What's the endgame for Brad Stevens and Celtics?

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What's the endgame for Brad Stevens and Celtics?


1H AGO

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER


The Boston Celtics still have a couple avenues to making some offseason ripples but, after sitting out Day 1 of a frenetic free-agent period and watching Evan Fournier sign with the New York Knicks, it appears the green are banking heavy on flexibility with hopes of chasing a bigger prize down the road.

New president of basketball operations Brad Stevens is walking a bit of a tightrope here. The Celtics have a developing road map to adding an impact talent -- either via trade, or by clearing potential maximum cap space as early as the summer of 2022. But both paths have pain points. Chief among them: Barring some crafty maneuvering, it feels like the Celtics will enter the 2021-22 season as something less than a surefire contender.

If the Celtics elect to simply tinker on the margins, then they are banking heavily on the development of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to keep the team afloat.

Maybe that further accelerates their development into star talents, but it also leaves open the potential that Boston is punting a bit on one of the few guaranteed years with that Tatum/Brown core. By not being a true banner threat, and with no guarantees on when exactly impact help might arrive, there is always the chance that the Jays start pondering their own futures.

To be fair, Stevens inherited a bit of a shoelace knot here and there are no scissors to accelerate the detangling. Boston’s draft pick treasure chest, once overflowing, is largely bare beyond the team’s own future first-rounders. Stevens started the process of overhauling the pieces around the Jays by trading Kemba Walker to Oklahoma City, but that cost a first-round pick.

The Celtics will eventually complete a deal that sends out Tristan Thompson after one forgettable season, but it won’t cost a pick to get off his money. That deal might even expand in the coming days to deliver additional goods. Boston can absorb the known incoming pieces -- Kris Dunn and Bruno Fernando -- into available trade exceptions and generate a modest TPE for the future. Or Boston could try to take on expiring salary from a cap-clogged team with hopes of gaining future draft assets.


There is also the possibility that Boston could land a helpful player with a salary somewhere in the $9.7-$15 million range, but if the ultimate goal here is flexibility, then Boston would be limited to taking on only expiring deals.

In sitting out the Fournier sweepstakes -- he signed a four-year, $78 million pact with the Knicks that reportedly includes a fourth-year team option -- the Celtics could flirt with the idea of using the full value of the midlevel exception to hunt what remains of the free-agent crop. Again, that seems unlikely if flexibility is preferred. The team wouldn't want to hard cap itself and hinder potential pursuit of an impact talent, so it’s more likely to use the $5.9 million taxpayer midlevel.

The big unanswered question is this: Do the Celtics have someone in mind whom they yearn to put alongside Tatum and Brown? The natural inclination has been to ponder Bradley Beal’s future, especially given his relationship with St. Louis buddy Tatum. But Stevens and the Celtics like to operate below the radar and could also have a different target in mind.

Or might Boston simply be staying ready for whoever is available next? Maybe the team reasoned that it’s better to be prepared for the next James Harden, rather than settle for what’s available in an underwhelming free-agent class.

That’s a prudent path, though not without its own risk. How long can you wait for the next piece given how quickly things tend to change in the NBA? You wait too long and Tatum is wondering if he and Beal should team up elsewhere, or Brown is one year closer to a deal that ends after the 2023-24 season.

Maintaining flexibility also adds a layer of complication to upcoming decisions. The Celtics have the ability to extend both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams this summer. If Smart is truly part of the core and desires the security of an extension, it makes sense to strike before he reaches free agency. He might still be a tradable asset if the fit isn’t perfect with him as your top point guard option. But signing him does add a possible hurdle to cap gymnastics.

Then there’s Williams. If he stays healthy and has even a modest 2021-22 season, teams could be lining up to pay him big money next summer. The Celtics could splurge a bit now and try to lock him up at a decent number — maybe something in the low teens as a starting salary. The obvious risk there is both health and potentially clogging up the cap if Boston needs every penny to pursue a veteran star.

But extending Williams could also make a pursuit easier if it comes via the trade route. With Smart and/or Williams on friendly deals, bundling players as part of a salary match becomes easier, at least if the disgruntled star’s team wanted one in return. Pair Smart or Williams with Al Horford’s partially guaranteed final year, and a ransom of future picks, and maybe you’re in the mix for an impact talent. Developing an intriguing young player like Aaron Nesmith or Romeo Langford would be even more helpful.

The Celtics have only $72 million in guaranteed salary on the books for the 2022-23 season. That number will sink to $57.5 million if Boston moves off Horford’s final year before next summer. It’ll bump up a bit if Boston picks up rookie-scale options on players like Nesmith, Payton Pritchard, and Langford but there will be ample room to pursue a star talent. Williams’ potential cap hold -- if not extended -- would be the only other bloat on the cap sheet.


