CEILING-TO-FLOOR: A MAKE-OR-BREAK SEASON AHEAD FOR KELLY OLYNYK?

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/make-or-break-season-ahead-kelly-olynyk?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo&yptr=yahoo









A MAKE-OR-BREAK SEASON AHEAD FOR KELLY OLYNYK?



By A. Sherrod Blakely


August 23, 2016 2:54 PM




Every weekday until Sept. 7, we'll take a look at each player at the Celtics roster: Their strengths and their weaknesses, their ceiling and their floor. We continue today with Kelly Olynyk. For a look at the other profiles, click here.



BOSTON – The Celtics went into the playoffs last season well short of being at full strength. No player exemplified this more than Kelly Olynyk, a non-factor in postseason due to a right shoulder injury that required surgery in May.

He comes into this season facing a much stiffer route to playing time than his previous four seasons. While Jared Sullinger (Toronto) is gone, Boston brings in four-time All-Star Al Horford, in addition to returners Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and second-year big man Jordan Mickey, who is in line for a more expanded role this season.

Throw in the fact that Olynyk and the Celtics can reach terms on an extension before the start of the season (an unlikely occurrence because frankly it’s to both Boston and Olynyk’s benefit for him to be a restricted free agent next summer), and it’s clear just how important this season is to all involved.

Here’s a look at Olynyk’s ceiling as well as the floor for his game heading into this season.


The ceiling for Olynyk: Starter, Most Improved Player candidate

Kelly Olynyk has proven himself to be a much better contributor coming off the bench as opposed to starting. But no one will be shocked if Olynyk can play his way into a spot with the first group.  A 7-footer with legit 3-point range, Olynyk has shown flashes throughout his career of being a major problem for opponents because of his stretch-big skills.

And when teams have been a bit too eager in closing out or failed to box him out on a rebound, Olynyk has shown us all that “the bounce is real.”




He already ranks among the best big-man shooters all-time and needs just one made 3-pointer to join Dirk Nowitzki (1,701) and Andrea Bargnani (627) as the only 7-footers in league history with 500 or more made 3s.

In addition to making lots of 3s, Olynyk does it at a fairly efficient rate which can be seen in him shooting 40.5 percent on 3s last season which was tops among all NBA centers and made him one of just 20 players in the NBA to shoot at least 40 percent on 3s.

Although Olynyk’s defense has been considered among his biggest weaknesses, his defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions on the floor) of 97.7 was tops among Celtics players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.

If he can build off that, as well as continue to make teams pay with his long-range shooting, Olynyk could be one of the breakout performers this season for the Celtics and find himself on the short list of the NBA’s most improved players.

The bigger issue with Olynyk centers around his struggles holding position in the post as a rebounder. Because he’s a stretch big, you know he’s not going to haul in a ton of boards for you.

But he has to be better than last season when he grabbed 4.1 rebounds, which continued what has been a career regression in this area.

After averaging 5.2 boards as a rookie, he slipped to 4.7 in his second season and averaged a career-low 4.1 last season.


The floor for Olynyk: Active roster

Talk to anyone within the Celtics organization and they will not hesitate to point out the skillset that Olynyk has and how important he could potentially be for this team going forward.

Still, that’s part of the problem.

Olynyk has shown promise to be more than just a player in the rotation. He has the kind of skills that if he were to deliver them with more consistency, he would immediately become one of the team’s standout performers which would make Boston a much, much tougher team to defend.

But his game has been one marred by injuries and inconsistent play which, as you might expect, go hand-in-hand.

Even with what has been an uneven career, Olynyk has still managed to be a double-digit scorer in each of the past two seasons.

And his net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of +5.2 is tops among players logging 20 or more minutes, too.

But even if he doesn’t elevate his game defensively or become a more reliable rebounder for Boston, Olynyk won’t be suiting up in street clothes as a healthy scratch anytime soon.

Olynyk has too much talent, and when you look at this Celtics roster, he fits a clear and well-defined need.

Pace and space remain keys to what Brad Stevens is trying to do with the Celtics and Olynyk’s strengths are an ideal addition.

But as we have seen with Stevens in the past, he’s not afraid to take a player out of the starting lineup or regular rotation, and bench them from time to time.

Just as it won’t surprise anyone to see Olynyk play a more prominent role potentially as a starter, the same is true if he struggles and finds himself racking up a few DNP-CDs (did not play- coaches decision) either.

