4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

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4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

Post by Matty on Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:23 pm

With Smarts deal all taken care of i'm free to worry about things way down the road, like the Celtics and what will/might/could happen.

next season could end up even more nerve racking that this summers worrying about Smarts deal.

Here's some things to worry about

Our for possible draft picks

Ours- likely at the bottom of the draft depending on how many games the Warriors feel like winning in the regular season (so 29th or 30 is quite likely)
Clippers- (lotto protected), Memphis- (1-8 protected). Sacto- (#1) protected).

I was looking at a site that gave the odds for each team winning the title, The Clippers had the 19th best chance, 12th in the west, in other words its being predicted that they will end up where their draft pick would fall under protection. The Grizzlies were expected to be bottom feeders as well, tied with the Suns on odds to win the title with only 5 teams with worse chances. One of those teams was of course the Kings, who shared a 3 way tied with Atlanta & Brooklyn as least likely to win.

In other words, according to these odds, we are facing the probability of going home in the offseason with only our own draft pick, and it not likely giving us someone who could truly help keep us in the finals year after year right away. Of course, the games still need to be played, and the ping pong balls must be ping ponged, but its something we can worry about and feel justified in doing so.

Keeping the old gang together.
Morris contract expires, so does Rozier and Theis, Irving- who knows what he'll do, but he has a player option and could opt out and go somewhere else or spend a year or two sailing the seas looking for the actual ends of the earth, or he could re-up with us, we just don't know. Horford, also has a player option, but in my mind, he's not getting anyone else to pay him more, so I think he's keeping his deal, so I just bring myself to worry about him yet.

We are going to be paying a lot in Taxes
I'm planning on being in Boston this upcoming season for a game, mebbe two. i'm hoping the team doesn't raise prices to help pay for all the taxes they'll be paying No

Cousins being back in old form by June

pale [b][b][/b][/b]
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Re: 4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

Post by Shamrock1000 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:02 pm

Matty wrote:With Smarts deal all taken care of i'm free to worry about things way down the road, like the Celtics and what will/might/could happen.

 next season could end up even more nerve racking that this summers worrying about Smarts deal.

Here's some things to worry about

Our for possible draft picks
 
Ours-  likely at the bottom of the draft depending on how many games the Warriors feel like winning in the regular season (so 29th or 30 is quite likely)
Clippers- (lotto protected),  Memphis-  (1-8 protected).  Sacto- (#1) protected).

I was looking at a site that gave the odds for each team winning the title, The Clippers had the 19th best chance, 12th in the west, in other words its being predicted that they will end up where their draft pick would fall under protection. The Grizzlies were expected to be bottom feeders as well, tied with the Suns on odds to win the title with only 5 teams with worse chances. One of those teams was of course the Kings, who shared a 3 way tied with Atlanta & Brooklyn as least likely to win.

In other words, according to these odds, we are facing the probability of going home in the offseason with only our own draft pick, and it not likely giving us someone who could truly help keep us in the finals year after year right away. Of course, the games still need to be played, and the ping pong balls must be ping ponged, but its something we can worry about and feel justified in doing so.

Keeping the old gang together.
Morris contract expires, so does Rozier and Theis, Irving- who knows what he'll do, but he has a player option and could opt out and go somewhere else or spend a year or two sailing the seas looking for the actual ends of the earth, or he could re-up with us, we just don't know. Horford, also has a player option, but in my mind, he's not getting anyone else to pay him more, so I think he's keeping his deal, so I just bring myself to worry about him yet.

We are going to be paying a lot in Taxes
I'm planning on being in Boston this upcoming season for a game, mebbe two.  i'm hoping the team doesn't raise prices to help pay for all the taxes they'll be paying No

Cousins being back in old form by June

pale

You lost me Matty... My understanding is that the only way we don't get the Sacto pick is if is #1. Even if they end up with worst record in the NBA, they will only have a 14% chance of getting the number one pick under the new lotto system. Taking your info at face value, Sacto, Atlanta, and Brooklyn are tied for having the highest chance of ending up with the worst record. Thus, for simplicity sake, let's say that they each have a 33% chance of ending up with the worst record. In reality, that chance will be lower since more than those three teams are in play for the worst record, but for arguments sake, lets say there is a 33% chance. Thus, the chance of Sacto ending up with the number 1 pick is 0.14 X 0.33 = 0.0462 = 4.6%, and therefore the chances of the Sacto pick conveying to the Celtics is 100 -4.6 = 95.4%. I like those odds.

Looks to me like the gang will stay together this year. Having said that, I wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics moved Morris for picks (likely 2nd rounder/s maybe late 1st rounder??). It is not that I think Morris needs to go, but moving his 5 million salary for pick/s would get the team under the luxury tax line, thus delaying the  inevitable repeater tax another year. Also, his minutes might be reduced with Gordon returning and the two J's deserving more minutes.

