My Post-Draft Synopsis

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Post by 112288 Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:08 pm

Bob,

Who did we pick?

I know he is a household name, right!

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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:11 pm

bobheckler wrote:
dboss wrote:Rambone

Every player drafted is a prospect but I would hardly considered the group mentioned to be the same caliber of prospect.

On the one hand you state that we have to accept that NBA movers and Shakerss...blah blah... blah.

Well the experts had Rozier ranked 30th overall and only the 9th best PROSPECT at the PG.  Did Danny somehow uncover a Gem?

The problem with Marcus Smart is that he cannot consistently knock down shots in the Celtics offense and he has a weak handle.  Rozier is also a horrible shooter and while his handle is better his 3 assists per game give little encouragement that he is remotely capable of running an offense.

I see NO value in this pick given team needs.

Last year I thought the Smart pick was a reach and here we are again and Danny is still reaching.  Danny Groundhog Day Ainge has struck again.

dboss


dboss,

So you consider Marcus Smart to be a bust of a pick?  Who would you have taken instead at #6?


bob


Bob my preference at 6 would have been Julius Randle nor Noah

Or I would have traded down if I had the hots for a PG

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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:15 pm

112288 wrote:
dboss wrote:
rambone wrote:DBoss: "Other players that were available at 16 include Portis, Dekker, Justin Anderson and the other PF from LSU Jarrell Martin."

Dekker went 18th
Anderson went 21st
Portis went 22nd
Martin went 25th.

Outside of Dekker, multiple teams passed on all those guys. We have to accept that the NBA movers and shakers get a lot more info than we do as fans, or even that the mock draft experts like draft express get.

Ranbone

All of those players are better than Rozier.  Every team DID not pass on them which is evidenced by the fact that they were drafted.  We do not have to accept anything.  And I am certainly not going to accept the notion that Danny knows best.  year after year he passes on players that he should have and could have drafted.  

dboss


Does  DeAndre Jordan ring a bell?  Danny let that one slip right under his nose!

112288

Yeah Jordan is another player who was highly touted as a defensive stopper and strong rebounder. I think that is the year we took JR Giddens
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Post by rambone Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:16 pm

RJ Hunter is considered one of the very best sharpshooters in this draft, better than D'Angelo Russell as a shooter, and yet Hunter shot 30.5% from three, which is almost identical to Rozier's 30.6% from 3 this year.

So why isn't Hunter considered a terrible god-awful shooter?

Shot selection.

Hunter shot 39% from 3 the year before, and Rozier shot 37% the year before.

And while Rozier is an outstanding 79% FT shooter, Hunter is an even more impressive 88% FT shooter. And college FT% is widely considered to be a better predictor than college 3 point shooting for predicting NBA 3 point shooting success.

Why? Shot selection.


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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:29 pm

sam wrote:I was wondering whether you guys were happy or sad after the #2 pick.  I wanted the Lakers to pick Russell, as I though it might make Philly more likely to trade the #3 pick to the Celtics, who could pick Okafor.

I don't know about the Celtics, but I'd probably make that trade on their behalf.  However, I'd rather have Lopez than Okafor.  I'm still not giving up on a defensive emphasis.

Sam

Sam Hunter played down here in Atlanta and since my son KJ attends Georgia State I followed the team during the year.  He is a streaky sort of shooter but has range beyond the NBA 3 point line.

Because he was the main guy at GST he took more bad shots than he should have.

He put up 7+ 3 point shots per game and shot below 30%.  Brad will really like this kid.

He was probably the best SG available if that is what you want.  I however would have drafted the SF out of Virginia Justin Anderson who was taken at 21.  He is a better shooter hitting at a 45% clip from behind the arc and he is significantly more athletic and he is stronger and has a longer wingspan with a 43"max vertical.

With the way this draft went, Danny should have been trading down.  The only really solid value pick was in the 2nd round when he drafted Mickey.

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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:32 pm

[quote="rambone"]RJ Hunter is considered one of the very best sharpshooters in this draft, better than D'Angelo Russell as a shooter, and yet Hunter shot 30.5% from three, which is almost identical to Rozier's 30.6% from 3 this year.

So why isn't Hunter considered a terrible god-awful shooter?

Shot selection.

Hunter shot 39% from 3 the year before, and Rozier shot 37% the year before.

And while Rozier is an outstanding 79% FT shooter, Hunter is an even more impressive 88% FT shooter. And college FT% is widely considered to be a better predictor than college 3 point shooting for predicting NBA 3 point shooting success.

