Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving and the great “Kobe Brain” lie — a deeper look

Usually I am not a big fan of sites where essentially fans and amateurs writing articles, but this, though presumably about Kobe's influence on Tatum, has some interesting things to say about why the Kyrie experiment failed.


Jayson Tatum has been one of the Boston Celtics’ most reliable scorers thus far, and many attribute his turnaround to De-Kobe Braining. But is “Kobe Brain” even real?
Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics have been excellent thus far into the 2019-20 campaign. Outside of his aberrant 1 for 18 shooting performance in a win against the Dallas Mavericks, Tatum has been the team’s most reliable wing scorer.

In addition to the great leaps the 21-year-old has taken defensively, Tatum seems to be growing more and more comfortable in his role as a primary wing scorer. He has shown both patience and consistency, and is showing savvy years beyond his age.

This success comes on the heels of a rather disappointing 2018-2019 sophomore campaign, where he struggled to find his role and consistency as a scorer in a tumultuous season for the team. Many attribute Tatum’s sophomore slump to his shot selection. Many, including myself, speculated that he had come down with a nasty case of “Kobe Brain.”

Kobe Brain is a shot selection phenomenon where players all of the sudden start taking a ton of mid-range jumpers. The condition is named after Kobe Bryant, auteur filmmaker and Los Angeles Lakers legend. Bryant was one of the greatest isolation scorers in basketball history, and he had a particular penchant for that mid-range jumper. Over the course of his 16 year NBA career, about 28% of all his shots were of the long two variety.

Many traced the outbreak of Kobe Brain back to 2018, Tatum’s rookie reason. Tatum had a fantastic rookie campaign as the Boston Celtics cruised all the way to the Eastern Conference’s second seed and were set up for a deep playoff run. However, after injuries to Gordon Hayward in Game one of the regular season and Kyrie Irving missing the entirety of that year’s playoffs, those expectations were called into question and much of the scoring burden fell to Tatum and, then, second year player Jaylen Brown.

Still, he flourished in his role, averaging 18 points per game as Boston improbably rolled to the Eastern Conference Finals. No matter how the playoffs played out (Celtics eventually took the LeBron James-led Cavaliers to seven games) Tatum had solidified himself as a cornerstone upon which Danny Ainge would build the next Boston Celtics dynasty.

Then, on May 18th, 2018, an episode of Detail aired on ESPN. Detail is a short documentary series where Kobe Bryant breaks down some game film and offers his perspective on what went right and wrong. That particular episode was about Jayson Tatum.

It is at that moment that we can trace when Tatum, then an impressionable 20-year-old, might have come down with Kobe Brain. Tatum admitted on the Bill Simmons Podcast to watching the 18 minute segment “around 70 times”.

He was infected… or so we thought.

I had always been a little bit skeptical about Kobe Brain. Even though I am sworn to hate the Lakers, I still really liked Kobe. He is the Patrick Bateman of the NBA; a basketball sociopath bent on perfection. Perhaps my favorite Kobe Bryant moment of them all was when he insisted he had perfected a one-legged fadeaway jumper after watching video of a cheetah hunting, where the creature used its tail as a stabilizer. Equal parts incredible and psychotic.

In any case, the theory of Kobe Brain spawned out of the idea that Kobe would be unable to thrive in the modern NBA, with it’s hyper-efficient, math-based approach the devalues the mid-range jumper. Yet there are still plenty of modern NBA players having productive careers with Kobe-esque shot selection profiles.

Kawhii Leonard immediately comes to mind, and the stats back it up. Prior to even being drafted by the Boston Celtics, Tatum showed signs of Kobe Brain while with the Duke Blue Devils. Did he truly come down with it? Is Kobe Brain even real?

It warranted further investigation.

Last season 16.9% of Tatum’s shots came from between 16 to 28 feet, the dreaded “long two.” In his stellar rookie campaign, he still took a lot of long twos, accounting for about 18.8% of his shots, however the sheer amount of shots he took from three (29.0%) and at the rim (32.0%) were enough to offset them from an efficiency standpoint.

