Five Big Offseason Questions Facing the Celtics

www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2019/5/8/18537766/boston-celtics-offseason-preview-kyrie-irving-anthony-davis-jayson-tatum


The flip never switched on for Boston. Now it heads into a summer full of franchise-defining decisions—starting with the future of Kyrie Irving.

We reached the darkest timeline for the Boston Celtics right around the third quarter of Wednesday’s fate-sealing Game 5 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks:

The Nets gave the Celtics all of their picks and are arguably in better shape as a franchise right now

That’s bleak … but not totally unreasonable. Asset by asset, the Celtics built a team that just seven months ago was widely viewed as the best challenger to Golden State’s dynasty. But everything came crumbling down this season in a hailstorm of scoffs and cryptic comments. The innards of the team that came one win shy of last year’s NBA Finals are still here, behind all that black gunk, yet the front office heads into the offseason facing crossroads decisions with virtually every important player on the roster—starting with Kyrie Irving. Here are the five biggest questions awaiting Boston after losing 4-1 in the second round of the playoffs:

Will Kyrie Irving return?
Irving tried, aggressively, to quash the conversation about his future at various points during the season, but there’s a reason it was such a hot topic to begin with: His choice in free agency this summer has the potential to shape not just the Eastern Conference for years to come, but the entire NBA. Say what you want about his lackluster defense or his second-round shooting slump—after claiming that he was over the “B.S.” regular season and ready for the “highest level,” Irving is still a franchise-changing player who, at 27, is just entering his prime.

No team, of course, will feel the impact of Irving’s decision more than the Celtics. If he stays, Danny Ainge will be at David Griffin’s doorstep in New Orleans the next day, cue cards in hand, ready to wrangle Anthony Davis away and turn the training wheels on his contender into monster-truck tires. If Irving leaves, Ainge and Co. will still head back to the drawing board with the guts of a good young team—and probably far less stress—but without a clear answer of how to take the leap to title favorite without sacrificing the future (more on that below).

For what it’s worth, the Celtics can outbid any other team for Irving, should he indeed opt out of the final year of his contract: Boston can offer five years, $190 million, while the 29 other NBA franchises can offer a max of four years, $141 million. But while a player with Irving’s injury history will have to consider an extra year of security, recent history—Irving’s included—suggests that where and with whom a star wants to play matters far more than how long their deal lasts.

Is Jayson Tatum trade bait or the future of the franchise?
Irving may stay, Irving may go, but the referendum on Tatum’s career is coming no matter what. A year ago, the then-rookie looked like an MVP candidate-to-be, but a season of floating around on offense, settling for midrange jumpers, and getting IRL subtweeted has sent many a Tatum stan retreating into the bushes. It’s worth noting that Tatum actually improved in his sophomore season—virtually all of his raw totals are up, and while his scoring efficiency is down, expecting Steph Curry–level shooting from 3 again, even on low volume, was a bit ambitious. Punctuating any Tatum commentary, good or bad, with his age has become the internet’s favorite gag for two years running, but here’s the thing: He’s only 21—and was only 20 for most of this season. Only five players 20 or younger averaged 15 points or more this season, and Tatum had the highest effective field goal rating of anyone of them who didn’t always shoot right at the basket. Tatum hasn’t been great, but it’s worth remembering that it took Brandon Ingram only a couple of games this spring to regain traction before a fluke blood clot issue derailed the rest of his season.

The more salient question is whether the Celtics view Irving as the root cause of Tatum’s just-fine second season. If Irving stays, Tatum should start developing a taste for boudin as soon as possible; Boston can put together a satisfactory pupu platter of assets for Davis without throwing Tatum in a trade, but Tatum is the trump card should the bidding devolve into an arms race. And if Irving leaves, Boston will need to decide whether a one-season gamble on Davis, à la Toronto’s with Kawhi Leonard, is worth parting with two low-cost seasons—plus team control over his next deal—of a 21-year-old who recently helped lead the franchise to the East finals. Keeping all the young players and leaning into the spunky, switching team that broke through in last year’s playoffs has its merits, especially for a fan base that’s had to suffer through postgame treatises on What It’s All About for half a year. But Ainge has been filling his war chest to take a run at Davis for years; will anything, or anyone, keep Ainge from getting his man?