But Olynyk has too much talent to fall too far off the Celtics’ radar, especially when you look at this roster and realize there’s no other player quite like him in terms of combining size, skill and perimeter shooting.



bob
MY NOTE:  I don't see Kelly being a starter this year barring injury to Horford or injury (or trade) to Amir.  Amir is an interior defensive presence and excellent pnr player.  Horford is an excellent pnr player too, but he can also stretch the floor like Kelly.  IF, however, Amir and whatever/whomever else is traded for Boogie then I could see Kelly being moved up to starter alongside Horford, or perhaps as one of the whomevers in the Boogie trade.  In that case Horford would move to PF and fill the role Kelly currently plays off the bench, stretch 4.  Horford cannot hit the 3 like Kelly but he does so many other things better and, with Boogie in the fold, our interior would be vastly improved. Without a trade for height/beef then Kelly fills a definite role, he is Horford-off-the-bench.

For all the observations, and talk, about Kelly's defense the bottom line is the bottom line:  the team is more efficient, points scored minus points given up, when he is on the floor.  If you want to say it's because Brad has figured out a way to cleverly hide him in the defense, fine, that doesn't change the fact that the team scores more points with him on the floor than without him.  

Injury-wise, though, he is problematic.  This is a big boy league and players are quite physical and he isn't very muscular.  He needs to stay on the floor to be effective and he has to somehow avoid the injury bug to do that.

Only Dirk and Barf-nani, huh?  That's a pretty freaking wide spectrum of talent there.  I've said all along that Kelly's calling card is his offense and he needs to be aggressive when he's out there.  If he moves more, shoots more, he'll offset whatever defensive liabilities he has, much as Dirk has.  Dirk isn't a good defender or rebounder neither.  For comparison purposes, here is the difference between Dirk and Kelly.  

Numbers are /36mpg career.


Category...........Dirk Nowitski...............Kelly Olynyk

Points------------22.5-----------------------17.7
Rebounds---------8.0------------------------8.1
Off. Rebs---------1.1------------------------1.9
FGAs-------------16.7-----------------------13.5
FG%-------------47.4-----------------------46.5
3pt FGAs----------3.4------------------------5.4
3pt FG%---------38.1-----------------------37.3 (40.5% last season)
Assists-----------2.6------------------------2.8
Blocks-------------.8-------------------------.8
Turnovers--------1.8------------------------1.9
FTAs--------------6.1------------------------3.3
FT%-------------87.9-----------------------74.6

So, the differences are not as glaring as one might think.  Dirk takes more fgas and ftas, so he scores more.  Kelly is a comparable rebounder but is a MUCH better offensive rebounder.  Dirk gets more of the easier defensive rebounds.  Dirk touches the ball A LOT more than Kelly.  The Maverick's offense goes through him more than the Celtics' offense goes through Kelly.  Is Kelly at the same place, after his 3rd year, that Dirk was after his 3rd year?  No, but the Celtics don't need to put Kelly on the floor for 38mpg like Dirk played in his 3rd year.  Also, not all players develop at the same rate.  And, after all these years in the league, Dirk still sucks on defense.  Does anybody even mention that?  Why not?  Because he scores a ton and is a go-to scorer in the clutch.  That plays right into Kelly's strength, he just needs to be uber-confident and aggressive.  SFs cannot guard him in the post, we saw that repeatedly last year.  Every time he was able to get one of them down there he started screaming for the ball, which is exactly, precisely what he should have done.  We just need more of that.  He has had several injuries which have limited his playing time and the quality of his play.  Dirk played 7021 minutes through his first 3 years while Kelly only played 4218 through 3.  Yes, Dirk earned and deserved those minutes, but also consider how all those minutes contributed to his development.  A lot of people ooh and ahh over Marcus Smart's play.  Smart has played 3475 minutes in just 2 years.  If playing time expedites development then both Dirk and Smart should be ahead of Kelly at the same point of their careers.




.

bobheckler wrote:http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/make-or-break-season-ahead-kelly-olynyk?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo&yptr=yahoo









A MAKE-OR-BREAK SEASON AHEAD FOR KELLY OLYNYK?



By A. Sherrod Blakely


August 23, 2016 2:54 PM




Every weekday until Sept. 7, we'll take a look at each player at the Celtics roster: Their strengths and their weaknesses, their ceiling and their floor. We continue today with Kelly Olynyk. For a look at the other profiles, click here.



BOSTON – The Celtics went into the playoffs last season well short of being at full strength. No player exemplified this more than Kelly Olynyk, a non-factor in postseason due to a right shoulder injury that required surgery in May.

