Grading Boston Celtic Players, at the Three-Quarter Pole

Basketball is a team sport, but it is the culmination of each player's contributions to the general effort.  Not all of it is quantifiable.  Who would try to quantify Marcus Smart's value?

These are my grades 1/4 of the way through the season.  They are based upon a combination of quantifiable facts like stats, my eyeball tests as well as how well they measure up against pre-season expectations.  In other words, they're my opinions.  As you will see I generally give good grades to our starters and key rotation players and not so good grades to our bench.  Please feel free to submit your own or make comments about mine.


Jaylen Brown

This is the breakout year we all thought Jaylen was going to have last year but didn't because of a hand injury and because he wasn't getting as many touches.  It's hard to find fault in almost any part of Jaylen's game so far this season.  Offensively he's averaging 20.0ppg.  He's shooting a blistering 49.6% from the floor.  When was the last time you saw a back court player average almost 50% from the floor?!  Almost every offensive category is up, some WAY up.  FTAs are up almost 50%.  Rebounding way up.  Steals way up.  Whenever Marcus Smart isn't on the floor Jaylen is usually assigned to guard the other team's best scoring wing.  His Net Rating is a +9.  And, what's more, it feels like he's getting it all out of the flow of the offense.  He isn't sucking down 5-8 seconds of the shot clock trying to go one-one-one, he's going to where he wants the ball, is sizing up the defender quickly and is making the appropriate move, be it taking the shot or driving, with no hesitation.  The game has finally slowed down for Jaylen Brown.  Danny can take the rest of the year off, he's already paid for his salary by locking this kid up for another 4 years.  I think there's a distinct possibility that Jaylen will end up even better than Jayson, and that's saying something.

Grade:  A+


Gordon Hayward

This is what Danny and Brad thought they were signing 2+ years ago.  OG is back, and he is playing at an elite level.  Unfortunately he has only played in 8 games.  I was tempted to give him a grad of Incomplete because of that but his impact in the 8 games he has played in has been so large I had to give him a real grade.  I talked about Jaylen's blistering 49.6% from the floor, right?  Hayward is shooting 55.5%.  He's shooting 43.3% from 3.  His 7.1 rebounds/game is his highest of his career by far.  In his All-Star year, when he was playing 10% more minutes/game, he only grabbed 5.4rpg.  His Net Rating is an eye-popping +17.  He is the 3rd leading assist player on the team behind point guards Walker and Smart.  Our losses, however few they still may be, didn't really start to stack up until after Gordon went down.  I think we've all seen how choppy our offense has been without him.  One reason is that if the ball is in Gordon's hands it isn't in Jayson's.  We are 2nd in the east and 3rd in the NBA, and that's without Gordon Hayward.  When he comes back the sky's the limit for this team.

Grade:  A+


Marcus Smart

Our beating heart.  Any attempt to quantify what he brings to this team only serves to highlight how great you might be at fantasy basketball but suck at real basketball.  He wills us forward.  He is our new KG, the player no other player wants to disappoint by giving anything less than 100% every second.  A clear candidate for DPOY, even now.

Grade:  A+



Kemba Walker

The Anti-Kyrie.  Is he as statistically efficent on offense as Kyrie?  No, but he isn't completely ball-centric.  MUCH more of a complementary player, in every sense of the word.  He plays much better defense.  I'm not saying all this because I'm anti-Kyrie, we all know Kemba was brought in to fill the hole created by Kyrie's departure.  So, how's he doing?  I think he's doing fine.  Everybody's happy, happy to play, happy to play with him, happy to have him in the game and, as we saw last year, that's really important.  Sometimes less is more, and that's Kemba's value to this team.  The Js are exploding because they have some room to grow and that's the Kemba Effect.  His touches are down, his fgas/game are down, his scoring average is slightly down and he doesn't care because he's winning, for a change in his career.  That is HUGE.

Grade:  A



Jayson Tatum

On track to be an All-Star.  Averaging 21.2 ppg.  He's starting to feel it and he will gain confidence with the knowledge that he now has the keys to the family car in his hands.  His biggest drawbacks are his poor fg%, which are at career lows, and they're not even close.  His shooting discipline needs some work and, more importantly, he has to stop dribbling into double teams.  As a team I think we would do better if he dribbled less.  That will happen with the return of point forward Gordon Hayward.

