The Beloved Three-pointer

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Post by bobheckler Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:00 pm

swish wrote:
bobheckler wrote:If the 3 ptr produces the superior eFG and it is no more complicated than that,  then why were the game scores pre-three ball higher than they are today with the bigger, faster, stronger athletes who are getting more rest between games, flying charter flights and not allowed as much contact defensively?



bob


.

bob

It's all about field goal attempts.
                            PER TEAM AVERAGE PER GAME
1960-61--  fga 109.4, points 118.1
1970-71--  fga 98.0,   points 112.4
1980-81-- fga  88.4,   points 108.1
1990-91-- fga  87.2,   points  106.3
2000-01-- fga  80.6,  points  94.8
2010-11-- fga  81.2,  points  99.6
2013-14-- fga  83.0,  points  101.0

swish


Swish,

And I'll bet a much higher percentage of those fgas were taken at or near the rim rather from distance.  In other words, a fga from 2 1/2 feet is better than one from 25 feet.  They ran to the front of the rim.  Nowadays they run to the corner or trot up and pull up at 23' for a 3pter, a much more passive approach that doesn't attack the defense.  That is because the NBA has chosen to reward players for playing away from the basket.  When you are rewarded for running 94' to the rim, the first team to get there wins the possession.  When you are rewarded for running 72' and waiting to see if the ball is kicked back your way, that's what you do.  That takes time off the clock and reduces total number of possessions.  If fgas are down it is because the 3 point shot favors a style of play that is slower and more deliberate,  which reduces the final score.



bob



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Post by k_j_88 Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:34 pm

There is no logical reason for anyone to shoot that far away from the basket. The 3-point line is merely a catalyst that enables laziness. As Sam has already mentioned, a missed 3 point shot doesn't just mean a miss for you, it can also mean easy points for the other team in transition. It has a negative impact every time you give the other team what amounts to free points while you're not getting any.


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Post by swish Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:37 pm

bob

No 3 point fga's in 70-71 and attempts dropped from 109.4 to 98.0. Only 2 3 point attempts per team per game in 80-81 and attempts dropped to 88.4

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Post by Sloopjohnb Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:09 pm

"Nowadays, I think teams are quicker to get back defensively than was true in the earlier days of the league..."

Absolutely. Doc's Celtics often did not seriously try for offensive rebounds preferring instead to sprint back and present a well organized defense. I remember the Knicks of the early 70's would do this since they knew that they couldn't contend with the younger legs of the Celtics on the offensive boards.

Doc often used a small ball lineup in crunch time with Posey, Pierce, Garnett, Eddie House and Ray Allen, five excellent perimeter shooters. So if they ran their sets correctly offensive rebounds were somewhat moot since they hit a high percentage of their shots and they maintained excellent court balance to protect against opponents' fastbreaks.

This small ball lineup reminded me of the early 70's Knicks who likewise put five smart guys on the court who were excellent perimeter threats.

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Post by Sloopjohnb Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:16 pm

"There is no logical reason for anyone to shoot that far away from the basket. "

I think there is in as much as long range shooting has improved dramatically due to the three pointer.  It used to be that a guy hitting about 30% of his threes would be considered an excellent three point shooter  Now there are three point shooters who hit in the mid to high 40's.

I agree that many teams rely excessively on the three but beyond FG % the three can be exactly the right shot at the right moment. Back in the dark ages of the three, Larry Bird used it to cut out an opponent's heart and hand it to him on a gold platter. In 1981's final's game six he drained one right in front of the Houston bench to put end any hope of a successful rally. I'm sure it's on youtube some where and you can see the Houston bench guys just deflate after that shot. The entire Houston team knew it was over.

Bird did the same thing in 1986's finals game six again against the Rockets.

In the hands of a player who knows how to use it judiciously, the three is a really effective--and entertaining--weapon.



Last edited by Sloopjohnb on Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Shamrock1000 Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:21 pm

Sloopjohnb wrote:"There is no logical reason for anyone to shoot that far away from the basket. "

I think there is in as much as long range shooting has improved dramatically due to the three pointer.  It used to be that a guy hitting about 30% of his threes would be considered an excellent three point shooter  Now there are three point shooters who hit in the mid to high 40's.


Yes, exactly. Earlier in this thread, I posted a link to a Grantland article that discusses the efficiency of the 3-pt shot and the possible consequences of extending the line. I will post it again so people won't need to find my earlier post. It is here:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/is-it-time-to-move-the-nba-3-point-line-back/

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Post by swish Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:25 pm

The 2007-08 Celtic team that had a 66-16 record benefited greatly from the 3 point shot that year. The team took a total of 6286 shots of which 1564 were 3 pointers ( 24.9% ). 4 players accounted for 89.1 % of those shots. And did they light it up from downtown. Allen .398, Pierce .392, House .393, Posey .380. Just wondering how many Celtic fans were critical of the 3 point shot that glorious year.
By the way, this past season the Spurs did quite well from 3 point land also. 25.7 % of their total shots were from 3 point land.

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Post by Sam Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:33 pm

In the mid-nineties, the NBA shortened the three point distance by nearly two feet.  Within three years, it had reverted to its original figure.  I'm sure that making the distance even greater will dramatically increase the aesthetic beauty of the shot, as we will then be able to witness a plethora of graceful clangers.  Perhaps statistics will be introduced to categorize the clanging styles: parabolas, line drives, 10 points for three-pointers stuck between the rim and the backboard, etc., etc., zzzzzzzzzzzzzz........

