The Aftermath

As the Celtics head into the off season with a bag full of unknowns, it is difficult to appreciate what their priorities will be. Priorities have differing timelines and therefore we are more likely to see a staggered approach to what they actually are able to do.

As the winds of change have blown through this organization the new # 1 priority is to evaluate and hire a new coach. That new coach will put together a new coaching staff. That new coach will be involved in building the roster including the upcoming draft, free agency and potential trades. His opinion must be factored into Brad's decisions. We do not know who that coach might be and even if we did, we would have no idea about his coaching philosophy or evaluation of the roster.

Brad Stevens is now at the helm but he is likely to lean heavily on Danny, his son Austin as well as Mike Zarren. In the end, Brad has to be the one to make the big decisions. We know that Brad is a big time analytics guy so the work done by David Sparks, the Celtics Director of Basketball Analytics will be influential. My only hope is that analytics will be used as a tool and not as a solution. And that Brad will not be overly influenced by the old heads in the office.

The new coach

There are plenty of qualified candidates to choose from. When Danny decided to hire Brad it made a lot of sense because the Celtics were in a full blown rebuild mode. A high profile coach that is interested in the job is NOT coming in there to partake in another rebuild project. They will want a stable roster to work with. The Celtics have only one really bad contract on the books. It severely impacts their CAP and prospect for paying tax penalty payments. I do not believe the owners want to go there yet but they may have to. The new coach will be looking at Brad and the ownership group to retain a competitive roster. The Celtics coaching opening is very attractive even with the roster improvements that need to be made.

The Draft

People can agree to disagree. When I look at the number of first round picks that were accumulated by Danny Ainge as the rebuild got underway and the number of misfits I would say that he has been quite average. He hit B2B home runs but still managed to squander a lot of draft capitol. What really aggravates me is that 2019 draft. You remember that one? Yesterday the All NBA Defensive Teams were announced and the Sixers Thybulle in only his 2nd year made the 2nd all defensive team.. Danny Ainge made a big mistake in trading him. He was the 20th pick and Danny moved him to the Sixers for the 24 pick and the 33rd pick in the 2nd round. Then Danny trades the 24 pick along with Aron Baynes to the Suns for the Bucks 2020 first round pick. That pick landed at #30 this past year and Danny traded that pick (Desmond Bane) to Memphis for two future 2nd round picks. Rumor has it that Danny made these deals to save some money. Bane shot over 40% from deep in his rookie year on 4 attempts per game. If salary consideration was part of the decision making process it brings us right back to the Kemba Walker contract or at the very least, a determined reluctance on the part of the ownership group to ante up the money.

Boston has the 16th pick in the first round. I think there is a quality player that can be found there. The Celtics also have the 45 pick in the 2nd round. The Celtics have long term needs at both center and PG. If they can address one of those needs in the draft that would be great. If they need to trade one or both picks to address those needs then they need to proceed.

Free Agency

Evan and Semi are free agents. Evan is going to want something in the $18 million per category. If the Celtics resign him they will be deep in the tax. When looking at his market value I am using Bogdan Bogdanovic as a template. He signed as a FA with the Hawks for $18 million (4 years for $72 million) he is a similar player to Evan. When the Hawks signed him and Gallinari, they had plenty of CAP space. Unfortunately Boston is not in that situation. If and until the Kemba Walker situation is resolved I think the Celtics will keep their wallet in their pocket but we will soon find out.

Semi was a 2nd rounder and has settled in as a part time rotation player. He will be coming off of a $1.429 million contract. That is not a lot of money. His utilization under Brad was up and down. The cost for a replacement player may be higher. For example the 16th pick last year got $3.1 million.

Kornet is also a FA and making $2.25 mill and unless we draft or trade to add a center, he likely remains on the team.

Parker has a nonguaranteed $2.283 salary next season. He is one of several undersized PF on the team. If the new coach wants him he should stay for the year. He could also be traded in February.

Marcus Smart will be on an expiring contract at around $14.4 million. If Boston does not intend on resigning him then he will be a asset to trade. I have a gut feeling that his tenure on this team has reached its' expiration date. My apologies to all the fans that cannot envision life without Marcus.

Robert Williams is extension eligible but ongoing availability concerns puts a damper on an extension. I still think Boston should resign him to avoid the potential of a bidding war in the summer of 2022.

