Al Horford scouting report: Boston Celtics newest addition will plug into offense, defense perfectly

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Al Horford scouting report: Boston Celtics newest addition will plug into offense, defense perfectly




Al Horford fits perfectly into the Boston Celtics' roster. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)



Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com By Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com



on July 05, 2016 at 11:35 AM, updated July 05, 2016 at 11:36 AM




After Al Horford signed with the Boston Celtics, the analysis went immediately to the "What does this mean for Kevin Durant?" question, which is understandable. Acquiring Horford put Boston in a great position to recruit the superstar small forward, and if the Celtics had swayed Durant, they would have been legitimate title contenders.

But now that Durant has signed with the Golden State Warriors, creating a super-team the likes of which we realistically haven't seen in NBA history, the focus can shift back to the question of what Boston has in Horford — a four-time All-Star and arguably the best player on a Hawks' team that has been a second-tier Eastern Conference contender for the past few years.

The answer: The Celtics have quite a bit. Let's take a closer look.


Who Horford Is

Horford is listed at 6-foot-10 on the NBA's official website, but he's likely closer to 6-foot-9, with a 7-foot wingspan. At nearly 250 pounds, Horford is strong, physical and athletic — a fully capable center that can also play power forward, depending on a team's lineup needs.


What Horford Does Well

A little bit of everything.

On the offensive end, Horford is excellent with his back to the basket for multiple reasons. His strength and soft touch lends itself well to post-up baskets (he was in the 61st percentile among NBA players at 0.89 points per possession, per Synergy Sports), but perhaps more important is his passing in the paint — while back-down post-up opportunities are one of the least efficient ways to score in the modern NBA, working the ball inside-out (or inside-in) remains one of the more efficient and a great way for strong big men to find offense. Horford is one of the best back-to-the-basket passers in the league.

But while Horford can fill the role of a traditional center, he can also both stretch and collapse the floor as well, giving him the ability to play a more modern role in an offense. He shot 34.4 percent from 3-point range last season, which is slightly below league average but comfortably above the threshold from which 3-pointers are statistically valuable. Per NBA.com tracking stats, Horford took most of his 3-pointers "wide open" (with no defender within six feet or more), and in those situations, he shot 35.3 percent. Horford is not Kevin Love or Channing Frye from behind the arc, but he is very capable of stretching the defense — whether with 20-foot two-point jumpers or 3-pointers.

Once he has extended the floor, Horford forces defenders to respect his jumper, and his versatility comes into even sharper focus. He can attack closeouts off the dribble, and when he gets into the paint, he can both finish and pass. At nearly 6-foot-10, the ability to take closing defenders off the dribble makes Horford lethal.

Meanwhile, pick-and-roll sets might actually be Horford's most dangerous offensive ability. Per Synergy, Horford was in the 82nd percentile among NBA roll men, with over 24.3 percent of his offense resulting in a highly efficient 1.29 points per possession.

None of this even touches Horford's defensive abilities. In a league that values players who can do multiple things on the defensive end, Horford is a perfect fit — capable of protecting the rim, hedging and switching pick-and-rolls, and bodying against post players who look to score around the rim. He has never posted gaudy rebounding stats, but his contributions as a help defender who can recover to his man make him an ideal center.


Why Horford Fits With The Celtics

The easy answer is that the Celtics needed a star, and Horford is a star — not a supernova player that automatically turns Boston into a contender, but certainly a potential go-to scorer and defender capable of making an All-Star team.

After the easy answer, everything gets super intriguing. Horford's status as an ideal modern big makes him extra ideal for Stevens' offense. Multiple commentators have brought this up, but Jared Sullinger got a ton of open shots within the flow of the offense from the top of the key last season — shots that looked very similar to this.



The Celtics have a point guard who can get into the paint and collapse a defense around Horford in Isaiah Thomas. With a reliable shooter at the top of the key in Horford, Thomas will get better looks at the rim, and when he doesn't, Horford will continue to have those open 3-pointers that help make him dangerous.

Boston also has several excellent cutters and slashers, including Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, both of whom will almost certainly join Horford in the starting lineup. If Horford operates out of the high post — or even from the perimeter — Bradley and Crowder will have more space off the ball in the paint. Horford could initiate the offense from the elbow, or by attacking closeouts. Once again, defenses will be forced to make difficult, quick choices, or they will be punished with easy baskets.




Most encouraging for Celtics fans, however, should be Horford's defensive versatility. On a team that is already very versatile on that end, Horford brings a crucial missing piece — a big man who can switch and hedge, as well as a rim protector and help-side defender that has been missing in previous years.

Despite the lack of a high-level big defender, Boston was a very good defensive team — the Celtics had the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA last year, per Basketball-Reference, and they defended the 3-point line at the fourth-best rate. The Celtics were solid defending two-pointers (allowing just 48.1 percent to opponents, 11th best in the NBA) largely thanks to the work of their perimeter defenders, but Horford is an imposing interior presence that should help Boston improve on that number.

Watch Horford's versatility here, as he hedges, keeps Dirk Nowitzki covered in the high post, helps in the paint against a second shot attempt, and tips a rebound out to a teammate.




Or witness as he keeps his eyes on an isolation drive by Michael Carter-Williams, rotating just in time to swallow up the sky in front of the Milwaukee point guard and reject the layup attempt.




Or watch as Orlando Nikola Vucevic — an eminently capable post-up threat — tries to body Horford and seems to get a little bit of daylight (by holding Horford with his off arm), only to have Horford recover and send his shot flying.




Bradley, Crowder and Marcus Smart were always likely to ensure that Boston would have a good defense next season, but Horford solidifies that assumption and could push it to an entirely new level. The Celtics will have a special team on the defensive end.

Adding Kevin Durant would have been the crowning jewel in a highly important summer for Ainge, but even without him, the Celtics are likely to make enormous strides next season. Horford fits into the Celtics' system like a piece in a jigsaw puzzle — not the last one that completes it, but an important one that gives shape to the rest of the picture.



bob
MY NOTE:  I think Horford is precisely the type of versatile big that Brad Stevens wants, which is why they walked into the meeting with Horford with a max offer but were considering Howard "if the price was right".  Some people ask the question "what does he do great?" and the answer might be "nothing" but he is a modern 4/5 big in a league going positionless but with a 30 year old's experience.  I'd love to have more length, like a Nerlens Noel-type, but Horford is a highly mobile defensive anchor and without a doubt an upgrade over what we had last year.  Our highly ranked defense just got a lot better because the strength of our defense was at the perimeter BUT NOT so much because of the ability of our bigs to get out there and help on mismatches/switches.  Horford can do that.  He's Jonas Jerebko-like in that respect, except 20# heavier.


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Bobh,
Thanks for the article. Very good summary of AH's capabilities.
After reading it I'd say he's KG light in current Celtics setup. I wonder how he'll fit from the mental stand point.
Some people close to the team, e.g. Mike Gorman, mentioned how good is the current team's chemistry. Will Horford fit in that department? Will he enhance it or break it?

AK

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics-al-horford-is-a-perfect-fit-roster-nba