Kelly Olynyk's Rookie Year Put Him In Good Company In NBA History

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Will Kelly Olynyk Be Named An All-Star At Least Once In His Career?

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Post by bobheckler Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:19 pm

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/9/16/6154241/kelly-olynyk-rookie-year-put-him-in-good-company-in-nba-history-boston-celtics-gonzaga



Kelly Olynyk's rookie year put him in good company in NBA history
By Kevin O'Connor  @KevinOConnorNBA on Sep 16 2014, 9:54a 20




Kelly Olynyk's Rookie Year Put Him In Good Company In NBA History 20140319_krj_aj6_0076.0_standard_783.0
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Was Kelly Olynyk's rookie year better than we give it credit for?




Kelly Olynyk's name often gets mention among the likes of Dirk Nowitzki and Larry Bird because of his long hair, the team he plays for, and the number he wears. While it's fun for fans to make these comparisons, it's unfair since the bar shouldn't be set so high for Kelly, or most any other player for that matter.

But that doesn't change the fact that Olynyk deserves praise for being a highly productive player during his rookie year with the Boston Celtics. The team scored 6.2 points more per 100 possessions with the 7-footer from Gonzaga on the floor than they did without him, a sign that he made a positive offensive impact.

More impressively, Olynyk's per 36-minute averages of 15.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists put him in good company in NBA history. Only nine centers or power forwards 23-years or younger have had per 36 averages of at least 12 points, eight rebounds, and two assists, with a 33.0 three-point percentage.

Here are the players who have achieved that status:

Player---------------Season-----Age / Year-----Team-----PTS/36-----REB/36-----AST/36-----PER-------FG%-------2P%-------3P%-------eFG%
Kelly Olynyk--------2013-14----22 / 1st--------BOS------15.6--------9.4----------2.8---------15.2------46.6%-----50.0%-----35.1%-----50.6%
Kevin Love----------2010-11----22 / 3rd--------MIN------20.4--------15.3---------2.5---------24.3-----47.0%-----48.3%-----41.7%-----51.3%
Dirk Nowitzki--------2001-02----23 / 4th--------DAL------22.2--------9.4----------2.3---------24.1-----47.7%-----50.8%-----39.7%-----53.2%
Kevin Garnett-------1999-90----23 / 5th--------MIN------20.6--------10.6---------4.5---------23.6-----49.7%-----50.4%-----37.0%-----50.7%
Chris Webber--------1996-97----23 / 4th--------WSB-----18.5--------9.5----------4.2---------21.8-----51.8%-----53.5%-----39.7%-----54.3%
Kevin Love-----------2009-10----21 / 2nd-------MIN------17.7--------13.8---------2.9---------20.7-----45.0%-----47.4%-----33.0%-----51.3%
Larry Bird------------1979-80----23 / 1st--------BOS------21.3--------10.4--------4.5----------20.5-----47.4%-----48.1%-----40.6%-----49.4%
Antoine Walker------1998-99----22 / 3rd--------BOS------18.2--------8.3---------3.0----------17.0-----41.2%-----42.6%-----36.9%-----45.6%
Josh McRoberts------2010-11----23 / 4th--------IND------12.0--------8.6---------3.4----------16.0------54.7%-----57.7%-----38.3%-----57.6%
Spencer Hawes------2008-09----20 / 2nd--------SAC------14.0--------8.7---------2.4----------13.0-----46.6%-----48.6%-----34.8%-----49.1%
What a list, huh?

While Olynyk's PER isn't in the same league as players like Dirk, KG, Bird, and Love, it still says something that he put himself on this exclusive list as a rookie.

In fact, Olynyk and Bird are the only rookies on the list, further establishing the point that KO's rookie year was special -- maybe even more so than we give it credit for.

Now, I know what you're thinking: "So, you're saying that Olynyk could be the next Dirk!?"

No, not at all. KO simply does not have the elite Hall of Fame skill level of Dirk, but what can be derived from this data is that Olynyk has a low chance of becoming a "bust." No player who put up the aforementioned numbers at a young age went on to fail in the NBA, and all of them are or were effective players.

Olynyk is probably closer to the "Hawes/McRoberts" end of the spectrum, but he is definitely further ahead than they were during their rookie seasons.

Big men who can battle down low for rebounds, drain threes from the perimeter, and pass at a high level are rare in the NBA. Olynyk's skill-set makes him one of the more unique bigs in the league, which might be one reason why it's so difficult to think of similar players.