Will Al Horford return?
Irving isn’t the Celtics’ only cornerstone player who could walk away this summer. Horford, signed to a four-year max in 2016, holds a $30.1 million player option for next season, when he’ll be 33. You’d think a player of his age and experience and recent injury history would be hard-pressed to find that sort of annual value elsewhere, but a team starved for defense and leadership—say, Atlanta, Horford’s old stomping grounds?—could replicate what the Sixers did with JJ Redick in 2017 and overpay to speed up their rebuilding process. Or Horford could prioritize the security of a long-term deal at a lower cap number rather than one final year at his maximum.

Committing to Horford past this season wouldn’t seem prudent for a Boston team entering a new era one way or another, but it will need him next season in whatever iteration it ends up with. If the Pelicans take the long view and don’t seek to pair Horford and Jrue Holiday—who, for what it’s worth, share an agent—Horford would make for an ideal frontcourt partner with Davis, a center who prefers to leave the bruisings and beatings of the position to others. And if the Celtics go young, Horford can simply reprise his role as defensive anchor and help keep the team competitive as the moving trucks come and go. It is not Time Lord’s time just yet.
Committing to Horford past this season wouldn’t seem prudent for a Boston team entering a new era one way or another, but it will need him next season in whatever iteration it ends up with. If the Pelicans take the long view and don’t seek to pair Horford and Jrue Holiday—who, for what it’s worth, share an agent—Horford would make for an ideal frontcourt partner with Davis, a center who prefers to leave the bruisings and beatings of the position to others. And if the Celtics go young, Horford can simply reprise his role as defensive anchor and help keep the team competitive as the moving trucks come and go. It is not Time Lord’s time just yet.


Re-sign Terry Rozier?
Rozier seemed marked for trade fodder ever since he flaunted his civic pride last postseason. (It definitely didn’t work out for the last pint-sized point guard.) But whether it was because the Celtics needed insurance following Irving’s surgery or a market never materialized for a lead guard with the steady hand of a baby operating a jackhammer, Rozier lasted through his final contracted year in Boston and will head into restricted free agency. The question now regarding Rozier is the same one the Celtics will find themselves asking about virtually every young player on this roster: Can he return to last postseason’s playoff form in the absence of Irving? The guess here is no, and if the Boston brass agree, their decision-making tree becomes rather simple: match or agree to any reasonable offer in order to keep the asset, like they did for Marcus Smart last year; otherwise, let the 25-year-old pick up his ironic T-shirt business in the market of his choosing.

Extend Jaylen Brown?
As if there wasn’t already enough on Ainge’s agenda, Brown, the no. 3 pick in the 2016 draft, is eligible for a rookie-contract extension before the start of next season. If you watched the Celtics this postseason, this seems like an easy call: While Tatum came and went, Brown returned to the fearless attacking style that spurred his emergence last year and reaffirmed his station as a foundational prospect—perhaps even a better one than his Jay Teammate. If Boston isn’t sold on Brown’s shooting long term—35 percent from 3 this postseason, 34.4 percent in the regular season—they could toss him in the Davis bidding. If Boston is sold, it would be wise to lock Brown up before he proves the breadth of his offensive game either playing off of Davis or in an offense with far more shots to go around.

the rest


Re-sign Terry Rozier?
Rozier seemed marked for trade fodder ever since he flaunted his civic pride last postseason. (It definitely didn’t work out for the last pint-sized point guard.) But whether it was because the Celtics needed insurance following Irving’s surgery or a market never materialized for a lead guard with the steady hand of a baby operating a jackhammer, Rozier lasted through his final contracted year in Boston and will head into restricted free agency. The question now regarding Rozier is the same one the Celtics will find themselves asking about virtually every young player on this roster: Can he return to last postseason’s playoff form in the absence of Irving? The guess here is no, and if the Boston brass agree, their decision-making tree becomes rather simple: match or agree to any reasonable offer in order to keep the asset, like they did for Marcus Smart last year; otherwise, let the 25-year-old pick up his ironic T-shirt business in the market of his choosing.