Grade:  B+


Daniel Theis

I'm a big Theis fan, have been from the beginning, but he's limited by his size.  He has now become fully integrated into Brad's system, and is really playing quite well.  He's 12th in the league in blocks/game, but when you look at blocks/minute he's 3rd behind Nerlens Noel and Mitchell Robinson.  His Net Rating is a +15, driven by his 99 Defensive Rating.  In this offensive-oriented league a 99 DR is pretty freaking good.  And, perhaps best of all, he's not needy.  He doesn't need touches, he doesn't need shots.  He's averaging 1.3 assists per game and only .8 turnovers.  Anytime you can get a big with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio you're doing well.  I wish he was bigger, but he's playing as well as can be expected and, in my opinion, is exceeding expectations.  Who thought he'd be our starter 21 games ago?

Grade:  B+


Brad Wanamaker

Probably the most pleasant surprise this year.  Sure, we're all happy the two Js are taking off but we kinda all hoped and expected they would.  Who thought some undrafted player who had spent his entire career in Europe would turn out to be this good?  Our bench is very young, very, and this 30 year old comes in and just does his job.  Not flashy, not overly athletic (not really athletic at all) but he somehow manages to stay in front of his man on defense and gets his shoulders past his man on offense.  He's shooting 48.6%, 37.9% from 3 and 89.8% from the line.  That's slightly off from where was last week but is still really impressive.  His assist-to-turnover ratio, a key metric for a ballhandler, is 2.64:1.  He's shooting over 52% from 2.  His Net Rating is a +16.  Is he blowing me away?  No, but he has definitely surprised me with his effectiveness and that's worth some credit because, without Rozier, we needed someone to step up and fill that hole and I think Wanny has done that very well.  Far better than I ever expected or hoped.  On the expectation upswell, he gets a good grade at the quarter pole.

Grade:  B+


Enes Kanter

Despite owning a defense that triggers a gag reflex in me he is still our most effective rebounder.  44% of his rebounds are offensive.  That is a ridiculously high number.  Given my love of offensive rebounding I must confess that will cause me to tilt a bit in his favor, defense (or lack thereof) notwithstanding.  And, because he has no outside game, his fg% is 58.8%.  If he could only defend, but he can't...Still, we need inside presence and he's really the only one we got.

Grade: B


Robert Williams III

He's getting his shot, but he's still inconsistent.  Sometimes he's completely zeroed in and other times he looks lost out there.  What I said before about Theis' Defensive Rating?  The Time Lord's is 95.  He's averaging 14.5 mpg.  He could get more if he didn't make as many mistakes.  I realize his mistakes come from his youth and relative inexperience but they are what they are.  There's a reason why Enes Kanter is getting more minutes than RWill.  I look forward to regrading him at the back stretch.

Grade C+


Semi Ojelaye

He has his stints where he's been good, like the last few games, but in general I'm not seeing the kind of step up I expect to see from a player who has been in the same system, playing for the same coach, for 3 years.  He's shooting an acceptable 35.5% from 3, it just looks worse, and he's a one-trick pony.  There's just one thing that's getting him his 14.4 mpg this year and that's the inability of Grant Williams to put the ball in the hoop.  He was going to get a D but his last few games dragged him up a bit.

Grade:  C


Carsen Edwards

A shooter who is struggling to shoot.  That's his calling card, why he's in the league.  Unlike some others (think Grant Williams) I have no doubt that Edwards will finally break out since he is a natural shooter.  One of his problems is that NBA defenders aren't letting him get a good look at the basket, they close quickly and are up on him as soon as the ball hits his hands.  His defense has been surprisingly good for a little guy.  Feisty and aggressive.  I can't give him a good grade because he isn't hitting his shots but when he does, and I believe it's just a matter of time before he will, look out!