As Kelly Olynyk enters year two of his professional career, fans should forget about making comparisons and instead look forward to another year of development for a young and promising Boston Celtics big man.





bob
MY NOTE:  Anytime the defensively-challenged PER is included in a statistical proof it tends to dim the lights in my eyes (what does it say about an offensive-oriented player like Spencer Hawes that his offensively-oriented PER was still a pathetic 13.0?) but the rest is interesting in that they are raw, normalized numbers.  Kelly started off slow last year.  A combination of not being mentally or physically ready for the bigger, stronger, faster players in the NBA and an ankle sprain that sat him for a few weeks made the first half of his rookie season forgettable.  There were people, eve here on this board, I believe, who were saying the slow, earthbound white boy should be traded.  Then, it clicked for him, a week or two before the all-star game.  The game slowed down.  He started to see repetitive patterns and was quicker on his rotations.  His jitters left and he started hitting the shots he hit at Gonzaga and in summer league.  His last two months, in my opinion, were outstanding.  I'll bet, if we did mid-season splits and looked at his numbers then, the second half would look MUCH better.  The first half really diluted the season-ending numbers.  Sully had a great first half of the season and then hurt his paw and his game suffered.  Kelly was the mirror opposite.  This year, and next, will be big for Kelly.  He's going to be scouted much more extensively now and, while he won't get the rookie calls blown on him, he will be defended, and attacked, more effectively and efficiently.  Not only don't I think Kelly will be a bust, I think he's has the potential to be a very, very good player in the NBA.  Dirk 2.0?  Ok that's unfair, Dirk's going into the HOF, but pretty damn good.  Not bad for a #16 and a 2nd round pick, which is what Danny gave up to get him at #13.




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Post by kdp59 Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:32 pm

Yep Bob, he might end up being one of those guys you always underestimate, then he outplays you in the game.

his outside and mid range shooting certainly makes his short arms less of a problem on offense in the NBA.

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Post by Sam Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:32 pm

Agreed about the PER tripe.  As for becoming an all-star, who cares?  Will he become a valuable role player?  In my book, a role player is someone who excels at a particular facet or facets of the game...and whether or not he becomes an all-star is largely a function of numbers (i.e., the number of other candidates).  There have been hall-of-famers like K.C. Jones and Frank Ramsey who never made an all-star team; and there have been all-stars who were selected only so their teams would have a representative.

So, while I applaud the simple binary nature of the response categories, I'd have to add a third: Why should it matter?

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Post by bobheckler Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:17 pm

sam wrote:Agreed about the PER tripe.  As for becoming an all-star, who cares?  Will he become a valuable role player?  In my book, a role player is someone who excels at a particular facet or facets of the game...and whether or not he becomes an all-star is largely a function of numbers (i.e., the number of other candidates).  There have been hall-of-famers like K.C. Jones and Frank Ramsey who never made an all-star team; and there have been all-stars who were selected only so their teams would have a representative.

So, while I applaud the simple binary nature of the response categories, I'd have to add a third: Why should it matter?

Sam


sam,


I considered adding that as a 3rd choice but felt that the selection to an all-star berth, whether by the fans or by the coaches, is a measurement of success that can/should stand by itself. It's not the most important measurement, from a team's perspective, but it does recognize a player for his impact on the game and, presumably, on his team's fortunes. He's either having a year that makes fans around the league pay attention to him or it's the professional eyes of the all-star team's coaches that are liking him. It also separates him from 99% of the role players, who provide valuable services to their teams but don't make the all-star team. Shane Battier never made an all-star game, but had a very nice career. Making the all-star team means you're not just playing well, it means you are a leader on your team, even if it's just your fans that are voting for you.



bob


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Post by swish Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:55 pm

All players are role players. Its just that some excel to a greater degree and are recognized as such by being honored as all stars or all league performers. It's those relative few that form the nucleus for most contending teams.

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Post by Sam Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:00 am

Bob,

I think the operative term in your last post is "measurement of success."  I submit that what may be considered a measurement of success by all-star voters may not necessarily be a measurement of success in filling roles.  I believe it's often more a measurement of notoriety.  And I definitely believe that it's seldom a suitable measurement of success for players on Celtics teams.  It's how they contribute to their team's success that is much more relevant.

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