At some point in the near-future, I expect the NBA to tap into a previously unutilized source of players.  Shotputters!!!!!  See him dip.  Watch the grace with which he "puts" the ball.  Actually, there's no such thing as putting the shot.  One heaves the shot.  And it isn't a shot.  It's a metal ball.  I like to call it "air bocce."

You think the new Celtics uniforms are a little strange?  Wait until all players are dressed in polka dot onesies, ruffled collars, floppy shoes, and big red noses overlooking lipstick-tattoed mouths.

Reports remain unconfirmed that Dr. James Naismith foresaw this lunacy and requested that, sometime around 2020, he be included in a Mars probe and left there.

Sam


Last edited by sam on Tue Dec 16, 2014 1:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by bobheckler Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:20 pm

swish wrote:bob

No 3 point fga's in 70-71 and attempts dropped from 109.4 to 98.0. Only 2  3 point attempts per team per game in 80-81 and attempts dropped to  88.4

swish


Swish,

That's 2 years out of how many?  Sounds more like identification of anomalies and outliers than of a trend.  My father used to say "the exception proves the rule".  What he was saying is "if something is accurate except for the rare exception, then it is generally reliable".



bob



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Post by swish Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:50 pm

bob

I just used the the first year of each decade. Check for yourself for all the years.

Here's all the data that you need to check out All THE YEARS.  Start in 1959 and compare the fga's versus points scored and you'll see that the trend of the points closely follows the path of the fga's.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html?redir

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Post by Sloopjohnb Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:18 pm

"Sloop,

Although I think Pitino is among the top 20 or so greatest coaches the game of basketball has ever known, I have to agree with your statement there.

I always thought Obie was underrated and underappreciated too.  He and Harter found a way to utilize what they had with that '01 - '02 club, even though it was far from loaded with top talent. They saw the three could really add some scoring punch, and they had players who could at least do an adequate job of taking the shot. At the same time they got that group to buy into a defensive mentality. Great coaching job.

Regards"

I was a big O'Brien fan as well.  Too bad it didn't work out for him with the Pacers. With the job Dick Harter did to revive the defense you can see why Bird wanted him as an assistant in Indiana.

Pitino absolutely knows his stuff but he impaled himself on his own ego in Boston.

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Post by NYCelt Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:35 pm

Sloopjohnb wrote:"Sloop,

Although I think Pitino is among the top 20 or so greatest coaches the game of basketball has ever known, I have to agree with your statement there.

I always thought Obie was underrated and underappreciated too.  He and Harter found a way to utilize what they had with that '01 - '02 club, even though it was far from loaded with top talent. They saw the three could really add some scoring punch, and they had players who could at least do an adequate job of taking the shot. At the same time they got that group to buy into a defensive mentality. Great coaching job.

Regards"

I was a big O'Brien fan as well.  Too bad it didn't work out for him with the Pacers.  With the job Dick Harter did to revive the defense you can see why  Bird wanted him as an assistant in Indiana.

Pitino absolutely knows his stuff but he impaled himself on his own ego in Boston.

Well said.

I think ultimately, the Boston fiasco and a couple of personal missteps taught Pitino the humility he needed.  As odd as it seems, his wipeout in Boston probably made him rethink things and helped him take the next step to the elite level where he is now. A little humble pie can go a long way.
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Post by swish Mon Dec 15, 2014 11:59 pm

As a lifetime Providence College fan I caught Pitino early in his career at providence. Great coach, Great recruiter, but in my opinion, a B S artist when it came to leveling with his players and the general public. Would have been a great SNAKE OIL salesman.

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Post by beat Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:13 pm

As for the 3.... at least we don't have a red, white, and blue ball.

earlier someone mentioned that in the "old" days teams tented to take shots much more earlier in the shot clock. Like at the first good look.

Just to expand on that with this thought. If you pass up a good look from 15 feet with 15+ seconds on the clock. Few bad things can happen if you don't take it..such as a turnover, rushed shot, or terrible shot, or no shot at all. Personally I'll take my chances on a wide open look from 15 feet anytime, even if Rondo is launching it.

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Post by k_j_88 Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:36 pm

Reliance on 3 point shooting as a main cog of your offense is just bad. It's not reliable. You need to have a diversified attack. I disagree with Brad's notion that everyone should be taking threes. I'd only have a few players taking them on a regular basis.


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Post by Sam Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:33 am

Outside, I'm not sure what you mean about my distaste for the three coloring my opinion on the subject. Of course it colors my opinion on the subject. Why wouldn't it? I think you're really commenting on the reasons for my distaste for the three. I've clearly stated that I believe it adds an element of laziness to the game and can gum up the rhythms and flow of the game (which are incredibly important to me).

As a rule, where the Celtics rank in given statistic proves nothing to me because that's as much a function of the performances of other teams as it is an indicator of the Celtics' performance. Aside from W/L percentage at the end of the season, if I measured the performance of the Celtics, using other teams as a barometer, I'd have committed suicide long ago because the Celts have never had a league scoring champion.

Since before the beginning of the season, there has been a plethora of stories about how Brad wants to feature the three and how he has counseled his bigs to emphasize the three as a major part of their games. To me, that is an directional indicator of his intent that transcends statistics relative to other teams.

But, if you want a stat, here's one. This season, the Celtics are virtually tied for sixth worst in the league in terms of the number of missed threes per game. I don't really call continued emphasis on threes being very responsive to results (or lack of them).

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