Simply put, he was such a fantastic three point shooter and was hitting shots inside 10 feet, it didn’t really matter that he was taking so many of these shots. He was still producing despite hamstringing himself from an efficiency standpoint.

This season his shot profile has followed a similar pattern as his rookie year, with 29.3% coming at or near the rim and a career-high 33.7% coming from beyond the arc. Although the sample size is too small to really glean any insight as far as efficiency goes — not to mention his 1 for 18 performance really skewing the data — it’s clear his shot selection has changed dramatically.

The glaring difference is that he has virtually eliminated the long two from his shot selection, now accounting for only 9.8% of his shot selection. In other words, he’s getting back to what made him such a dangerous offensive threat in his rookie season; attacking the rim and hitting three pointers.

So what has changed? Was he cured of Kobe Brain? Or was there something else?

The most obvious difference between this season and last is the departure of Kyrie Irving, who unlike Kemba Walker, is an extremely isolation-heavy ballhandler. Rather than swinging the ball around and probing defenses, Irving basically just dribbled the air out of the ball until it was time to shoot. Irving had a 28.6% usage rate last season, far above that of Tatum and Brown, who had a 21.8% and 21.5% rate, respectively.

To his credit, it is arguable Irving is the most gifted ball handler the NBA has ever seen and is a historically great shooter. He can basically get to any spot on the court at his pleasure. Offenses should revolve around their best players, and Kyrie was their clear-cut best offensive player last season.

But this isolation-heavy style also had an effect on his teammates shot selection. Perhaps this is the genesis of Kobe Brain? Dare I say, Kyrie Brain?

Looking at the stats, you would think Kobe Brain affected Jaylen Brown as well. In addition to Tatum, Brown also experienced a similar jump in long-twos last year, increasing from 5.5% in 2017-2018 to 11.9% in 2018-2019.

Too many times last season it felt as though Tatum and Brown were getting the ball either in frantic end-of-clock situations when Irving was doubled or hedged on a pick-and-roll, or they were just tossed into mid/low post isolation situations out of pittance.

Gordon Hayward was a victim as well. A whopping 36% of his attempts were from three last season, by far the highest rate of his career. And yes, Hayward spent much of last season getting his sea legs back after his leg injury. But his strengths have always been getting into the paint and making plays with his deft touch around the rim and pinpoint swing passes to corner and wing shooters.

Thus far this season the Boston Celtics’ offensive attack has been a more egalitarian approach. Walker is clocking in at about 28% usage rate, however Tatum (25.8%), Brown (23%), and Hayward (22.3%) are also sharing the scoring and playmaking burden. This has had a positive effect on the efficiency and shot selection of all players involved.

Brown is playing to his strengths, attaching the rim at a career high rate. Hayward, instead of settling for catch and shoot threes like last year, is operating like a surgeon inside 10 feet. And Tatum’s shot selection profile is looking more like an efficient modern day scorer (a la Paul George) rather than the anachronistic Kobe Bryant.

So maybe we had the wrong idea about Kobe Brain all along. Perhaps it is more of a systemic infection, something affecting the entire host organism, rather than one discrete part like the brain.

An infection linked not to the particular shooting inclinations of one player, but symptoms of a larger systemic issue. When a team, for whatever reason — whether philosophical or tactical or otherwise — suddenly shifts to an isolation-heavy approach.

To be clear, this isn’t necessarily indicative of team success, or lack thereof. Plenty of teams win with isolation-heavy approaches, and about as many lose with similar approaches.

Contrast being the Houston Rockets with James Harden and the Phoenix Suns and Devin Booker. Both players have similar usage rates, however, only one of those teams have won more than 30 games in the past three seasons.

Rather, this effect is more felt on the shot selection of players around them. Philosophically this checks out; when you structure your offensive attack around your best player, other players have to make sacrifices to their own games to fit in.

