Is Center really the biggest problem the Celtics have?

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Post by bobheckler Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:35 pm

http://redsarmy.com/2015/01/27/is-center-really-the-biggest-problem-the-celtics-have/



Is Center really the biggest problem the Celtics have?
Alex Kungu



Is Center really the biggest problem the Celtics have? Zeller1
Is Center really the biggest problem the Celtics have?


Most Celtics fans will tell you that the first problem we need to address with this team is getting a “rim-protecting center.” I was one of those guys, but it got me wondering how Tyler Zeller stacks up statistically among some of the other centers in the game. So I took all of the centers on current playoff teams in the East Coast and compared their body of work to Tyler Zeller.

Right off the bat the first thing we looked at was how big Zeller is compared to all the playoff centers. This list included Al Horford, Marcin Gortat, Jonas Valanciunas, Joakim Noah, Timofey Mosgov, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Andersen, and Brook Lopez. Out of all of these guys, Zeller was only one of 4 guys that was actually a true 7 footer, and he was the fourth heaviest only behind Lopez, Pachulia, and Valanciunas. Also at 25 years old, he’s younger than all the other centers except for Valanciunas. In terms of wingspan, he does rank at the bottom of the pack, but he has right around the same wingspan as Al Horford, something we’ll touch on later. So all things aside, Tyler Zeller at least has the physical makeup of a legit NBA center.

Let’s look at some of the statistics now. We looked at Points, Rebounds, Blocks, and PER to determine how far off Zeller was from the playoff centers, here’s what we got. Zeller ranks 5th in points behind Horford, Lopez, Valanciunas, and Gortat. He ranks 8th in rebounding (only ahead of Chris Andersen) and 8th in blocks (only ahead Zaza Pachulia). Most will credit the lack of blocks to his unimpressive wingspan, but keep in mind that the short-armed Horford ranks 4th (1.4 bpg). In terms of PER, Zeller does rank 4th behind Horford, Valanciunas, and Lopez which speaks volumes to his efficiency.

But where does that leave us after all is said and done? Although Zeller has the physical tools to be successful, his defense is still a step behind, and he’s not much of a rim protector (yet better than advertised). At 25, one could argue he could still develop, find a way to be an excellent team defender and always put himself in great position –  like Al Horford does. You could also argue that all of those centers have highly efficient frontcourt mates that help in defending and rebounding. I’m talking about Paul Milsap, Nene, Amir Johnson, Pau Gasol, Kevin Love, Chris Bosh, etc. As good as Jared Sullinger can be on the boards, it’s fair to say that he’s still not on the level as most of those guys quite yet. Though you can also turn it around from Sullinger’s point of view and say the same thing about Zeller. Though Boston is one of the worst in points allowed in the paint (ranked 28th), they are about average when it comes to Defensive Efficiency and Rebounding Rate. Where they really struggle is on the offensive end; they rank 3rd in Pace, 23rd in offensive efficiency, 20th in true shooting percentage, and 18th in effective Field Goal percentage. This basically says they have no one that constantly scoring for them. If they were able to add a consistent scorer to this team, chances are they would be a playoff team, and the talk of getting a new center wouldn’t feel that serious.


When you look at the Celtics roster one thing you see is a lack of playmakers or guys that can either consistently create for themselves or others. Going into the trade deadline or offseason that needs to be our main objective. Though having a great center would be nice, without a real playmaker we won’t be able to expand on the potential we have already. So to the people who believe getting a defensive-minded center is our first problem, the numbers do say otherwise.




bob
MY NOTE:  Do the numbers lie?  Without eyeballs on the game I can't know.


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Post by Sam Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:51 pm

It's true that the lack of a real playmaker is stretching the abilities of guys like Zeller, Bradley and Crowder to try to create shots for themselves. Just as Zeller would probably be more comfortable playing backup center against other backup centers, Turner would probably thrive more as a combo guard/sixth man than as a starting "1." And, as much as Avery Bradley can get hot or make great shots at the end of games, he can also get cold or kick away chances to put games away rather than having them go to the wire.

With Prince on the team, I think the SF slot is being manned pretty well. Sully and Bass (regardless of when Olynyk returns) are a very productive PF duo. I'm also happy with Zeller at center, although he has question marks backing him up. Maybe Brad will give Shav a shot; it couldn't hurt.

That leaves the "1" and "2" position as the weakest on the team right now. Those are two positions I think could be filled very nicely, wherever the Celtics land in the draft, whereas I'm skeptical of whether the Celtics' balls will bounce the right way to land a primo center.

Sam



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Post by worcester Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:55 pm

It's way easier to draft or trade for a point guard or shooting guard than a center.

