2021-2022 Boston Celtics Roster and Salary Tax Evolution

Now that the Tristan Thompson trade is complete, we can finally see how some of the pieces fit.  As time goes on and other roster moves are made, I will try to make this thread a place to discuss each transaction and how it affects our salary cap situation.  Now that Summer League is upon us, we may have a small break where our focus is on that for a week or so.  After that, the Celtics brass will have a better look as to how the young guys fit into the rotation.

Here's a list of some of the things that will get settled over time:

Do either Yam Madar or Juhann Begarin begin their NBA careers do they wait?

Do we keep Kris Dunn or is he part of a future transaction?

How does Bruno Fernando fit in with our current crop of bigs?  Does he become part of a trade in a couple of months?

Do we sign Dennis Schroder?  How do we do that, with the full Non-Taxpayer MLE ($9.5M) or with the smaller Taxpayer version?

There are more changes to come before the 2021-2022 season begins.  Let's take each in turn and discuss how it affects our salary tax situation going forward.  Please let this become a forward-looking thread and leave the events of the past in the past.

Thank you and . . .


Go Celtics!!!




Celtics roster reset and cap/tax picture

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/8/8/22615397/boston-celtics-roster-reset-and-cap-tax-picture

Brad Stevens’ first set of deals gave Boston some needed flexibility

By Keith P Smith  Aug 8, 2021, 8:39am EDT

Over the last week and a half, the Boston Celtics 2021-22 roster picture has come into focus. The process started in mid-June when new President of Basketball Operations traded Kemba Walker and the 16th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Al Horford and Moses Brown.

Stevens then traded Brown to the Dallas Mavericks for Josh Richardson. This move used up the majority of the remaining $11 million of the Gordon Hayward trade exception.

“Trader” Brad then made his third swap of the offseason by sending Tristan Thompson to the Sacramento Kings as part of a three-team deal with the Atlanta Hawks. Boston acquired Kris Dunn, Bruno Fernando and a 2023 second round pick (from the Portland Trail Blazers via Atlanta) in the trade. The Hawks got Delon Wright from the Kings.

Boston will soon complete the signing of Enes Kanter to what is reportedly a veteran minimum contract. That signing will take the Celtics to 15 players on standard contracts (14 fully guaranteed, 1 non-guaranteed). Boston will also reportedly sign Sam Hauser, which will fill one of the team’s two open Two-Way spots.

A simplistic way to look at “players in vs players out” is:

· Al Horford – Tristan Thompson

· Josh Richardson – Evan Fournier

· Kris Dunn – Kemba Walker

· Enes Kanter – Luke Kornet

· Bruno Fernando – Semi Ojeleye

After completing the Kanter and Hauser signings, the Celtics will likely fill out the roster (teams are allowed to carry up to 20 players in the offseason) with some camp signings. The team may see who pops in Summer League and/or camp before deciding on how to fill the open Two-Way spot.

On its face, these moves seem to be an upgrade in the frontcourt. Horford is better, and a better a fit, than Thompson, as is Kanter over Kornet. The wing and backcourt are both downgrades, as Fournier and Walker are better than both Richardson and Dunn. Fernando for Ojeleye is essentially a wash of end-of-the-bench players.

Yet, as things rarely are, it’s not quite that simple. As mentioned above, this series of moves was made to give Boston flexibility both this upcoming season and for future seasons. Was that accomplished? Let’s take a look.

The Celtics were facing a large tax bill for 2021-22, had they kept Walker and re-signed Fournier. Initially, it looked as if the Walker for Horford swap had given the Celtics the necessary wiggle room to re-sign Fournier without going too deep into the luxury tax. Add the Thompson for Dunn/Fernando trade and it looked like Boston might be able to re-sign Fournier and keep the looming tax bill even lower.

