Missing the point: Marcus Smart making impact despite shooting woes

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4722575/missing-the-point-marcus-smart-making-impact-despite-shooting-woes



Missing the point: Marcus Smart making impact despite shooting woes

10:54 PM ET




Chris Forsberg
ESPN Staff Writer




BOSTON -- Boston Celtics point guard Marcus Smart is in an offensive funk and that's saying something considering his shooting struggles during his first two NBA seasons.

Smart missed 10 of the 11 shots he put up during Boston's win over the Orlando Magic on Monday night, leading some of his more vocal detractors to wonder if the No. 6 pick in the 2014 draft will ever be a serviceable offensive player. Make no mistake, Smart is struggling with his shot, shooting just 31.2 percent overall (44 of 141) and 19.7 percent beyond the 3-point arc (13 of 66) in Boston's 16 games since the All-Star break.

But dismissing his offensive production based on his shooting stats alone is simply lazy. It ignores the fact that, in that same 16-game span, the Celtics are averaging 105.1 points per 100 possessions with Smart on the floor, which is 2.6 points better than Smart's offensive rating in 34 appearances before the All-Star break.

What's more, Smart's post-All-Star net rating of plus-2.7 ranks second on the team behind only Jae Crowder (plus-5.1), a player whose shoes Smart has tried to help fill while Crowder has been sidelined the past five games due to a high ankle sprain. As spectacular as All-Star Isaiah Thomas has been recently, even he's only plus-2.1 in net rating since the All-Star break.


Marcus Smart has been struggling offensively for the Celtics recently, including a 1-for-11 shooting night against the Magic on Monday. Greg M. Cooper/USA TODAY Sports


Smart had a now-famous stretch starting in late January -- after a snow-related postponement to a game in Philadelphia -- in which he shot 42.9 percent from beyond the 3-point arc over an 11-game span leading up to the All-Star break. The "Snow Day" practice that triggered his hot streak showed that Smart had the potential to be a more consistent shooter.

Smart absolutely has lost his touch since the break. But when he missed 10 shots on Monday night, including all five 3-pointers he attempted, some reacted as if he was hurting the team. The numbers suggest quite the opposite and a review of Smart's shot selection confirms that he's simply not knocking down quality looks.

Of the five 3-pointers that Smart attempted in Monday's game, the league's player-tracking cameras classified three as "open" (defender four to six feet away) and the other two as "wide open" (defender six-plus feet away). Four of the five attempts were catch-and-shoot looks, including two in which the ball found Smart open after offensive rebounds. The other was a pullup in transition in which Smart, after an aggressive outlet feed, tried to catch Orlando's defense on its heels.

In fact, of the 66 3-point attempts that Smart has taken since the All-Star break only one has been classified as "very tight" defense (defender zero to two feet away). Only 15 have been deemed "tight" defense (defender two to four feet away). The other 50 have all been "open" looks.

Are defenses challenging Smart to shoot? Absolutely. Could there be times when he should be more selective before firing away, given his struggles? Sure. But Smart seems to have coach Brad Stevens in his corner during this funk.

“[Sunday] he made some [shots] and had a pretty productive offensive day; [Monday] wasn’t his night," Stevens said. "You have to continue to shoot the good ones. You have to continue to shoot the right ones. When you shoot the right ones it allows you to rebound because you’re in position. He had a couple [Monday] where he had nice drives off of movement. He drove the slots, drove openings, and drove close-outs.

"He’s going to have to make the right play and continue to believe. We believe in him."

If you want to gripe about Smart's offense, you might be better off lamenting his inability to finish drives. Smart is more frequently attacking the basket now, finding his way to the rim while accelerating off of handoffs or coming off of pick-and-rolls. Far too often, however, Smart attacks without a plan, which has led to him either being blocked by the last line of defense or throwing up a wild attempt. Even his lone make on Monday was a floater between two defenders while being fouled.

Smart must continue to work on his perimeter shooting, especially those corner looks on which he's been downright abysmal (9 of 47, 19 percent; down nearly 20 percent from his rookie season). But just as important is learning to finish around the basket. Almost an equal amount of his shots have come in the restricted area (134) as via non-corner 3-pointers (159).

Before the start of the 2015-16 season, ESPN Insider posted profiles for every NBA player and Smart's closed with the note, "Frankly, Marcus Smart plays offense as if he's being defended by Marcus Smart."

It's a backhanded compliment that simultaneously praises his defensive efforts and accentuates his offensive struggles. FiveThirtyEight raised eyebrows when CARMELO produced a James Harden comparison, while suggesting Smart was on a "future All-Star" track.

Smart hasn't hit CARMELO's lofty projection of 6 wins above replacement. But he's at 3.61 for the season, which is still 111th out of 457 total players. For the season, Smart ranks 19th among all NBA point guards in Real Plus/Minus. He's only five spots behind All-Star teammate Thomas, thanks in part to his lofty placement in defensive RPM (fourth among point guards).

