It's decision time for the Celtics and Marcus Smart

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/marcus-smart-celtics-toughest-nba-trade-deadline-decision



It's decision time for the Celtics and Marcus Smart



21H AGO

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER


On the day he became trade eligible, Marcus Smart offered a quiet but firm reminder of just how impactful he can be for the Boston Celtics.

Smart didn’t score any of Boston’s 128 points on Tuesday night, but his fingerprints were all over the team’s early domination of a 53-point triumph over the Sacramento Kings. Smart took only three shots Tuesday, put his focus on defense and cranking the pace, and keyed Boston’s first-quarter explosion with some nifty playmaking.

He finished plus-36 in plus/minus for the second straight game since returning from health and safety protocols and is now plus-177 for the season, the second best mark on the Celtics behind only Jayson Tatum (plus-212).

And yet Smart remains the most polarizing player on the Celtics' roster and surely the most intriguing player in advance of February’s trade deadline. After inking a four-year contract extension this summer Smart is now able to be moved, and his name will swirl maybe more than any other Boston player over the next two weeks.

The reality is that, barring the unforeseen, the Celtics are not trading Tatum, Jaylen Brown, or Robert Williams next month. While any and all moves must be considered given the team’s failure to meet lofty expectations, Celtics brass has been steadfast at even the lowest points that the most prudent path forward is finding the right pieces that complement the pillars of this team.


The unanswered question: Is Smart part of that core and is he the long-term answer as the team’s starting point guard?


Working in his favor: The Celtics’ four-man lineup featuring Tatum, Brown, Williams, and Smart has a net rating of plus-15.3 in 363 minutes together over 20 appearances this season. Among the 52 four-man lineups in the NBA with at least that much floor time, Boston’s quartet ranks fifth in the NBA (trailing only groups from Minnesota, Atlanta, Denver, and Utah).

The conversation around Smart might be easier if he was shooting the ball better. For the third straight season, Smart’s 3-point percentage has dipped below league average. It’s plummeted down to 30.3 percent on 4.7 attempts per game this season.

Smart’s shooting woes are not as much of an issue when the team is rolling like the last two outings. But given Boston’s desire to let Tatum and Brown facilitate the offense more, his shooting decline is surely an issue when teams force the ball out of the Jays' hands and Smart can’t make them pay.


The Celtics have done their due diligence exploring his trade value and there will likely be offers closer to the deadline that will force Stevens and his front office staff to ponder Smart’s future.
Chris Forsberg on Marcus Smart


The Celtics own an excellent plus-7.4 net rating in the 1,004 non-trash time possessions with Smart sharing the floor with the Jays, per Cleaning the Glass data. In 486 total minutes together, the Smart-Brown-Tatum trio have a meager offensive rating of 107.8, but it’s offset by an elite defensive rating of 101.1.

Among Boston’s top rotation players, only Williams (plus-16.3 in 1,020 non-trash time possessions per Cleaning the Glass) has a better overall net rating alongside the Jays on this year’s squad. For the sake of comparison, Tatum and Brown operating with Dennis Schroder has a plus-6.1 net rating in 672 possessions and while the offensive rating does tick up slightly, the defensive rating spikes nearly three points per 100 possessions, too.

Despite some struggles during the 2020-21 season, history suggests that the Smart-Tatum-Brown trio is capable of thriving. Last season showed that, even with a hindered Kemba Walker, that group was able to put up glitzy offensive numbers with the right personnel.

Al Horford’s shooting struggles, combined with Smart’s 3-point woes, certainly have hindered Boston’s offensive output, even though the preferred starting five continues to put up excellent overall numbers.


Marcus Smart Jayson Tatum Jaylen Brown Advanced Stats
NBC Sports Boston
Celtics' advanced numbers with Tatum, Brown and Smart on the court together


If the Celtics are convinced that they need something more than minor tweaks to the supporting cast to shake this team from its inconsistent ways, then the decision to proceed forward with Smart is more complicated.

The team’s inability to commit to developing young talent has left the Celtics thin on desirable trade assets in advance of February’s trade deadline. Their middling status gives limited value to their draft picks. All of which makes Smart the most valuable of their limited tradable assets.

If a contender seeking a defensive upgrade is willing to send Boston a first-round pick for Smart, the team has to at least consider what might come next. If the Celtics believe their next splurge might hone in on a playmaker, then collecting a draft asset that might aid that quest might take some of the sting out of moving Smart.

While Smart has his obvious flaws, he has shown a willingness this season to taper down his shot output. Nights like Tuesday provide a glimpse of maybe the best version of Smart, though he absolutely must improve his shooting to share the floor with Tatum and Brown as much as he does.

If Boston’s calling card under Ime Udoka is going to be defense, then there’s also an obvious value in Smart being part of this core. Smart shares the NBA lead in steals per game (2.0) with Dejounte Murray and Chris Paul. He’s in the top 10 in the league in deflections.

We don’t envy Brad Stevens and the decisions he might have to make on Smart. The Celtics have done their due diligence exploring his trade value and there will likely be offers closer to the deadline that will force Stevens and his front office staff to ponder Smart’s future.

