Brad Stevens on the 3-pointer’s future: Think deeper

https://www.bostonherald.com/2018/12/29/brad-stevens-on-the-3-pointers-future-think-deeper/



Brad Stevens on the 3-pointer’s future: Think deeper




BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 6: Celtics head coach Brad Stevens directs Boston against the New York Knicks during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts on December 6, 2018. (Staff Photo By Christopher Evans/Boston Herald)



By MARK MURPHY | markr.murphy@bostonherald.com | Boston Herald
December 29, 2018 at 4:00 pm



As one of the most progressive coaches in the most forward-thinking league in professional sports, Brad Stevens has his eyes on the outer reaches, literally.

He insists that every player on the floor be able to shoot, from Marcus Smart’s low-percentage gunslinging to, now, the sight of Daniel Theis regularly spotting up for 3-pointers. You get the sense that rookie Robert Williams’ offensive future is headed out to the arc, too.

But when asked about the future of the 3-point shot, Stevens isn’t just thinking of a day when every player will be able to shoot from 24 feet. He looks at Kyrie Irving, the only Celtic capable of regularly hitting from much deeper, and envisions a day when all of the best shooters will have this kind of range.

“Twenty-eight, 30 feet I would say is the answer I would give,” the Celtics coach said when asked about the future of the 3-pointer.

“When you think about how freely people shoot it now off the dribble, how bigs can be going away from the basket, set their feet and make a 23-footer – I just think it will continue,” he said. “Range will continue to be expanded. It will be an even bigger emphasis to defend it. That’s one of the things that makes it so hard. Layups are I’m sure up as well, and I don’t know that for a fact, but I’m guessing they’re up from 10, 15 years ago. Much more space, and it’s really hard to do it. I’d be shocked if it gets stopped anytime soon.”

With defenses tailored more than ever to stopping the three, the Celtics continue to push the concept, trailing only Houston and Milwaukee in attempted 3-pointers, and tied with Minnesota for 3-point percentage.

They’re also succeeding more than most at stopping the deep shot, and are not only third in the league in defensive rating, but also third in opponent’s 3-point percentage (.330).

As defenses become more sophisticated in guarding the 3-pointer, there’s only one way for the shot to go, according to Stevens.

The best shooters will continue expanding their range.


“For sure. No question, that’s the Steph Curry effect, right?” said Stevens. “When you pick up Kyrie Irving, Steph Curry, Kemba Walker, at 22 feet you’re dead. You’d better pick them up higher than that, because they’re so good scoring off the dribble into their shot from 25, 26 feet and in, I just think that’s the game right now.

“And that’s something that is stretching defenses out, and the best offenses get to the rim because of that,” he said. “That’s what we’re trying to get better at.”

Irving, supremely confident in his own range, doesn’t see that ability in many others.

“Some people think they have the range, but for the majority, only a few have the skill,” said the Celtics guard. “The transcendence of it, the importance of it, transcending certain positions in our league, the emphasis on it, who knows.”

Asked about how often he practices shooting from 28, 30 feet, Irving said, “Pregame, when I work out sometimes. It’s not a normal shot that’s in my repertoire, but I can go to it when I so choose. Just being that far away from the basket – the closer you can get to the 3-point line the better. But there are skillful individuals who can shoot that far out in our league.”

Al Horford, whose conversion as a 3-pointer shooter didn’t begin until he started playing for Stevens, never would have even pictured himself shooting a standard 3-pointer.

“When I came into the NBA I don’t even remember dreaming of shooting three’s,” said Horford, who shook his head when asked about Stevens’ ultra-deep vision.

“Man, I don’t see it. It has taken on a lot of importance, but I just don’t see it getting that deep,” he said. “It definitely has changed a lot. It’s just hard to grasp it getting even deeper. It’s a far shot to begin with. I know guys are making it look so easy now. (But) there’s very few with that range.”

Horford thinks the shot may have hit a ceiling.

“It is becoming a very offensive-minded game,” he said. “But I’m having a hard time thinking about how much it can change unless they have some rule changes with scoring and stuff.”

Instead, Horford can envision another kind of fluctuation when dealing with defenses that are increasingly focused on stopping threes and layups. To get himself going, Horford will look for an old tried-and-true mid-range jumper. Modern defenses have made this a particularly available shot.

“As much as they don’t like people taking it, I think it’s starting to come back a little bit,” said Horford. “Even Golden State, Durant takes a lot from mid-range. (Damien) Lillard and (C.J.) McCollum play in mid-range a lot. I know the numbers go against it, but maybe the mid-range will come back again.



bob
MY NOTE: If this is true then maybe we should consider moving the frito line back to 18-20' and expand the paint (or maybe shrink the paint, so defenses can sag more without being called for zone defense violations?). I blame Steph Curry for this the same way I blame Kobe for turning the NBA into a one-on-one schoolyard game instead of a team one. After Kobe everybody wanted to be Kobe and model their game after his. Now everybody wants to shoot from 30' like Curry.


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Marcus Smart is shooting almost 33% from deep!

If the NBA adds a 4 point shot all beats are off.

Globetrotters games have a 4-point line.

Maybe they're onto something.

That and the bucket of confetti...

What do you think of both widening and lengthening the court to better accommodate the distance that these guys can shoot from as well as adding a four point shot at perhaps 30 feet?

wideclyde wrote:What do you think of both widening and lengthening the court to better accommodate the distance that these guys can shoot from as well as adding a four point shot at perhaps 30 feet?

wideclyde

Over the years I've thought about how the size of the court has shrunk because of the speed of the modern athlete and like you wondered about an increase in court size (football also). I still think about it but now wonder if the 3 point shot might have been all that was neccessary to enlarge the playing area. My tapes and memories of the 50's and 60's clearly show how the game has moved from an inside dominated game to a game that is now played 35 or so percent from beyond the arc. Perhaps a little off season experimentation would be interesting - but as of now the overall stats of 2018 are very similar to those of the 80's - other than a huge shift to the taking and making of the 3 pointer.

swish