Summer Quandaries: State Of The Center

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Post by bobheckler Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:17 pm

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2014/09/sq14-48-celtics-state-of-center.html



Summer Quandaries:  State Of The Center SQ%2B2



Remember the story of the six blind men who were allowed to touch an elephant and then give their description thereof?  One said it was like a wall, one said a pillar, one a rope, and, well you get the idea.  I suspect you would get a similar diversity if you posed a state of the center position to Celtics’ fans.  About the only thing fans would agree on is that the team is not “set” at the center position.  No All-Star rim protector with established backup and third string “comer” in development.  But things are not all bad, let me tell you why.

Vitor Faverani started, and showed some nice skills and a feisty attitude toward offenders coming into “his” paint.  Then he quickly tailed off into the obscurity of lost rotations, fouls from out of position, and a step or two slow in recognition and reaction.  Banished to the bench to absorb by observation, a month later D&B shipped him up to Maine to get some work and see if the pro game had begun to slow down for him.  About the time he started to show improvement he came up lame with a knee that just wouldn’t get better.  A month later, surgery and out for the season.  Still, he showed those nice skills and staked a claim to the paint--so maybe he comes back healed, hungry, and hopping mad.

Tyler Zeller came in as Danny cashed in his Pierce-trade TPE just before its expiration date in July.  He also got a first round pick and the dubious asset Marcus Thornton for helping Cleveland clear space to build LeBron‘s latest hand-picked super-team.  Near the trade deadline last year he “got” Joel Anthony and a first (or more likely two seconds) and a second round pick for two gunslingers Jordan Crawford and MarShon Brooks (who both have had trouble getting another NBA contract this summer).  Two centers and three or four picks for a TPE and two castoffs?  How does the man do it?  He must be a magician, or con man

Let’s get Anthony out of the way first (if only it was that easy!)  Lo and behold Joel exercised his $3.8M players option--surprise, surprise (in Gomer Pyle voice).  So instead of a third string up-and-comer development player, we are stuck with a 32-year-old journeyman who is likely cashing his last NBA paychecks.  The question I’ve been holding for a Quick Hits post is “Could Anthony get a vet min contract if Danny Ainge bought out his current contract (for maybe 3.2 - vetmin ?)  The Celtics could really use the $3.8M cap space and the roster slot.  I suppose the good news is that Anthony is just one injury away from moving from the Inactive List to a DNP-CD at the end of the bench.

Now for the better news, Tyler, by most accounts is the best of the Zeller brothers.  He had a nice rookie season and with a dedicated off-season had added much-needed bulk for a second season continuation.  Then Zeller went down for an emergency appendectomy during training camp.  Cleveland took the perpetually rehabbing Andrew Bynum off of Philly’s hands, Varejo came back from his injury, Zeller lost all his added bulk and conditioning, and Tyler hardly got back on the court until near the end of the season.  By them Bynum had been declared persona non grata, Varejo had gotten injured again, and Tyler had his chance.  He had a string of nice games as the season wound down and then came LeBron-gate.  While much has been made of Zeller’s drop in stats his second season, I think Ainge got a real diamond in the rough.  He’s not the flying rim-protector many are calling for but he does play good one-on-one defense and is highly mobile allowing him to run on offense and position himself on defense to take charges from driving opponents.  So he does protect the rim, he just does it from the ground.  I think he is going to be a really pleasant surprise, and our starting center.

Which brings me back to Vitor Faverani as the backup.  I am very disappointed with his decision to rehab in Europe, especially since communication and understanding the Celtics offensive and defensive systems were major impediments to his performance last year.  I also was a little stunned by his statement that he hoped to be at 90% when he came in to camp.  The reading I did on meniscus repair suggested that the patient should be walking in two weeks and back to normal activities in 4-6 weeks.  Now professional basketball is hardly “normal activities” and his injury was supposedly in a difficult place, but wouldn’t you expect that nearly seven months after surgery, he would hope to be at more than 90%?  And that’s just tossing out the DWI which probably didn’t occur coming back from a hard workout.  I really, really hope I am completely wrong in my misgivings.