Here's a look at the Celtics' potential contract situation entering the 2022 offseason.


Which is why any move that Boston makes in free agency will almost certainly be for expiring deals, or pacts with second-year options, with the goal of maintaining flexibility.

If Tatum and Brown take another pronounced step forward next season, it will be fair to look back and wonder if the Celtics should have been more willing to pay to keep Fournier. The risk is that, if he underperformed early in the deal, trading off his long-term money could have really complicated the path to cap space. The team appears to be trying to limit all dice rolls.

Then again, banking on flexibility is a dice roll of its own.

Fans have to hope that Stevens and Co. are operating with a grand plan. Maybe they know Beal is going to be available down the road. Maybe they know that Beal is the key to ensuring Tatum’s future here long term and are on board with any pursuit that doesn’t involve relinquishing Brown.

But it’s hard for fans here to buy into patience. The Celtics made concessions last year to dodge the tax to ease future repeater penalties and being thrifty contributed to a first-round exit. (So too did COVID and a weird pandemic season.)

Celtics fans used to pledge that "In Danny We Trust,” and he delivered the Tatum/Brown core. Some missteps along the way to being a legitimate title contender forced him to pass the baton to Stevens.

With a hazy path forward, are fans ready to trust Stevens and a long-range plan?


Bob



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Barring some changes, and I agree with GYSO that Brad's not done yet, we are really counting on young'uns Langford, Nesmith and Pritchard to take big steps up.  At this time none of them have the kind of juice to punch above their weight, trade-wise speaking.  Nobody is going to pay a premium for them...yet.  That's why this coming season is so important.  If Brad can land a big fish next year and these three have nice step ups this year, we could be very close to competing at the highest levels, either because they anchor a solid, productive bench or because they are traded for a big-time player because the receiving team sees their potential being realized.

Romeo is dubious.  He is a very good defender, especially given his relative lack of experience, but his shot and his injury history makes him unreliable.  I'm not confident in his shot but if he stays healthy he is a very good and versatile defender (6'4", 6'11" wingspan).  The lightbulb turned on a bit for Nesmith in the 2nd half of last year and he's only going to get better from here because the weakest part of his game last year was his shooting and his shooting is the strongest part of his game overall.  He won't have rookie jitters this year.  Pritchard showed us all something, we all agree on that, and I think he's going to be even more valuable this year because of his work ethic and because of his long-standing relationships with head coach Ime Ukoka and with assistant coach (and 13 year NBA back court player) Damon Stoudemire (hey, Carsen!  Mighty Mouse is 5'10" too, so that's not an excuse).  He's already a bit of a fanatic regarding working out.  Think he won't work twice as hard to impress two men he grew up knowing and respecting?  Think he'd ever want to let them down?


Bob


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1) Credit dboss where I first heard of the 2022 cap space strategy. The talking heads must be reading these forums because almost immediately Forsburg was writing about it.

2) The only flaw in the "Run with the yung'uns" plan is that we are banking on them panning out. At this point, I have good hopes of that. But what do you do with Al? Also, if they pan out doesn't it mean that the Celts have to move on from Smart? From Josh Richardson? How will this part play out?

3) There has been no movement on some fronts: Sixers and Simmons trade, Blazers needing to make some moves now that Melo has also ditched them and DeRozen and Spurs. The Warriors have secured Curry. So they also have the need & security to make some moves. Will the Celts get in the middle of that?

I am perfectly fine with the roster that we have right now. The lack of free-agent signing points to a 2022 cap space strategy. That makes me uncomfortable as that is such a hit or miss. Perhaps a mid-season trade is on the horizon?

In the mean time, I am preparing a 4th best in the East type of season. We will be in the pack with Sixers, Hawks and Hornets.

So the Bulls sign DeRozen. A very curious and interesting roster. Ball, LaVine, DeRozen and possibly Markkanen with Vooch. I will be watching to see how this one plays out.

The Lakers are starting to remind me of the 2003-04 Lakers with Gary Payton, Mail Man, Shaq, Kobe, Horace Grant and such.

Still waiting for Brad to complete the TT transaction. The trade could be expanded.

Would not mind seeing a Joe Ingles on the roster.

Boston has to figure out how good some of the young guys can become. This year offers a chance for AN and PP to play more minutes. Those two pretty much have to score more points. KW and EF are gone so that is a lot of points to make up.

I am optimistic but still a bit pissed off because the Celtics allowed themselves to be is a situation where they have to wait!

What is happening with the Tristan Thompson deal, and is his name Tristan or Tristian as I've seen it written in places?