Trades

I think that you have to begin with the obvious keepers. However your keepers are other team's targets. First I am keeping Jayson and Jaylen. I know Jaylen's name is all over the place with all sorts of trade scenarios. I am not trading him in a lateral move or in a positional move. I would not trade him for a center or a PG although those are both positions where additions and subtractions are needed to improve this team. One of the most overlooked evaluations by fans when they look at trading one player for another is positional value and timeline. For example we need a floor general level PG and Lillard's name has popped up a few times. Dame has a new 4 year $176 million contract that kicks in next year. The Celtics would have to include another $20,000,000 in salary if Jaylen was part of that trade. Dame turns 31 next month. He is a single position player.

I am just using the above as an example not that I believe a trade like that would be considered.

I think RWIII is a keeper because he is our best center, is only 23 and can probably be retained for a reasonable salary. He is a great fit for the Celtics at both ends. It makes zero sense to move him this off season. His availability during the 2021-22 season will set his price.

Youngsters, RL, AN and PP are keepers and each has potential to develop into solid rotation players or starters. RL could be a defensive replacement for Marcus. However if you had to sacrifice one of them in a trade then go for it. I see these 3 as part of our core group moving forward. That's 6 players. So there remains 11 guys including the 2 way guys that can be part of any roster reconstruction.

Walker's situation remains at the forefront of the Celtics ability to move forward. Fans need to accept the real possibility that the Celtics may not be able to move him during the offseason or if he is moved equal value is not walking through the door. Celtics fans need to accept the fact that several teams in the East have caught up and even jumped ahead of us. Celtics fans should hunker down and give Stevens and the incoming coach the time to put us back in the mix to contend. Walker has yet to fully recover from his knee issue. Managing his situation greatly hurt the continuity on this team. If he is able to come back full time next season it would help the team and also improve his value around the league. I expect that the Celtics will remain focused on moving him regardless. You see, Walker is not a true floor general and therefore he is a less than a desirable fit for this team.

Really excellent summary Dboss. I agree with almost all your points. Overall though, I might be a little less pessimistic. When I look at the Celtics payroll, I don't see too many mistakes. Other than maybe Kemba, it seems to me that everyone else's contract is either fair or a bargain. JT is a max level player, and should be paid as such. I also happen to think JB is a max level player, so we have him at a discount and thus he is a bargain. Smart is also probably underpaid - another bargain. Getting Tristan for 9 million a year seems about right. Fournier for 17 million seems about right, and I think it may shake out that he signs for something similar if not actually less. Everyone else is either on a rookie contract, a room exception, or a vet minimum - in other words, the minimum they could be paid.

So really, Boston only has one suspect contract out of 17. I haven't done a league-wide analysis, but I doubt there are many teams better off financially than this. Some may have less encumbered salary, but they also have less talent. The roster balance may be a bit off, but other than Kemba, Ainge has put together a team where everyone is either paid fairly, or is a bargain. Like you, I am not sure Kemba will be moved. Unlike you, I am not sure that is such a death knell. I totally agree that his availability threw team chemistry out of whack to a degree. But suppose he is healthier next season - he is perfectly suited to being a 3rd or 4th option, and could fill that role well. Add in his leadership, experience, and willingness to defer to the rising stars, and his contract is not so awful. Still overpaid, but considering that he might be the only overpaid player on the team, then that is not so bad. Remember, Jayson, Jaylen, and RWIII will all likely be better, as will whatever kids we still have. I guess to summarize my feelings on Kemba - yes, Danny might have over-rated him, but now I think everyone else is under-rating him. Thus, I hope Danny doesn't give up talent or take an equally over-paid player just to get out of Kemba's contract. We will need our future picks to fill out the roster after paying JT, JB, and whomever the 3rd wheel is. If Brad can get good value for Kemba, great. If not, let him play and hopefully recuperate his value and trade him later. But don't trade one albatross for another.

For coaching, I can see Brad opting for a players coach, but only if it is someone on the same page philosophically, i.e. someone into analytics or someone willing to defer to Brad on those matters.

I don't know what the Celtics need long term. Most here want a center and/or pg. If you look at all the championship teams over the last decade-plus, none had dominating players at either position. Golden State had Curry, but he contributed more as a scorer than a "floor general". I think it is more subtle, and that balance is the key. We have scorers, and some good defensive players. We need more playmaking to replace GH, and - well, I don't know....that's why I post on fan boards rather than run a team. But I just have a feeling we may be better next year than everyone expects.

Rock

I did not mean to sound overly pessimistic.  I was basically just reminding fans that some of the structural issues with the roster cannot be fixed overnight.