However, it seems the Celtics had good intel that Fournier had a bigger and longer offer than they were willing to entertain. Boston also had an expiring TPE from the Hayward sign-and-trade in 2020. Brad Stevens chose to put that to use by acquiring Richardson. In a flash, all of that tax flexibility for 2021-22 was gone.

Furthermore, once Kanter is signed, the Celtics will be slightly over the luxury tax line by just over $700,000.

Now, it’s fair to point out that Boston tried to move Dunn or Fernando by expanding the deal with the Hawks and Kings. It’s still possible that either, or both, could be moved along in an additional trade. If the Celtics were able to do this without taking back additional salary, or if they waived Jabari Parker from his non-guaranteed contract, they’d dip back under the tax line.

What’s the importance of, and urgency to, getting back under the tax? It fees up the Celtics to do a few things.

As it stands right now, Boston cannot use the entirety of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception of $9.5 million. That would hard cap the team and using the full amount would take them over the tax apron/hard cap. That limits the Celtics to using the Taxpayer MLE of $5.9 million. That’s still a good chunk of spending power this late in free agency, but not enough to make an overly impactful move.

Why might the Celtics want to free themselves up to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE of $9.5 million? The team is rumored to be considering adding veteran point guard Dennis Schroder. Schroder’s free agency options have all but dried up both salary and roster-spot wise. There are very few teams who have a starting or primary backup point guard spot available, and no team (outside of rebuilding Oklahoma City) has cap space available.

If Boston can get to a point where they can offer Schroder the full MLE, that puts them in the running to land the mercurial lead guard. It’s not the long-term, $20+ million per season deal that Schroder wanted, but it’s likely more money than anyone else is offering. More importantly: there is a role to play big minutes on a playoff team.

It’s fair to point out that clearing space to sign Schroder would likely push Boston right back into the tax. And that seems to be a barrier of sorts at the moment. While Celtics ownership has consistently said they’ll pay the tax for a championship contender, this roster seems to be shy of that at the moment. It’s a “bridge” year of sorts for Boston. There’s too much talent to bottom out, especially led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. But there’s not quite enough to break into the Finals contender tier either.

That begs the question: Why go into the tax for Schroder or anyone else? There are a few ways to look at that. Assuming Boston can clear the space to use the full MLE, they won’t be taking on a massive tax bill. They’d likely only be somewhere between $5-$7 million into the tax.

It’s important to note here that the luxury tax hit is calculated at the end of the season. So, the Celtics would have up until the trade deadline in mid-February to clear salary and dip back under the tax, if necessary. That small of an amount to shed puts them in range to make that happen.

The next fair question: Should the tax in 2021-22 even be a concern? It depends on where you fall and if you’re the one signing the checks. Yes, the luxury tax, and the harsher penalties for being a tax repeater, can cause roster-building issues. But those are down-the-line things to worry about. It’s fair to keep the repeater tax in mind, but at this point, it’s unlikely to come into play. So, for now, it’s about ownership being willing to spend a little more to make the team at least a little better for this upcoming season.

And that’s where we come full circle. Is the team set up better for 2021-22 than their disappointing 2020-21 season? That’s probably questionable. There’s still somewhat of a hole at point guard. Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard both look fine there, but some veteran help would be welcomed. Thus, the rumored Schroder interest.

On the wing, the team is hoping for Richardson to bounce back after disappointing seasons in Philadelphia and Dallas the last two years. Better health for Dunn would add a defensive element to the wing rotation, as well. And, of course, internal development of former lottery picks Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith would go a long way towards easing concerns about wing depth.

Will Dunn or Richardson contribute at playoff-caliber levels? Does Horford have enough left in the tank to play a big role? Can Robert Williams stay healthy and play major minutes? Those are all unknowns.

In the end, if Tatum uses the Olympics and missing All-NBA (and a considerable amount of money) as a launchpad to a huge season, and Brown builds on his All-Star season, Boston doesn’t need a positive answer to all of their questions. And, hopefully, better health than last season’s nightmare of illnesses and injuries, will go a long way towards a better year too.

