The modern game -- The three pointer

The new game vs the old game  The three pointer vs the so called aircraft carriers of the low post generations of the past. Many discussions on this board center on this change in style of play. Some are for and some seem to prefer a return to the earlier years.  The four below links are for the years 1956-57, 1959-60, 1985-86, 2014-15 and point out the how the game has evolved over the years.

        1956-57
  http://bkref.com/tiny/ZynH9

        1959-60
 http://bkref.com/tiny/edpdJ

        1985-86
 http://bkref.com/tiny/DCaju

        2014-15
 http://bkref.com/tiny/VsBQ0

         I believe that the changes are the result of a huge improvement in the skill level in two particular areas - Shooting and ball handling. The present day big men (6'8" - 7'7") now play on the perimeter
with skills that were not even thought about  when Russ and wilt dominated the inside game back in the 50s and 60s. Other than Bird the big men of the 80s were still pretty much low post players. Here are some numbers that will clearly point out the evolution of the big man as he gravitated towards the outside game.
       Links from Basketball Reference  
    Forwards only
         1956-57 - 8 teams - only 1 player listed as 6'8" or taller - weight - 198 lbs -  no 3 point shot
         1959-60 - 8 teams - only 1 player listed as 6'8" or taller - weight - 198 lbs -  no 3 point shot
         1985-86 - 23 teams - 18 players listed as 6'8" or taller - average weight - 214 lbs - average 3 point FGA per player - 0.21
         2014-15 - 30 teams - 60 players listed as 6'8" or taller - average weight - 234 lbs - average 3 point FGA per player - 3 01

    Clearly the bigs of the present have moved outside to areas once reserved for the little guys. Their outside shooting touch along with outstanding ball handling skills have, over the years,  increased the playing area to a point that it was inevitable that the style of play would take on a new look.

 swish

You've got it Swish.  Evolution.

Big guy is a threat from the arc, pulls his defender out, opens lanes to the hoop for cutters he can dish to, or, he takes the shot.  It's 2016 and that's an important part of how you play basketball.

The dodo bird is extinct.  Long live the three.  Run and shoot, baby, run and shoot.  Hey, that's also a football offense!  Guess if you can spread the field, you can spread the floor.

Still; I don't mind the thought of having a big, nasty, shot blocking, glass crashing, lane clogging, bulky mound of rebound waiting on the bench.  Nice to have the ability to change the pace too.

The 3 point shot has definitely become a more prominent part of the game

Here are the stats

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

The overall shooting percentages have not improved.

dboss

dboss wrote:The 3 point shot has definitely become a more prominent part of the game

Here are the stats

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

The overall shooting percentages have not improved.

dboss

For the 4 years that I used in my post, the league shooting percentages for 2 point field goal attempts  were,
      1956-57 - .380
      1959-60 - .410
      1985-86 - .496
      2014-15 - .485
Since the late 70s the shooting percentages have leveled off but in the 50s-60s there was a steady increase in shooting percentages. Woeful shooting percentages in those early years for sure. The 2 point shooting percentage for this current year is .490.

   swish

It is interesting to note that in the last 20 years we have not seen higher 3 point shooting percentages.  

If you look at the last 30 years there is no meaningful increase in point per game either.

Therefore the notion that the pace and space game will replace more traditional low post offense may not actually happen over a long period of time.  The pace and space game is not entirely new.  Think of some of the old Denver teams.  I think we will see some team re-assert the dominance of a low post scoring emphasis but also have the ability to take and make 3 point shots.  I think that is a more perfect style of basketball that i would prefer to watch.

dboss

The introduction of the 3 pt shot has made basketball a fundamentally different game. It was inevitable once the 3 was introduced. The only surprising thing is that it took ~ 30 yrs for coaches/GMs to adjust.

The goal of the two eras has always been the same - take shots that have a high probability of accumulating points. In the old days, that often meant getting shots nearer the basket. This challenge made the game fun to watch because it required either entertaining fast-break ball, clever pin-point passes, or athletic drives utlizing ballet-like body control. I miss that aspect of the game, and marvelling over the required skills. I know there is a lot of passing now, and many writers/bloggers extoll the beauty of San Antonio's or GSW's play, but it seems to me that alot of passing is either drive and dish, or pass around the perimeter until someone is open. It makes sense to play this way, and its highly effective, but that type of passing doesn't require the vision and skill of fast-break passing, or threading the needle in tight space. I guess I sort of miss the wow factor of a real fast-breal ball, or a beautiful drive, or a perfect pass it crowded quarters. Those days are gone though, and as long as people can easily shoot the three at ~ 30%, they are here to stay (I don't see them moving the line back, and for modern players like Steph, you would need to move it to half-court to become prohibitive).  It really is a different game. Thus, the question of who would win a series between 96 bulls and present GSW  (or whichever hypothetical trans-generation match up) would really depend on the rules they played under...

dboss wrote:It is interesting to note that in the last 20 years we have not seen higher 3 point shooting percentages.  

If you look at the last 30 years there is no meaningful increase in point per game either.

Therefore the notion that the pace and space game will replace more traditional low post offense may not actually happen over a long period of time.  The pace and space game is not entirely new.  Think of some of the old Denver teams.  I think we will see some team re-assert the dominance of a low post scoring emphasis but also have the ability to take and make 3 point shots.  I think that is a more perfect style of basketball that i would prefer to watch.

dboss

I agree with you that somewhere down the road there will be an nba champ anchored by an all-star dominating center. And your right about 3 point field goal percentages leveling off. The same has happened to 2 point shooting percentages. There always seems to be a point where averages level out. The same will probably hold true for 3 point field goal attempts. Its now been over 35 years since the 3 point shot arrived on the scene and each decade has seen the percentage of 3 point shots rise as a percentage of total shots taken. In 1979-80 it was .03%, 1989-90 .08%, 1999-00 .17%, 2009-10 .22%, 2015-16 .28%.

swish