Nuff said.
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Post by kdp59 Thu Jan 29, 2015 7:31 am

It wouldn't surprise me to see Stevens eventually move Turner to SF as a point forward and primary ball handler soon.

to get Smart in the starting lineup with Bradley in the backcourt. Smart is the secondary ball handler in that case.

much in the way the move of Bass over Zeller at center/PF was made this road trip.

I would like to see a starting lineup of

Sully
Bass
Turner
Bradley
Smart

with a second team of

Zeller
Kelly O
Prince (Crowder)
Thornton Young)
Pressey ( Primary ball handler for the second team)





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Post by Sam Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:39 pm

Kdp,

Interesting thought about moving turner to SF. He's a pretty good rebounder, although some of his boards are the product of his being taller than his opponents—an advantage he would probably lose at SF. But they do need more point production at the SF position; and, as much as I like Crowder's energy, he's barely an afterthought in the Celtics' offense and seldom gets touches.

The all-star marathon could easily produce a lot of interesting developments, with Brad watching quadruple features in the film room and Danny hatching Machiavellian schemes in his lair.

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Post by wide clyde Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:45 pm

Moving guys around this year is fine, but to get the rebuild moving forward as fast as possible I think that center is still the Cs biggest need. In my opinion, it has been their biggest need since the day that Perkins rolled out of town.

This is not to say that I thought that Perkins was a great center, but he was a very good center for what the Cs needed at that time. Garnett, Pierce and Allen supplied enough offense that Perkins only needed to get a few baskets per game (which he did even if the ones he did get were not all very pretty). He was tough and strong, did not complain about scoring opportunities and shots, worked great with Garnett to protect the lane, rebounded fairly well and played good defense.

The Big Three needed a Perkins type guy after Perkins left, and now in the last two years the rebuilding team has needed even a better version of Perkins. Next year's team will need the better-than-Perkins type center as well. This guy will need to be able to protect the lane, rebound and score.

I do like Zeller, and he may turn into the first string center because he continues to improve, but I still believe that a more rough, tough, more physical type guy will be needed as well. This is why I hope that Ainge can find a way to move up in the draft this year to get a shot at one of the big guys who one may become our future center.

It is very hard to argue with worcester's statement that guards and forwards are easier to find.

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Post by NYCelt Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:01 pm

kdp59 wrote:It wouldn't surprise me to see Stevens eventually move Turner to SF as a point forward and primary ball handler soon.

to get Smart in the starting lineup with Bradley in the backcourt. Smart is the secondary ball handler in that case.

much in the way the move of Bass over Zeller at center/PF was made this road trip.

I would like to see a starting lineup of

Sully
Bass
Turner
Bradley
Smart

with a second team of

Zeller
Kelly O
Prince (Crowder)
Thornton Young)
Pressey ( Primary ball handler for the second team)






Agree for the most part, especially on Turner.  I can't understand why he hasn't already been moved to SF and Smart to PG.

Maybe Zeller over Bass on that first unit.

As for our biggest need being center, I think our biggest need is everything.  I think there will be an excellent chance of our drafting an NBA ready center this year, the draft should be fairly deep at that position.  If we simply went with the best available and most NBA ready athlete, regardless of position, I wouldn't argue with that strategy either.  My personal preference would be to take a center, then guard (probable second deepest spot in the 2015 draft), with whatever our two highest picks turn out to be.
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Post by worcester Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:08 pm

Pick a center then a pg..my choices too.
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Post by NYCelt Thu Jan 29, 2015 10:28 pm

worcester wrote:Pick a center then a pg..my choices too.

Well there it is then.  If Danny would just listen to the two of us, we could get this ship turned around fast.

What do you want to tackle next?  I say we go after a cure for the common cold and fix the ozone layer in the morning, then see if we can get backstage passes to the next Victoria's Secret fashion show after lunch.  Or, possibly, reverse that schedule.
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Post by kdp59 Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:38 am

since we're talking the draft....here's my first combined player rankings (draftnet, draft express and CBS sports top 100).

