JB/JT vs KL/PG A Comparison in Time

How valuable are Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.  They are too of the best pair of young wings in the NBA.    The gold standard are the two that play for the Clippers.  How do our guys compare based on where they are in terms of experience to those LAC guys at the same point in time of their careers.

Our guys are ahead of them by a year.

Jaylen Brown year 4 vs Leonard year 5

Brown    33.9 MPG /15.6 FGA / 20.3PPG/6.4 Rebounds/2.1 Assists/1.1 steals
Leonard  33.1 MPG /15.1 FGA /21.2 PPG/6.8 Rebounds/2.6 Assist 1.8 steals

Jaylen's year 4 numbers match up closely with Kawhi year 5 numbers.  Jaylen's year 4 numbers were better scoring vs Kawhi year 4 (20.3 vs 16.5)

Jayson Tatum year 3 numbers vs Paul George year 4 numbers

Tatum  34.4 MPG/ 18.6 FGA/ 23.4 PPG/7 rebounds/3 assists/1.4 steals
George 36.2 MPG/ 17 FGA/ 21.7 PPG/6.8 rebounds/3.5 assists/ 1.8 steals

Jayson Tatum year 3 numbers are slightly better than Paul George year 4 numbers.  Jayson's year 3 number were better than Paul George year 3 numbers.

Our guys have upside and should get much better in every aspect of their skills.  KL and PG are both in their prime.  They are not going to get better.

I expect to see the J's continue to push forward as their experience level increases.  

KL and PG have 19 combined years of experience and the JT and JB have only 7 years combined experience.  This year they put up combined numbers of:

KL/PG  (48.5 points per game/ 12.8 rebounds /8 assists/3.2 steals)
JT/JB   (43.7 Points per game/13.4 rebounds /5.1 assists /2.5 steals)

My expectations are that JB and JT will catch and exceed the gold standard this coming season.

As fans are out there are always looking to trade JB just consider the body of work and how our J's pairing will keep the Celtics in contention for years.

We do not need any more prima donna player like KI or James Harden.

A lot of those stats are based on usage, Jaylen was held back by Kemba and GH and he still put up efficient numbers and we all know he can do more. Both guys will get more touches and chances to initiate the offense this year. Looking forward to seeing their growth, they are the franchise.

dboss wrote:As fans are out there are always looking to trade JB just consider the body  of work and how our J's pairing will keep the Celtics in contention for years.

We do not need any more prima donna player like KI or James Harden.  

Exactly +1

Any chance Danny would use the TPE and package it in a 3 way trade with the Nets and Houston to trade JB and JT for KI and JH?

Any chance there would be enough rooms in the Belmont mental hospital to accomodate all us Celtics fans if such a trade took place?

Oh god no...!!!

Please lord no no!!!!!!!!!

The two intolerable players on the same team - imagine the combustability.

when I do a quick search for player comparisons for Brown, the one that come up the most is Jimmy Butler. Most player comps are typically around the time they are drafted. But I would say that one has stood up pretty well today, as I see Butler closer to do (or equal to) Butler over Leonard.

Tatum is tougher as many of the draft comparisons had Rudy Gay as a comp for him. Tatum had outplayed that one already for sure. I don't see the Paul George comparison as a great one either, as Tatum is more of a 3-4 to me while George is a 3-2 wing only. So I guess Gay is closer for me.

here is an interesting article making comparisons from some of the young players today  with past  (or current)NBA stars. Tatum is on the list but not Brown.

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/doncic_bird_historical_comparisons_for_young_nba_stars/s1__31594439#slide_4


some of them seem pretty good and others not so much to me, but a good read non the less.