Why? Shot selection.

you're comparing apples with oranges and grapefruits with hand gernades

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Post by sinus007 Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:59 pm

Hi,
Here is another twist of the Draft 2015.

AK
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Post by rambone Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:07 pm

Apples and oranges, eh?

you say Hunter is okay but you would have taken Justin Anderson, who went 21st.

Hunter was drafted 28th.


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Post by wide clyde Fri Jun 26, 2015 4:38 pm

Sam,

Your statement in this thread --

"If two or three draft picks of unknown quality are packaged together, they very likely add up to greater perceived value than the totality of each of the three if utilized separately. So I support the notion of using the draft picks in what might be called "trade impact bundle" form to enhance the appeal of a trade or to constitute the entire trade"

is the reason that I came away from the draft last night somewhat disappointed. With all of the draft picks that Ainge had and still has I would have made a move up in the draft to take a chance on one of the top ten picks that most folks think will make strong contributions to their new team's rotation even if having to "overpay" in draft picks.

I would have also traded one or two of the team's young players if necessary with Bradley being the first guy to go on my list.

Drafting four guys last night (unless they become important parts of trades this summer) was not my preferred way to get our team to the 50 win level for next season. It is not that some of the four will not be good players, but none of them fit our most specific need, in my opinion--a CENTER. And, it is very, very unlikely that all four of them will even be on the roster next year. And, if all four are on the 2016 roster our team will be too young (again) to make progress towards the goal of winning 50 games. If more than one of the four is making a rotational contribution, I will be quite surprised.

Two of the picks last night and some combination of other picks in the next few years could seemingly have been enough to move up to get into the top eight last night. Even the Nets picks bring no guarantees, the Cs picks are going to be in the 20s (first round) and 50s (second round) as the team gets better, the 10 other second round picks are just that - second round picks, and even the first round picks from places like Dallas are not likely to be lottery picks either either due to 'protections' or their team winning enough games to stay out of the lottery.

If nothing else, I see at least three of the four guys picked last night as 'project players' and wonder why Upshaw (certainly also a project player) was not at least picked in the second round. At least he is a CENTER project. Now, since he is going to play for the Lakers summer team, they will get first shot at him if he looks good in the summer leagues. He had to be worth the 45th pick if only to have him on the summer roster over another guy who plays the guard position.

I went to bed frustrated last night and got up this morning really mad. I hope that Ainge's picks either turn into really good players or get traded for some really good players. Maybe I needed some of Bob's sake.

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Post by rambone Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:05 pm

Word is coming out that Danny tried to trade FOUR first rounders, our two second rounders, and probably Sully just to get the 9th pick when Justise Winslow dropped.

The Hornets turned it down.

And I'm glad. Winslow is a 6'4" (barefoot) small forward with a very shaky jump shot.

As far as centers, we didn't miss out on much. Outside of the Towns and Okafor, there weren't any miracle cures for our need at center. Both WCS and Turner will get pushed around more than Zeller and KO do. It sounds crazy, but just watch. They'll get pushed around like rag dolls.

WCS was drafted 6th, which is high and suggests he's some great center. But the team that drafted him in a complete joke and in dysfunctional disarray. They almost fired Coach Karl before the draft, and ended up locking Karl out of the draft war room, and the draft process.

The guy ostensibly making the pick, Vlade Divac, has zero front office experience, and this pick, like Stauskas, was probably made by the owner, who thinks he knows basketball because his daughter's 4th grade team overachieved.


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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:41 pm

rambone

I never said Rozier was a terrible shooter. I said he was horrible shooter.

Down here in GA we actually see a lot of Louiville games and while I did not watch all of them I saw enough of Rozier to make an evaluation about his ability to knock down shots. He is very un-disciplined and takes a lot of bad shots and given his assist to turnover ratio I do not see how on earth he should have been drafted at 16. He really is a good defender so I cannot take that away from him but #16??? He probably would have been there at #28 and if he wasn't so what. He is not that good.

As far as Marcus is concerned I have rarely seen a PG with a handle as weak as his. offensively you want to suggest that he was respectable offensively. he shot .367% overall from the field. That is pretty horrible as well especially for a guy drafted at # 6.

Both of these picks reflect a reach by Danny Ainge. Trading up to draft Kelly was a reach by Danny Ainge.

I look at these players draft positions and I have yet to see the value. That does not mean they should not have been drafted. But no way in hell I use # 16 on Rozier when there are better players out there for the taking.