Extend Jaylen Brown?
As if there wasn’t already enough on Ainge’s agenda, Brown, the no. 3 pick in the 2016 draft, is eligible for a rookie-contract extension before the start of next season. If you watched the Celtics this postseason, this seems like an easy call: While Tatum came and went, Brown returned to the fearless attacking style that spurred his emergence last year and reaffirmed his station as a foundational prospect—perhaps even a better one than his Jay Teammate. If Boston isn’t sold on Brown’s shooting long term—35 percent from 3 this postseason, 34.4 percent in the regular season—they could toss him in the Davis bidding. If Boston is sold, it would be wise to lock Brown up before he proves the breadth of his offensive game either playing off of Davis or in an offense with far more shots to go around.

yet another take on this off-season here:


https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/08/boston-celtics-2019-offseason-goals-plans-trade-free-agency/



By: Frank Urbina | May 8, 2019

Despite finishing the 2018-19 season with 49 wins and the East’s No. 4 seed, the Boston Celtics’ campaign was disappointing more than anything else. There were confusing losses to far inferior foes, there was questionable chemistry and, in the end, there was an embarrassing 4-1 demolition at the hands of the far more synergistic Milwaukee Bucks in the playoffs.

Now, a huge summer awaits Boston. Will they maintain the status quo, do everything in their power to try and re-sign impending free agent Kyrie Irving and hope that another season together helps with the team’s synergy? With a returning Al Horford, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, that should be enough to crack 50 wins next season and remain one of the Eastern Conference’s top teams. Or will they package their excellent young talent together in hopes of landing a superstar on the trade market, as has been rumored?

Either way, the Celtics will field a strong team yet again in 2019-20, but choosing the right course of action will have huge ramifications on their future, and that decision has to come this offseason. It should be a fascinating one to watch unfold.

GUARANTEED CONTRACTS FOR 2019/20
Gordon Hayward: $32,700,690

Marcus Smart: $12,053,571

Jayson Tatum: $7,830,000

Jaylen Brown: $6,534,829

Guerschon Yabusele: $3,117,240

Robert Williams: $1,940,160

NON-GUARANTEED CONTRACTS FOR 2019/20
Semi Ojeleye: $1,618,520

PLAYER OPTIONS
Al Horford: $30,123,015

Kyrie Irving: $21,329,752

Aron Baynes: $5,453,280

FREE AGENTS
Terry Rozier (Restricted)

Daniel Theis (Restricted)

Brad Wanamaker (Restricted)

Jonathan Gibson (Restricted)

Marcus Morris


OFFSEASON GOALS
Priority No. 1 for Boston this offseason is figuring out what to do with Irving. On one hand, the enigmatic point guard is coming off his sixth All-Star campaign and is still one of the best lead ball-handlers in the league. On the other, he proved difficult for head coach Brad Stevens to rein in this year, he sometimes seemed to lack focus and, most pressing of all, questions remain on what a team’s ceiling is with him as its best player. At the end of the day, he’s still worth the trouble he may cause at times. At one point, he told Celtics fans prior to the season that he would re-sign this summer if they wanted him back. However, he seemed to change his tune during the season and after the way the campaign ended, his future is up in the air.

Next, the Celtics have to make their move on Anthony Davis, or risk missing out on a major talent. The trade market opens up before free agency or the draft, so they won’t even be sure about Irving’s future yet, but trading for Davis would solve multiple problems for Boston:

The team would have a game-changing big man and a two-way force who would be the best player on the roster, putting Irving back in the second-fiddle role he’s best suited for on an elite team.
It would clear up some of the logjam Boston has at multiple positions, especially on the wing.
Irving will be more easily persuaded to re-sign with a new superstar to team up with.
After a disappointing end to the season, landing Davis would give the Celtics a completely new look heading into 2019-20, and make them a much scarier foe for opponents in the Eastern Conference.