Grade:  C-


Grant Williams

GWill is averaging the same number of minutes as Semi, 14.4, but is averaging fewer points, more fouls and don't get me started on his shooting.  His Defensive Rating is 105, not bad, but his offensive rating is 76.  Taking our expectations of this kid into account there's no way I can give him a passing grade.  I look forward to reviewing him again in 20 games.

Grade:  F


Javonte Green

I like this kid, I think we all do, but he hasn't played enough for him to get a grade.   He's only played a total of 103 minutes.  The good news is that in those limited minutes he's shooting almost 59%.  He's the 15th man, beating out the forgettable Max Strus for the last spot.  My expectations for him are limited, to say the least.  He is fun to watch though.

Grade:  Incomplete


Vincent Poirier

If 103 minutes are too little to deserve a grade then 35 minutes is way to few.  I don't know why he isn't playing more, there must be a good reason considering Kanter's matador defense, but I'm not qualified to answer why he isn't.

Grade:  Incomplete



bob



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Bob

Overall a very reasonable review.  I think I would give Tatum an A- because he is rebounding at a higher level and has been playing more PF this year.  He is making a real effort to stop all the long 2 point attempts and instead is driving to the cup.  Part of my higher rating is about effort.  He is also playing very good defense.

An F for GW means he is a complete failure.  I would give him a solid D.  His usefulness outside of ancillary activity has yet to be seen.  In college he could score and rebound effectively in the paint but it looks like his lack of size, quickness and overall athleticism will not allow him to be a low post scorer or a solid rebounder.  

He lacks the quickness to also play on the wing and may be one of the worse shooters from deep that I have seen in a long time   I think he needs to learn how to shoot.  Every shot is short and now he has resorted to aiming the ball.  I wonder if he has a vision problem.  Depth perception seems lacking.

I wondered how our inexperienced rotation would work.  Not a lot of offense so far but guys like Wannamaker and Semi are playing great defense.  Brad W is giving us solid minutes at the point.

The NBA may not be a good fit for VP.  

With Kanter you have to take the bitter with the sweet.  He will be gone next year.  I like his inside scoring and offensive rebounding.  He is slow though.

Theis has started the majority of games at center.  He averages around 21 MPG.  The reason why he is not a true starting center playing starting center minutes is because of his size.  In addition Theis is a high energy guy but does not have the stamina to play at a high level if he plays too many minutes.  I give him a B.  He is a foul machine and commits stupid fouls every game.  He is out of his element  when matched up with a big physical center.  The reason is clear.  He is not a true center and is playing out of position.

dboss wrote:Bob

Overall a very reasonable review.  I think I would give Tatum an A- because he is rebounding at a higher level and has been playing more PF this year.  He is making a real effort to stop all the long 2 point attempts and instead is driving to the cup.  Part of my higher rating is about effort.  He is also playing very good defense.

An F for GW means he is a complete failure.  I would give him a solid D.  His usefulness outside of ancillary activity has yet to be seen.  In college he could score and rebound effectively in the paint but it looks like his lack of size, quickness and overall athleticism will not allow him to be a low post scorer or a solid rebounder.  

He lacks the quickness to also play on the wing and may be one of the worse shooters from deep that I have seen in a long time   I think he needs to learn how to shoot.  Every shot is short and now he has resorted to aiming the ball.  I wonder if he has a vision problem.  Depth perception seems lacking.

I wondered how our inexperienced rotation would work.  Not a lot of offense so far but guys like Wannamaker and Semi are playing great defense.  Brad W is giving us solid minutes at the point.

The NBA may not be a good fit for VP.  

With Kanter you have to take the bitter with the sweet.  He will be gone next year.  I like his inside scoring and offensive rebounding.  He is slow though.

dboss,

Fine.  GWill gets a gentleman's D instead of an F, although I don't see where he's doing anything right.  

These grades, by me, are performance-to-date, influenced by expectations.  Expectations for Edwards and GWill were pretty high.  Edwards was Fred Van Fleet and GWill was a basketball genius who was a 2X SEC POY and who had a very good summer league and preseason.

