosh type NBA player. he could fit in long term with Sully well up front, with Kelly would be a 6th man type up front.

kinda gets back to my post about long term/short term rebuild.

Vonleh= long term
Asik= short term



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Post by cowens/oldschool Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:27 pm

dboss wrote:Based on the article Houston may over value Asik.

They want draft picks but no salary.

So if we give them a draft pick for Asik and use the TPE that would be reasonable.

I really like this year's draft and #6 is a very good position to draft.  We have some future picks so I would consider giving them a future first rounder.

I'm greedy I want Asik and both picks this year.  The TPE must be used this year and Houston wants more cap flexibility now.

Also the more I think about the Anthony to Houston possibility it conflicts with the Parson's issue.  

dboss


thats exactly what I want, give them Bass, Green, Bogans, Wallace whatever junk they might use....we don't need Love, he puts up stats on a weak team thats never made the playoffs once and is more fragile than durable.

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Post by dboss Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:28 pm

hawksnestbeach wrote:Sorry to be contrary, but this discussion seems to be about improving the team for next season, not about winning a ring in 3-5 years. Rather acquiring than Love or Asik at high prices, I'd like to see us offer Utah something small to exchange the 5-and-6 picks this year, allowing us to land Vonleh. In the time frame above, I think Vonleh will out-produce Asik, just as our other now young players (Sully, Kelly,  Bradley) are reaching their peak. Green is expendable in that time frame, and Rondo can be traded sooner, rather than later, if he doesn't want to wait.
  Next year's starting lineup could be Vonleh, Sully-Kelly, Green, Rondo and Bradley, with our #17 draft pick coming off the bench: an exciting, low-cost, but perhaps  lottery-bound edition. Still plenty of pitfalls to negotiate, but with a couple of first-round picks next year, too, vast improvement by 2016 seems possible. As an option within this scenario, Rondo could be traded this summer to a contender for picks or someone quite young and promising, ready to bloom by '16, and our picks next year would be better as our record  no doubt would be worse.
  The way I see it, the only reason for a quick rebuild, with Love and-or Asik and-or Melo and-or Perk, etc. coming to Boston, is if we have a plan to win now. Even with three of the above, I don't see it happening (but of course if we get them, I'll be agog with anticipation). Perk is still Perk, a slow warrior, Love is a weak defender and Melo is a gifted ball hog: Put them all together at the expense of our draft picks, and we'll be pretty good, just not good enough. Patience! Hawk

Some Celtics fans are very patient and others want to see those fireworks that have been promised.

We just do not know what is going to happen

Vonleh and Asik cannot be compared because one is a PF with some SF skills and the other is a center.  I also like Vonleh and would love to see the Celtics draft him while understanding that his selection does not specifically address our two most pressing needs.  However sometimes when there is a player with that level of talent you have to draft them.

While I do agree with you about being patient we need a center more than anything else now.  How can  Sully develop into the PF that we all think he can become?  How can we ever expect to defend the pick and roll when we do not have an aggressive big body to defend the rim?

Our defense in particular can never be complete until we have a center.  However does that justify over paying for a center?  I think not.

I think Gortat is our best option because he is a free agent come July 1st while Asik is still under contract.  Cap considerations apply to both players.

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Post by dboss Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:29 pm

cowens/oldschool wrote:
dboss wrote:Based on the article Houston may over value Asik.

They want draft picks but no salary.

So if we give them a draft pick for Asik and use the TPE that would be reasonable.

I really like this year's draft and #6 is a very good position to draft.  We have some future picks so I would consider giving them a future first rounder.

I'm greedy I want Asik and both picks this year.  The TPE must be used this year and Houston wants more cap flexibility now.

Also the more I think about the Anthony to Houston possibility it conflicts with the Parson's issue.  

dboss


thats exactly what I want, give them Bass, Green, Bogans, Wallace whatever junk they might use....we don't need Love, he puts up stats on a weak team thats never made the playoffs once and is more fragile than durable.

Cow I am on the same page with you

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Post by Sam Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:34 pm

The cap situation does not come into play with a trade because they're sending out salaries equivalent to the salaries they're acquiring. That's a major reason (of several) why a trade is more expedient than a free agent signing.

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Post by Sam Sun Jun 08, 2014 2:05 pm

People seem to think I believe Asik would catapult them into contention. That belief is completely erroneous. I believe Asik would balance the roster so that the team can develop in a more constructive manner—however long it takes for them to get into contention.

• It's difficult-to-impossible for players to work toward achieving their potentials when playing out of position.

• It's difficult-to-impossible for players to settle into comfortable roles when their roles are in a state of flux.

• It's difficult-to-impossible to develop chemistry with an unbalanced cast of characters who are struggling with their individual roles.

• It's difficult-to-impossible for the coach to put systems in place when the cast of characters lacks a key component.

Development need not be completed overnight. But those who are focusing 3-5 years down the road and are therefore shying away from moves in the short term are overlooking an important fact. Development should be ongoing, starting this season. And I've cited a lot of ways in which a more balanced roster at this time can enhance the development process—regardless of long it lasts. Do not confuse roster manipulation designed to facilitate a sensible development process over time with roster manipulation designed to win a championship in the short term.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Sun Jun 08, 2014 2:18 pm

Sam I agree with everything you wrote and your point is beyond valid.

I'll take it a step further, Lebron and Wade are not getting any younger, Lebron couldn't even finish his last game.

If we can get an Asik or Gortat on the cheap, not have to give up 6 and 17 and have a great draft, say a Smart to add another athletic dimension to a starting backcourt of the healthy Rondo and a more improved scoring version of AB, our backcourt could be set.

Now add a Nustic or a TJ Warren with Sully and KO and whoever is left and add the growth of Sully and KO....

We could be alot closer than people think, theres alot of depth and young pros set to make the next jump, if we hit the gold mine and land Smart and Warren and they are what we hope they are, things could get really good really fast.

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Post by hawksnestbeach Sun Jun 08, 2014 2:39 pm

Sam, I don't think Asik would vault us into contention, which is the only reason I'd want him at the apparent asking price. To me, for each acquisition, we should ask two questions: Is this player good enough to start on a championship team in 2016(7)? and Is the price right? In Asik's case, the price seems too high. I think he could be serviceable if surrounded by great players.
dboss, I don't think Vonleh would thrive as a starting center next year, but we do have Vitor, Anthony and maybe Iversen available. Say we did start Vonleh, or play him quite a bit at center. Would this stunt his growth or jumpstart it? Would our record be comparable to this year's with such a team? (And lead to the same type of draft status: a decent chance to land a very good player?)
I just can't see heading into the future, which Danny certainly did with the Nets' deal, by bringing in vets like Perk, Asik, and Love, who will be paid according to what they have done, not what they're likely to do in the future. Hawk

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Post by swish Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:06 pm

Asik to the Celtics?  With or with out him the team doesn't figure to be a serious contender next year. Like Rondo, Asik can walk at the end of next year. Like Rondo it could cost 12 plus mil to sign him to a new contract next year. Way to much for a non elite player. Stand pat this year, unless they can pick up a  blue chipper. Add the draft picks, continue to develop the young players and see what moves can be made during the summer of 2015 when the team could also have as much as 25 mil available for free agents.
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