The Horford Player Option

Horford's player option for the 2019-20 season, which he will be 33 years old during, is for 30.1 million. 

I read someone on this site mocking that amount and saying there is NO WAY he opts out of it at that age, therefore we are stuck with him and the last 1-2 years of this deal will look awful. 

I see it another way. After 3 years Horford gains Bird Right's in Boston, meaning he can sign for 5 years here while all other teams can only offer 4. The Celtics will likely have extended Thomas and one of Bradley/Smart to huge deals after the 2018 season and be paying into the luxury tax with hopefully big deals on the way for Jaylen Brown and another star the C'd nab with a top 3 pick in 2017. If Horford really likes Boston and wants to end his career here, he could exchange a short term payout for long-term security at that time, knowing it will allow the C's to keep everyone they need to stay contenders. 

Horford could opt-out of 30 million, sign something like a 5 year deal for 75 million ages 33-37, and slowly transition into more of a PJ Brown/David West type rotational guy.

In today's money I think such a deal is similar to Garnett signing a 3/36 contract for his age 36-38 seasons back in 2012. Perhaps even a bit cheaper (since players seem to get almost double now what they would have in 2012).

As I mentioned in another post, KG was 31 and had played roughly 37,500 minutes when he arrived in 2007. Horford is 30 and has played just under 23,000 minutes. While KG was WAY better prior to the trade and for at least 1.5 years here, Horford having so much less mileage makes me feel he will be closer to his prime ages 33-36 than KG was the 4 years we had him at those ages. 

KG was also paid 80 million those last 4 years in Boston. Which was over 30% of the cap at the time. If Horford re-upped for 5/75 in 2019 that would likely be only be 12-13% of the cap those years.

Sort of early to be worrying about 4 years from now when the question then could very well be whether or not the Celts are really interested in resigning him.

swish

swish wrote: Sort of early to be worrying about 4 years from now when the question then could very well be whether or not the Celts are really interested in resigning him.

swish

I only bring it up b/c someone here found the idea of including the option laughable, as "why would he opt out of it?" The poster said he'd be 34 when he'd actually be 33 at the time and making 28.5 mil when it will actually be 30.1.

Anyhow, the option coming after the season when the C's acquire his Bird Right's bears mentioned at this time. It was likely included to create a situation that could be mutually beneficial to player and team, rather than as a demand by his agent to get Al on the open market again ASAP to somehow set him up to leave Boston and get more money elsewhere as was implied elsewhere on this site.

Ram wrote:

swish wrote: Sort of early to be worrying about 4 years from now when the question then could very well be whether or not the Celts are really interested in resigning him.

swish

I only bring it up b/c someone here found the idea of including the option laughable, as "why would he opt out of it?" The poster said he'd be 34 when he'd actually be 33 at the time and making 28.5 mil when it will actually be 30.1.

Anyhow, the option coming after the season when the C's acquire his Bird Right's bears mentioned at this time. It was likely included to create a situation that could be mutually beneficial to player and team, rather than as a demand by his agent to get Al on the open market again ASAP to somehow set him up to leave Boston and get more money elsewhere as was implied elsewhere on this site.

Thanks for the explanation.

swish

swish wrote:

Ram wrote:

swish wrote: Sort of early to be worrying about 4 years from now when the question then could very well be whether or not the Celts are really interested in resigning him.

swish

I only bring it up b/c someone here found the idea of including the option laughable, as "why would he opt out of it?" The poster said he'd be 34 when he'd actually be 33 at the time and making 28.5 mil when it will actually be 30.1.

Anyhow, the option coming after the season when the C's acquire his Bird Right's bears mentioned at this time. It was likely included to create a situation that could be mutually beneficial to player and team, rather than as a demand by his agent to get Al on the open market again ASAP to somehow set him up to leave Boston and get more money elsewhere as was implied elsewhere on this site.

 Thanks for the explanation.

 swish

Swish,

Ram is actually very insightful and strategic-thinking here. By opting out when he has 2-3 years left in him gains him the security of a long-term contract.


bob

.

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:
 Thanks for the explanation.

 swish

Swish,

Ram is actually very insightful and strategic-thinking here.  By opting out when he has 2-3 years left in him gains him the security of a long-term contract.


bob

Thanks Bob. Couldn't tell if Swish actually appreciated the insight or if he was being sarcastic.