By the way When was the last time you heard me mention Rajon Rondo? Since you assume I miss him.

He used to play for the Celtics. F... Rajon Rondo. That's how much I miss him.

I'm no different than any other Celtics fan. I want to see this team compete for and win more championships. At the same time I have never been the type of fan not to recognize obvious problems with the quality of the team and the individual players on it.

So we can agree to disagree. If I am wrong about Rozier (notice I did not say Marcus Smart) I will be the first to admit it.

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Post by 112288 Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:45 pm

So much for having low first round picks. I assume this process will be recited over and over for the next 3 years. Yep we are in never never land....just where everyone said we needed to avoid.

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Post by Shamrock1000 Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:46 pm

They picked a couple of players I wasn't necessarily expecting. That I can live with. These guys evaluate players for a living - I read about it on the internet and watch an occasional video. The thing that bums me out most is the growing realization that Danny's so-called treasure trove of assets might not be worth as much as we have been hearing. Teams are not giving up much for middling picks. I hate to say it, but so far it has only been Danny who has given up good players for picks. And every time one of those picks is made, its 'potential' transforms into reality. Last night I learned that the 16th and 28th picks in the draft are worth the 16th and 28th picks (a long shot at an impact player).

I really hope the Nets picks are a different story and that they end up being high draft picks that turn into good players. If not, then we gave up two hall of fame players and a clutch 6th man for more middling picks that don't pan out and the right to pay Gerald Wallace 10+ million a year to keep the bench warm (writers/fans always ignore the albatross of Wallace's contract that we took on). No need to explain to me the arguments for the trade - believe me, I get it and agree overall (and still am in favor of the trade in the end). Just saying.....

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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:52 pm

rambone wrote:Word is coming out that Danny tried to trade FOUR first rounders, our two second rounders, and probably Sully just to get the 9th pick when Justise Winslow dropped.

The Hornets turned it down.

And I'm glad. Winslow is a 6'4" (barefoot) small forward with a very shaky jump shot.

As far as centers, we didn't miss out on much. Outside of the Towns and Okafor, there weren't any miracle cures for our need at center. Both WCS and Turner will get pushed around more than Zeller and KO do. It sounds crazy, but just watch. They'll get pushed around like rag dolls.

WCS was drafted 6th, which is high and suggests he's some great center. But the team that drafted him in a complete joke and in dysfunctional disarray. They almost fired Coach Karl before the draft, and ended up locking Karl out of the draft war room, and the draft process.

The guy ostensibly making the pick, Vlade Divac, has zero front office experience, and this pick, like Stauskas, was probably made by the owner, who thinks he knows basketball because his daughter's 4th grade team overachieved.


Your nuts

Winslow is a beast. Did you not watch the NCAA tourney? He made every big shot needed and was playing on a bad ankle.

You say he has a shaky jumper? Really? He shot 41.4% from 3 point land this year. Plus he can take his man off the dribble and he has an NBA ready body now, and is really good defender. He may be the steal of the draft at 10. Phil Jackson is even more stupid than Danny Ainge. From now on he will be referred to by me as the Zen Monkey. He should have drafted Winslow. If that rumor you refer to is true than Danny Ainge is a moron as well. Why would you give up 4 first rounders?

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Post by dboss Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:04 pm

One of the things that Sam mentioned is that the draft is just one vehicle for team building.

making trades and signing free agents are very much part of the rebuilding process.  it seems that for us drafting is always a crap shoot but the Spurs continue to draft the next Bruwonski and turn him into a baller.

Moving forward let's see if Danny can attract quality free agents to sign with the Celtics and not have to overpay them for their services.  Let's hope that upcoming trades will address specific needs that will bring about an improvement.

Let's hope that one or two of this year's picks turn out to be good players.

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Post by 112288 Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:55 pm

The 28th pick was a token gift thrown in by LAC. So remove that pick and what did we get for a 4 and out playoff appearance...................Rozier!

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Post by rambone Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:15 pm

dboss wrote:
rambone wrote:Word is coming out that Danny tried to trade FOUR first rounders, our two second rounders, and probably Sully just to get the 9th pick when Justise Winslow dropped.

The Hornets turned it down.

And I'm glad. Winslow is a 6'4" (barefoot) small forward with a very shaky jump shot.