I think we'd be at #8 and 24 right now

Rank ---Pos----Player----------Hgt----Wgt---Age----School
1-------C------Jahlil Okafor-----6-11----270--19-----Duke
2------PG----Emmanuel Mudiay--6-5--200--19
3------PF---Karl-Anthony Towns--6-11--255-19---Kentucky
4------SF---Stanley Johnson-----6-7----245--19---Arizona
5------SG---D'Angelo Russell----6-5----180--19---Ohio St
6------SF----Justise Winslow----6-6-----225--19---Duke
7-------C-----Myles Turner------6-11----240--19---Texas
8-------C----Willie Cauley-Stein--7-0----242--21---Kentucky
9-------PF---Kristaps Porzingis---6-11---220--19---Int
10------PF---Kevon Looney------6-9-----220---19--UCLA
11-----SG---Mario Hezonja------6-7-----195---20---Int
12-----SF----Kelly Oubre Jr------6-7-----200---19---Kansas
13-----PF----Montrezl Harrell----6-8-----240 ---21---Louisville
14-----PF-----Trey Lyles---------6-10----235----19---Kentucky
15-----SG----Caris LeVert-------6-6-----185----20---Michigan
16------C----Frank Kaminsky----7-0-----242----22---Wisconsin
17-----PF----Cliff Alexander------6-8----240 ----19----Kansas
18-----SF----Sam Dekker-------6-9-----230-----21----Wisconsin
19-----PF----Bobby Portis------6-11-----242----20 -----Arkansas
20-----PG----Delon Wright-----6-5------190----22 -----Utah
21-----PG----Jerian Grant------6-5------204----22------Notre Dame
22-----SF----Justin Anderson--6-6------228----21------Virginia
23-----SF---Rondae Hollis- Jefferson---6-7---220---20---Arizona
24-----SG----R J Hunter-------6-6------190----21------Georgia St
25-----PF----Christian Wood----6-11----220---19-------UNLV
26-----C------Jake Poelti--------7-0------235---19------Utah
27-----SG----Devin Booker-----6-6-----206----19------Kentucky
28-----PG-----Tyrus Jones-----6-1------190----19------Duke
29-----PF----Damian Jones----6-10-----248----20-----Vanderbilt
30-----PG-----Terry Rozier-----6-1------190----21------Louisville
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Post by bobheckler Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:55 am

kdp59 wrote:since we're talking the draft....here's my first combined player rankings (draftnet, draft express and CBS sports top 100).

I think we'd be at #8 and 24 right now

Rank ---Pos----Player----------Hgt----Wgt---Age----School
1-------C------Jahlil Okafor-----6-11----270--19-----Duke
2------PG----Emmanuel Mudiay--6-5--200--19
3------PF---Karl-Anthony Towns--6-11--255-19---Kentucky
4------SF---Stanley Johnson-----6-7----245--19---Arizona
5------SG---D'Angelo Russell----6-5----180--19---Ohio St
6------SF----Justise Winslow----6-6-----225--19---Duke
7-------C-----Myles Turner------6-11----240--19---Texas
8-------C----Willie Cauley-Stein--7-0----242--21---Kentucky
9-------PF---Kristaps Porzingis---6-11---220--19---Int
10------PF---Kevon Looney------6-9-----220---19--UCLA
11-----SG---Mario Hezonja------6-7-----195---20---Int
12-----SF----Kelly Oubre Jr------6-7-----200---19---Kansas
13-----PF----Montrezl Harrell----6-8-----240 ---21---Louisville
14-----PF-----Trey Lyles---------6-10----235----19---Kentucky
15-----SG----Caris LeVert-------6-6-----185----20---Michigan
16------C----Frank Kaminsky----7-0-----242----22---Wisconsin
17-----PF----Cliff Alexander------6-8----240 ----19----Kansas
18-----SF----Sam Dekker-------6-9-----230-----21----Wisconsin
19-----PF----Bobby Portis------6-11-----242----20 -----Arkansas
20-----PG----Delon Wright-----6-5------190----22 -----Utah
21-----PG----Jerian Grant------6-5------204----22------Notre Dame
22-----SF----Justin Anderson--6-6------228----21------Virginia
23-----SF---Rondae Hollis- Jefferson---6-7---220---20---Arizona
24-----SG----R J Hunter-------6-6------190----21------Georgia St
25-----PF----Christian Wood----6-11----220---19-------UNLV
26-----C------Jake Poelti--------7-0------235---19------Utah
27-----SG----Devin Booker-----6-6-----206----19------Kentucky
28-----PG-----Tyrus Jones-----6-1------190----19------Duke
29-----PF----Damian Jones----6-10-----248----20-----Vanderbilt
30-----PG-----Terry Rozier-----6-1------190----21------Louisville


Kdp,

I think I would be quite happy with either Cauley-Stein or Porzingis.


bob


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Post by NYCelt Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:12 am

If we do end up in the draft range somewhere around 8 and 24, we're going to get two shots at landing a very good big and a standout guard.

I hope we keep and use these picks.

We should be able to select two players who will be game ready, similar to Smart. I'd like to see us save reaching for another project, like Young, for another time.
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Post by kdp59 Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:11 am

Bob,

not a fan of Porzingis myself.

he's rail thin and many think he won't be able to add much weight. he apparently also likes to play SF.

