Who Will Have A Bigger Impact? Olynyk or Sullinger?

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Who will have a bigger impact on the Celtics? Kelly or Sully?

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Post by bobheckler Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:47 pm

Two players, both play 4/5.  One could claim they're redundant and, therefore, one of them is disposable in a trade.

I think this would be a good question to keep asking throughout the season as they progress individually and as the team's identity starts to burn in with repetition, and increase or decrease their respective impacts.  The answer you give today may not be the one you give in February, and that'd be ok.  Remember February of last year?  You wouldn't have given a plugged nickel for Kelly then and maybe something will flip you this year later.  Feel free to explain, in your own words, your choice.

Another pair that would be good to do this with would be Bradley and Smart, but I'm going to give Smart more time to get his feet wet first.  Neither Kelly nor Sully are brand spanking new rookies.

Blakely and Draper discussed this.  Here's their transcript and a link to the video.  What do you think, after two games?




http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/jump-ball-who-has-bigger-impact-sullinger-or-olynyk


Welcome to "Jump Ball", a new segment on CSNNE's Celtics Pregame Live presented by Ace Ticket and CSNNE.com, where Kyle Draper and A. Sherrod Blakely take opposite sides on a Celtics-related topic. To see the debate, watch tonight at 7 p.m.

Make your case below by leaving a comment, or do so via social media on Facebook.

Today's question: Who will make a bigger impact this season, Kelly Olynyk or Jared Sullinger?

ARGUMENT A (Kyle Draper):
This is a tough question because I believe both players have long careers ahead of them and both will contribute big minutes for the Celtics this season. But if I had to pick one it would be Jared Sullinger.

Sullinger gives the Celtics something no one else on the roster can; a low-post presence. We have yet to see what kind of dominant low-post scorer Sullinger can be. But that's not his fault. Brad Stevens' offense doesn't feature one person. It's more of a balanced attack where everyone gets their touches and looks. I would like to see one game where the Celtics force feed Sullinger in the post and just watch him go to work. He has the body, and the footwork to be dangerous down low.

We did see glimpses last season of how Sullinger can control a game with his work in the paint. In a January game against the Raptors, Sullinger was a beast, scoring 25 points and grabbing 20 rebounds. What made that night even more impressive was he took only two 3-pointers. He was 4-for-6 inside the paint and went to the line 14 times.

Sullinger's low=post skills were on display again in a road game against Sacramento on Feb. 7 He stood toe-to-toe with DeMarcus Cousins, scored 31 points and grabbed 16 rebounds. According to NBA stats, 64.5 percent of Sullinger's points in that game came in the paint.

While those are just two games, he has shown stretches of consistency. Last season, he finished with 22 double-doubles, including six straight in one stretch. The 22 double-doubles were tied for 35th in the league. But when you look closer at the numbers you'll see Sullinger was able to accomplish that in just 27.6 minutes per game. Thirty-one of the 34 players who had as many or more double-doubles than Sullinger last season played more minutes than the Celtics forward. That tells me Sullinger is maximizing the time he gets on the floor. Given more minutes and touches he could be a double-double machine.

The NBA big man may be evolving, with less focus on scoring in the post and more on stretching the floor, but Sullinger has shown he can score both ways. Those who criticize him for shooting 3-pointeers, only do so because he's so good in the post. So, even his most vocal critics agree he has better than average, maybe even elite-level skills inside. With the Celtics set to give major minutes to their young players, I expect we'll see more of Sullinger. He has a unique skill set for this team and that's why he'll make a bigger impact than Kelly Olynyk this year.

***

ARGUMENT B (A. Sherrod Blakely):
Celtics fans have every reason to be excited about the promise of Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger.

But in terms of impact this season, you have to give the slight edge to Olynyk.

For starters, there's the body.

He's 7-feet tall and can play both power forward and center against most, if not all, NBA lineups.

Sullinger is a talented but under-sized power forward at 6-9, which limits his use in the middle to certain lineups (read: small). Coach Brad Stevens has already said if he's on the floor with Brandon Bass, Sullinger would play center.

Olynyk doesn't have such limitations.

And then there's conditioning.

With Olynyk, it's a non-issue.

By no means should we expect him to be in a triathlon or anything like that. Still, when it comes to whether he can play extended minutes, Boston has no concerns with Olynyk.

Now Sullinger, that's a different story.

To his credit, he did a solid job of losing weight this summer and does look to have a little more pep in his step.

But because it has been an issue in the past, the Celtics can't be totally confident that it won't become an area of concern again at some point down the road.

But let's shift away from talking about the body and get down to the body of work.

As Boston looks to establish better spacing on the floor, Olynyk is a slightly better 3-point shooter than Sullinger, who nailed 26.9 percent of his 3s last season, compared to Olynyk's 35.1 percent.

More telling is when you compare their true shooting percentage, which factors in the value of 3-pointers along with free throws.

Olynyk's true shooting percentage is 54.6 percent, compared to Sullinger's 49.7.

And while both are considered good passers, Olynyk comes out ahead in this as well when you look at his assist ratio over 100 possessions per game (14.1), in comparison to Sullinger (9.6).

Rebounding is the one area where Sullinger wipes out Olynyk, right? I mean, he did average 8.1 rebounds per game compared to Olynyk's 5.2 average.

But upon closer inspection, the rebounding gap isn't as wide considering a more telling statistic - the percentage of rebounds while on the floor.

Sullinger cleans up 16.4 percent of the boards when he's on the floor, while Olynyk isn't far behind with 14.9 percent.

And the role that momentum plays can't be discounted. Olynyk finished the final month of the season playing his best basketball, averaging 16.6 ponts and 7.3 rebounds per game in April.

That carried over into his play for the Canadian National team.

We have seen the Celtics play three times thus far this season - two scrimmages at the TD Garden and a preseason game against Philadelphia on Monday.

There are only two Celtics who were victorious in all three games.

One of them was Olynyk.

And the other?

It was Marcus Smart.

So, as much as we may go around and around in terms of who will make the bigger impact, it always comes back to winning - something Olynyk is doing a better job of right now than Sullinger.





bob




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Post by Matty Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:21 pm

In my mind I see sully as our starting 4... and only a 4..

I see k.o. more as a high quality 4/5 backup. Not that he couldn't start, just that I think he could get starter like minutes and be quite effective.

For tge time being I don't want one or the other, rather I want both.. Both will have big roles for boston this year..

Same with smart... b/u guard and first guard off the bench for bradley and Rondo is my ideal situation for smart for the next few years..
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Post by beat Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:24 pm

Sully

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Post by cowens/oldschool Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:30 pm

Sully

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Post by gyso Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:09 pm

Please, may I just keep both?

I voted "Other"

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Post by Sam Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:25 am

First, I believe Sully is best suited to a low post, lunch pail  type of impact.  Kelly seems more clearly headed toward a "take charge" role—perhaps (and I'm not comparing the two) a Havlicekian Jack of all trades but taller.  And a "take charge" type of player has a broader impact on all his teammates than a lunch pail type.  However, Sully could easily achieve more extensive impact in the low post than Kelly at whatever position(s) he winds up playing.

Tough call.  It could easily be a matter of which achieves more defensive impact.  That's a work in progress for both of them.

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