For those not reading they compare Tatum to Durant.

here is a link to Tatum and Durant's third season ( note the per 36 minutes #)

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=duranke01&p1yrfrom=2010&player_id2=tatumja01&p2yrfrom=2020


Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butlers 4th years here:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=brownja02&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2=butleji01&p2yrfrom=2015

dboss wrote:How valuable are Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.  They are too of the best pair of young wings in the NBA.    The gold standard are the two that play for the Clippers.  How do our guys compare based on where they are in terms of experience to those LAC guys at the same point in time of their careers.

Our guys are ahead of them by a year.

Jaylen Brown year 4 vs Leonard year 5

Brown    33.9 MPG /15.6 FGA / 20.3PPG/6.4 Rebounds/2.1 Assists/1.1 steals
Leonard  33.1 MPG /15.1 FGA /21.2 PPG/6.8 Rebounds/2.6 Assist 1.8 steals

Jaylen's year 4 numbers match up closely with Kawhi year 5 numbers.  Jaylen's year 4 numbers were better scoring vs Kawhi year 4 (20.3 vs 16.5)

Jayson Tatum year 3 numbers vs Paul George year 4 numbers

Tatum  34.4 MPG/ 18.6 FGA/ 23.4 PPG/7 rebounds/3 assists/1.4 steals
George 36.2 MPG/ 17 FGA/ 21.7 PPG/6.8 rebounds/3.5 assists/ 1.8 steals

Jayson Tatum year 3 numbers are slightly better than Paul George year 4 numbers.  Jayson's year 3 number were better than Paul George year 3 numbers.

Our guys have upside and should get much better in every aspect of their skills.  KL and PG are both in their prime.  They are not going to get better.

I expect to see the J's continue to push forward as their experience level increases.  

KL and PG have 19 combined years of experience and the JT and JB have only 7 years combined experience.  This year they put up combined numbers of:

KL/PG  (48.5 points per game/ 12.8 rebounds /8 assists/3.2 steals)
JT/JB   (43.7 Points per game/13.4 rebounds /5.1 assists /2.5 steals)

My expectations are that JB and JT will catch and exceed the gold standard this coming season.

Dboss,

For a little additional perspective, Jaylen in Year 3 was 23 years old while Kawhi in Year 4 was 24 years old.  So not just a year more NBA experience but a year older too.  At this point being a year older is actually a good thing.

Furthermore, Kawhi shot 50.6% that year and 44.3% from 3.  Jaylen was 48.1% and 38.4%.


As far as JT vs PG13 goes:

Tatum shot 45% and 40% from 3.  George shot 42.4% and 36.4%.  Tatum's eFG% was 52.7% while PG's was 49%.  

Tatum's assist-to-turnover ratio (which reflects how much you can trust him with the ball in his hands) was 1.3:1 (3apg, 2.3TO) and PG's was 1.25:1 (3.5apg, 2.8TO).  What's interesting with this is what happened with PG after that year.  He broke his leg the next year.  He was not himself the next year, obviously.  The 3rd year after breaking his leg (out 1 year, 1 year to "get back", then the 3rd year) PG's assist-to-TO ratio was 1.13:1 (3.3apg, 2.9TO).  George's best year was 2 years ago, in OKC, when he averaged 1.52:1.  Tatum has said he has been working on his reads and how to "involve his teammates more".  This focus will increase his assist totals but will also, no doubt, increase his turnovers.  If/when he gets better at this his assist-to-turnover ratio will probably go up (perhaps not this year, since this is new to him, but maybe the year after this one) and then he will clearly pass Paul George in this.  He's already better, in my opinion, and not just year 3 vs year 4 but year 3 vs NOW.

And then there's these tasty morsels:  82games.com keeps track of "Clutch Stats".  This is data for players with 5 minutes or less in regulation and OT (which is 5 minutes long, so it automatically qualifies as "clutch time") and when the point difference is 5 points or less.  So points scored in the last 5 minutes of a game and you're up or down 10 aren't included.  The numbers are /36 minutes of clutch time, so you can't really compare players like Giannis, who are on the floor for clutch time every game, and some player who gets spot duty for a key possession or two, but the four players we're comparing here all qualify.  Having more clutch minutes might be more of a reflection of the quality of the team than anything.  If your team is blowing everybody out there won't be as many clutch minutes, but they do help to give an idea of how large a sample size we're talking about.