He comes into this season facing a much stiffer route to playing time than his previous four seasons. While Jared Sullinger (Toronto) is gone, Boston brings in four-time All-Star Al Horford, in addition to returners Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and second-year big man Jordan Mickey, who is in line for a more expanded role this season.

Throw in the fact that Olynyk and the Celtics can reach terms on an extension before the start of the season (an unlikely occurrence because frankly it’s to both Boston and Olynyk’s benefit for him to be a restricted free agent next summer), and it’s clear just how important this season is to all involved.

Here’s a look at Olynyk’s ceiling as well as the floor for his game heading into this season.


The ceiling for Olynyk: Starter, Most Improved Player candidate

Kelly Olynyk has proven himself to be a much better contributor coming off the bench as opposed to starting. But no one will be shocked if Olynyk can play his way into a spot with the first group.  A 7-footer with legit 3-point range, Olynyk has shown flashes throughout his career of being a major problem for opponents because of his stretch-big skills.

And when teams have been a bit too eager in closing out or failed to box him out on a rebound, Olynyk has shown us all that “the bounce is real.”




He already ranks among the best big-man shooters all-time and needs just one made 3-pointer to join Dirk Nowitzki (1,701) and Andrea Bargnani (627) as the only 7-footers in league history with 500 or more made 3s.

In addition to making lots of 3s, Olynyk does it at a fairly efficient rate which can be seen in him shooting 40.5 percent on 3s last season which was tops among all NBA centers and made him one of just 20 players in the NBA to shoot at least 40 percent on 3s.

Although Olynyk’s defense has been considered among his biggest weaknesses, his defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions on the floor) of 97.7 was tops among Celtics players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.

If he can build off that, as well as continue to make teams pay with his long-range shooting, Olynyk could be one of the breakout performers this season for the Celtics and find himself on the short list of the NBA’s most improved players.

The bigger issue with Olynyk centers around his struggles holding position in the post as a rebounder. Because he’s a stretch big, you know he’s not going to haul in a ton of boards for you.

But he has to be better than last season when he grabbed 4.1 rebounds, which continued what has been a career regression in this area.

After averaging 5.2 boards as a rookie, he slipped to 4.7 in his second season and averaged a career-low 4.1 last season.


The floor for Olynyk: Active roster

Talk to anyone within the Celtics organization and they will not hesitate to point out the skillset that Olynyk has and how important he could potentially be for this team going forward.

Still, that’s part of the problem.

Olynyk has shown promise to be more than just a player in the rotation. He has the kind of skills that if he were to deliver them with more consistency, he would immediately become one of the team’s standout performers which would make Boston a much, much tougher team to defend.

But his game has been one marred by injuries and inconsistent play which, as you might expect, go hand-in-hand.

Even with what has been an uneven career, Olynyk has still managed to be a double-digit scorer in each of the past two seasons.

And his net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of +5.2 is tops among players logging 20 or more minutes, too.

But even if he doesn’t elevate his game defensively or become a more reliable rebounder for Boston, Olynyk won’t be suiting up in street clothes as a healthy scratch anytime soon.

Olynyk has too much talent, and when you look at this Celtics roster, he fits a clear and well-defined need.

Pace and space remain keys to what Brad Stevens is trying to do with the Celtics and Olynyk’s strengths are an ideal addition.

But as we have seen with Stevens in the past, he’s not afraid to take a player out of the starting lineup or regular rotation, and bench them from time to time.

Just as it won’t surprise anyone to see Olynyk play a more prominent role potentially as a starter, the same is true if he struggles and finds himself racking up a few DNP-CDs (did not play- coaches decision) either.

But Olynyk has too much talent to fall too far off the Celtics’ radar, especially when you look at this roster and realize there’s no other player quite like him in terms of combining size, skill and perimeter shooting.



bob
MY NOTE:  I don't see Kelly being a starter this year barring injury to Horford or injury (or trade) to Amir.  Amir is an interior defensive presence and excellent pnr player.  Horford is an excellent pnr player too, but he can also stretch the floor like Kelly.  IF, however, Amir and whatever/whomever else is traded for Boogie then I could see Kelly being moved up to starter alongside Horford, or perhaps as one of the whomevers in the Boogie trade.  In that case Horford would move to PF and fill the role Kelly currently plays off the bench, stretch 4.  Horford cannot hit the 3 like Kelly but he does so many other things better and, with Boogie in the fold, our interior would be vastly improved.  Without a trade for height/beef then Kelly fills a definite role, he is Horford-off-the-bench.