In a future article, we’ll examine the long-term impacts of Brad Stevens’ first set of deals. We’ll look at how things are set up for the Celtics to make a major splash in the 2022 offseason, and how extensions for Marcus Smart or Robert Williams could impact those plans.

Thanks for starting this thread, GYSO, I think it's a good one, especially going forward as situations and the roster evolves.

I thought this was a pretty good article. It explains how and why.


Bob


.

I notice nobody is really mentioning Dunn in the PG conversations. He's listed as a PG/SG at 6'3". And his defensive skills are very good. Are we assuming his injuries have left him too broken to count on? If so, how tradeable is he?

atcross wrote:I notice nobody is really mentioning Dunn in the PG conversations. He's listed as a PG/SG at 6'3". And his defensive skills are very good. Are we assuming his injuries have left him too broken to count on? If so, how tradeable is he?

Scuttlebutt was that Dunn is here and gone in order to reduce salary and get further below the luxury tax limit. I see some softening of that stance as of late, with Dunn being considered as a low-cost alternative to Dennis Schroder.

If he is healthy, that gives another alternative for Brad and Company to consider in the team building process.

You never know how certain guys will fit with your team.

Richardson replaced EV so we gave up a shooter for a non-shooter but improved defensively.  Someone else will need to step up and fill the scoring void at the wing position.

Now that the trade to get Dunn has been finalized, it remains a really big question mark.  One concern is his ability to actually play.   If he can stay on the court our depth at PG is better but we still have not secured a long term Floor general.  Schroder makes no sense unless you move Dunn and unless you are going to get more then a year out of him.(DS) What is it that we are playing for this year?  Over-Pay to be mildly competitive this year or really kick the can down the road into next season.  I do not expect a Schroder  signing if more than a year is in play and I do not understand why the Celtics would flirt with the tax this year after all that they have done not to flirt with it.  Just say no.

We are about to see our B2B 2nd rounders play.  If all goes well I expect Yam to be with the team and Bergarin to marinate in France for another season.

The center situation at least provides some depth.  The Kanter signing is a kick the can move that should provides the team with a big physical center when needed.  Bruno is a project.  However his physical profile is not lacking.  He is more of a center than a PF.  I think it is safe to say TBD when it comes to him.  To be determined.

Overall, I do no see these outside moves as real roster improving.  If Boston had kept Moses our long term needs at center would be more favorable.

Brad and coach Udoka must be putting a lot of faith in the J's continuing to get better but mostly that a few young guys will experience noticeable YOY improvement.  If that becomes a reality it will certainly alter what the Celtics do next year.

Just not sure if the entire roster is set.  What we do know is that all the newbies are kick the can moves.  

One final note, Sam Hauser could be our version of Kyle Korver.

CORRECTION BELOW  Delon Wright will be an UFA after this season

The Celtics are set to stay under the luxury tax.  

The logical next move will be to cut Parker but they still have time to do that.

[2021 non-guaranteed, $100k guaranteed 7/31/21 8/24/21, $1,141,517 guaranteed Opening Night]

I expect them to offer Yam Madar a non-guaranteed 3 year deal with team options in years 2 and 3.

It would be great if Boston can find a home for Carsen Edwards.  He just needs a new opportunity somewhere.  maybe Brad keeps this last year of his contract or maybe he gets traded.  Any additional tweaks will be minor as I do not think Brad has a thick wad of cash to play with.

This may be a bit premature because we really do not know how the new pieces made via trade and FA will fit but I am giving out a C grade for roster improvement and an A+ for financial management.

The C grade for roster improvement is related to the team this year.  Even if the plan is to kick the can down the road and free up CAP space for the next 'star' the roster could have been better with a slightly different configuration.

The trade with Dallas is a curious one.  We traded Moses Brown for Josh and used the remainder of the GH TPE.  Josh helps on the defensive side of the ball but his declining level of play over the past two season makes him a questionable addition.  Plus he is on an expiring contract.  The problem is that we parted with a legit 7 foot center who has apparent upside and was on a really cheap contract for a one in done deal.