Another thing Boston has to deal with this offseason is trying to regain the All-Star version of Hayward. As of now, despite proving he could come back and play a full season healthy once again, his trade value is still quite low, so the Celtics’ best course of action must be getting Hayward back to top form. And although it’s unclear what his top form is at this point in his career, getting him to perform at a higher level is far from a lost cause. Over a 24-game stretch to close the regular season, he averaged 13.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists on efficient 56.6/37.3/81.8 shooting splits. There’s a higher plane for the 29-year-old, Boston just needs to help him get him back there in 2019-20.

Finally, the Celtics have to decide whether Tatum and Brown are franchise building blocks or valuable trade chips. Tatum’s raw averages may have gone up this year, but his three-point accuracy plummeted from 43.4 percent to 37.3 percent, and most of the advanced stats indicate he may have actually regressed. Brown, meanwhile, saw his three-point percentage drop from 39.5 percent to 34.4 percent, and his hounding defense wasn’t enough to make up for the difference. In fact, Boston was statistically a worse team with Brown on the floor this season, and that mark got even more abhorrently bad in the playoffs. He’ll be eligible for a rookie extension this summer, and it’ll be interesting to see if Boston goes through with offering him one or if they choose to to let him test restricted free agency in the summer of 2020.

POTENTIAL FREE AGENT TARGETS
Thaddeus Young: Boston could have a need at power forward if Marcus Morris walks, and Young would be a good candidate to replace him. His quickness defensively next to Horford would help form a mighty difficult frontcourt to score on.

Elfrid Payton: If Irving re-signs but Rozier doesn’t, Boston will need a backup point guard. Payton would be a good one, as his ability to get to the basket and not settle for jumpers would be a welcome skill set for the Celtics.

Isaiah Thomas: Things ended in an ugly manner between these two parties when they were last together. But if the Celtics need a backup point guard, a Thomas return can’t be ruled out. The question is: Can he still contribute on a winning team? His stints with the Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets make that a tough question to answer.

Taj Gibson: Boston could stand to toughen up as a team, but especially in their frontcourt. Gibson would provide just that: toughness.

Reggie Bullock: The Celtics could also use a pure sharpshooter at the 2-guard spot, at least off the bench. Bullock knows how to play that role, and performs it well.

POTENTIAL TRADE TARGETS
Anthony Davis: We discussed in the offseason goals section what an A.D. trade would do for the team, and why it’s imperative they go after him.

Kevin Love: If not Davis, another All-Star trade target for Boston could be Love. There aren’t many rumblings – yet – about the Cavaliers shopping the big man, but with the way their roster is constructed, how much money they owe him and how far they are from competing at a high level, a Love trade almost certainly has to happen, at least eventually.

2019 DRAFT ASSETS
Boston will select 22nd overall in the 2019 draft. Apart from that, they also own the Los Angeles Clippers’ first-round pick (No. 20 overall), as well as the Memphis Grizzlies’ first-rounder, as long as it falls between No. 9 and No. 12 overall. If it stays in the Top 8, though, the pick will remain with Memphis. Additionally, the Celtics will also be receiving the Sacramento Kings’ first-round pick unless they land the No. 1 selection, in which case they’ll get the Philadelphia 76ers’ first-rounder (No. 24 overall) instead.

They also own their second-round pick this summer.

Thanks Kdp - I pasted the rest into my original post. Thought I had posted the whole thing. Will check more carefully next time.

Shamrock1000 wrote:Thanks Kdp - I pasted the rest into my original post. Thought I had posted the whole thing. Will check more carefully next time.

no issues...good thoughtful piece thanks for posting it.