Halfway through I'll do this again and I'll make it clear what's only 2nd quarter performance and what is season-to-date.  There's still time for Grant Williams, and certainly for Edwards, to raise their grades significantly.  One thing going in their favor is that, thanks to their less than stellar beginnings, expectations for them have been lowered quite a bit.  Now I'm just hoping Edwards becomes an average 3pt shooter of about 35% (he's currently at 31.3%) and that Grant Williams is just no worse than Semi.


bob


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Bobh,
Thanks.
I mostly agree. A few corrections, thou.
GH - I'd put as incomplete. You can't grade a player of his magnitude after only 7.5 games.
DT - I'd put A or even A+. We all know of his physical/skills limitations, but he always tries to go above and beyond them. Sometimes he succeeds, sometimes he fails.

AK

kdp59 wrote:see if I did this right?

old dogs and all

kdp,

This is great! This spreadsheet will make it SO much easier to do the mid-season grading since we can look back at what we said now and benchmark off that.

My suggestion to those who want to grade the players as the season progresses should provide their grades now so that kdp can add them into this spreadsheet.


Thanks!


bob


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Ok, so it's a little past the mid-point.  There are 34 games left (17 home, 17 away) so that's actually 58.5% through, but I spaced out.  So here we go.

These are my votes as of today.  You can compare your quarter pole thoughts, as posted above, to what you feel today.  It should help provide clarity on trends.

For those of you who didn't join in at the Quarter Pole there's no reason why you cannot start now.

My grades are how I see these players now and comparing them to what I saw at the quarter pole.  So, they are 2nd quarter reviews and not complete season-to-date.



Jaylen Brown

Everything I said at the Quarter Pole is still true, he's just proved me right over a bigger number of games.  As far as I am concerned I think he was robbed of an All-Star nod because the league decided they needed representation from the Miami Heat.  The most amazing thing to me is that I still think he has a long way to go before he hits his ceiling.  He might not/probably won't hit it this year, but it's there for him to go get.

Grade:  A+
Previous Grade:  A+


Gordon Hayward

Once again I stand by my quarter pole assessment, he's doing everything Brad and Danny (and us fans) could ask of him and he has played in 31 games as of now.  With 47 in the books that means he played in all but 3 or 4 of the 26-27 games since the Quarter Pole.  He's healthy, he's delivering and, as a point forward, makes it very hard to stop us.  His rebounds/game is at a career high.  His 51.7% fg% is also at a career high, as is his 88% ft%.  HIs Net Rating, +12, is tied with his all-time career high in his All-Star year.  Our Mr. Do-it-all.

Grade:  A+
Previous Grade:  A+


Marcus Smart

First Team All-Defense.  He was last year and almost certainly will be this year.  His ppg is at a career high but, to be honest, I almost don't care if he never takes another fga, everything else he does makes him invaluable.  His fg% is an awful 37.4%.  That's the only thing that is making me drop him from an A+ down to an A.  I said it wouldn't care if he never took another fga, I didn't say I would ignore that he does take them.  An A is still pretty good.

Grade:  A
Previous Grade:  A+


Kemba Walker

Kemba's numbers are all off some from previous years.  He's still a better fit for this team than you-know-who but his efficiency is down in almost every category.  That means he has to take a bit of a hit.  HOWEVER, his eFG% is at his career high, so what he's doing he's doing efficiently.  Where he's gaining, and he can thank Brad for this, is that while he is taking fewer fgas/game and /minute a higher percentage of his fgas are 3s this year.  He's shooting 38.8% from 3, vs a career 36%, so his eFG% is up because he's getting more points from his 3s and he's taking more of them.  Credit to him for shooting a higher % on 3s, credit to Brad for pushing him that way.  Furthermore, just from an optics perspective, it doesn't look like he's dominating games like he used to.  That might not be his fault, that might just be the J's rising, but nevertheless.  It is strange, though, that I'm giving a lower grade to an All-Star starter than to non All-Stars.

Grade:  B+
Previous Grade:  A


Jayson Tatum

Efficient?  Not particularly, but he still finds ways to score and he's playing defense at a high level.  His scoring is up even as his fg% is at career lows.  His fg% is at a career low, as is his 3pt fg%.  His ftas are a career high, his ft% slightly off.  He has become a volume shooter and scorer, as opposed to Jaylen and Gordon who are much more efficient.  His Net Rating is a mediocre +3.