What's so great about this is that it is sortable, so you can rank players based upon category.

http://www.82games.com/1920/CSORT6.HTM


CLUTCHNESS - 2019-2020 season

() = Rank vs Other Qualifying NBA players on list
........................Total Mins....fgas.............fg%............3ptfgas.......3ptfg%.......Points.........Rebs
Jaylen Brown----97 (68)------12.7 (79)----44.1(77)-----6.3 (58)-----41.2 (41)---17.9 (68)----8.6 (53)
Kawhi Leonard--79 (105)-----20.1 (32)----38.6 (106)---6.4 (57)-----14.3 (141)--27.8 (28)----7.3 (70)

Jayson Tatum---132 (13)-----20.2 (30)----50 (51)-------7.6 (45)-----35.7 (67)---29.4 (20)----5.2 (123)
Paul George-----59 (148)-----20.2 (31)----36.4 (119)---12.8 (6)-----38.1 (53)---28.1 (26)----6.7 (82)


What we see is that KL and PG jack up a lot of shots in the clutch.  Maybe that's because they didn't have a Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward that could take some of the pressure to score off them.  PG, in particular, loved to take 3s.  12.8 out of 20.2 fgas were 3s for him, 63.3%.  Any coach worth their salt would be telling their players that they need to get up on Paul George at the 3pt line during clutch time.

I realize this is comparing a couple of young players against more veteran players and not 3rd year vs 4 year, but the point I was trying to make is that they aren't that far apart now.  With Gordon gone and Kemba out for 4-5 weeks I expect to see Jaylen's fgas to go up.

It's interesting to see where Kemba, Theis, Hayward and Smart fell on this list for the various categories too.


Bob


.

Interesting and agreed they are not that far apart right now bob, as a matter of fact both those guys sucked vs Nuggets, especially in last 3 games, costing Doc his job. Amazing how much better Jaylen’s numbers were than Kawhi’s. What is the 13 for in the total 132 minutes Tatum has? Don’t understand this stat at all, if you could explain it....???

cowens/oldschool wrote:Interesting and agreed they are not that far apart right now bob, as a matter of fact both those guys sucked vs Nuggets, especially in last 3 games, costing Doc his job. Amazing how much better Jaylen’s numbers were than Kawhi’s. What is the 13 for in the total 132 minutes Tatum has? Don’t understand this stat at all, if you could explain it....???

Cow,

It means that Tatum played the 13th most Clutch Minutes last season.

Here's the sort:
http://www.82games.com/1920/CSORT2.HTM


Bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Interesting and agreed they are not that far apart right now bob, as a matter of fact both those guys sucked vs Nuggets, especially in last 3 games, costing Doc his job. Amazing how much better Jaylen’s numbers were than Kawhi’s. What is the 13 for in the total 132 minutes Tatum has? Don’t understand this stat at all, if you could explain it....???

Cow,

It means that Tatum played the 13th most Clutch Minutes last season.

Here's the sort:
http://www.82games.com/1920/CSORT2.HTM


Bob


.

Then I totally don’t understand how that can be accurate, so Kawhi was 148th?

cowens/oldschool wrote:

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Interesting and agreed they are not that far apart right now bob, as a matter of fact both those guys sucked vs Nuggets, especially in last 3 games, costing Doc his job. Amazing how much better Jaylen’s numbers were than Kawhi’s. What is the 13 for in the total 132 minutes Tatum has? Don’t understand this stat at all, if you could explain it....???

Cow,

It means that Tatum played the 13th most Clutch Minutes last season.

Here's the sort:
http://www.82games.com/1920/CSORT2.HTM


Bob


.