NYCelt,

I'd love to see Cauley-Stien there whn Ainge picks and I like harvey Grants son with the later pick.

I think both of those players would meet you requirements as well.

oh well, a VERY LONG TIME untul we get serious about draft postion and rankings.


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Post by wide clyde Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:12 am

Unless Porzingis is going to be a real star as a power forward, I think that getting a center is still much more important.

I, obviously, do not know much about him, but have never read that he is a center of any type even though he is 6'11".  Certainly weighing only 220 would suggest that he would get tossed around by even many of the NBAs power forwards.

The Cs already have 2 young PFs that they have been giving quality minutes to over this season and last season.  Drafting another power forward at this time would greatly de-value both Sullenger and Olynyk because they have both shown pretty well that neither can play center very well.

If they do not pick a center in the first round, there does not appear to be any first string type centers below the top ten or so prospects.

I have to believe that Ainge is going to use both of his first picks to trade up to be sure to get one of the four  potential first string guys.

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Post by NYCelt Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:19 pm

kdp59 wrote:Bob,

not a fan of Porzingis myself.

he's rail thin and many think he won't be able to add much weight. he apparently also likes to play SF.

NYCelt,

I'd love to see Cauley-Stien there whn Ainge picks and I like harvey Grants son  with the later pick.

I think both of those players would meet you requirements as well.

oh well, a VERY LONG TIME untul we get serious about draft postion and rankings.



kdp,

Agree with you on all points.

Just for the sake of discussion; If we were to walk away from the draft with Willie Cauley-Stein and Jerian Grant, I would be so happy, let's see, how do I put this...without too much detail...let's just say I would need to be wearing those adult "Depends." Both will be as ready as Smart; WCS even more so. If we somehow end up with Justise Winslow instead of one of those two, same deal.

There are several other combos that I think would also work as well. That's why I think it's so critical we hang onto and use these picks in 2015.
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Post by bobheckler Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:22 pm

wide clyde wrote:Unless Porzingis is going to be a real star as a power forward, I think that getting a center is still much more important.

I, obviously, do not know much about him, but have never read that he is a center of any type even though he is 6'11".  Certainly weighing only 220 would suggest that he would get tossed around by even many of the NBAs power forwards.

The Cs already have 2 young PFs that they have been giving quality minutes to over this season and last season.  Drafting another power forward at this time would greatly de-value both Sullenger and Olynyk because they have both shown pretty well that neither can play center very well.

If they do not pick a center in the first round, there does not appear to be any first string type centers below the top ten or so prospects.

I have to believe that Ainge is going to use both of his first picks to trade up to be sure to get one of the four  potential first string guys.


Clyde,

He's 7'0", 220# as of last summer and is only 19.

Here is his draftexpress page.  

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kristaps-Porzingis-7119/


Here is his scouting report from last year, when he just turned 19, and there was talk of him being in the draft.  




Here is analysis of him vs Barcelona this year.



Noah was listed at 230# when he was drafted.  Rudy Gobert, whom so many of us are swooning over today, was 7'2", 238#; 2" taller than Kelly Olynyk but only 3# heavier.

Maybe he has some defensive issues but they are primarily youth and strength, both of which are fixable, but his defensive potential FAR exceeds Kelly's.  I don't know what his wingspan is, they don't measure that in Europe but he is anything but alligator-armed.

6 NBA scouts at the Barcelona game, including Sam Hinkie.  

Btw, hate the music they put over the video, too dramatic for my tastes but the videos are informative.


bob



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Post by beat Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:41 am

Could not even watch him...........my eyes would not focus after looking at those turd ugly stripped uniforms.........

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Post by bobheckler Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:57 am

beat wrote:Could not even watch him...........my eyes would not focus after looking at those turd ugly stripped uniforms.........

beat


Beat,

I had no idea you were such a hound for fashion.


bob


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Post by k_j_88 Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:06 pm

Even if the Celtics had a center, I'm not sure it would automatically remedy the C's defensive woes. I think the problem lies more with a lack of a defensive culture in place. As big and as physical as Sullinger is, he plays poor post defense.

Honestly, as long as Kelly and Sully are playing major minutes (together), the C's will struggle to have consistent success on defense.



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Post by Sam Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:10 pm

KJ,

Who's that nice-looking person in your avatar?

And can she play center?

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Post by k_j_88 Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:24 pm

Sam,

My fiance. And I think she's more partial to football than basketball lol.

KJ
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Post by Sam Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:08 am

KJ,

Please wish your fiancé all the best from the board. Have you set a date?

Sam

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