And that isn’t always easy. It takes it’s toll on chemistry. When comparing the Boston Celtics in 2017-2018 and the Boston Celtics in 2018-2019 you will find very similar usage rates, yet their outcomes were wildly different.

Look, maybe it’s not necessarily all bad. Michael Jordan, perhaps patient zero of Kobe Brain, is the greatest basketball player of all time. Like the body fighting off illness with a fever, sometimes Kobe Brain is necessary to ensure survival, to ensure the organism prospers, to win.

After all, Kobe Bryant did win five championships.

Kyrie the most gifted ball handler the NBA has ever seen? Oh, please!

Nets win tonight when Kyrie sits. Sound familiar? I feel bad for Nets fans who are going to have to convince themselves that it's a fluke, and their team really is better with Kyrie.

I will add these comments from another article.

Jayson Tatum is +128 this season, which leads the NBA. Nobody else is even above 100 (LeBron James is second at +96 at time of publish). The Boston Celtics have pretty much been dominant regardless of who is on the floor, but Tatum is the lone outlier: When he sits they fade on both ends, having been outscored by 9.8 points per 100 possessions. With Tatum, Boston is playing a juggernaut. Without him they’re playing like the New York Knicks.

Plus-minus is a noisy stat, especially when used to quantify 135 minutes of action. Tatum is surrounded by talented players, guided by smart coaches, and plays for an organization that is good at being good. But it’s also fair to say this isn’t a coincidence. Tatum has scored 20 or more points in six of his 10 games. He leads the Celtics in minutes, shots, rebounds, steals, and front-court touches. He’s second in usage rate and total deflections, spaces the floor on offense while shrinking it on the other end.

Intricate footwork, long arms, and a high release let him get whatever shot he wants, whenever he feels like taking it, regardless of what’s in front of him. The only downside is that whenever Tatum crouches into a triple-threat position his options multiply into the millions; his worst enemy as an attacker is basketball’s own paradox of choice.

Tatum has too many options in his arsenal. It can sometimes bog down his progress and make the game look harder than his talent licenses it to be. In sharper moments, Tatum punches with artful deception, masked by bluffs and parrys that hypnotize whoever’s guarding him.


Naturally, this is someone Celtics head coach Brad Stevens doesn’t want to keep on the bench for too long. Tatum’s stretches of rest are frequent throughout the game, but shorter than most of his teammates’. This makes sense. Regardless of who else is on the court, on either team, Tatum fits in, fluidly see-sawing between life as a complementary weapon and focal centerpiece who can defend point guards and power forwards just the same.

He’s undoubtedly effective, with breathtaking aesthetics, borderline-all-star production, and one of the most effortless three-point shots in the galaxy. But right now Tatum also happens to be stuck in an epic slump. So far, he’s shooting below 40 percent inside the arc and has missed approximately all of his layups. This is only a slight exaggeration. There are 100 players who’ve taken at least 50 shots within five feet of the rim. Zero are less accurate than Tatum, who’s shooting an unthinkable 39.7 percent. Thirty. Nine. Point. Seven. Percent.


This is more bizarre than disappointing. Since 2006, Boobie Gibson and Derek Fisher are the only two players who finished a season below 40 percent on at least 100 shots that close to the hoop. Tatum made a perfectly fine 61.3 percent of them a year ago. These early misses are mostly a fluke that will eventually regress towards the mean.

Tatum is driving to the basket nearly twice as often as he did last year, and his team-leading 6.6 field goal attempts at the end of them is more per game than LeBron James, Pascal Siakam, and Russell Westbrook. Some of these shots are forced, though: There are 61 players who average at least eight drives per game, and none have a lower pass percentage than Tatum. Look how open Smart is on the opposite wing on the play below.


