Celtics are not championship contenders without Kyrie Irving

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/celtics-not-championship-contenders-without-061545020.html



Celtics are not championship contenders without Kyrie Irving



Chris Forsberg,NBC Sports Boston
11 hours ago



BOSTON - Are the Boston Celtics better without Kyrie Irving? The question is both fair, and yet absurd.

The Celtics improved to 10-2 without Irving this season after Wednesday's 118-110 triumph over the Detroit Pistons at TD Garden. It'd be easy for a casual fan to look at Boston's record sans Kyrie this year, combined with the postseason run it made without him last season, and deduce that maybe there's something to the notion that Boston plays better without Irving.

A deeper dive reveals a team that struggles mightily, offensively, without its All-Star point guard and, while players have routinely stepped up in his absence, much of the success this season has come against underwhelming competition.

That won't stop the TV panel discussions and sports radio chatter from suggesting that Irving is somehow holding back his teammates when he's on the court. While there's certainly something to the notion that Boston is still quite obviously trying to figure out how to maximize all its talent when Irving is on the floor, the numbers paint a picture of a team that would ultimately struggle to maintain its success without him.

Celtics coach Brad Stevens was asked about the notion after Wednesday's win and bottom-lined it.

"We need Kyrie to be the best version of ourselves," said Stevens, hammering home the notion that Boston needs Irving's talents if this team is to be competitive in a beefed-up Eastern Conference.

"And we all need to be - we all need to consistently play better as a group," said Stevens. "We've done that at times, and we've rode Kyrie in a lot of cases, and he's carried us in a lot of games. And we need everybody at their fullest and there's no question about it, that he's going to be a guy that is going to make a ton of plays for us moving forward.  We just need him to get healthy."


Let's start with a glimpse at Boston's game log without Irving this season:

Date | Opp | Result | Opp current record
Nov. 9, 2018 @ UTH L, 123-115 32-25Dec. 10, 2018 vs. NOP W, 113-100 25-33Jan. 2, 2019 vs. MIN W, 115-102 27-30Jan. 4, 2019 vs. DAL W, 114-93 26-31Jan. 14, 2019 @ BKN L, 109-102 30-29Jan. 23, 2019 vs. CLE W, 123-103 12-46Jan. 28, 2019 vs. BKN W, 112-104 30-29Jan. 30, 2019 vs. CHA W, 126-94 27-29Feb. 5, 2019 @ CLE W, 103-96 12-46Feb. 12, 2019 @ PHI W, 112-109 37-21Feb. 13, 2019 vs. DET W, 118-110 26-30

The two Kyrie-less losses came against two current playoff teams with a combined winning percentage of .534. The 10 wins came against nine teams - three of which are currently playoff bound - with a combined winning percentage of .457. Put another way, more than half of the wins have come against lottery teams.

The more telling stat here is Boston's overall on/off splits this season. With Irving on the court, Boston's offensive rating is a team-best 113.8 and the team owns a net rating of plus-8.9 overall in his 1,526 minutes of floor time. Boston's offensive rating plummets to 105 - a mark that would rank them 27th behind the Cleveland Cavaliers if maintained for the season - with a team-worst off-court net rating of plus-1.8 during the 1,278 minutes with Irving off the floor.

Those net ratings suggest that, when Irving is on the court, the Celtics play at a level somewhere between conference leaders Milwaukee and Golden State, and, when he's on the bench, they are a seventh or eighth seed at best.

This is not to suggest that everything is sunshine and puppy dogs when Irving is on the court. Boston's assist percentage dips when Irving is on the court, confirming the notion that he either can be a ball-dominant guard or that teammates can get caught sitting and watching for him to make plays.

Boston is almost forced to move the ball more without Irving and that can lead to nights like Tuesday where six players land in double figures, including the entire starting 5.

But you need only look at last week's eyesore loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, the one in which the Celtics fumbled away a 28-point lead in a game Irving suffered a knee injury in the first half. In crunch time, with Los Angeles playing with confidence, the Celtics didn't have a player they could lean on to score much-needed crunch-time hoops.