Smart, who is averaging 9.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.6 steals over 27.1 minutes per game, has been a key part of Boston's bench success and Stevens leaned on him as a spot starter early in Crowder's absence, even though it left Smart guarding the likes of Paul George and Kevin Durant.

Smart turned 22 earlier this month. His progression this season hasn't been as obvious as some would have preferred, but even while deferring some ballhandling chores to Evan Turner on Boston's second unit, Smart has still showed improved point guard skills, including a dip in his turnover percentage. Smart has also been an aggressive rebounder for his size and looks more comfortable running the offense.

He's allowed his frustration with whistles -- both those that go against him and the ones he does not draw -- to fluster him at times. That included Monday's game against the Magic when, after believing he got fouled on a late fourth-quarter 3-point attempt, he failed to get back into the play and Orlando scored at the other end. Smart was quickly replaced by Turner.

Smart has to get better at not letting calls -- or the lack thereof -- affect him. He needs to become more efficient on the offensive end. But even when those shots are not falling, he's figured out a way to impact the Celtics in a positive way when he's on the floor.



bob
MY NOTE:  Forsberg must be reading this board and my posts (just kidding).  I think that assessment "Marcus Smart plays offense like he was being guarded by Marcus Smart" is dead on.  If we should be critical, first, of his inability to finish in the paint before his 3pt shooting then he is REALLY bad because I think he's better when he's using his size and strength where he can take contact on his smaller defender and make something happen.

In a tangential note, Smart was drafted out of OK State as a "6'4" Point Guard".  He is not a natural point guard anymore than Avery Bradley is.  Size does not and should not determine what position a player should play (does the name "Kristaps Porzingis" mean anything?).  This is why the draft is such a crap shoot.  College kids are playing in vastly different systems, against talent most of whom won't even end up in the D-league, and are able to get away with weaknesses in their game that the less forgiving NBA game will not let them get away with.  He's the #6 pick coming off the bench because he cannot replace a 6'2" SG in the starting lineup.  Why?  Because the undersized SG can shoot as well as defend.

I pointed out, repeatedly, on the Game On thread vs Orlando about how every time Marcus Smart shot our lead shrank.  I know what Brad is saying about "taking the right shot" and all that, but if Marcus Smart cannot not knock down open shots then they are not the "right shot" for him.

Is there a "right shot" for Marcus Smart?  Haven't seen it yet.


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Is there a formula available that can accurately determine the point at which Smarts lack of offensive talent outweigh his defensive capabilities ?

swish

swish wrote:Is there a formula available that can accurately determine the point at which Smarts lack of offensive talent outweigh his defensive capabilities ?

 swish

swish,

They claim it's the real net +/-.  That's the number of points the team scores when he is on the court minus how many points the team gives up when he is on the court.  I'm not a fan of the +/-, in almost any version, but that's just me. According to real +/- Smart is still a major asset.


bob


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bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:Is there a formula available that can accurately determine the point at which Smarts lack of offensive talent outweigh his defensive capabilities ?

 swish

swish,

They claim it's the real net +/-.  That's the number of points the team scores when he is on the court minus how many points the team gives up when he is on the court.  I'm not a fan of the +/-, in almost any version, but that's just me.  According to real +/- Smart is still a major asset.


bob


.

Smart's Real +/- is 6th on the Celtics and ranked #103 in the league.
One spot ahead of Tarik Black and one spot behind Darrell Arthur.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/3/sort/RPM

bob and tjmakz

Thanks bob and tjmakz. I have a problem with the plus/minus figures because they tend to elevate the performances of players that play many minutes with and against players that are bench players.

swish

Hey guys, just popping in because I've been thinking about Smart a lot just now.

Smart's shooting woes lately have been a bit troubling, but in the big picture everything is A-OK with Smart.

If you think this team is lacking toughness and physicality without Crowder, just imagine if we were missing Smart as well. And even without Crowder, the Celtics are playing pretty darn well, and Smart is helping to ensure that our tough/physical identity hasn't missed a beat, more or less.

I've compared Smart to Dennis Johnson in the past, and I think Smart is very much still on track to have exactly that level of career, championships aside (for now).

But here's another name I'll throw out there, not as an exact comparison, but in a ballpark sense: Draymond Green.

Yes, Draymond and Smart play different positions, but they both bring the same defensive focus, passion, intensity, and toughness. They're both maximally versatile defensively, and offensively as well.

It's true that Smart is shooting like absolute crap right now, but even so, he's still making a significantly positive impact on the team, as Forsberg explains in the article. Just imagine this team right now without Smart, how soft they would be. Superior toughness and physicality isn't nothing, even though it doesn't fit into one or two statistical categories.

Keep in mind that Draymond Green was a senior in college when the same age as Smart is now. And in Draymond's rookie year he only averaged 2.8 points per game.

I looked up both of their stats side by side, and came away much more comfortable with Smart and his future despite his shooting woes. It's all good, and even at his worst, Smart is still basically an impact player.