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Re: 4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

Post by bobheckler on Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:48 pm

Here are the Celtics' picks:


2019 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 1st round pick to Boston (via Memphis) protected for selections 1-14 in 2019 and 1-14 in 2020; if the L.A. Clippers have not conveyed a 1st round pick to Boston by 2020, then the L.A. Clippers will instead convey their 2022 2nd round pick to Boston [L.A. Clippers-Memphis, 2/18/2016; Boston-Memphis, 6/23/2016]

2019 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-8 in 2019 and 1-6 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021 [Boston-Memphis-New Orleans, 1/12/2015]

2019 first round draft pick from Philadelphia or Sacramento
Boston will receive the more favorable of Philadelphia's 2019 1st round pick protected for selection 1 and Sacramento's 2019 1st round pick (via Philadelphia) protected for selection 1 and Philadelphia will receive the less favorable or the protected of these two picks [Philadelphia-Sacramento, 7/9/2015; Boston-Philadelphia, 6/19/2017]

2019 second round draft pick to Memphis
Boston's 2019 2nd round pick to Memphis (via Miami) protected for selections 31-55 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Memphis will be extinguished) [Boston-Miami, 7/27/2015; Charlotte-Memphis-Miami, 2/16/2016]



bob


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Re: 4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

Post by Matty on Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:03 pm

Shamrock1000 wrote:
pale

You lost me Matty... My understanding is that the only way we don't get the Sacto pick is if is #1. Even if they end up with worst record in the NBA, they will only have a 14% chance of getting the number one pick under the new lotto system. Taking your info at face value, Sacto, Atlanta, and Brooklyn are tied for having the highest chance of ending up with the worst record. Thus, for simplicity sake, let's say that they each have a 33% chance of ending up with the worst record. In reality, that chance will be lower since more than those three teams are in play for the worst record, but for arguments sake, lets say there is a 33% chance. Thus, the chance of Sacto ending up with the number 1 pick is 0.14 X 0.33 = 0.0462 = 4.6%, and therefore the chances of the Sacto pick conveying to the Celtics is 100 -4.6 = 95.4%. I like those odds.

Looks to me like the gang will stay together this year. Having said that, I wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics moved Morris for picks (likely 2nd rounder/s maybe late 1st rounder??). It is not that I think Morris needs to go, but moving his 5 million salary for pick/s would get the team under the luxury tax line, thus delaying the  inevitable repeater tax another year. Also, his minutes might be reduced with Gordon returning and the two J's deserving more minutes.[/quote]

Shamrock you are right about the sacto pick, my post was made in jest somewhat, we just got done sweating over Smart and I'm already looking for other things to worry about. But it was also highlighting the uncertainty we could face again next year. Next summer could be one of Danny's busiest ever, Not really our problem though and it'll make for some very good convivial conversations here .
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Re: 4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

Post by kdp59 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:11 pm

my guess is we end up with the kings pick AND Memphis pick as well. Memphis is NOT tanking and Conley is coming back healthy with Gasol. They may not make the playoffs in the West, but they won;t be one of the worst 8 teams in the league, IMO.

so I would guess Danny goes into the draft with #3, 11 and 29 picks.

Look for him to try to package down to TWO top 10 picks.


FA's who stay I think depends on how our season ends.

scenario 1:

we win the Championship.

in this case Danny will be under pressure to keep as much of the team together. So Irving opts out and resigns for his max deal. this will require Rozier to be let go, even as a RFA (assuming he gets an offer over $10 M per year).

I also see Horford opting OUT in this case and signing a 3 year deal at a lower per year average. So instead of around $30M I can see Horford doing a 3 year deal at around $60M total.

Morris swill leave and Theis will stay


Scenario 2

we bow out of the playoff BEFORE the finals

in this case, I see a chance that Irving opts out and moves on. Rozier will be Danny's priority then as RFA and in the teams control.

Horford may opt in here and wait to see what happens in 2019-20.

in either case I see Danny drafting Morris and either Rozier or Irving replacement in that draft
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Re: 4 or 1? Things to be stressed about..

Post by Shamrock1000 on Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:16 pm

Matty wrote:
Shamrock1000 wrote:
pale

You lost me Matty... My understanding is that the only way we don't get the Sacto pick is if is #1. Even if they end up with worst record in the NBA, they will only have a 14% chance of getting the number one pick under the new lotto system. Taking your info at face value, Sacto, Atlanta, and Brooklyn are tied for having the highest chance of ending up with the worst record. Thus, for simplicity sake, let's say that they each have a 33% chance of ending up with the worst record. In reality, that chance will be lower since more than those three teams are in play for the worst record, but for arguments sake, lets say there is a 33% chance. Thus, the chance of Sacto ending up with the number 1 pick is 0.14 X 0.33 = 0.0462 = 4.6%, and therefore the chances of the Sacto pick conveying to the Celtics is 100 -4.6 = 95.4%. I like those odds.

Looks to me like the gang will stay together this year. Having said that, I wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics moved Morris for picks (likely 2nd rounder/s maybe late 1st rounder??). It is not that I think Morris needs to go, but moving his 5 million salary for pick/s would get the team under the luxury tax line, thus delaying the  inevitable repeater tax another year. Also, his minutes might be reduced with Gordon returning and the two J's deserving more minutes.

Shamrock you are right about the sacto pick,  my post was made in jest somewhat,  we just got done sweating over Smart and I'm already looking for other things to worry about.  But it was also highlighting the uncertainty we could face again next year. Next summer could be one of Danny's busiest ever, Not really our problem though and it'll make for some very good convivial conversations here . [/quote]

I hear you - I am already worried about paying the two J's!! That is just what we do as fans - obsessively worry about players and organizations that don't even know we exist. Nonethelss, it is kind of fun to think about what we would do if we were in charge...

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