For all of Boston's talents, Irving is still one of the most clutch players in the NBA. He's the sort of individual talent that a team needs in the postseason when defenses clamp down and those late-game buckets are harder to generate. Boston's younger players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have certainly proven themselves capable of elevating on a big stage but Game 7 against the Cavaliers last year showed the value of having proven winners on the court in big-game moments.

Whenever Irving returns, and it seems likely he'll be ready to go when Boston visits Milwaukee coming out of the break next Thursday night, the team absolutely has to keep working to find ways for all its players to thrive even when everyone is healthy. Boston has benefited from players filling voids but they need to get impactful contributions even when minutes may not be as plentiful across the board.

It's a nice luxury that Boston can not only survive but play some inspired basketball when Irving is out. But it's simply not sustainable, particularly if this team was routinely matching up with playoff-caliber talent, the sort if will see often in the East playoffs this year.

The Celtics are not better without Kyrie Irving. They're different and they have played well, but the solution to their consistency woes this year runs deeper than simply one player and whether he's on or off the court.

Boston needs Irving to reach their ultimate goals. They also need the rest of the roster to play to their maximum potential, too. We  haven't seen that enough this season and it might just be the key to Boston's overall success this season.



bob



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This a balanced take, as I would expect from Forsberg: he reiterates the common sense view that there should be no question the team is better with a top 10 player than without that player, yet acknowledges that their record is better without him and the possibility that the ball moves more/better without Kyrie. His use of numbers is not as 'deep' as he claims though. For one thing, he didn't break down the percentage of wins against winning and losing teams when Kyrie plays. There are 30 teams in the league, 16 go to the playoffs and 14 don't, and currently exactly 15 teams, or 50% of the league, is below 0.500. So, I would bet approximately half of the Kyrie-led wins came against lottery/sub 0.500 teams. He also ignores last year and the playoffs, i.e. when they won al otf games against 'play-off' teams. Finally, the splits with and without Kyrie could be deceiving, as he plays most of his minutes with the best line-ups.

My feeling is they have a better chance of winning it all with Kyrie. However, I don't necessarily think the other side of the argument can be considered foolish or nonsense. The 'small sample size' is not that small anymore, and, as we have seen, the numbers can be presented in ways to support both sides.

Even though I have given my thoughts on results from Cleveland and Boston on Kyrie, I do believe we have a better chance winning it all with him at this point than without him, provided the Kyrie and the rest of the team learn to play together. Kyrie needs to adjust to getting the team last night to play that way with him. If he is the leader he needs to figure it out. The team last night needs to know that also have to make some adjustments with him. No doubt he is our best player. He has to see what they do without him and maybe give them a little credit for what they can do. Leaders aren't anointed by themselves. If you are a leader if will come to the forefront.

It only makes sense your best chance at winning should come with your best player in the lineup.

That ought to be the case here. But I don't think that can be said with absolute conviction given the events of last season, and this season so far.

There are always exceptions. There have been cases of 'addition by subtraction' before. Be it a top talent who bogs a team down through their own play not gelling with the team, or even chemistry issues that divide a roster, it has happened.

This bunch nearly got to the finals without Irving or Hayward last year, so to call a title without Irving impossible would seem to go against something KG once shouted following a title game.

Should they be better with Kyrie? It would seem so.

Could Irving's balky knee cause a repeat of last year, except + Hayward? Too soon to say.

Is it possible they might actually play better and win a title without Kyrie? No one knows. See KG in June.

NYCelt wrote:It only makes sense your best chance at winning should come with your best player in the lineup.

That ought to be the case here. But I don't think that can be said with absolute conviction given the events of last season, and this season so far.

There are always exceptions. There have been cases of 'addition by subtraction' before. Be it a top talent who bogs a team down through their own play not gelling with the team, or even chemistry issues that divide a roster, it has happened.

This bunch nearly got to the finals without Irving or Hayward last year, so to call a title without Irving impossible would seem to go against something KG once shouted following a title game.

