Is Danny Ainge is the best person to lead the Celtics?

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2020/11/30/danny-ainge-sports-radio-celtics-commentary

"If you don’t think he’s the right person to lead it, start paying attention and stop parroting those who don't."

Many Celtics fans are clamoring for Danny Ainge to have a busy offseason. Since coming back to the organization in 2003, Danny Ainge has only won one banner. But that doesn't tell the whole story.

Steven Senne/AP

COMMENTS By Chad Finn, Sports columnist
November 30, 2020

The last time I typed here about the Celtics, I said that Boston sports radio is at its worst when it talks NBA.

I would like to apologize for that. I was wrong.

It’s actually gambling sports radio that’s the worst. Celtics talk, due to many hosts’ ignorance or disingenuousness when it comes to how Danny Ainge does his job, is the second most insufferable topic.

We don’t regret the error. Carry on.

OK, so that’s not much of an apology. It’s the best you’re going to get, pal. Gambling sports radio and the life-force draining tediousness of hosts telling you in all of their practiced high-roller jargon how they bet and why while you wonder if they keep a bankruptcy lawyer on retainer is a surefire way to get me to switch my radio to the station with the hits of the ‘70s, ‘80s and today.

Celtics talk is only slightly less annoying, because it perpetuates this warped perception that Ainge has somehow failed since the Celtics’ president of basketball operations returned to the organization in May 2003 as the – unofficial title here – primary basketball honcho and chief talent-procurer.

There is an embarrassingly large and loud contingent of alleged Celtics fans, many of whom beat the odds and actually figured out how to start social media accounts, who actually believe that he’s not good at his job.

It’s apparent that many of them, if not the majority, take their cues from the hot-takers on sports radio. Their buzzwords match the lingo – the term “green teamers” is a dead giveaway that you’re not thinking for yourself – and so do the unrealistic expectations that are parroted.

Much of the noise centers around one fact, delivered with no context: The Celtics have won one championship in Ainge’s 17 seasons. It certainly would be cool if they had added an 18th banner in 2009 or 2010 or even in more recent years. But that take disregards so much that it has to be willful, and perhaps that purposeful ignorance is impenetrable.

I’ll give it a go anyway. If it convinces one person to appreciate the calculus that goes into building an NBA team, or at least gets someone to stop using that  “green teamers” term designed to dismiss those who pay attention, it’s worth it. So here’s a rough timeline of Ainge’s time in Boston.

Arrives in May 2003 as a surprising hire during the playoffs, when the Celtics lost in the second round to the Nets … Begins rebuilding, trading Antoine Walker to Dallas … drafts the likes of Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, and Rajon Rondo during the rebuild from 2003-2006 … Hires Doc Rivers as coach … misses out on Kevin Durant in 2007 draft – yes, he would have been the pick – when the ping-pong balls refuse to cooperate …

Pivots, and trades first-rounder Jeff Green to the Sonics in a deal for star guard Ray Allen … uses Jefferson and other accumulated assets to acquire Kevin Garnett from the Timberwolves, uniting him with Allen and Paul Pierce for a new big three … Celtics win 2008 title, have perhaps a better team in ’09 and ’10, but Garnett’s knee issues interfere … Keeps that beloved group together through the 2012 season, after which Allen leaves to join the Heat … Goes full rebuild on draft night 2013 when he deals franchise icon Pierce and Garnett along with secondary pieces to the Nets for three first-round picks, the rights to swap a fourth, and assorted players …

Stuns the basketball world when he hires Butler whiz kid Brad Stevens as coach when Rivers goes to the Clippers for a pick … spends a 2014 first-round pick on Marcus Smart, who becomes the quintessential gritty Celtic … steals Isaiah Thomas in a 2015 deal with the Suns … signs Al Horford as a July 2016 free agent, the first major free agent ever to choose Boston … Uses one Nets pick to select Jaylen Brown No. 3 overall in 2016; the pick is booed by Celtics fans … Uses another Nets pick to trade out of the first spot in the 2017 draft, move to third and take Jayson Tatum … signs coveted free agent Gordon Hayward … acquires star guard Kyrie Irving from the Cavaliers …

Reaches three of the last four Eastern Conference finals despite horrible luck that includes a brutal Hayward injury and Irving being an all-time chemistry killer who departed after wrecking a loaded 2018 Celtics team … signs Kemba Walker after Irving bails to go kill the Nets … gets a massive trade exception from the Hornets after Hayward takes their absurd $120 million offer … rapidly rebuilds a contending team after one era or another comes to an end, and does it in an era in which there is an extremely high degree of difficulty in building a contender, unless LeBron James chooses your city as his next destination… never, ever tanks.

By the way, that’s the condensed version of the Ainge timeline.

I don’t know, seems like the kind of open-minded dealmaker you’d want running your team.