Then I totally don’t understand how that can be accurate, so Kawhi was 148th?

No. Paul George played the 148th most clutch minutes. Kawhi played the 105th most.

I guess the Clips didn't have many close games towards the end, or OTs.


Bob


.

Got it, well glad our young studs are even more efficient at clutch time

kdp59

The Butler/Brown comparison is good however the theme of this thread is to highlight our pair of wings as compared to the two best pair in the NBA, Leonard/George.  The evidence presented especially additional detail developed by Bobh, should give all Celtics fans a better understanding of how good our pair truly are.  

They have a high ceiling and both are ahead of KL and PG at the same timeframe of their early careers.  Here are a few things each of them can work on to get even better.

Jayson Tatum is a guy that is on the cusp of becoming a 25-30 PPG player.  He had a tremendous post season.  He needs to continue to work on scoring at the rim and his midrange game.  His  ability to facilitate the offense took a big leap during the post season and I suspect we are going to see much more of that when the season begins.  He has all the tools needed to become an Elite player.  In many respects he is already there.  He can get easier shots by increasing his movement, cutting to the basket  and running harder in transition.  Jayson has a great handle but still needs to tighten it up a bit as sometimes the ball gets away from him.  

Jaylen Brown had a tremendous year.  I listened to an interview yesterday and this young man knows what he needs to do to get better.  Jaylen looks like a 25-28 ppg player.  He does some things better than his sidekick Jayson.  For example he shot 54.3% on 2PA as compared to 48.0% by Jayson And in the postseason 55% for him and 47.1% for Jayson.  Jaylen is a flat out physical stud who can get to the rim and score at a high level.  His ball handling got better but there remains room for improvement.  Brad should play him more up top in PNR situations.  I have seen too many games where he is buried in the corner, often times not touching the ball during a possession.  He also need to continue to improve his free throw shooting.  He showed great improvement YOY going from 65.8% to 72.4% during the season and lit it up in the post season while shooting 84.1% from the line.  Brown needs more than 15.6 FGA per game.  He needs to be in the 18-19 FGA per game level and given his efficiency as a scorer it makes great sense to get him more shot opportunities.

Both players need to increase their assists totals to become complete players.

OK, I see what your doing there, with Leonard and George on the same team. Though I'll still take Durant and Butler clones instead....

how long will Leonard and George play together anyway and will they win anything together is a valid question.

Jimmy Butler had a career year last year, still do not think he is at Kawhi’s level and Jaylen’s game is already as good or superior to Butler, but he was not used right enough by his coach IMHO. If Jaylen’s game going forward is only on Jimmy Butler’s level, I will be disappointed.

So let me try to understand here then.

Kawhi is better than George , right?

at least in my mind he is. So IF we are saying that Tatum is like George and brown is like Leonard, then Brown is/ will be the better player.

I disagree with that premise for sure!

Tatum IS better than Brown and will be if both stay healthy. I am not taking anything away from Brown when I say that.

Jordan had Pippen and hopefully years from now, they will be saying Tatum had Brown in the same breath.

Most know I have been a big fan of Jimmy Butler for a while and I would want him on my team over Paul George all day long.

I don’t know about all that, but I’ll gladly take 2 J’s over Butler and PG. I think PG is very overrated, he stunk up the playoffs for his team last year. Kawhi has a better and obviously more storied resume than 2 J’s right now, so can’t take anything away from him. My pecking order would be Kawhi Tatum Brown PG Butler.

More clarification is needed I guess.  The focus is about pairing of high profile  wings that play for the same team.

I did the comparison between Brown and KL because they have more similar physical characteristics.  Same reasoning for The Tatum-George comparison.  

This is not about who on one team is the better player.  I am looking at symmetry.  Size, height, weight, etc.

Jimmy Butler with another great wing on his team could lend itself to a similar pairing. That is not the case. Jimmy is a great player but he has no relevancy to the theme of this thread, with all due respect