The Big Three

The glass is half full. Let's wait 10 days to see how this turns out before losing our minds.

Without getting into the whole long thing, I'm all for retaining Rozier. I believe he is, as he thinks he is, a starting point guard in the NBA. I think what we saw from him two seasons back, and when he started this year, is all the evidence needed. An All-Star? Maybe not. But close enough when on the court with Tatum, Smart and Brown.

So I'm for doing what is needed, within reason, to keep Rozier around. Rozier, one of the huge pack of experienced NBA point guards wandering around (not necessarily Wanamaker), and the two draft picks. That should be all that's needed for camp. Edwards does have the potential to earn minutes early, given the need for scoring. No need to focus on anything other than PF/C. That is where Boston needs to spend it's time, and money.

I too have been saying signing Rozier should be the first priority. However, that was before Horford decided to move on to a new address.

when I look at where our roster stands right now, I would say trying to retain Morris is actually a higher priority.

I say that because we need TWO big men and while Morris is not an elite level PF, he is a legit NBA starter. We have Brown, Smart, Langford and the two second round picks along with possibly retaining Wannamaker for a cheap deal, at guard.

IF I was giving out a contract in the $10M plus range to one of MOrris or Rozier, it would be Morris now.

Also, typically PG's get less money in free agency than any other position in recent years. That means Ainge should be able to get a FA PG at a lesser cost then a a second big man.

as an example:

if we renounce all but the first round picks, Morris , Wannamaker and Theis we will have about $22M in cap space. Thus would assume we have hand shake deals with Morris, Theis and Wannamker on new contracts.

now Ainge can use all the $22M on Free agents, with a Projected roster of:

Bigs

Morris
Theis
Rob W.
Grant W.
Yabusele

Wings:

Tatum
Brown
Semi
Langford

Ball handlers:

Smart
Wannamaker
Edwards ?
Waters

so with this roster we need one starting Big and a BU point ( at a minimum)

IMO, it will be easier to spend the $22M cap space on a big either in FA or a trade , then use the $4.7M MLE on a BU point guard,

Ainge would also have the Bi-annual exception at $3.6M to sing an additional vet player as well.

PG's can be had cheaper than big men in the NBA today , as long as they are not elite players.

with that all said , here are a couple ideas on potential ways to go in the coming weeks:

1) we sign
C- D. Dedmon- $8M
PG- R. Rubio- $14M
C- M. Muscala- MLE

not gonna bring cheers to many, but all the players fit into what Stevens does and should fit the cap rules too.

2)
C- N. Vucievic-$22M ( I really think he's staying at Orlando, who can offer him more money)
PG- I. Thomas- MLE
PG- J. Grant- BIE

While Vucevic is likely one of the top big men who could be available (along with a trade for S. Adams), i do feel he'll end up back at Orlando, who can pay him more.

that is two quick options for what different types off moves could look like, IMO. there are of course many different options and combinations of players that could fit in our cap space and exceptions.

these are just examples that I feel supports why I think we can get more bang for the buck by keeping Morris over Rozier (assuming the dollars to keep each is similar).

kdp,

I think Morris is gone.  He is not going to accept $10M, he is a starter and should get more than Marcus Smart money.  This may be the last time he can get well paid and since we are not contenders, the incentive to sign here for less is gone.

Also, as you say, he is not a real PF, not in big lineups.  Morris is a small ball PF.  We have Tatum for that (like it or not) and the Williams rookie is also a small ball PF. We also have Semi O as a small ball PF off the bench.

Ainge will want the largest amount of cap space that he can get.  That way he can go all in on a big or split it and get either two bigs or big and a PG.

That is my guess.

gyso

Mine too Gyso.

I'll say this once and then drop it.  Ainge had a little talk about the rookies and why he picked them.  My takeaway was that when he spoke about drafting young players who would accept whatever role that they were given, he was looking right at Rozier.

I do not expect Rozier to be back.  Ainge will try to sign and trade him or just let him walk for cap space. All it will take for Ainge to renounce Rozier (and Morris) is a quality big free agent that accepts the Boston offer.