For all the observations, and talk, about Kelly's defense the bottom line is the bottom line:  the team is more efficient, points scored minus points given up, when he is on the floor.  If you want to say it's because Brad has figured out a way to cleverly hide him in the defense, fine, that doesn't change the fact that the team scores more points with him on the floor than without him.  

Injury-wise, though, he is problematic.  This is a big boy league and players are quite physical and he isn't very muscular.  He needs to stay on the floor to be effective and he has to somehow avoid the injury bug to do that.

Only Dirk and Barf-nani, huh?  That's a pretty freaking wide spectrum of talent there.  I've said all along that Kelly's calling card is his offense and he needs to be aggressive when he's out there.  If he moves more, shoots more, he'll offset whatever defensive liabilities he has, much as Dirk has.  Dirk isn't a good defender or rebounder neither.  For comparison purposes, here is the difference between Dirk and Kelly.  

Numbers are /36mpg career.


Category...........Dirk Nowitski...............Kelly Olynyk

Points------------22.5-----------------------17.7
Rebounds---------8.0------------------------8.1
Off. Rebs---------1.1------------------------1.9
FGAs-------------16.7-----------------------13.5
FG%-------------47.4-----------------------46.5
3pt FGAs----------3.4------------------------5.4
3pt FG%---------38.1-----------------------37.3 (40.5% last season)
Assists-----------2.6------------------------2.8
Blocks-------------.8-------------------------.8
Turnovers--------1.8------------------------1.9
FTAs--------------6.1------------------------3.3
FT%-------------87.9-----------------------74.6

So, the differences are not as glaring as one might think.  Dirk takes more fgas and ftas, so he scores more.  Kelly is a comparable rebounder but is a MUCH better offensive rebounder.  Dirk gets more of the easier defensive rebounds.  Dirk touches the ball A LOT more than Kelly.  The Maverick's offense goes through him more than the Celtics' offense goes through Kelly.  Is Kelly at the same place, after his 3rd year, that Dirk was after his 3rd year?  No, but the Celtics don't need to put Kelly on the floor for 38mpg like Dirk played in his 3rd year.  Also, not all players develop at the same rate.  And, after all these years in the league, Dirk still sucks on defense.  Does anybody even mention that?  Why not?  Because he scores a ton and is a go-to scorer in the clutch.  That plays right into Kelly's strength, he just needs to be uber-confident and aggressive.  SFs cannot guard him in the post, we saw that repeatedly last year.  Every time he was able to get one of them down there he started screaming for the ball, which is exactly, precisely what he should have done.  We just need more of that.  He has had several injuries which have limited his playing time and the quality of his play.  Dirk played 7021 minutes through his first 3 years while Kelly only played 4218 through 3.  Yes, Dirk earned and deserved those minutes, but also consider how all those minutes contributed to his development.  A lot of people ooh and ahh over Marcus Smart's play.  Smart has played 3475 minutes in just 2 years.  If playing time expedites development then both Dirk and Smart should be ahead of Kelly at the same point of their careers.




.

This is a case where using 36 minutes can lead to some false conclusions. It doesn't take into consideration the level of the competition that was faced while compiling these lofty numbers.

Career

Nowitzki,,,,,,,,,,,, games - 1340
started - 1309
minutes per game - 35.3


Olynyk,,,,,,,,,,,,,, games - 203
started - 30
minutes per game - 20.8

Perhaps he will turn out to be another Dirk, but I wouldn't hasten to make that comparison based on numbers compiled for the most part, against bench players.

swish wrote:

bobheckler wrote:http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/make-or-break-season-ahead-kelly-olynyk?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo&yptr=yahoo









A MAKE-OR-BREAK SEASON AHEAD FOR KELLY OLYNYK?



By A. Sherrod Blakely


August 23, 2016 2:54 PM




Every weekday until Sept. 7, we'll take a look at each player at the Celtics roster: Their strengths and their weaknesses, their ceiling and their floor. We continue today with Kelly Olynyk. For a look at the other profiles, click here.



BOSTON – The Celtics went into the playoffs last season well short of being at full strength. No player exemplified this more than Kelly Olynyk, a non-factor in postseason due to a right shoulder injury that required surgery in May.

He comes into this season facing a much stiffer route to playing time than his previous four seasons. While Jared Sullinger (Toronto) is gone, Boston brings in four-time All-Star Al Horford, in addition to returners Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and second-year big man Jordan Mickey, who is in line for a more expanded role this season.