Because I am not a sports radio host, I will recognize the other side of the argument, as exaggerated as it may be. Ainge has missed on some draft picks lately. I still have no clue what they saw in Guerschon Yabusele as a basketball player. He’s held on to draft capital that has lost value. He made the mistake of not recognizing that Giannis Antetokounmpo, the 15th pick in the 2013 draft, would grow at least two inches and possessed untapped superpowers.

What else am I missing? Oh, right: The Hayward situation. The story is current enough that it’s not necessary for a deep synopsis here. Hayward opted out of the final year of his contract, at $34.8 million. He reportedly wanted to go the Pacers. The Celtics tried to work a sign and trade with the Pacers. Colleague Gary Washburn reported that Ainge’s ask was steep, including Myles Turner and either T.J. Warren or Victor Oladipo. The Pacers passed. Michael Jordan dropped a vault of cash at Hayward’s feet. Hayward took the cash and became a Hornet. We don’t know how much Indiana offered, or whether Hayward would have taken it.

Ainge salvaged the departure, getting a valuable trade exception worth almost $28 million in a sign-and-trade with the Hornets. He added Tristan Thompson – whom I believe wholeheartedly Ainge prefers to Myles Turner – as a free agent. It stinks losing Hayward, a good player dealt a bad hand here.

But he was also absent during the first two rounds of the Celtics playoff run. It’s possible this year’s team is better than the one we saw for much of the postseason, when they won those two rounds without him.

Once again, Ainge pivoted when something didn’t go the Celtics’ way. He’s done that remarkably well in his 17 years and the various incarnations of compelling and successful Celtics teams.

Yes, there’s been just one banner on his watch. The quest doesn’t end. If you don’t think he’s the right person to lead it, start paying attention and stop parroting those who don’t.

My comment:  If you answer NO, please suggest who you think should replace him and why.

Also, it is a simple Yes or No question with two options for either.  There is no Other.

the only guy that could have done better, that I can think of would be LeBron James.

if he'd been our GM, coach, star player we'd have won more titles over the years!

not sure if that is an option, but it has been the reality of the NBA over the last 10 years or so at least.




fact is  it will soon be time to move on from Ainge, as age and health are starting to take it's toll.

then it will be a fun poll, to see who Celtic fans think should "replace" the retired Ainge.

He’s done as good a job as one can do. There’s been some good luck/bad luck but lots of opportunities created while maintaining a competitive team.

The answer to his successor is Mike Zarren.

Danny could have done better drafting,  the article paints over all the misses.  I would say he had more misses than hits.

How many people could name 5 GM's.  Not me.  It is not like naming coaches.   I would probably rate the Raptor GM up there.  If we did not have Danny we would have to find someone else to bitch about.

dboss wrote:Danny could have done better drafting,  the article paints over all the misses.  I would say he had more misses than hits.

How many people could name 5 GM's.  Not me.  It is not like naming coaches.   I would probably rate the Raptor GM up there.  If we did not have Danny we would have to find someone else to bitch about.

He's certainly had some busts (e.g. Fab Mello), but for the most part, he's done a good job drafting, when you consider some of the players he picked up mid-1st round who ended up outplaying their draft position. Rondo (21st) is an obvious example of that, along with Big Al (15th), Bradley (19th) and Perkins (27th), but there have been others over the years, like Delonte West, Tony Allen, etc.. And if you look at who was available in a lot of those drafts at the spots the Cs picked, there wasn't much better afterward. Giannis is an obvious exception to that, but 14 other teams also missed him. When he's drafted high, he's gotten Smart, Brown, and Tatum, who are all top-quality players. Jeff Green wasn't worth a #5 pick (though I don't remember who Ainge passed on to draft him), but he turned into Ray Allen, so that's forgiven. I'd say his biggest issue has been drafting effective big men, but again, I'd want to go back and do an analysis of who was available at the time he picked, say Mello, to see who was available after him.

Something I think he's generally been good at, aside from Kyrie, is putting together teams that compliment one another really well, getting more out of the sum than their parts would indicate. The IT team that went to the conference finals was a good example of that, as was the (2018?) team that made it deep into the playoffs in spite of Kyrie's injury. He's had teams without an obvious pairing of superstars have consistent success without going into a Philly-style train wreck rebuild for a very long period of time.

BaronV wrote:

dboss wrote:Danny could have done better drafting,  the article paints over all the misses.  I would say he had more misses than hits.

How many people could name 5 GM's.  Not me.  It is not like naming coaches.   I would probably rate the Raptor GM up there.  If we did not have Danny we would have to find someone else to bitch about.

He's certainly had some busts (e.g. Fab Mello), but for the most part, he's done a good job drafting, when you consider some of the players he picked up mid-1st round who ended up outplaying their draft position.  Rondo (21st) is an obvious example of that, along with Big Al (15th), Bradley (19th) and Perkins (27th), but there have been others over the years, like Delonte West, Tony Allen, etc..  And if you look at who was available in a lot of those drafts at the spots the Cs picked, there wasn't much better afterward.  Giannis is an obvious exception to that, but 14 other teams also missed him.  When he's drafted high, he's gotten Smart, Brown, and Tatum, who are all top-quality players.  Jeff Green wasn't worth a #5 pick (though I don't remember who Ainge passed on to draft him), but he turned into Ray Allen, so that's forgiven.  I'd say his biggest issue has been drafting effective big men, but again, I'd want to go back and do an analysis of who was available at the time he picked, say Mello, to see who was available after him.  

