Boston Celtics season predictions: Kyrie Irving's scoring average, Marcus Smart's Sixth Man candidacy and more

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Boston Celtics season predictions: Kyrie Irving's scoring average, Marcus Smart's Sixth Man candidacy and more



Posted October 17, 2017 at 08:00 AM | Updated October 17, 2017 at 08:44 AM







By: Jay King



Real basketball finally returns Tuesday night when the new-look Boston Celtics meet the Cleveland Cavaliers in an opener soaked with drama. With the regular season back, it's time for some bold (and not so bold) predictions.


Tatum plays more minutes than Brown

https://twitter.com/_/status/882043940609904640

Do I have a strong opinion on this prediction? Not really. I suspect Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be close in overall playing time, but I’m impressed by the quiet maturity to Tatum’s game – not to mention his rebounding ability, which will help him play some power forward in small lineups. Rookies almost always enter the NBA as net minuses, but, theoretically, Tatum should fit well next to Boston’s best players.

I’m also very intrigued by what he’d look like as a go-to scorer against backup wings, but the Celtics may not give him that role.  While Marcus Morris is injured, Tatum appears likely to start. Still…



AP photo


The closing lineup will be...


Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris and Al Horford. At this point of the season (read: before the Celtics have played a single game), I’m pretty sure Boston’s best four players are Irving, Hayward, Horford and Smart. The other spot might be up for grabs if Brown or Tatum develop nicely, but I suspect it’s Morris’ to lose.

Whoever Brad Stevens picks in that fifth slot, the Celtics will be mobile, versatile and long with playmakers all over the court. They could potentially have some really powerful lineups. I may be completely brain dead, but I also believe…



AP photo


Boston's defense will improve

“What?” you ask.

“Are you nuts?” you scream.

“They lost Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Amir Johnson from a totally mediocre defense. They’re likely starting a 19-year-old and 20-year-old on opening night. They’ll need to rely on youngsters all over the court while acclimating a roster filled with complete strangers,” you holler into the night sky.

Hesitantly, I whisper back, “I’m buying into their team length, athleticism and versatility. I’m excited to watch Aron Baynes grapple with large men. And even though I don’t think the Celtics will have an elite defense, I think they’ll force a lot of turnovers while besting their 12th-ranked finish from last year.”
   
On the flip side...





The Celtics' 3PT% will be below average

This may seem far-fetched because, due to the way the Celtics play, it felt like they were sharpshooters last season. In reality, they finished 14th in 3-point percentage then lost four of their top shooters: Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Kelly Olynyk. Irving and Hayward will replace some of that shooting, of course, but the Celtics don’t have much proven 3-point shooting beyond their three stars. They’ll still take a lot of triples and make a lot of triples, but I just don’t think they’ll hit at a great clip.  Really, they didn’t last season, either.

But…




Irving will take more than 7 3PT per game

By any metric, Kyrie Irving’s a great shooter. But the Celtics will want him to fire away more than he ever has.

Irving attempted 6.1 threes per game last season – a career high, but still well shy of the volume similar point guards hoisted. Stephen Curry (10.zero), Kyle Lowry (7.eight), Damian Lillard (7.7), Kemba Walker (7.6), and, yes, Isaiah Thomas (8.5) all spent far more time behind the arc.

Irving’s just as gifted a shooter as most of those guys, but hasn’t shifted his shot profile in the same manner. If he dumps a couple of midrange jumpers per game for more long balls, he could be in for the most efficient season of his career.


Irving will average 26.5 points per game

If you want to bet on Irving winning the scoring title, I won’t blame you. He averaged 35.2 points per 36 minutes last season without LeBron James on the court. He’s replacing a point guard, Isaiah Thomas, who finished third in scoring average last season. He’s one of the world’s most gifted finishers, he’ll be THE GUY for the first time in years, and he’ll be playing along two of the NBA’s most unselfish stars in Gordon Hayward and Al Horford.

But – call me naive if you want – I see these Celtics developing into more of an equal-opportunity offense. Irving won’t turn into John Stockton or anything like that, but I think he’ll exchange some of his isos for sequences like this:    

THIS is what Stevens had in mind when adding Hayward and Kyrie to the team pic.twitter.com/j2KMaIUpxF

— BBALLBREAKDOWN (@bballbreakdown) October 17, 2017
I’m guessing Irving will average 26.5 points and 6.5 assists per game. But I also predicted the Celtics would lead the league in defense last season, so, really, how can I be trusted?


Hayward will lead the Celtics in plus-minus



Why Hayward? Well, he might be Boston’s best overall player. The starting lineup should be at least good. With Stevens likely to stagger Irving and Hayward’s playing time, I suspect Hayward will also spend a lot of time with the bench – and I believe there’s some “Kyle Lowry + bench” lite potential there.

Smart and Terry Rozier were Boston’s best two-man defensive combination last season, but couldn’t sustain enough offense during their regular-season minutes. Enter Skinny Smart, More Experienced Rozier, and an All-Star wing who can run pick-and-rolls and drill 3-pointers while adding to the defensive production. The Celtics could force millions (MILLIONS!) of turnovers when their backup guards come in the game; Hayward will benefit with transition opportunities that sometimes avoided him in Utah’s slow-paced attack.


Smart wins Sixth Man of the Year



The Sixth Man of the Year award generally goes to a scorer. I know that. So does Andre Iguodala, who has been the world’s best sub through most of the Warriors’ golden era but still can’t convince voters he’s more deserving than chuckers like Jamal Crawford.

Given the history of the award, Marcus Smart doesn’t fit the mold. Whatever. He never does. He’ll still play huge minutes off the Celtics bench and, after dropping a layer of weight this summer, should be due for the best season of his career. I don’t know how improved Smart’s shooting will be, if at all, but preseason sold me on the rest of the Skinny Marcus experience.


The Celtics will win 51 games

I know, I know. You think they added more talent and, therefore, should eclipse last season’s win total. I won’t be shocked if that happens but, historically, playing a lot of young guys comes with growing pains. Though the Celtics won 53 games last season (which I predicted by the way, no big deal), they needed to win an inordinate amount of close games to reach that total. They lost a lot of spot-up shooting and a lot of corporate knowledge. There’s a higher ceiling for this year’s team, but I just don’t know if that will lead to more regular-season wins.  I’m excited to follow along, though. This team should be a blast to watch.



bob




.

Celts will win more than just 51 games.

All theoretical assumptions.

Dboss

Our point differential last year was crap, this year it should improve. With a larger differential, the result will be less close games.

I know it's hard to extrapolate anything from preseason, but this team plays well together.

51 wins is a pretty low estimate. They look better than last year, and offensively they'll be hotter. I say 58 wins.


KJ