Grade:  B+
Previous Grade:  B+



Daniel Theis

Still undersized, still gets the job done.  He's not the board monster or inside force Kanter is but his heady play anchors our baseline defense.  His Net Rating is a powerful +21 (124-103).  We know he doesn't score a lot and yet the team scores at a 124 points/100 possessions rate when he's on the floor.  However he does it he's an offensive facilitator.  Maybe his not demanding the ball is the secret although he is shooting 54.5% from the field.  He is who he is and he seems to fit this team well.  We have the 4th best Defensive Rating, as a team, in the league and our starting center deserves some of the credit for that.  Furthermore, we are 3rd in the league in fewest Points In The Paint given up.  Undersized and all we aren't giving up a lot in the paint and, once again, our primary baseline defender deserves to be pushed out to the front of the stage for some of that recognition and applause.

Grade:  B+
Previous Grade:  B+


Brad Wanamaker

His efficiency has dropped off, as has his minutes.  He's still very steady, not a lot of unforced errors, and he's quite strong for his size.  Finishes very well through contact.  His assist-to-turnover ratio has dropped from 2.64:1 at the quarter pole to 1.44:1.  Still a solid NBA back up point guard but he's fallen off his perch a bit.

Grade:  B
Previous Grade:  B+
 

Enes Kanter

Has come on strong since his last report card.  His defense, always inducing a gag reflex in me, no longer does so (at least not consistently).  He is a double-double machine and frees our 4 shooters to fire away knowing that he'll crash the boards and make defenders pay if they switch off him onto the ball.  He's playing the fewest minutes/game since his sophomore season but I don't think I've ever seen him play better than he has the past 20 games.  His Net Rating is an eye-popping +23 (125-102).  I'm struggling to wrap my mind around the name Enes Kanter being associated with a 102 Defensive Rating.  His very impressive 125 Offensive Rating is due to his offensive rebounding.  His offensive rebounding rate/minute is near career highs and when you consider he was on a team with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, players who took a lot of shots, that's pretty amazing what he's doing for us.  By elevating his defense to the point that I don't reflexively projectile hurl when I see him defend, while still doing what he does best, he definitely earns a big upgrade on his score at the halfway mark and my esophagus' undying gratitude.

Grade:  A
Previous Grade:  B


Robert Williams III

Sadly it has not been time well applied for The Time Lord.  His health has now become a serious question mark.  I wish I knew which way he was going to go.  Danny might move him as part of a package as a result of his health and our need to provide Theis and Kanter with greater usable depth (the rarity of Poirier getting on the floor is why I used the word "usable") or to pick up a veteran scorer off the bench.

Grade:  Incomplete
Previous Grade:  C+


Semi Ojelaye

Some nights he's out there playing good defense but can't hit a basket but recently he has played some very good games.  He is being much more aggressive with attacking the basket and he has the foot speed to stay in front of guards when he's switched at the arc but has the body strength to keep bigger players at bay.  His 3pt fg% is up to a roughly league average 36%, which is acceptable for a player only playing 15mpg.  He has gone from a specific role player, a 3-and-D guy specializing in small ball 5 and defending The Freak to a player Brad can put in and knows he'll be where he's supposed to be on offense and defense.  An upgrade is definitely warranted.  

Grade:  B-
Previous Grade:  C


Carsen Edwards

Edwards is in danger of becoming this draft year's Jimmer Fredette.  It's too soon to write him off but he can't seem to get out of Maine even when we need more guards, and I don't expect that to get any easier now that Romeo is healthy.