Something I think he's generally been good at, aside from Kyrie, is putting together teams that compliment one another really well, getting more out of the sum than their parts would indicate.  The IT team that went to the conference finals was a good example of that, as was the (2018?) team that made it deep into the playoffs in spite of Kyrie's injury.  He's had teams without an obvious pairing of superstars have consistent success without going into a Philly-style train wreck rebuild for a very long period of time.  

Baron,

A pretty concise summation.

Jeff Green was picked #5 by Danny specifically for Seattle/OKC as part of the draft day trade for Ray Allen.  Would Danny have taken Jeff Green if there was no trade?  We'll never know, but he did trade Perk and Nate Robinson to OKC to get Green and Nenad Krstic so he at least appreciated him after a few years of seasoning.  I wouldn't put any weight into the draft position though, that was all about Ray.

Drafting in the lower half of the first round becomes much more problematic.  When you see that a #22 pick like Grant Williams has a 65% chance of being a "deep bench" player you start to appreciate just how hard it is for GMs to find pearls in the mud of the lower first round.  Fab Melo was also a #22 pick.  A #26 pick like Payton Pritchard?  They have a 30% chance of being "a bust" and another 15% chance of being "deep bench".  

Look at the picks Danny has had in the top 10, Smart and the two Js for example.  All 3 were winners.  Why?  Because they were high picks for a reason.  We like to talk about "the ones that got away", like Giannis.  Cowens loved to go on and on about how we missed taking DeAndre Jordan, who was a #35 pick.  Yeah, but look at all the other GMs who passed on him too!

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm


Bob


.

Jeff Green was part of the Ray Allen trade.

The record is a 17 year record.

Bottom line Danny is behind on the 5 year rebuild. He has had tons of 1st round picks. How many more years do we have to wait to at least get in the finals?

I give him this year but next season the timer goes off on a failed 5 year rebuild that will be approaching a decade. Danny however is not alone. Brad Steven's needs to be a better coach.

Danny is smart enough to hold on to the TPE until he determines needs.

Fans already have this asset spent.

OK, there has to be one of us in every crowd...

I didn't vote because I don't see a yes or no that fits.

I think Danny Ainge has been a better than average GM and has done a good job. I don't rate him a basketball genius, nor do I rank him anywhere near a failure. His hits equal his misses and he's built a very competitive team. He's among the better GMs in the game.

NYCelt wrote:OK, there has to be one of us in every crowd...

I didn't vote because I don't see a yes or no that fits.

I think Danny Ainge has been a better than average GM and has done a good job. I don't rate him a basketball genius, nor do I rank him anywhere near a failure. His hits equal his misses and he's built a very competitive team. He's among the better GMs in the game.

NYCelt

I could not have explained it better. I would also have voted other if available.

dboss wrote:

NYCelt wrote:OK, there has to be one of us in every crowd...

I didn't vote because I don't see a yes or no that fits.

I think Danny Ainge has been a better than average GM and has done a good job. I don't rate him a basketball genius, nor do I rank him anywhere near a failure. His hits equal his misses and he's built a very competitive team. He's among the better GMs in the game.

NYCelt

I could not have explained it better.  I would also have voted other if available.

Of course that's not a commentary on gyso's poll-making skills.

Plus, he has the NBA contract details down well enough that I'd give him Danny's job without question!

I'd have been fired from the top job long ago. I know just enough to be dangerous.

gyso wrote:I'd have been fired from the top job long ago.  I know just enough to be dangerous.

And here I just sent a couple of guys named Wyc and Irv your phone number...

I too voted number 2 and I still believe he's screwed up big time on more than one occasion. I believe he has also costs us a title or 2. Like everyone here, my standards are high and maybe I’m less forgiving. With that being said there are probably 25 other GM’s in the league that are worse than Danny but I don’t give a flip about them and refuse to settle. The 3 GM’s that I would take over Danny right now are Myers at GS, Buford in SA and Majuri in Toronto.

I voted for #2. I do not have enough information on potential trades Danny passed up nor do I have enough information on the working relationship he has with Stevens. On the latter, does Danny look for the best players that fit Stevens coaching strategy or players that are great at their respective positions that can be acquired.

Look, it could be worse, look at the Knicks and a whole bunch of other teams GM/presidents.

If I were to describe Danny in a nut shell, it would be STEADY AND RELIABLE. That is the best you can ask for in a basketball world that is so complex, so vacillating, and for the most part, full of ego spoiled players with no loyalty.

Ya Danny is a keeper!

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