One thing to consider, especially if the Celtics are able to surge a bit here: It doesn’t feel like there’s any move involving Smart that would improve the immediate trajectory of Boston’s season.

So, unless the Celtics are willing to clear out all their veteran, non-core pieces and embrace a heavy youth infusion -- something that seems unlikely -- then it’s probably better to simply ride out the season and figure out Smart’s future and the direction of the team over the summer when decisions are less limited and rushed.

Nights like Tuesday don’t make it any easier to decide just how the Celtics should proceed with Smart.


Bob
MY NOTE:  A heart transpant is only done with the replacement of a new heart.  If Brad trades Marcus don't just talk to me about the incoming player's stats, tell me about his heart.  We had the Js and Kyrie.  It didn't work because Kyrie was the star of the team, so Kyrie's heart ruled, and he has none.  In my opinion, we need a point guard who has the heart, strength and reputation necessary to demand the ball from the Js and tell them what to do.  Smart can do that because that's who he is and because he has been with the Js for years.  Adding another shooter, at the expense of Smart, without adding someone who can enforce the distribution of the ball, would be a mistake in my opinion.

The NBA trade deadline is February 10th, exactly 2 weeks from today.

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Although strategically it might make sense to say the two players that bring back the best return while starting a balanced core with Tatum and RWIII are Brown and Smart, I'm not sure Smart is going anywhere any faster than Brown is.

If the rumor mill is to believed, and it is not, players like McCollum keep getting mentioned as possible swap targets for Smart. If that type of player is the best we can do, why bother? Swap out one 2-guard playing point for another? No net gain.

You still need to produce a balanced squad on the floor at all times. Hield keeps getting mentioned in rumors for Smart. Fine. He's kind of pricey but would make sense because you get high volume shooting off the bench. No drop off when Tatum and Brown sit. That one still leaves us looking for a point guard, but would be reasonable given the need for a shooter to provide bench strength.

I'm still thinking Smart stays until summer, if not longer.

The team needs better balance with a point, a forward, and a shooter off the folding chairs. If the boys that write the checks are willing to go deep into the tax zone, then you still can talk about keeping Tatum, Brown, RWIII and Smart. If not, then it makes sense to shop Smart, and despite all the "oh no we wouldn't" whining and crying, you look at Brown next.

The Celtics only have 7 games remaining before the trade deadline.  Ff there was ever a time to go on a run it would be now.  

If they were to go 7-0 or 6-1 Boston may look at making a helpful move right now but nothing earth shattering.  With Schroder likely gone sooner or later I do not see them moving Smart.  This team wants to have their cake and eat it too.

The owners want to stay below the tax line unless the team is a legit contender but I do not see how all the ancillary pieces can be added now.  There would have to be a must do deal to see anything major happen.

My expectation is that the organization continues along the same path of reducing their tax liability and they will kick the can down the road into the off-season.

Right now there remains too many unknowns to do anything too drastic. Who is this team?

In sum I would venture to say that if the team does quite well in the next stretch of games look for them to move Schroeder for a low cost shooter like Holiday and if they remain stagnant look for them to move Schroeder for a 2nd round pick or two or a player that gets us under the tax line..

Marcus will be in a Celtics uniform on February 11th when we play Denver.

NYCelt wrote:Although strategically it might make sense to say the two players that bring back the best return while starting a balanced core with Tatum and RWIII are Brown and Smart, I'm not sure Smart is going anywhere any faster than Brown is.

If the rumor mill is to believed, and it is not, players like McCollum keep getting mentioned as possible swap targets for Smart. If that type of player is the best we can do, why bother? Swap out one 2-guard playing point for another? No net gain.

You still need to produce a balanced squad on the floor at all times. Hield keeps getting mentioned in rumors for Smart. Fine. He's kind of pricey but would make sense because you get high volume shooting off the bench. No drop off when Tatum and Brown sit. That one still leaves us looking for a point guard, but would be reasonable given the need for a shooter to provide bench strength.

I'm still thinking Smart stays until summer, if not longer.

The team needs better balance with a point, a forward, and a shooter off the folding chairs. If the boys that write the checks are willing to go deep into the tax zone, then you still can talk about keeping Tatum, Brown, RWIII and Smart. If not, then it makes sense to shop Smart, and despite all the "oh no we wouldn't" whining and crying, you look at Brown next.

Great points and I agree with most of them. The last sentence mirrors the same discussion I had yesterday with dboss. You and I are thinking the same when it comes to Smart followed by Brown.
I do think CJ McCollum would be an upgrade, at least offensively. Defensively, I cant think of anyone out there they may be available that can even come close to what Marcus gives us on that end.