He can stand to seek out more contact, too, instead of thinking his long arms will reach the rim before a shot blocker can. (His free-throw rate is half of Jaylen’s right now.) But all in all Tatum is making visible steps towards his ceiling, whatever that looks like, and even though his general approach is a bit too bull-headed at the moment, his ongoing attempt to rectify some of the issues that plagued his sophomore season is vital.

Tatum leads Boston in long twos, but they’re now a much smaller part of his diet. Similar to his aforementioned struggle around the rim, though, among all players who’ve launched at least 20 mid-range jumpers, only Jordan Poole and Nikola Vucevic are less accurate than Tatum’s 29 percent. These shooting numbers will improve, but really hurt someone whose assist-to-usage ratio has plateaued despite running more pick-and-roll than ever before. (Tatum has only assisted two of Kemba Walker’s 76 buckets.) In other words, he’s not actively setting teammates up as often as he could. Even though he does a great job taking care of the ball, some of his contested shots can be open looks for someone else.

Tatum is the Plus-Minus King, but a few catch-all advanced stats — including 538’s RAPTOR, which uses tracking data and other data points to weigh on/off impact as it relates to a league-average player — aren’t impressed. RAPTOR pegs Tatum below Smart, Walker, Brown, and Daniel Theis; he’s currently tied with Cleveland Cavaliers guard Jordan Clarkson, and also 11th on his own team in Win Shares per 48 minutes. This is more intriguing than cause for panic.

How Tatum makes his team better may be slightly more ambiguous than his league-leading plus-minus suggests, but his current inefficiency underrates how savage he can be once exceedingly makeable shots that haven’t gone in start to fall.

He’s 21 years old, far from perfect, and must eventually make quicker decisions with the ball than he currently does, but important elements of his game are starting to evolve. Despite one of the league’s ugliest early-season slumps he still looks the part of a budding star. It’s terrifying, and just goes to show how special whatever is in store for him, and the Celtics, can still be.

I don't like the +/- stat. Tatum has the benefit of some defensive juggernauts (Brown and Smart) in the rotation with him.

Basketball is a team game, after all.


KJ

Jayson Tatum is +128 this season, which leads the NBA. Nobody else is even above 100 (LeBron James is second at +96 at time of publish). The Boston Celtics have pretty much been dominant regardless of who is on the floor, but Tatum is the lone outlier: When he sits they fade on both ends, having been outscored by 9.8 points per 100 possessions. With Tatum, Boston is playing a juggernaut. Without him they’re playing like the New York Knicks.

you may not like this stat but it is pretty impressive if you ask me. Lebron James is second on the list? I guess its bogus for Lebron too considering the defensive stalwarts like AD and others he has.

Sometimes the game is very strange, shocked that he is that bad a finisher, and we are 10-2 and he is first in +/-? He never gets calls on most of his drives, he is defending and rebounding very well. Ball seems to move very well when he’s on the floor. He can only improve as he gets where he needs to go on the floor very well....

Cow you are right. His average should be 4-5 points higher just from the easy shots he has missed. It may be in his head a little and the more of them that he finishes the more confidence he will have. Kind of like a 3 foot putt. I have said it before that the light is going to go off in his head and this game is going to get a lot easier than he is making it right now. His layups missed would probably get his shooting average up to 50%. Looks like the light kind of went off in Jaylen's head this year. He looks so much better than he ever has. It will happen with Tatum too and it might even be a bigger jump. JMO

Tardust last night was a great sign of what Tatum can do and become. 26 points in 27 minutes and a few breathtaking finishes/dunks that we know he can do. 2 J’s just getting started....

The Celtics have bookend studs at the wing position

Not a lot of separation between them right now

JT  20.2 PPG, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 Assists
JB  19.5 PPG, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 Assists

Right now Jaylen finishes better at the rim and that is why his 2P % is higher.  JT will be fine as he continues to work on his drives to the rim and embraces contact.  They both are averaging 3.9 FTA per game.

I find it pretty amazing that two guys are so closely aligned.