Throw in the fact that Olynyk and the Celtics can reach terms on an extension before the start of the season (an unlikely occurrence because frankly it’s to both Boston and Olynyk’s benefit for him to be a restricted free agent next summer), and it’s clear just how important this season is to all involved.

Here’s a look at Olynyk’s ceiling as well as the floor for his game heading into this season.


The ceiling for Olynyk: Starter, Most Improved Player candidate

Kelly Olynyk has proven himself to be a much better contributor coming off the bench as opposed to starting. But no one will be shocked if Olynyk can play his way into a spot with the first group.  A 7-footer with legit 3-point range, Olynyk has shown flashes throughout his career of being a major problem for opponents because of his stretch-big skills.

And when teams have been a bit too eager in closing out or failed to box him out on a rebound, Olynyk has shown us all that “the bounce is real.”




He already ranks among the best big-man shooters all-time and needs just one made 3-pointer to join Dirk Nowitzki (1,701) and Andrea Bargnani (627) as the only 7-footers in league history with 500 or more made 3s.

In addition to making lots of 3s, Olynyk does it at a fairly efficient rate which can be seen in him shooting 40.5 percent on 3s last season which was tops among all NBA centers and made him one of just 20 players in the NBA to shoot at least 40 percent on 3s.

Although Olynyk’s defense has been considered among his biggest weaknesses, his defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions on the floor) of 97.7 was tops among Celtics players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.

If he can build off that, as well as continue to make teams pay with his long-range shooting, Olynyk could be one of the breakout performers this season for the Celtics and find himself on the short list of the NBA’s most improved players.

The bigger issue with Olynyk centers around his struggles holding position in the post as a rebounder. Because he’s a stretch big, you know he’s not going to haul in a ton of boards for you.

But he has to be better than last season when he grabbed 4.1 rebounds, which continued what has been a career regression in this area.

After averaging 5.2 boards as a rookie, he slipped to 4.7 in his second season and averaged a career-low 4.1 last season.


The floor for Olynyk: Active roster

Talk to anyone within the Celtics organization and they will not hesitate to point out the skillset that Olynyk has and how important he could potentially be for this team going forward.

Still, that’s part of the problem.

Olynyk has shown promise to be more than just a player in the rotation. He has the kind of skills that if he were to deliver them with more consistency, he would immediately become one of the team’s standout performers which would make Boston a much, much tougher team to defend.

But his game has been one marred by injuries and inconsistent play which, as you might expect, go hand-in-hand.

Even with what has been an uneven career, Olynyk has still managed to be a double-digit scorer in each of the past two seasons.

And his net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of +5.2 is tops among players logging 20 or more minutes, too.

But even if he doesn’t elevate his game defensively or become a more reliable rebounder for Boston, Olynyk won’t be suiting up in street clothes as a healthy scratch anytime soon.

Olynyk has too much talent, and when you look at this Celtics roster, he fits a clear and well-defined need.

Pace and space remain keys to what Brad Stevens is trying to do with the Celtics and Olynyk’s strengths are an ideal addition.

But as we have seen with Stevens in the past, he’s not afraid to take a player out of the starting lineup or regular rotation, and bench them from time to time.

Just as it won’t surprise anyone to see Olynyk play a more prominent role potentially as a starter, the same is true if he struggles and finds himself racking up a few DNP-CDs (did not play- coaches decision) either.

But Olynyk has too much talent to fall too far off the Celtics’ radar, especially when you look at this roster and realize there’s no other player quite like him in terms of combining size, skill and perimeter shooting.



bob
MY NOTE:  I don't see Kelly being a starter this year barring injury to Horford or injury (or trade) to Amir.  Amir is an interior defensive presence and excellent pnr player.  Horford is an excellent pnr player too, but he can also stretch the floor like Kelly.  IF, however, Amir and whatever/whomever else is traded for Boogie then I could see Kelly being moved up to starter alongside Horford, or perhaps as one of the whomevers in the Boogie trade.  In that case Horford would move to PF and fill the role Kelly currently plays off the bench, stretch 4.  Horford cannot hit the 3 like Kelly but he does so many other things better and, with Boogie in the fold, our interior would be vastly improved.  Without a trade for height/beef then Kelly fills a definite role, he is Horford-off-the-bench.