The end game is always the same; hang a banner.

The finish line has been moved farther back and we're going to have to be patient while we see if an intelligent but untested new GM can build a roster that will contend.

We should know if we're heading in the right direction within a couple of seasons.

Well at least we didn’t sign any midget pg that can’t defend. Danny went all in thinking Kemba was the piece to get us over the top, for half a season it worked….gotta learn from mistakes

Eventually we’re going to have to upgrade the 5 position as Horford is 35. Let’s see what RWill can give us, literally a make or break year for him…??? Is he a real starting center in this league or a 12-15 minute minute restricted player that jumps well for a few stretches?

cowens/oldschool wrote:Well at least we didn’t sign any midget pg that can’t defend. Danny went all in thinking Kemba was the piece to get us over the top, for half a season it worked….gotta learn from mistakes

Eventually we’re going to have to upgrade the 5 position as Horford is 35. Let’s see what RWill can give us, literally a make or break year for him…??? Is he a real starting center in this league or a 12-15 minute minute restricted player that jumps well for a few stretches?

From what I have observed RW is a 25-27 MPG player.  Last season he average almost 20 MPG.  Injuries have slowed his development.  He played in 52 of 72 regular season games.  With him, there remains a proceed with caution sign because you never know when the road will get washed out.  I very much like the talent that he brings to the table and my singular best hope for him is to be available and not go through a year where he gets nicked up.

He plays with tremendous level of energy and needs to continue to work on his stamina and strength.  Rob is more than capable of being a consistent double digit scorer.  His 72% FG% means that his shot attempts are like money in the bank.  Get this kid 8-10 shots per game and I guarantee he will be a 10-14 PPG scorer for us.  

Al Horford is a short timer and a consolation prize for dumping Kemba Walker.  I agree with Cowens that we will be needing to add another big man.  I do not think we have to do that this season.  I wish that we could have retained Moses Brown.  You know the more I look at the Josh Richardson transaction the more I realize that it cannot stand by itself.  

Sometimes you have to follow the sequence of things.

The Celtics had 3 main issues to address.  First priority was to move KW and reduce the amount of money that they had to pay out.  They accomplished that.  Next they had to find another ball handler.   Third they had to decide on resigning EF and/or finding a replacement.  So far priorities #2 and 3 have not been achieved.  The reason is staring us right in the face.

I knew damn well the Celtics were not going to reup with Fournier because he is not the type of luxury that they can afford.  

So Boston needed to move TT as well which makes sense to everybody but thy avoid a direct trade with the Kings where they could acquire Delon Wright.  Delon is a 10 PPG scorer, solid rebounder and good ball handler an assist guy.    The Celtics get the often inured Dunn and project Bruno Fernando.  The Celtics also get a 2023 2nd round pick and the save around $3 million in salary.  Dunn's future to remain on the roster is in doubt.

The Celtics use the remaining GH TPE to sign Richardson (expiring contract) but they also give up a promising legit 7 foot center Moses Brown.  

There has to be another shoe to drop or Boston has once again failed miserably with their decision making.  Why you ask.

The Celtics should have just Traded TT to the Kings for Wright.  Wright is a better fit than Richardson.  Does more things and is a better shooter.  He will make $9 million this year and $8.5 next.  His trade value looks better than Josh or Dunn.

They could have kept Moses Brown and used the the smaller MLE around $6 million to sign a BU PG and probably sign Madar.  Ish Smith by the way signed for $4.5 million, a bargain.  The Celtics could have accomplish this and stayed under the luxury Tax.   T

What is not factored in here are three  2nd round picks that the Celtics got, 1 from the Hawk and 2 from Dallas.

I sure hope that other shoe drops loud enough to make some noise.  Otherwise, I see a lot of fiddling and diddling but the Celtics have done very little to improve this roster.  

The building consensus is that Boston will go after a 3rd star and the moves they are making are designed to create CAP space.  Beal's name keeps popping up like some annoying ransomware on my computer.

+1 on everything

Glad someone agrees with me on Moses Brown since Heckler went soft

Dboss, I fully agree with you but expect the Celtics to be looking at a 2022-23 timetable rather than this season to achieve their goal of creating a championship level team. Nevertheless, why they didn't trade TT for Wright and keep Moses baffles me too.

worcester wrote:Dboss, I fully agree with you but expect the Celtics to be looking at a 2022-23 timetable rather  than this season to achieve their goal of creating a championship level team. Nevertheless, why they didn't trade TT for Wright and keep Moses baffles me too.

Worcester

Well it is nice to know that I am at least heading in the right direction.

I have referred to this upcoming season as a bridge year and the timetable you reference would be the  other end of that bridge.