A final note.  With 96 front court minutes to be split between Sullinger, Olynyk, Bass, Zeller, and Faverani, I think I would pencil in 30 apiece for Sully, Kelly, and Zelly.  That suggests Olynyk will be playing 12-18 minutes at center.  If Kelly adds strength during the off-season, which I think should have been his highest priority, then he’s going to fare much better in his one-on-one match-ups against opposing post players.  He won’t be soaring to block shots at the rim but he has already shown the smarts to set up for charges--he’s just been a little slow to get in position.  On offense he’ll take opposing big men outside and open the lane for Sullinger to operate down low and drivers to slash to the basket.  

I think our center corps will be quite serviceable.  My question would be will Bass get the remaining minutes at PF or will Faverani get them at center.

Only 16 days until the start of training camp.




bob
MY NOTE:  I don't see Sully and Kelly averaging 30mpg each.  I see them getting closer to 26-28.  That frees up more minutes for Bass.  Also, I don't see Kelly getting more than spot minutes at center.  They want him to be a PF, he's probably better at PF, so that's what he's going to be unless it's a matchup thing.  Still beating the Joel from Krypton drum, I think he's going to get more minutes early on as Vitor is unavailable, especially for an uptempo game, which will allow Sully and Kelly to showcase and develop their talents at their natural positions. Playing players at a position they're not expected to play big minutes at is, in fact, counter-developmental.

I have written that I was/am not happy about Vitor rehabbing in Europe.  You can't tell a grown man what to do, but someone should have pointed out the correlation between his evaporating minutes and his lack of NBA experience to him and suggested that "being here" might be a positive thing.

Interesting idea, that Zeller's paint protection will be "on the ground".  If that works, then that works.  Cutting off penetration is what it's all about.  Of course, if that's always being done by the baseline defender, then that baseline defender is going to pick up a lot of "help" fouls.  Defending the paint should begin at the perimeter, not inside the dotted line.  Nevertheless, I don't think there's much question that we're in better shape than we were last year.  At least this year we have a center...




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Post by Outside Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:13 pm

If I didn't know better, I'd say Lee Lauderdale, not A. S. Blakely, has been reading this forum. Lauderdale is pessimistic about Anthony, optimistic about Zeller, and expresses many of the same opinions supporting those positions that I've read here. He's disappointed in Vitor's offseason decisions but hopeful he can put that behind him. He sees Olynyk filling in some at center, which is natural for people to do since he's a seven-footer.

I had forgotten that Zeller had an appendectomy, which I think puts some context into his relatively down performance last season (as does the return of Varejao after missing most of the previous season and the arrival of Spencer Hawes at the trade deadline).

I found this assessment of Zeller after last season. It comes from the Cavs' team website, where every player gets the most positive spin, but it still a worthwhile read.

http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/news/features/playerfile-zeller-140611
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Post by kdp59 Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:20 pm

A final note. With 96 front court minutes to be split between Sullinger, Olynyk, Bass, Zeller, and Faverani, I think I would pencil in 30 apiece for Sully, Kelly, and Zelly


I think someone had math issues!

Bass is going to play 6 min/game?

LOL

whooops!


Bob, I think you are much closer than the writer, on minutes allocation.


Sully-28/G (75Games)
Zeller- 24/G (77 Games)
Bass- 22/G (80 games)
Kelly- 22/G (78 games)

play em where ya want, I think of them as our two big men spots.




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Post by bobheckler Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:36 pm

Outside wrote:If I didn't know better, I'd say Lee Lauderdale, not A. S. Blakely, has been reading this forum. Lauderdale is pessimistic about Anthony, optimistic about Zeller, and expresses many of the same opinions supporting those positions that I've read here. He's disappointed in Vitor's offseason decisions but hopeful he can put that behind him. He sees Olynyk filling in some at center, which is natural for people to do since he's a seven-footer.

I had forgotten that Zeller had an appendectomy, which I think puts some context into his relatively down performance last season (as does the return of Varejao after missing most of the previous season and the arrival of Spencer Hawes at the trade deadline).