For all the observations, and talk, about Kelly's defense the bottom line is the bottom line:  the team is more efficient, points scored minus points given up, when he is on the floor.  If you want to say it's because Brad has figured out a way to cleverly hide him in the defense, fine, that doesn't change the fact that the team scores more points with him on the floor than without him.  

Injury-wise, though, he is problematic.  This is a big boy league and players are quite physical and he isn't very muscular.  He needs to stay on the floor to be effective and he has to somehow avoid the injury bug to do that.

Only Dirk and Barf-nani, huh?  That's a pretty freaking wide spectrum of talent there.  I've said all along that Kelly's calling card is his offense and he needs to be aggressive when he's out there.  If he moves more, shoots more, he'll offset whatever defensive liabilities he has, much as Dirk has.  Dirk isn't a good defender or rebounder neither.  For comparison purposes, here is the difference between Dirk and Kelly.  

Numbers are /36mpg career.


Category...........Dirk Nowitski...............Kelly Olynyk

Points------------22.5-----------------------17.7
Rebounds---------8.0------------------------8.1
Off. Rebs---------1.1------------------------1.9
FGAs-------------16.7-----------------------13.5
FG%-------------47.4-----------------------46.5
3pt FGAs----------3.4------------------------5.4
3pt FG%---------38.1-----------------------37.3 (40.5% last season)
Assists-----------2.6------------------------2.8
Blocks-------------.8-------------------------.8
Turnovers--------1.8------------------------1.9
FTAs--------------6.1------------------------3.3
FT%-------------87.9-----------------------74.6

So, the differences are not as glaring as one might think.  Dirk takes more fgas and ftas, so he scores more.  Kelly is a comparable rebounder but is a MUCH better offensive rebounder.  Dirk gets more of the easier defensive rebounds.  Dirk touches the ball A LOT more than Kelly.  The Maverick's offense goes through him more than the Celtics' offense goes through Kelly.  Is Kelly at the same place, after his 3rd year, that Dirk was after his 3rd year?  No, but the Celtics don't need to put Kelly on the floor for 38mpg like Dirk played in his 3rd year.  Also, not all players develop at the same rate.  And, after all these years in the league, Dirk still sucks on defense.  Does anybody even mention that?  Why not?  Because he scores a ton and is a go-to scorer in the clutch.  That plays right into Kelly's strength, he just needs to be uber-confident and aggressive.  SFs cannot guard him in the post, we saw that repeatedly last year.  Every time he was able to get one of them down there he started screaming for the ball, which is exactly, precisely what he should have done.  We just need more of that.  He has had several injuries which have limited his playing time and the quality of his play.  Dirk played 7021 minutes through his first 3 years while Kelly only played 4218 through 3.  Yes, Dirk earned and deserved those minutes, but also consider how all those minutes contributed to his development.  A lot of people ooh and ahh over Marcus Smart's play.  Smart has played 3475 minutes in just 2 years.  If playing time expedites development then both Dirk and Smart should be ahead of Kelly at the same point of their careers.




.

 This is a case where using 36 minutes can lead to some false conclusions. It doesn't take into consideration the level of the competition that was faced while compiling these lofty numbers.

                                                             Career                    

Nowitzki,,,,,,,,,,,, games - 1340
                         started - 1309
                         minutes per game - 35.3


Olynyk,,,,,,,,,,,,,, games - 203
                        started - 30
                        minutes per game - 20.8

  Perhaps he will turn out to be another Dirk, but I wouldn't  hasten to make that comparison based on numbers compiled for the most part, against bench players.

Swish,

I absolutely agree, but he could be the Dirk Nowitski of the NBA bench. That would definitely put him in the running for 6th Man of the Year, and that's not too bad neither, especially for a #13 pick.


bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:

bobheckler wrote:http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/make-or-break-season-ahead-kelly-olynyk?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo&yptr=yahoo









A MAKE-OR-BREAK SEASON AHEAD FOR KELLY OLYNYK?



By A. Sherrod Blakely


August 23, 2016 2:54 PM




Every weekday until Sept. 7, we'll take a look at each player at the Celtics roster: Their strengths and their weaknesses, their ceiling and their floor. We continue today with Kelly Olynyk. For a look at the other profiles, click here.



BOSTON – The Celtics went into the playoffs last season well short of being at full strength. No player exemplified this more than Kelly Olynyk, a non-factor in postseason due to a right shoulder injury that required surgery in May.

He comes into this season facing a much stiffer route to playing time than his previous four seasons. While Jared Sullinger (Toronto) is gone, Boston brings in four-time All-Star Al Horford, in addition to returners Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and second-year big man Jordan Mickey, who is in line for a more expanded role this season.