Grade:  Incomplete
Previous Grade:  C-


Grant Williams

What a difference another 3/8 of a season makes.  He's playing well, he's rebounding (some tough traffic ones too) and, unlike at the quarter pole, he's hitting his shots.  At the quarter pole his Offensive Rating was 78, now it's 99.  Still not great but a sharp upward turn from the quarter pole and, I'll bet, if you culled the numbers from the quarter pole out of his current ratings so you could just see the difference over the past 26 games or so, I think you'd see a reasonable Offensive Rating from GWill.  His 99 is still being diluted by his abysmal offensive start.  His current fg% is 38% but his 3pt fg% is now up to 23%.  I said in my quarter pole analysis I looked forward to reviewing him again at the midway point.  Well, I am, and he is now starting to match up with pre-season expectations.  I still say Brad playing him at small ball 5 so much is doing him a disservice but I have to grade him upon what he is doing and not what I think he would be doing if I was Brad Stevens.  Nevertheless a HUGE well-deserved upgrade is due the young man.  Remember, these grades are for the 2nd quarter of the season and not season-to-date.  If he just improves at being a small ball 5 a bit his grade will come up by the 3/4 pole (or if Brad starts playing him more at his more natural position of 4)

Grade:  B-
Previous Grade:  F


Javonte Green

Say what you will about Javonte but when his number gets called he usually makes the most of his minutes.  As of the quarter pole he had only played a total of 104 minutes.  He has now played 338, more than triple, and he has played him in less than 3X the games.  That shows increasing confidence in him by Brad.  He's shooting 52.7%, an outstanding number by a guard.  His 3pt fg% is 28% but he takes less than 1/game, so who cares?  At 56% his eFG% is quite healthy and we all know how electrified the bench and the fans get when he rises for a dunk.  He's an energy player, living out his dream.  A decent grade is due him, albeit based upon still relatively few minutes.

Grade:  B-
Previous Grade:  Incomplete



Vincent Poirier

The Pear Man has only played 92 minutes, total, this season.  I don't understand it, I don't see what he's doing wrong in the few moments of exposure he gets.

Grade:  Incomplete
Previous Grade:  Incomplete



Romeo Langford

He has only played 114 minutes total.  Can't really judge him yet.  He looks very good when he plays.  He's a slasher, not a shooter, so Brad needs to have him in there at the right time.  The good news is that a lot of slashing is an attitude and attitude is hard to instill.  Shooting is practice, just look at Jaylen and Marcus.  Neither of them could shoot when they came in the league.  Give Romeo a few years and, if Danny and Brad did their usual diligent job of drafting players putting heavy weight on their work ethic and desire to overachieve, he could be a very nice player for us.  There is no worse case scenario for a rookie than to miss summer league, almost all of preseason and the first month or so of regular season.  Romeo didn't even play his first real NBA game until 12/18, game 25.  We just played game 47, so he's been playing fewer games than he missed to begin the season and still he has only played in 12 games.  Nothing for 24, then 12 of the next 23.  Not his fault if he doesn't explode out of the box.  

Grade:  Incomplete
Previous Grade:  N/A


bob


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Shamrock1000 wrote:

jrleftfoot wrote:Excellent summary, bob. I'm not going to run down the list, because I don't strongly disagree with any of your grades . I do think you are being a little hard on Kemba , though. It seems to me that he takes over when he has to and defers when somebody else has the hot hand. Doesn't mind playing off the ball and letting Hayward or Smart run the show. There have been several games where he was taken out, reinserted when the score tightened and immediately restored order.In the short term, and I emphasize that caveat, I believe him to be our most  irreplaceable player. If anyone gets an A ,I believe he should.

Agree. Just out of curiosity Bob, what numbers are you referring to when you say Kemba's numbers are down relative to years past? His 2 pt% is as high as ever, his 3 pt % is up (way up), his efg % is up, his FT% is as high as ever, his ts% is up (as it must be given the other numbers), his PER is as high as ever. His points, rebounds, and assists per game are slightly down, but when considered per 36, they are right up there. Most of his advanced stats are also quite good, and the few that may be down compared to last year are easily explained by the fact that he is on a better, more balanced team (e.g VORP - there are so many good players on the Celtics, no one will have an outsized VORP). I was looking at basketballreference.com btw...

Shamrock,

His fgas, assists/minute, ftas/minute.

These might have to do with the balance on this team but it seems to me his assists and fgas/ftas should not all go down if his Usage Rate stays up. His Usage Rate this year is off from last year but in line with his other years. If he's touching the ball (i.e. Usage) he should be shooting it, passing it or getting fouled with it.

Not a big deal, I thought, I only downgraded him a bit. Or so I thought. Lol.


bob


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