We both agree that there is only one bad contract on the team.  However that one bad contract may prevent roster retention (EF) or roster improvements (FA signings) It only really takes one bad contract to impact so many other roster decisions.

The owners will pay the tax penalty but not until they see that this team is more complete to compete.  Danny already told the world that the team was not good enough to win.  

Walker, when available,  definitely filled the role as a 3rd or 4th scoring option but that is just not what this team really needs from him.  They need a floor general to run the offense.  Kemba has been a dynamic scorer his entire career. Until he got here he was the #1 scoring option.  But he has never been a pass first PG and that is what you really need to compliment two high end scorers like Jayson and Jaylen.

I do hope that his knee issue will not be a situation that has to be managed again next season but the Celtics have been dealing with this issue since March, 2020.   An efficient scoring Kemba is better than no Kemba. Nevertheless I am completely convinced that the Celtics want to move him.

All of the teams that won titles over the past 10 years had floor generals.  Not all of them were PG.  The Celtics do not have a floor general.  They have not had a player that could fill that vital role since Danny traded Rondo.  

I expect the Celtics to be a better team next year than they were this year, barring a ton of injuries, because our two top guys have not hit their ceiling and a couple of young guys will be more experienced.  Plus a change at coach should have a positive impact on players.  Even if that happens, other teams will also improve in the East so we will not jump to the top.  We still have several roster improvements to make.  I am looking at 2 years before the Celtics are back in  the thick of things.

dboss wrote:Rock


All of the teams that won titles over the past 10 years had floor generals.  Not all of them were PG.  The Celtics do not have a floor general.  They have not had a player that could fill that vital role since Danny traded Rondo.  
.

Yeah, I agree with that - I assumed floor general meant point guard. We do not have a floor general in the sense you mean it.

Shamrock1000 wrote:

dboss wrote:Rock


All of the teams that won titles over the past 10 years had floor generals.  Not all of them were PG.  The Celtics do not have a floor general.  They have not had a player that could fill that vital role since Danny traded Rondo.  
.

Yeah, I agree with that - I assumed floor general meant point guard. We do not have a floor general in the sense you mean it.

Rock

Traditionally the PG was usually the floor general but things have flipped upside down. Many elite scoring PG are not great floor generals but there are exceptions like Luka, Paul and even Trey Young.  In the past 10 years you had guys like Green in GSW and of course Lebron James that had the offense run through them and they make decisions on where the ball was going.  I should have been more specific.  

So Jayson and Jaylen have both improved as passers and guys that can run plays for their teammates but they are a long way from being guys that play the role of a traditional PG.  

When I think of what worked in the past Bird, McHale and Parish had
DJ and our more recent big 3 had Rondo.  Bird was a good passer but it was DJ that ran the show.  

I have watched this team closely and they have a few too many offensive flaws.  We need the type of guard that can set the pace, run the break, execute a full court pass and hit a guy in full stride.  We need the type of floor general that knows the strength and weaknesses of every player.  Where they are most productive on the court. Passing to a guy set up in the right corner for a 3 is a great option when you know that guy makes 40% of those shots but passing to, for example TT, when he is 18 feet from the basket with the shot clock running down is not a good option.  

Kemba Walker runs the point as though his playmaking responsibilities are ancillary to his primary goal as a scorer. He just does not look comfortable runnings plays for his teammates although he has been very effective running pick and pop plays but not as proficient running PNR plays where he has to hit the roller over the top with a pass. 

When you have two players like the Jays who are both tremendous shot makers and you have a center that makes 70% of his shots, how do you average less then 5 assists per game.  Not all of this is on Kemba.  A good part of this lands in the lap of Brad who seems to prefer PG by committee.  I guess that would work if you had a team with a collection of above average ball handlers and passers and decision makers. We do not have that.  The best passer on this team may very well be Robert Williams.

If Boston hires Chauncey or a Sam Cassell or some other former NBA player who was a PG the offense is going to run differently.  We will see a lot of the same plays but with a different perspective.

Dboss - yes, I absolutely see your point. The Celtics don't have the type of floor general/decision maker that you are thinking of. JT and JB are improving, but they will never likely get there - its just not their nature. While players can and do improve as playmakers, it sounds like what you envision is a leader/innate decision-maker. Someone like that could really get our offense going. Despite my appreciation of analytics, I was never a fan of Brad's offense - hopefully, as you say, a new coach might help.