Throw in the fact that Olynyk and the Celtics can reach terms on an extension before the start of the season (an unlikely occurrence because frankly it’s to both Boston and Olynyk’s benefit for him to be a restricted free agent next summer), and it’s clear just how important this season is to all involved.

Here’s a look at Olynyk’s ceiling as well as the floor for his game heading into this season.


The ceiling for Olynyk: Starter, Most Improved Player candidate

Kelly Olynyk has proven himself to be a much better contributor coming off the bench as opposed to starting. But no one will be shocked if Olynyk can play his way into a spot with the first group.  A 7-footer with legit 3-point range, Olynyk has shown flashes throughout his career of being a major problem for opponents because of his stretch-big skills.

And when teams have been a bit too eager in closing out or failed to box him out on a rebound, Olynyk has shown us all that “the bounce is real.”




He already ranks among the best big-man shooters all-time and needs just one made 3-pointer to join Dirk Nowitzki (1,701) and Andrea Bargnani (627) as the only 7-footers in league history with 500 or more made 3s.

In addition to making lots of 3s, Olynyk does it at a fairly efficient rate which can be seen in him shooting 40.5 percent on 3s last season which was tops among all NBA centers and made him one of just 20 players in the NBA to shoot at least 40 percent on 3s.

Although Olynyk’s defense has been considered among his biggest weaknesses, his defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions on the floor) of 97.7 was tops among Celtics players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.

If he can build off that, as well as continue to make teams pay with his long-range shooting, Olynyk could be one of the breakout performers this season for the Celtics and find himself on the short list of the NBA’s most improved players.

The bigger issue with Olynyk centers around his struggles holding position in the post as a rebounder. Because he’s a stretch big, you know he’s not going to haul in a ton of boards for you.

But he has to be better than last season when he grabbed 4.1 rebounds, which continued what has been a career regression in this area.

After averaging 5.2 boards as a rookie, he slipped to 4.7 in his second season and averaged a career-low 4.1 last season.


The floor for Olynyk: Active roster

Talk to anyone within the Celtics organization and they will not hesitate to point out the skillset that Olynyk has and how important he could potentially be for this team going forward.

Still, that’s part of the problem.

Olynyk has shown promise to be more than just a player in the rotation. He has the kind of skills that if he were to deliver them with more consistency, he would immediately become one of the team’s standout performers which would make Boston a much, much tougher team to defend.

But his game has been one marred by injuries and inconsistent play which, as you might expect, go hand-in-hand.

Even with what has been an uneven career, Olynyk has still managed to be a double-digit scorer in each of the past two seasons.

And his net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of +5.2 is tops among players logging 20 or more minutes, too.

But even if he doesn’t elevate his game defensively or become a more reliable rebounder for Boston, Olynyk won’t be suiting up in street clothes as a healthy scratch anytime soon.

Olynyk has too much talent, and when you look at this Celtics roster, he fits a clear and well-defined need.

Pace and space remain keys to what Brad Stevens is trying to do with the Celtics and Olynyk’s strengths are an ideal addition.

But as we have seen with Stevens in the past, he’s not afraid to take a player out of the starting lineup or regular rotation, and bench them from time to time.

Just as it won’t surprise anyone to see Olynyk play a more prominent role potentially as a starter, the same is true if he struggles and finds himself racking up a few DNP-CDs (did not play- coaches decision) either.

But Olynyk has too much talent to fall too far off the Celtics’ radar, especially when you look at this roster and realize there’s no other player quite like him in terms of combining size, skill and perimeter shooting.



bob
MY NOTE:  I don't see Kelly being a starter this year barring injury to Horford or injury (or trade) to Amir.  Amir is an interior defensive presence and excellent pnr player.  Horford is an excellent pnr player too, but he can also stretch the floor like Kelly.  IF, however, Amir and whatever/whomever else is traded for Boogie then I could see Kelly being moved up to starter alongside Horford, or perhaps as one of the whomevers in the Boogie trade.  In that case Horford would move to PF and fill the role Kelly currently plays off the bench, stretch 4.  Horford cannot hit the 3 like Kelly but he does so many other things better and, with Boogie in the fold, our interior would be vastly improved.  Without a trade for height/beef then Kelly fills a definite role, he is Horford-off-the-bench.