As far as centers, we didn't miss out on much. Outside of the Towns and Okafor, there weren't any miracle cures for our need at center. Both WCS and Turner will get pushed around more than Zeller and KO do. It sounds crazy, but just watch. They'll get pushed around like rag dolls.

WCS was drafted 6th, which is high and suggests he's some great center. But the team that drafted him in a complete joke and in dysfunctional disarray. They almost fired Coach Karl before the draft, and ended up locking Karl out of the draft war room, and the draft process.

The guy ostensibly making the pick, Vlade Divac, has zero front office experience, and this pick, like Stauskas, was probably made by the owner, who thinks he knows basketball because his daughter's 4th grade team overachieved.


Your nuts

Winslow is a beast.  Did you not watch the NCAA tourney?  He made every big shot needed and was playing on a bad ankle.

You say he has a shaky jumper?  Really?  He shot 41.4% from 3 point land this year.  Plus he can take his man off the dribble and he has an NBA ready body now, and is really good defender.  He may be the steal of the draft at 10.  Phil Jackson is even more stupid than Danny Ainge.  From now on he will be referred to by me as the Zen Monkey.  He should have drafted Winslow.  If that rumor you refer to is true than Danny Ainge is a moron as well.  Why would you give up 4 first rounders?

dboss

I agree that Danny's offer of 4 first rounders was way too much, and I'm happy it didn't go through. But Danny hit three singles, all of who can easily turn into doubles for the position they were drafted at.

But the Lakers took a huge gamble on an unathletic combo-guard at #2, the guy ranked as having the highest bust potential. There's nothing wrong with hitting singles in the draft. Danny didn't draft anybody who can't drink legally.

Porzingis is going to surprise you, and you'll wonder how in the world you didn't see what was right in front of you. Same with Carmelo, who is crying like a baby because he never bothered to scout the Euro.

A lot of guys with shaky jump shots appear to be good shooters if you only take a quick look at their stats and see a good 3 point %. It's easy forget to check how many 3s they actually shot, and forget that small sample size can distort a statistic.

Nobody's calling Bobby Portis or Kevon Looney a good NBA 3 point shooter, and they, like Winslow, shot a good % from 3 on low volume. If you only take wide open shots, and only one a game, you're going to look like a better shooter than a guy who shoots many more attempts, including contested shots.

Look at the actual number of 3 pointers Winslow was taking. Then look at his FT%. He's not a good FT shooter, which suggests that his small sample size of 3 pointers is inflated relative to his actual ability.


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Post by Sam Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:26 pm

Rambone has his own opinions, but that hardly qualifies him as "nuts."  He always has reasons for his opinions; and, whether or not I agree with those reasons, I appreciate the thought put into them.

The specter of the perfect center hangs over this club like the sword of Damocles.  If it had been any other position that fans are expecting Danny to fill through the draft, the task would not have been all that daunting with the picks that Danny had.  But an impact center is almost always the one position the draft is least willing to produce.  And despite some opinions to the contrary, a fumble-fingered, plodding, moving pick cartoon who had value as a center primarily when he was paired with KG and can't now get time with the Cavs is definitely not the answer.

It seems obvious that Danny must go a route other than the draft to shore up the center position,  I usually prefer trades over free agency as a means of grabbing talent.  The money equalization factor eliminates the cap as a key barrier.  A trade involves two entities working toward the same end rather than competing for a prize.  Chances of overpaying are far less strong.  Getting damaged goods is less of a possibility.

But, in this case, centers such as Lopez (Robin), Jordan, Gasol (Marc), and Chandler (all UNrestricted free agents) fill me with hope because the price of acquisition isn't picks, and it isn't players.  It's simply (1) money plus (2) a good selling job.  That combination is certainly not a slam dunk proposition, but I believe free agency offers more promise than trades when it comes to centers because trades will involve the same prohibitive pricing philosophy that moving up in the draft did.  Just imagine what Indiana would demand in trade for Hibbert (if he were considered a desirable acquisition).

I don't need to be reminded about cold New England winters and the desire of top free agents to get into a contending situation.  This is where the selling job comes into play. And it won't be easy; nothing important is easy.  But the Celtics do have some arrows in their quiver that other teams don't have.  Just to name three: the team brand or mystique or call it what you will; the momentum that now requires a legendary center-in-the-making to lead the way to a new era of prominence in a storied tradition; and a coach who just might be the best in the business at putting his players in a position to succeed and maximize their potential.

So free agency is the path I hope Danny will follow in acquiring an impact center, while trades can take advantage of bundled picks and other strategies to fill other needs.  I had hopes but never really counted on the crap shoot for much of anything.