I found this assessment of Zeller after last season. It comes from the Cavs' team website, where every player gets the most positive spin, but it still a worthwhile read.

http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/news/features/playerfile-zeller-140611


outside,

I watched that video.  Unfortunately, it only shows the final frames of highlights, so you don't get to see the picks and such that set up the score.  He appears to be ambidextrous around the hoop, that's nice.  I am not impressed when 7'0" athletes show they can stuff a ball through a 10' high hoop. He also showed a nice little mid-range baseline jumper.  I'd prefer my centers stay out of the corners, since it means they have to run that much further to get back on defense, but...

What I want to see, the video I'd like to see, is one showing Tyler Zeller defending the PnR.  If he shows me he can do that I don't care if he blocks shots or rebounds like a fiend, we have other players that can crash the boards (Sully, Bass and Kelly can all do that).  What we got killed on last year, because we didn't have a center, was PnR defense.



bob



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Post by Sam Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:43 pm

There's every reason why Zeller, who is known as a very hard worker, could regain and likely surpass his rookie season performance.

He doesn't seem to be the kind of guy who will come in and immediately assume a high-impact role in terms of scoring and rebounding; he'll more likely take leftovers during the early season.

Then, as the roles on the team become more crystallized, I'm hoping he will assert himself more prominently on a nightly basis.  Of course, I'm sure I must have uttered the same words about Jeff Green; if not, heck, consider them uttered now.

I gather that he moves well, even laterally, which could bode well for his pick and roll defense, as could his basketball smarts.

Nothing's assured, but at least there's reason to hope that he could become a sufficiently solid contributor at the center position to avoid forcing his teammates to make for his deficiencies.

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Post by Outside Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:02 pm

Bob,

I didn't even watch the video. I assumed it was a highlight rehash like others I've seen.

What jumped out to me was this: "The Cavs were a combined +70 with Zeller on the floor over his last seven games." I know plus/minus is more about five-man combinations than a single individual, but that still caught my attention, especially considering it was on a bad Cavs team that was -34 when Zeller wasn't on the floor.

I obviously am on the optimistic side regarding Zeller, but I don't see how he can't be an improvement considering he is an actual center and I see significant upside to his game. But like you say, let's see how well he defends the pick and roll and fits with Stevens' team defense.
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Post by k_j_88 Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:06 pm

KDP,

Perhaps the writer thinks that Bass will be moved. That's the only logical (in my mind) explanation as to why he omitted Mr. Reliable.



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Post by kdp59 Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:22 pm

well KJ maybe he knows something more about the house being for sale then we do!

still hard for me to see Sully, Zeller and Kelly all playing about 2400 minutes next year.

maybe one of them.

those types of minutes are reserved for "elite" players like Green and Rondo, after all.
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Post by k_j_88 Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:28 pm

kdp59 wrote:well KJ maybe he knows something more about the house being for sale then we do!

still hard for me to see Sully, Zeller and Kelly all playing about 2400 minutes next year.

maybe one of them.

those types of minutes are reserved for "elite" players like Green and Rondo, after all.


I imagine things would proceed on a needs basis. We don't know when Faverani will return; that alone automatically assures plentiful minutes for Sully, Kelly, Bass, and Zeller. Zeller will (and should) take the brunt of the load at center. I imagine Brad will have Sully and Kelly to chip in there as long as Fav is not active.



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Post by kdp59 Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:18 am

I thought it might be nice to see what the "average" size of each player at center and Power forward were last year.

even though I think those positions are no longer apt for the current NBA.

so I looked up each teams stats last year and found the player that played the most minutes on the year at those positions. That meant injured  players like B. Lopez didn't make the cut.

also some teams had interesting positons when you actually looked at REAl minutes played (such as OKL, where Ibake played more center minutes).

so not including the Celtics last year the average size of the players who played the most minutes at center on their team was......6-11.25, 256.8#

Power forwards averaged......6-9.5, 243.8#


there simply are not that many 280# center who get the most playing time in the NBA . in fact only Five players were 270# or more.

but LENGTH appears to still be the primary need at the position. with again only FIVE teams that had players less than 6-11 get the most minutes at center.


our guys this coming year:

Faverani at 6-11, 260#
Zeller at 7-0, 253 #
Olynyk at 7-0, 238#
Anthony at 6-9, 245#

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Post by bobheckler Sun Sep 14, 2014 12:15 pm

kdp59 wrote:I thought it might be nice to see what the "average" size of each player at center and Power forward were last year.

even though I think those positions are no longer apt for the current NBA.