Should they be better with Kyrie? It would seem so.

Could Irving's balky knee cause a repeat of last year, except + Hayward? Too soon to say.

Is it possible they might actually play better and win a title without Kyrie? No one knows. See KG in June.

Well said....

In the end this discussion is academic.

Kyrie is on the team and we are in the hunt for the best possible playoff seeding. I pray that he will have good health going into the playoffs. I feel the same way for the entire team.

I thought we already had a thread to discuss this?

blah!!

If you are among the many believers that the Cs desperately need Kyrie Irving to win a championship do you also believe that Ainge will have to trade at least some of the rest of the roster so that Kyrie fits in much better than he does right now should he be in Boston next season?

The record without Irving in the lineup is just to crazy to ignore, in my opinion, even though it is only 11 games in totality this season. However, if you add in the team's end-of-season performance last season and the playoffs of playing without Irving in the lineup the sample size is fairly significant.

For those of us who have played or coached sports, I am sure that most of us have seen how sometimes the best player available does not necessarily make the team play at its best level. Is Mr. Irving one such guy as the Cs roster is currently constructed? Sometimes, addition comes through subtraction.

If Irving does not re-sign in Boston, the team may very much regret not trading him at the deadline last week.

For me, it has to be all or nothing with and for Mr. Irving as this season concludes (at some point). He is going to have to find a way to get his teammates much more involved to play much better as soon as he is medically cleared from this latest injury.

wideclyde wrote:If you are among the many believers that the Cs desperately need Kyrie Irving to win a championship do you also believe that Ainge will have to trade at least some of the rest of the roster so that Kyrie fits in much better than he does right now should he be in Boston next season?

The record without Irving in the lineup is just to crazy to ignore, in my opinion, even though it is only 11 games in totality this season.  However, if you add in the team's end-of-season performance last season and the playoffs of playing without Irving in the lineup the sample size is fairly significant.

For those of us who have played or coached sports, I am sure that most of us have seen how sometimes the best player available does not necessarily make the team play at its best level.  Is Mr. Irving one such guy as the Cs roster is currently constructed?  Sometimes, addition comes through subtraction.

If Irving does not re-sign in Boston, the team may very much regret not trading him at the deadline last week.

For me, it has to be all or nothing with and for Mr. Irving as this season concludes (at some point).  He is going to have to find a way to get his teammates much more involved to play much better as soon as he is medically cleared from this latest injury.

Excellent post. Good counter-point to the original article.

Like you, I have experienced addition by subtraction first hand, as both player and coach. I have also watched it happen multiple times in professional leagues.

In my own opinion, to not at least consider what we've observed with and without Irving, is to have had one's eyes closed.

NYCelt wrote:

wideclyde wrote:If you are among the many believers that the Cs desperately need Kyrie Irving to win a championship do you also believe that Ainge will have to trade at least some of the rest of the roster so that Kyrie fits in much better than he does right now should he be in Boston next season?

The record without Irving in the lineup is just to crazy to ignore, in my opinion, even though it is only 11 games in totality this season.  However, if you add in the team's end-of-season performance last season and the playoffs of playing without Irving in the lineup the sample size is fairly significant.

For those of us who have played or coached sports, I am sure that most of us have seen how sometimes the best player available does not necessarily make the team play at its best level.  Is Mr. Irving one such guy as the Cs roster is currently constructed?  Sometimes, addition comes through subtraction.

If Irving does not re-sign in Boston, the team may very much regret not trading him at the deadline last week.

For me, it has to be all or nothing with and for Mr. Irving as this season concludes (at some point).  He is going to have to find a way to get his teammates much more involved to play much better as soon as he is medically
cleared from this latest injury.

Excellent post. Good counter-point to the original article.

Like you, I have experienced addition by subtraction first hand, as both player and coach. I have also watched it happen multiple times in professional leagues.

In my own opinion, to not at least consider what we've observed with and without Irving, is to have had
one's eyes closed.

+1