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Post by bobheckler Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:37 pm

112288 wrote:The 28th pick was a token gift thrown in by LAC.  So remove that pick and what did we get for a 4 and out playoff appearance...................Rozier!

112288

112288,

A gift? Have you forgotten the weeks of negotiations to get that pick? How it got dragged out? How we all crowed when Danny was able to do something never done before, getting a 1st for a coach? That's not "gifting", that's negotiating.


bob


.
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Post by 112288 Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:46 pm

Bob,

What I meant by a gift, it was something that we did not earn out of normal coarse of basketball business i.e. a trade etc. I do not qualify switching coaches under duress as normal basketball business. It is a freak event that does not occur often.

Singles, singles...................and then a double play ground out! That is how I see us right now. I know that this could set us up using these players as fillers in trades and free agent signings................I'm patient.............July will tell the tale!

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Post by wide clyde Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:51 pm

112288,

Lets all hope that July will tell the tale that June (so far) has not.

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Post by 112288 Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:18 pm

Wide....I like that!

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Post by cowens/oldschool Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:34 pm

112288 wrote:The 28th pick was a token gift thrown in by LAC.  So remove that pick and what did we get for a 4 and out playoff appearance...................Rozier!

112288

playoffs?? this is probably the worst Celtic team ever that made it to the playoffs.

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Post by NYCelt Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:32 am

I'm not sure why all the extreme reaction to the picks.  To me the only one I can't figure is Thornton; I agree it was time to take another PG, but would have gone with Harrison.

Rozier should end up a rotation player, eventually starting at PG with Smart at 2G.  Smart has been heading toward being our 2G since draft day 2014.  I agree with Rambone, most of the draft capsules you read don't seem to have ever watched Rozier (or anyone else for that matter).  He's quick, can shoot and distribute.  I would have gone with Jerian Grant, but clearly PG was our greatest need.

I thought we would go PF second, but they apparently saw a possible rotation player at PF would likely still be available at #33, and they got one in Mickey.  I saw someone comment earlier he was D-League bound, but I think that's a pretty remote possibility.  More likely he joins one of Bass/Sully/Kelly at PF with the other two getting their mail in a new zip code (Danny's probably far from done juggling with just the draft).  The opportunity to get the shooter we so badly need at #28, and having Hunter available, probably dictated that selection.  I was thinking Dakari Johnson at #33, but he would need time and seasoning for a few years like Perk once did (as we may all recall), where Mickey can probably gain a fair number of minutes right away.  He's a banger inside and a rebounder.  Mickey is one of the more NBA ready PFs in this year's draft.

It may be time to get the idea of needing a "rim-protecting center" (man, I hate that over-used term) out of our collective heads.  There wasn't a prime, NBA-ready, center available by #16, there's not one lurking as a free agent, and we probably don't have the goods to trade for one.  Maybe, just maybe, the plan is going to evolve not to bother at all.  Anybody notice the absence of one in this years finals?  Heck, anyone notice the absence of any center in this years finals?  Festus Ezeli was the Warriors center by the time the finals started.  What did Festus get in that series; something like 11 minutes?  Plenty of teams are moving away from building with a dominating center, and it's not a completely new trend.  A little team called the Chicago Bulls once went on one long and crazy run without one joining them for the whole ride (and no, neither Cartwright nor a shell of what was once The Chief count). Some analysts even thought we should take a gamble on Upshaw. Come on; no one was that desperate. That kid needs some help to turn himself around; fast.

The last pick is the only one I would completely question.  But at least it was a PG, and taking a couple of players at that position is a good, and needed, play.

I think treating the draft like an isolated event is a mistake, especially with Ainge.  We still have money to spend, although the current free agent pool isn't great.  On top of that we still have more picks than we could need, and even if they are a year plus off, packaging them with the likes of Sully, Kelly, Bradley and who knows who else, might bring us back at least a serviceable player at one of the three forward spots.

The draft is simply act one in a three act summer play.  Welcome to the first intermission.


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Post by rambone Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:46 am

cowens/oldschool wrote:
112288 wrote:The 28th pick was a token gift thrown in by LAC.  So remove that pick and what did we get for a 4 and out playoff appearance...................Rozier!

112288

playoffs?? this is probably the worst Celtic team ever that made it to the playoffs.

Only if you count the games when Rondo was here.
We were the second best team in the east after the all star break.

Did you forget about that?

rambone

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