so I looked up each teams stats last year and found the player that played the most minutes on the year at those positions. That meant injured  players like B. Lopez didn't make the cut.

also some teams had interesting positons when you actually looked at REAl minutes played (such as OKL, where Ibake played more center minutes).

so not including the Celtics last year the average size of the players who played the most minutes at center on their team was......6-11.25, 256.8#

Power forwards averaged......6-9.5, 243.8#


there simply are not that many 280# center who get the most playing time in the NBA . in fact only Five players were 270# or more.

but LENGTH appears to still be the primary need at the position. with again only FIVE teams that had players less than 6-11 get the most minutes at center.


our guys this coming year:

Faverani at 6-11, 260#
Zeller at 7-0, 253 #
Olynyk at 7-0, 238#
Anthony at 6-9, 245#



kdp,

Nice work.  I appreciate you taking the time to do the research to substantiate your points.  That's one of the things that separate the members of this boards vs other boards.  One of the things that used to drive me crazy about BDC is that you had a multitude of numbnuts throwing ego and 'tude around and not back them up with anything of substance.  That's one of the reason why you kicked the draft predicting boards' butts this year.

Well, we're better than last year because Zeller is legit, Vitor has the size and Kelly has put on some muscle and is certainly closer to 245# than 238#.  Then again, being "better than last year" doesn't say much because we really didn't have any center last year.  As far as length goes, though, I'm not sure your tale of the tape tells all.  Danny has been drafting and trading for players with almost freakish wingspans for a few years now.  It looks like he thinks that is more important to playing defense than actual size and I think I agree with him, to a point.  Any player can shoot over an obstacle if he knows how high that obstacle is.  The advantage of wingspan, paired with a quick leap (or, even better, quick double leaps) is that you're not looking at his wingspan when you measure up for your shot.  

Bass - 6'8", 7'2 1/2" wingspan.
Bradley - 6'3", 6'7 1/2" wingspan.
Smart - 6'4", 6'9" wingspan.
Rondo - 6'1", 6'9" wingspan.
Johnson - 6'6", 6'11" wingspan.
Babb - 6'5", 6'9" wingspan.

So, a lot of back court players with wingspans that could qualify them for their own air force squadron, and a PF.  And where is the Celtic defense best?  I'd say "the back court".  Who is the Celtics' best front court defender?  I'd say Bass.

Zeller is 7'0" with an unimpressive 7'0" wingspan.  Anthony has a very, very nice 7'5" wingspan.  Anthony has a 9'6" standing reach while Zeller's is 8'8 1/2".  Kelly may never play center in the NBA while Anthony has already played 8 and going on 9.  Anthony has lateral speed and mobility, even at 32, that neither Zeller nor Kelly have.  My point is that while height is certainly desired, especially on offense, it may not be the primary stat to be looking for on defense.  Wingspan, paired with lateral speed, a quick leap and high IQ might be. There used to be a player who wasn't all that tall compared to his peers, weighed significantly less and yet, because of his wingspan and quick multiple leaps and excellent lateral mobility and high BBIQ was considered a pretty decent defender. I think his name is Bill Russell.



bob



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Post by kdp59 Sun Sep 14, 2014 4:10 pm

I agree Bob, wingspan or standing reach are probably a much better way to determine "possible" defensive abilities in big men.

I never knew Bass had such LONG wingspan!!

no wonder Doc played him at center at times.
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Post by Sam Sun Sep 14, 2014 5:18 pm

Wingspan is why Brandon got such a high proportion of tip-offs when he started at center.

I'm going to have to see Zeller's lack of lateral speed and mobility before being concerned about it.

Another factor that could be at least as important for a center on defense (if not more so) than any of the above is positioning.  Especially showing the opponent different positioning 'looks." Avoiding predictability can win a lot of basketball battles.

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Post by k_j_88 Sun Sep 14, 2014 9:37 pm

Bass's length gives him the ability to check quick SFs, guard most PFs and some Cs. As a defender, his versatility is highly underrated.

I wish Kelly had a longer wingspan, but I guess you can't help what you're destined to be.

in regards to Zeller's lateral mobility, I guess we'll get a good look during preseason to ascertain how much of an issue it could be.



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