The TT trade that yielded Kris Dunn and Bruno Fernando is another curious move.  A direct trade with the Kings could have yielded Delon Wright and essentially filled two needs in one player.  Another ball handler and wing scorer.  The only downside is the 2nd year of his contract but that was still only around $9 million for a quality player that has trade value.

The Celtics were obviously less enthralled with getting Bruno as they then turned around and added the egg shell running Kanter for a year.  Moving Moses Brown cannot be overlooked.

According to reports the Celtics managed to create another sizeable TPE and also obtained 3 2nd round draft picks (1 from the Hawks and 2 from the Mavericks)

keep in my the C grade does not contemplate anything other than the roster for this upcoming campaign.

I'll put on my make believe GM hat and share with you what other options could have been considered.

1.  You make a trade directly with the Kings sending TT there for Delon Wright.  

2.  Use a portion of the MLE to sign Ish Smith as a BU point guard and bench scorer.  He signed a two year deal with the Hornets with only the first year guaranteed ($4.5 million)

3. Sign a PF using the vet minimum for a guy like Taj Gibson or someone else.

In sum, give me Delon Wright, Ish Smith and Moses Brown over Josh Richardson, Kris Dunn and Enes Kanter.  Boston would be able to stay below the dreaded tax line and still maintain flexibility next season except for the one year remaining on Delon's contract

dboss,

The pattern of ALL transactions so far this summer is to avoid any contracts that carry past this season.

Moses Brown's (albeit cheap) contract carries out past one season, so he is gone.  Kanter is on a one-year guaranteed contract, so he is the choice.  Bruno is expiring as well.

Delon Wright's contract carries out past one season, he is not wanted.  It doesn't matter if he is a better player than Richardson.  Richardson is expiring, so he is the choice.

[Delon is expiring, as you pointed out. I don't know why they went with Richardson over Wright. But they did.]

Kris Dunn is expiring as well.  He may stay or he may be passed on to further reduce team salary.

Dennis Schroder's signing is on hold, he is waiting for another offer, any other offer, but there aren't many teams with cap space.  What a bone head to put himself in this situation.  Who is his agent, does he carry any blame for turning down the Laker offer?

You are giving the offseason team-building a poor grade (IMO, premature, but whatever floats your boat) because you think we could have gotten better players with these trades.  You may need to get off that track, because your goals do not align with those of team management.

The Celtics are doing it.  They are only targeting expiring deals and are dumping players whose contracts do not align with that goal.  More players will most likely be traded as the season goes on.

It has less to do with this season's tax line, except they will most likely want to avoid the tax.  It is more that they want as much cap space flexibility for next summer.

Why Richardson over Wright?

Maybe Richardson's higher salary ($11,615,328 vs. $8,526,316) gives us a bigger contract to trade at the trading deadline this season.

If Wright is clearly a better player than Richardson, this may account for that decision.

Maybe the best path for Celtics fans is to not fall in love with any of these players, other than the 2 Js.

gyso wrote:dboss,

The pattern of ALL transactions so far this summer is to avoid any contracts that carry past this season.

Moses Brown's (albeit cheap) contract carries out past one season, so he is gone.  Kanter is on a one-year guaranteed contract, so he is the choice.  Bruno is expiring as well.

Delon Wright's contract carries out past one season, he is not wanted.  It doesn't matter if he is a better player than Richardson.  Richardson is expiring, so he is the choice.

[Delon is expiring, as you pointed out.  I don't know why they went with Richardson over Wright.  But they did.]

Kris Dunn is expiring as well.  He may stay or he may be passed on to further reduce team salary.

Dennis Schroder's signing is on hold, he is waiting for another offer, any other offer, but there aren't many teams with cap space.  What a bone head to put himself in this situation.  Who is his agent, does he carry any blame for turning down the Laker offer?