While it's true that Smart isn't a true point guard, everybody in the basketball business knew that all along. But Smart is a million times better as a point guard than Avery Bradley. Smart may not be a #6 pick level point guard, but he was never drafted to be strictly a point guard. It's just one of the positions that he plays competently, and that versatility to do so many different things, while playing elite defense, that made him the #6 pick.

Draymond Green fell to the second round because he wasn't a pure SF and he wasn't a pure PF, and he wasn't great at either position. Now, at age 26, he's averaging 13.7 points per game and talked about as almost as good as Steph Curry. Similarly, you see how Crowder is seen as just about on par with IT4 by a lot of people, even though Crowder scores many less points per game.

Now I'm not saying that Smart will end up as good as Draymond (or Curry, lol), but he can definitely end up as good as Crowder, who is approximately as good as IT, the all star. In fact, if Smart was merely shooting as well as he shot last year, Smart would be just below Crowder right now.

Keep in mind, of course, that 1.1 years ago, nobody expected Crowder, and even IT4, to be as good as they are right now. Even FOUR months ago, I dare say, not many people expected IT4 to be a clear cut all star, and ranked as high as a top 20 (17th, I recall) player in the NBA.

Nobody, my self included, expected Crowder to shoot as well from 3 and to make THIS much progress as an all around scorer. If anybody HAD expected it, Crowder would have been signed to much much more than his 8 million per year contract.

Long story short, Smart is ALREADY, at 22 y.o., one of those sneaky-good, under-appreciated players who make a much bigger impact on wins and losses than people would think. He did an OUTSTANDING job defensively against Paul freaking George in Smart's first start EVER at Small forward. I also vaguely recall that Smart's +/- that game was 0, while Paul George's +/- was +3, and most of PG's damage was done when Smart was on the bench.

Sure, Smart got destroyed by Kevin Durant, but so do most true small forwards, every single night. That doesn't mean Smart isn't a competent small forward, it just means that 6'11 hall of famers might not be the best matchup for him. Oh no!!

Versatility is all the rage in this analytics age, especially defensive versatility. And while bigger versatile defenders like Draymond Green, Willie Cauley Stein, and Porzingis get all the attention, that doesn't mean that smaller versatile defenders aren't extremely valuable as well. And Smart is as versatile, if not moreso, than all those guys. Smart can even switch onto 4s and 5s and put up a decent fight. You might recall the Knicks game where Brad started the second half with Smart as our PF, and he locked Porzingis down. Did Sportscenter report that at the beginning of the show, or anywhere? Heck no. And name another combo guard who keep Paul George in check as a 22 year old playing completely out of position at SF for the first time in their life.

Smart's character may very well be a bit questionable, and that's a disappointment. But Draymond Green isn't without his own character question marks. You might recall he had a halftime temper tantrum and lashed out at his teammates just a couple weeks ago. "I'm not a F##%@ Robot!", he said. And last summer he reportedly told a porn star chick that he wanted to be her pimp and set her up with athletes in basketball and other major sports leagues.


Smart's shooting woes are enough to make me question his ultimate upside, but keep in mind that Jae Crowder was pretty much a trade throw in just one year ago, and nobody predicted he would break out this year like he has.
And ultimately, Smart's shooting woes could continue his whole career and he'd still be a rock solid player, the kind you see on every championship team. And of course Smart will keep getting better, because that's what hard working 22 year olds do.

Smart may or may not develop into a Draymond-level awesome 2nd best player on a championship team, but Smart is definitely on track to be a 3rd best player on a championship team, as Crowder is now. I can definitely live with that, all day, every day.

And about the Real Plus Minus stat: While I do believe it is a valuable stat, much more valuable than most other stats, for some reason it is a stat that favors big men over guards. So while it is still a useful stat, it is only useful when comparing bigs to bigs, and smalls to smalls. Rather than look at Smart's overall rank, look at where he would rank among point guards, then among shooting guards, then (lastly) among small forwards.


Just for kicks and giggles, take a look at Smart's second year stats vs Draymond Green's second year stats, keeping in mind that Smart is two years younger than Green was. http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=greendr01&y1=2014&p2=smartma01&y2=2016&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=


Smart is exploring and unfortunately discovering his offensive limits as a player. He'll either reign in his shot selection or improve as a shooter, but most likely some combination of the two. Smart is already far more advanced, and more versatile, than a lot of stars and borderline stars were at the same age. To suggest that Smart and Smart alone won't continue to get better would be absurd, though I don't see that argument being made.


Smart is the #1 player in his draft class in +/- per game: http://stats.nba.com/league/player/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DraftYear=2014&sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1&CF=MIN*GE*15

While that's obviously an imperfect stats, you can't point to a single player in his class who is clearly a better winner at this point. And that's exactly the reputation Smart had coming out of college. Best leader in his draft class, and best at just winning, baby.