That is my guess.

gyso

I don’t think he was necessarily referring to Rozier. He’s always been very high on him and it was a difficult situation for Rozier this season.

Danny knows we need a big and a pg. How Terry fits into his computing is indeterminant at this time.

Just a note here:

I wasn't saying Morris (or Rozier) would take a deal for $10M.j ust that is thier cap holds now.

I would agree that I feel Morris may have been close to Irving and may want to move on with He and Horford.

I guess my main point was, that IF Morris leaves we need TWO staring big men not just one.

IF Rozier leaves we need at LEAST a quality back up PG also.

$32M in cap space should be enough, if everyone expect Theis and Wannamaker are renounced. As long as we don;t shoot it all on one player.

IMO, the MLE (even at only $4.7M) should be enough for capable back UP Point.

Morris can thank Brad Stevens and the Celtics for giving him a perfect role where he could excel as a small ball stretch 4 and display those skills for the league to see.

The bidding will start at at least $15 million.  IF Evan Turner and KO can got $15 million per I am fairly confident that Morris will get a big pay raise.

As far as Rozier is concerned, I would be very surprised if the Celtics were to lose both Irving and Rozier to free agency.  I still believe that Danny held on to Rozier as insurance in the event that Kyrie got injured or he left in free agency.

Does anyone out there believe that Danny is prepared to lose Irving, Horford, Morris, Rozier and Baynes?

kdp59

$32 million is simply not enough to find adequate replacements for Horford, Irving, Morris, Rozier and Baynes. 

If we stay under the luxury tax we can use the full MLE so I consider that as enough to get someone.

dboss wrote:
Does anyone out there believe that Danny is prepared to lose Irving, Horford, Morris, Rozier and Baynes?

Yes. But only if Rozier gets a big offer that he would be too much to match.

I am with you Cow. Use Terry's $$ for a big.

Without actually counting, it looks like about an even split on the opinion of Rozier stays or goes.

Going to be interesting to see who comes out with the correct guess.

I do think the two PGs drafted were more than just long-shots. I think at least Edwards will stick. You don't use two of your four picks on PGs otherwise.

Good Sherlock Holmes reasoning NYCelt.

dboss wrote:kdp59

$32 million is simply not enough to find adequate replacements for Horford, Irving, Morris, Rozier and Baynes. 

If we stay under the luxury tax we can use the full MLE so I consider that as enough to get someone.

once we go below the cap. I think the MLE is only $4.7M the first year of the deal.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/02/early-mid-level-bi-annual-projections-for-201920.html

gyso can possible clear that up, if I misunderstand this.

The standard mid-level exception is available to over-the-cap teams that haven’t dipped below the cap to use room and don’t go over the tax apron at all. It can run for up to four years, with 5% annual raises.

The taxpayer mid-level exception is for in-the-tax teams, or teams that want the flexibility to surpass the tax apron later. It can run for up to three years, with 5% annual raises.

The room exception is for teams that go under the cap and use their space. Once they’ve used all their cap room, they can use this version of the mid-level exception, which runs for up to two years with 5% annual raises.

also, I was saying $32M and the MLE should be enough to bring in 3 players
two bigs and a PG. not 5 players, we just drafted two in the first (for good or bad).

as to what Morris will get I may be wrong that under $15 is likely. I would note Turner signed that inflated deal the year the cap rose very high with the new TV money. it was a one year explosion

dboss wrote:

Does anyone out there believe that Danny is prepared to lose Irving, Horford, Morris, Rozier and Baynes?

Yes. 3 out of 5 are already gone. Irving, Horford and Baynes.

The other two will be gone for various reasons, but both will need to go in order to free up salary cap space.

With Marcus Smart and Gordon on the floor together, do we need a PG?

worcester wrote:With Marcus Smart and Gordon on the floor together, do we need a PG?

No. But we could put one out there, especially if they can defend and shoot

So why tie up $15M with Terry when we really need bigs?