You are giving the offseason team-building a poor grade (IMO, premature, but whatever floats your boat) because you think we could have gotten better players with these trades.  You may need to get off that track, because your goals do not align with those of team management.

The Celtics are doing it.  They are only targeting expiring deals and are dumping players whose contracts do not align with that goal.  More players will most likely be traded as the season goes on.

It has less to do with this season's tax line, except they will most likely want to avoid the tax.  It is more that they want as much cap space flexibility for next summer.

gyso   Delon Wright's contract is only for one year as is that of Ish Smith.  So that leaves a very small and non guaranteed  QO amount on Moses Brown.  

Therefore, if the goal is to dump salary, the players that I listed accomplish that as well.  What it comes down to is looking at team needs and how specific players match those needs even if they are just for one year.  The guys we got are not better than the ones I mentioned.

With respect to the C grade I said it was premature and now you say it is premature.  See we got a match! But you say I gave it a poor grade but to me a C is an average grade.  D would be a poor grade.

So you would rather have Kris Dunn at $5 million rather than Ish Smith at $4.5 million?

We agree on Wright over Richardson ( Josh Richardson at $10.5 million instead Delon Wright at $9.35 million.)  You want Kanter at $1.7 million and Fernandez for $1,78 million instead of Moses Brown at $1.7 million.  The reason why they may have went with the Mavs could be related to the 2nd rounders they apparently acquired.  

IMO, I am looking at both the salary issue and also roster improvement this year.  I see no good reason why the Celtics should settle for another .500 record.  

As far as the tax line is concerned, I would think that you would have finally figured that out after what happened with the Fournier FA  situation.  You pretty much guaranteed that they would resign him and even suggested that I was being irrational for stating that Boston is looking to avoid the tax this season and that would determine if they kept him.

The Celtics are very interested in CAP flexibility and it may not be because they want a guy like Beal.  Their activity may be focused on the type of flexibility that allows them to resign Marcus and Rob and not go hunting for that so-called 3rd star.

Just because my take differs with the team management that does not make me wrong.  The reason why the Celtics find themselves in the current situation is because of the team management.  

Anyways I think this is an interesting thread and I respect everyone's opinions and I hope that they respect mine as well.

I still think not signing Fournier was a mistake.  His contract amount was in the predicted range, so his contract would have been totally tradeable at the trading deadline.  Nice big fat tradeable contract.  I consider that to be Brad's first mistake.  

I don't want any one specific player over another, I was just listing who the Celtics have gone with so far.  I don't know why they picked one player over the other.  Vet vs. youth, fit vs. best player, healthy vs. nursing an injury, defense vs. offense, we may never know for sure.

Carry on!

gyso wrote:I still think not signing Fournier was a mistake.  His contract amount was in the predicted range, so his contract would have been totally tradeable at the trading deadline.  Nice big fat tradeable contract.  I consider that to be Brad's first mistake.  

I don't want any one specific player over another, I was just listing who the Celtics have gone with so far.  I don't know why they picked one player over the other.  Vet vs. youth, fit vs. best player, healthy vs. nursing an injury, defense vs. offense, we may never know for sure.

Carry on!

gyso

You still do not get it do you?  

Brad had no control over resigning EF and entering the tax zone.  He did not make a mistake.  The owners are not willing to pay a tax unless the team is poised to contend.  That is what they have said all alone.  

Signing EF and then being able to trade him was a option.   But one that would require a viable trade partner which as you know is very uncertain.

I just think the owners are a bit gun shy because they have already been burnt on two recent contracts.  I do believe that they will be willing to spend more at the appropriate time which apparently has not arrived yet.

I have no idea about what the Celts management is targeting except that Brad seems to be prepping some ground work to be able to invest in chasing a championship. The way the contracts are lining up seems like a Miami Heat like blue print is being prepped. There will be anchor players and a lot of roster fluidity around that.