I feel he really brings more to this team than …let’s say CJ NcCollum. If we are going to hang our hat on being a good if not great defensive team, getting McCollum is giant step backwards. He is an awesome offensive player, I do not take that away from him. In fact, at one point when he and Lillard were both healthy last year, I felt they were one of the best backcourts in the West. (Of course Thompson was out when I made that statement)

Marcus has grown up this year more than we see on the floor. He realizes he is NOT a superstar shooter, and for the most part he has changed his game quite a bit. If you listen to mike Gorman he feels the same way. A huge Marcus fan, every night he has something positive to say about him. No one in the league does the things he does. I am not ready to say goodbye to him

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I feel he really brings more to this team than …let’s say CJ NcCollum. If we are going to hang our hat on being a good if not great defensive team, getting McCollum is giant step backwards.  He is an awesome offensive player, I do not take that away from him. In fact, at one point when he and Lillard were both healthy last year, I felt they were one of the best backcourts in the West.  (Of course Thompson was out when I made that statement)

Marcus has grown up this year more than we see on the floor.  He realizes he is NOT a superstar shooter, and for the most part he has changed his game quite a bit.  If you listen to mike Gorman he feels the same way.  A huge Marcus fan, every night he has something positive to say about him. No one in the league does the things he does.  I am not ready to say goodbye to him

Rosalie

At what point did Marcus realize he was not a superstar shooter? Maybe a couple of games ago. lol

We can do without his shooting but we cannot do without his defense and play making skills. IMO

I'm kind of with Bob on this one. 8f the idea is to build around the two J's, then isn't Smart, a consummate team player willing to do what it takes to win on a reasonable contract, exactly what we want? That said, also agree with other posters that Marcus could be an even better fit if the number of shots he takes were more proportional to his shooting percentages. Guys like Marcus Smart don't come along that often.

It makes no difference when or why Smart “saw the light”……he is just so darn valuable on the defensive end, I just would absolutely hate to see him go. I think they will do what they have to do to keep him.

I'm in the keep Smart (or,in my case, the Get Smart) club , with most of the commenters. I think more playing time for Pritchard and Nesmith is an imperative, which makes me more amenable to trading Schroder for something below value, but 2nd round picks is nonsense. Maybe he can bring back a shooter. I think I may be higher on Richardson than some others. He's a top-flight defender and a good decision maker with the ball.

No. You are not alone in the Richardson fan club. He is the kind of player you need on a second team, comes in, players defense, does not take tons of shots and is smart about the ones he takes. He is a plus in my eyes. My fear is that they will have to package him in any deal, which would lessen that second team. He is a good locker room guy too

RosalieTCeltics wrote:No. You are not alone in the Richardson fan club.  He is the kind of player you need on a second team, comes in, players defense, does not take tons of shots and is smart about the ones he takes. He is a plus in my eyes.  My fear is that they will have to package him in any deal, which would lessen that second team.  He is a good locker room guy too

                                                                 I'm with you, Rosalie

Even though things moved very quickly in the 2007-08 season, remember Rondo was all over the news at first if he was the right guy for this new Big 3, then he couldn't shoot free throws, then he couldn't hit shots, etc.  But I'm pretty sure you can look up in the rafters and see Banner 17, 2008.  So he figured it out and was always on 3D watch every game.  He never scored a ton of points but his assists and rebounds were for the most part double digits consistently.  

Marcus is a very, very intelligent player.  I noticed every time the cameras panned to him after we had scored on the other end he is always barking to his teammates about getting into defensive position.

Again, we're now in that very critical period for this season.  We've kicked the can down the court for the last season and a half and you can argue for the last 5- seasons.  We've seen two games in a row this week that have our ears up like you see when your dog wakes up from a dead sleep in the middle of the night and thinks he/she hears something.  

It's also the same glass ceiling looming.  We've won two games in a row before numerous times.  We've just not been able to get past it and go on a real win streak.  Teams that play .500 ball don't win or lose more than 3 games at a time.  These games up to 2/10 and then through to the All Star Break are perfect for us warming up the microscope and zooming in.  The stars are literally aligning. This run of games will tell us all we need to know about this season.  IMHBAO, if we're going to make the real run for the playoffs, we have to go 9-3 BAM with these games.  We're 2-0 right now.  Great start.  Can't get to 12-0 unless you go 2-0.  Mathematically impossible, I will attest.  And by real run, I mean steamrolling to the top 3 and scaring the crap out of everybody in sight where we're the headlines and not whether James Harden is crying about his career with no trophies or Russell Westbrook going through a slump.  These last two games have our attention, especially with MS changing his ways more toward facilitator like old Rondo and the two J's apparently clicking on all cylinders with RWIII doubling up nightly in scoring and rebounding.  

We get to watch it all unfold nightly.  If management is going to say anything, they will have made their statement by 2/10.  Whether they do or don't, they will be out of the picture after 2/10 for this season.

Rondo would never give up an opportunity to score bunnies, a lot like Menace does with the layups.  Remember how Rondo would jump off the non-dominant foot with his layups?!
That would piss the defense off because they knew they had him guarded going to the basket where they were going to block his shot or foul him since he couldn't shoot free throws. Most times it turned into an And 1. MS would and will be smart to use his points made with that strategy.  He will be left open because when both J's are on, it's a thing of beauty watching this team play.  

Anyway, tonight's coming whether we're ready or not.  

Go Celtics!!

db