For all the observations, and talk, about Kelly's defense the bottom line is the bottom line:  the team is more efficient, points scored minus points given up, when he is on the floor.  If you want to say it's because Brad has figured out a way to cleverly hide him in the defense, fine, that doesn't change the fact that the team scores more points with him on the floor than without him.  

Injury-wise, though, he is problematic.  This is a big boy league and players are quite physical and he isn't very muscular.  He needs to stay on the floor to be effective and he has to somehow avoid the injury bug to do that.

Only Dirk and Barf-nani, huh?  That's a pretty freaking wide spectrum of talent there.  I've said all along that Kelly's calling card is his offense and he needs to be aggressive when he's out there.  If he moves more, shoots more, he'll offset whatever defensive liabilities he has, much as Dirk has.  Dirk isn't a good defender or rebounder neither.  For comparison purposes, here is the difference between Dirk and Kelly.  

Numbers are /36mpg career.


Category...........Dirk Nowitski...............Kelly Olynyk

Points------------22.5-----------------------17.7
Rebounds---------8.0------------------------8.1
Off. Rebs---------1.1------------------------1.9
FGAs-------------16.7-----------------------13.5
FG%-------------47.4-----------------------46.5
3pt FGAs----------3.4------------------------5.4
3pt FG%---------38.1-----------------------37.3 (40.5% last season)
Assists-----------2.6------------------------2.8
Blocks-------------.8-------------------------.8
Turnovers--------1.8------------------------1.9
FTAs--------------6.1------------------------3.3
FT%-------------87.9-----------------------74.6

So, the differences are not as glaring as one might think.  Dirk takes more fgas and ftas, so he scores more.  Kelly is a comparable rebounder but is a MUCH better offensive rebounder.  Dirk gets more of the easier defensive rebounds.  Dirk touches the ball A LOT more than Kelly.  The Maverick's offense goes through him more than the Celtics' offense goes through Kelly.  Is Kelly at the same place, after his 3rd year, that Dirk was after his 3rd year?  No, but the Celtics don't need to put Kelly on the floor for 38mpg like Dirk played in his 3rd year.  Also, not all players develop at the same rate.  And, after all these years in the league, Dirk still sucks on defense.  Does anybody even mention that?  Why not?  Because he scores a ton and is a go-to scorer in the clutch.  That plays right into Kelly's strength, he just needs to be uber-confident and aggressive.  SFs cannot guard him in the post, we saw that repeatedly last year.  Every time he was able to get one of them down there he started screaming for the ball, which is exactly, precisely what he should have done.  We just need more of that.  He has had several injuries which have limited his playing time and the quality of his play.  Dirk played 7021 minutes through his first 3 years while Kelly only played 4218 through 3.  Yes, Dirk earned and deserved those minutes, but also consider how all those minutes contributed to his development.  A lot of people ooh and ahh over Marcus Smart's play.  Smart has played 3475 minutes in just 2 years.  If playing time expedites development then both Dirk and Smart should be ahead of Kelly at the same point of their careers.




.

 This is a case where using 36 minutes can lead to some false conclusions. It doesn't take into consideration the level of the competition that was faced while compiling these lofty numbers.

                                                             Career                    

Nowitzki,,,,,,,,,,,, games - 1340
                         started - 1309
                         minutes per game - 35.3


Olynyk,,,,,,,,,,,,,, games - 203
                        started - 30
                        minutes per game - 20.8

  Perhaps he will turn out to be another Dirk, but I wouldn't  hasten to make that comparison based on numbers compiled for the most part, against bench players.

Swish,

I absolutely agree, but he could be the Dirk Nowitski of the NBA bench.  That would definitely put him in the running for 6th Man of the Year, and that's not too bad neither, especially for a #13 pick.


bob


.

Sounds good to me also, bob

swish

Dirk is a future hall of fame player.

I have seen nothing that would lead me to believe that KO can or should be compared to him.

Teams will leave KO open and he can make 3 pointers. However if teams decided to check him KO would struggle to score. On the other hand how many times have you seen Dirk swish shots from everywhere with guys all over him?

There is no comparison here.

KO is destined to be a rotation player. For three years he is injured each year. I do not see a tremendous amount of upside. This is a pivotal year for him because the Celtics already drafted the French kid who has a lot more game than KO. KO will have to have a real meaningful increase in his production to get a new contract next year.

I hope he will be fully recovered from the shoulder injury.

dboss

Anyone can twist stats anyway they want, nice kid, he just can't play, being able to hit a 3 isn't enough to get you minutes in this league if the rest of your game is as weak as Kellys.